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US midterms could spark Bitcoin and stock rallies

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Crypto Breaking News

Geopolitical frictions and a shifting macro backdrop are sharpening focus on what could emerge as a tipping point for crypto and broader risk assets: the US midterm elections. In a March 11, 2026 market commentary, Binance Research surveys how election cycles historically fed rebounds in equities and Bitcoin, suggesting the upcoming vote might unlock a constructive window for risk-on assets. The report flags that the 12 months after past midterms have seen the S&P 500 rise by about 19% on average, while Bitcoin delivered roughly a 54% gain across the three post-midterm years on record. With the midterms slated for November 3, 2026, the study frames the coming year as a potentially pivotal phase for markets trading around political uncertainty.

Key takeaways

  • Historical post-midterm performance shows a potential upside for risk assets, with the S&P 500 up ~19% on average and Bitcoin up ~54% over the three post-midterm years in prior cycles.
  • Bitcoin has experienced negative returns during several midterm years (example declines: 2014, 2018, 2022), but the pattern in subsequent years has generally been a rebound.
  • The near-term direction hinges on geopolitics, notably US-Israel-Iran tensions, with oil prices a potential pressure point if energy supply is disrupted.
  • The energy market narrative was reinforced by an emergency energy stock release of 400 million barrels, the largest coordinated drawdown on record.
  • Market participants appear to be in a wait-and-see phase, awaiting clearer directional signals once election outcomes are known.

Tickers mentioned: $BTC

Sentiment: Neutral

Price impact: Positive. The historical pattern of post-midterm rebounds in both equities and Bitcoin suggests a potential uplift in risk assets once political uncertainty subsides.

Trading idea (Not Financial Advice): Hold. Investors may want to wait for clearer post-election directional cues and macro signals before taking sizable new positions.

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Market context: The narrative arcs around the midterms intersect with macro risk sentiment, regulatory discourse, and energy-market dynamics, all of which can shape liquidity and appetite for crypto assets in the near term.

Why it matters

The Binance Research framework emphasizes that the political risk hurdle commonly cleared after election outcomes has historically unlocked a more robust risk-on regime. In practical terms, if the 2026 midterms resolve with a clearer policy outlook, traders could see renewed bid activity across both traditional markets and crypto. The historical lens does not guarantee future moves, but it provides a reference for how sentiment has tended to shift when political ambiguity diminishes.

From a trader’s vantage point, the divergence between headline risk and market mechanics is notable. Even as Bitcoin (CRYPTO: BTC) has flirted with key levels and traded within ranges shaped by liquidity flows, the broader message of the Binance analysis is that the cycle often accelerates once electoral uncertainty recedes. In prior midterm years, Bitcoin’s trajectory has been punctuated by sharp corrections during the year itself, followed by significant recoveries in the ensuing periods. That pattern could inform risk budgeting and timing considerations for funds that aim to participate in the rebound without overexposure to interim volatility.

Oil and energy markets add another layer of complexity. As geopolitical tensions intensify, crude prices have shown sensitivity to supply expectations. Recent data suggest the market could spike further if disruptions endure, a scenario that tends to weigh on risk assets in the short run even as longer-term cycles remain dependent on policy clarity and liquidity dynamics. A one-day spike to the vicinity of $95 per barrel framed the current stress, underscoring how energy risk can spill over into equities and crypto markets.

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In parallel, market infrastructure signals have pointed to a broader risk-off posture in the near term. The energy-release maneuver by international authorities, described as the largest-ever coordinated drawdown, adds a layer of supply-side management that could temper volatility in the energy complex—but it does not eliminate the risk of further macro shocks. Analysts cautioned that continued geopolitical escalation could keep risk assets under pressure, at least until a clearer post-election framework emerges. For readers interested in the on-the-ground links to these developments, recent reporting from Reuters outlined the energy dynamics and the rhetoric around price stability amid the conflict.

Despite the near-term headwinds, the longer historical arc highlighted by Binance Research remains relevant: the period after the election and the associated resolution of political uncertainty has historically produced meaningful rallies. The message is not to extrapolate a foolproof blueprint, but to recognize that policy clarity can reframe risk appetite. Bitcoin’s own history of midterm-year drawdowns, followed by rebounds, adds a layer of complexity but also a potential pathway for investors who can weather the interim noise. To see a related compilation of market context including the energy shock and its ripple effects, readers can review the linked analyses and the energy market data sources cited in the coverage, including the market commentary that anchors these observations.

For a quick snapshot of the broader narrative in motion, a concise explainer video on market dynamics related to this cycle can be found here: Video discussion.

The analysis arrives as markets enter a period of heightened attention ahead of the November 3, 2026 vote, when the 120th Congress will take shape and set the tone for policy and regulatory signals in the year ahead. While the near term may ride a roller-coaster of headlines, the data from prior cycles provides a reference point for investors assessing whether a recovery window could be opening for equities and digital assets alike. The key takeaway: the post-election horizon could be the most constructive phase of the cycle, provided geopolitical tensions do not diverge into a sustained risk-off regime before the dust settles.

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The crosscurrents at play—geopolitics, energy stability, and the timing of policy clarification—mean that market moves could be as much about risk sentiment and liquidity flows as about fundamentals. In the coming months, traders will be watching for progress in diplomatic channels, oil market signals, and any regulatory developments that could influence market structure or capital flows into crypto. The interplay of these factors will help determine whether the long-hoped-for recovery accelerates or remains restrained by ongoing uncertainty.

As with all such analyses, the caveat remains: past performance is not a guarantee of future results. However, the framework outlined by Binance Research provides a structured lens to interpret how the upcoming midterms might align with broader macro and crypto-market rhythms. The next few quarters will be telling as investors weigh the odds of a meaningful reset against continued geopolitical volatility and policy debates that will shape the market landscape for the remainder of the year.

What to watch next

  • November 3, 2026 — US midterm elections determine the composition of the 120th Congress and influence policy signals for the year ahead.
  • Post-election period — watch for any substantive shifts in regulatory discourse that could affect crypto market structure and liquidity.
  • Geopolitical developments in the Middle East — escalation or de-escalation can impact energy prices and risk sentiment.
  • Official energy-market actions — monitor further commentary on energy security and any additional emergency stock management outcomes.
  • Market commentary updates — ongoing analyses that correlate election outcomes with volatility and liquidity in crypto markets.

Sources & verification

  • Binance Research, Weekly Market Commentary (March 11, 2026) — historical post-midterm performance data and interpretation.
  • Reuters reporting on energy disruptions and price implications related to Middle East tensions.
  • Trading Economics data on crude oil price movements and daily price spikes.
  • International Energy Agency announcements on emergency stock releases (largest coordinated drawdown).
  • Election date and political timeline for the November 3, 2026 midterms.

Post-midterm dynamics could reshape crypto and risk assets

The central premise is that the political fog surrounding election outcomes has historically been a wind at the back of risk assets once it lifts. Binance Research’s synthesis shows a pattern of strength following periods of uncertainty, with the S&P 500 and Bitcoin delivering memorable advances in the year or years after midterm cycles. That pattern does not imply a guaranteed rally, but it offers a framework for considering how a calmer political horizon might influence price action across markets that have become increasingly interlinked in recent years.

In practice, the near-term trajectory will be colored by geopolitics and macro data arrivals. The immediate risk premiums tied to the US-Israel-Iran dynamic could push energy prices higher, which tends to compress risk appetite in the short run. Yet if the election outcomes resolve in a way that reduces political risk, liquidity could improve and traders may reallocate toward risk assets, including digital currencies. Bitcoin’s own history in midterm years—marked by episodic declines followed by longer-term recoveries—adds nuance to how investors should position themselves during this transition window. The historical signal is not a guarantee, but it is a lens for weighing potential outcomes as the cycle evolves.

Market participants will also be watching for any policy shifts or legislative milestones that could affect the crypto market structure, such as regulatory proposals or framework updates that impact market access and capital flows. The energy-market backdrop, with its flashpoints and emergency stock actions, will continue to feed volatility but also to shape the tempo of risk-taking. In a landscape where liquidity and risk sentiment are closely tethered to macro and geopolitical developments, the post-midterm period could offer a clearer directional signal for traders, investors, and builders navigating the crypto ecosystem.

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Bitcoin for Corporations Returns to the Bitcoin Conference

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Against this backdrop, Bitcoin 2026 — now expected to surpass 40,000 attendees — is the definitive gathering for anyone serious about the future of money. With 500+ speakers, multiple world-class stages, and programming spanning Bitcoin fundamentals, enterprise adoption, mining, energy, AI, policy, and culture, the conference brings every corner of the Bitcoin ecosystem together under one roof. The BFC Symposium anchors the institutional conversation at the center of that ecosystem.

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Optimism Developer Op Labs Cuts 20% of Staff in Effeciency Push

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Optimism Developer Op Labs Cuts 20% of Staff in Effeciency Push

Op Labs’ CEO said the move was not about finances, and that the firm has “years of runway.”

The development company behind Ethereum Layer 2 network Optimism has laid off 20 employees — what appears to be approximately 20% of its team. The news was announced by OP Labs CEO and Optimism co-founder Jing Wang in an X post today, March 12, and included a screenshot of an internal Slack message Wang had sent to staff earlier in the day.

“This decision reflects a narrowing of our focus, not our runway,” Wang wrote on X.

In a Slack message to what appears to be Op Labs’ 102 employees, Wang said that the decision is “not about finances” but rather about “doing fewer things well, making decisions faster, and reducing coordination overhead.”

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Op Labs’ CEO also noted in the Slack messaged that OP Labs “is well capitalized with years of runway.”

The OP token fell slightly on the news, down 2.4% in the past 24 hours, per The Defiant’s price page, while the broader market is flat today.

Last month, Coinbase’s Base — which was reportedly contributing an estimated 97% of Superchain revenue — announced it was departing the OP Stack for a self-managed codebase, sending OP down 26% in a single day. Wang acknowledged the blow but said evolving the business model was overdue.

On the product side, Optimism launched OP Enterprise in January and also passed a governance vote to direct 50% of Superchain revenue toward OP token buybacks.

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BTC showing safe-haven signs, holding up as stocks tumble on macro fears

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BTC showing safe-haven signs, holding up as stocks tumble on macro fears

Safe-haven asset?

The action is volatile, but bitcoin for the moment is continuing to hold just above the $70,000 even as other risk assets sell off across the board.

Helping to send stocks lower, crude oil prices are up more than 10% and nearing $100 per barrel amid concerns about the Hormuz Strait — a key shipping route for oil tankers.

“Stopping Iran is of more concern to me than oil prices,” said President Trump on Thursday. Meanwhile, in his first public statement since being appointed Iran’s supreme leader, Mojtaba Khamenei said the Strait of Hormuz should remain closed.

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“It’s becoming clear to everyone that the Strait is far from under control and potentially impossible to control without severe concessions to Iran, boots on the ground, or huge military risks,” said Quinn Thompson, founder of Lekker Capital. “Things get dicey from here and when backs are up against the wall, volatility increases.”

Nearing the noon hour on the east coast, the Nasdaq is near session lows, down 1.6% and S&P 500 is off 1.2%.

Wiped from the front pages thanks to Iran, but still of major concern are continuing worries about a collapse in private credit. Morgan Stanley (MS) was the latest in a growing series of financial giants to cap redemptions — this one at its $8 billion North Haven Private Income Fund. Shares of Morgan Stanley were down 4% on Thursday, leading declines in the financial sector. JPMorgan, Citigroup, and Wells Fargo were lower by closer to 3%.

In private equity, KKR, Apollo Global, and Ares Management were all sporting 3% to 4% declines.

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Gold, meanwhile, was down 0.6% and the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield was higher by three basis points to 4.23%.

Oil drives markets

Oil has become the main driver of crypto prices, according to CoinShares’ head of research, James Butterfill. “The dominant variable in global asset pricing is no longer the labour market. It is oil — and the geopolitical crisis underpinning it,” he said in a note. He argued that the government’s most recent U.S. payroll report, which missed expectations, would’ve normally pushed markets to price in faster rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, but the reaction was muted as investors instead focused on rising energy costs tied to the conflict in the Middle East.

Despite the pullback on Thursday, bitcoin has remained relatively resilient despite rising geopolitical tensions and broader market uncertainty, holding near the $70,000 level even as investors reassess global risks.

The reason could be that large investors are increasingly seeking more than simple exposure to bitcoin’s price, according to Dom Harz, co-founder of layer-2 blockchain BOB. “Institutions want more than exposure to bitcoin and are increasingly looking for the infrastructure designed to unlock Bitcoin’s financial utility,” he wrote in a note, pointing to growing interest in bitcoin-based financial applications that could allow users to spend, save and earn using the network.

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Ethereum price forecast: bulls hold $2K support amid CEX outflows

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XLM bounces from $0.15 lows, but bears remain in control
Ethereum price is near $2,000 as whales buy more and exchange outflows increase amid fresh conviction, but what does it mean for ETH price
  • Ethereum price hovered just above $2,000 as whales moved ETH off exchanges.
  • Large holder activity sees Ethereum exchange balances fall by over 74,000 ETH this week.
  • Bulls could eye $2,188 and potentially $2,600 amid a technical breakout.

Ethereum’s price is holding near the $2,000 level, with bulls eyeing fresh moves above what many analysts see as a crucial psychological level.

The top altcoin traded within a tight range on Thursday, as Bitcoin showed resilience near $70,000.

However, ETH could test recent highs above the level, with whales signaling fresh confidence through notable exchange withdrawals.

ETH whales move coins off exchanges

Details shared by the smartmoney on-chain platform Lookonchain on March 12 indicate that Ethereum whale activity is picking up new momentum.

The Lookonchain X account spotlighted two of these large holder moves, with a newly created wallet address withdrawing 11,629 ETH worth about $23.7 million from Binance.

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This transfer is critical as fresh wallets signal new entrants positioning for long-term appreciation.

Notably, Lookonchain also spotted a 63,324 ETH transfer by the whale address 0x8E34. According to the details, this bullish move, worth about $131.2 million, was from the crypto exchange Kraken.

What does this mean?

Whale activity had recently subsided as bears threatened to annihilate bulls amid the Iran war.

However, with analysts projecting a likely scenario where crypto rallies in the coming months, exchange outflows are on the rise again.

The two whales have, for instance, moved over 74,950 ETH worth roughly $155 million from centralised exchanges.

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Such large-scale shifts can reduce sell-side pressure as fewer coins are available on CEXs compared to historical averages. This relates to an indicator called the scarcity index, which, as the data shows, has shifted positively.

The upbeat outlook for the altcoin comes as Ethereum spot exchange-traded funds recorded a second consecutive day of net inflows with over $57 million on March 11, 2026.

Net inflows increased from $12.6 million on Tuesday, ending a three-day outflow streak.

US spot ETH ETFs are also on track for another week of positive flows, with ETH price holding near the $2,000 level through this period.

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Ethereum price analysis

Bulls have struggled since losing the $3,000 mark earlier in the year, and at current levels, hover about 30% down year-to-date.

Macro and geopolitical headwinds have largely allowed bears to dominate. If BTC sinks amid the Iran war sentiment, Ethereum would likely plummet alongside it.

Yet, despite overall sentiment, prices have held within the $1,800-$2,100 range in recent weeks, and $2,000 has emerged as a key short-term pivot mark.

ETH presents a bullish outlook amid its consolidation around this level, with on-chain metrics such as stablecoin inflows, ETFs, and declining exchange reserves pointing to a potential uptick.

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Meanwhile, technical indicators such as the Relative Strength Index (RSI) and Moving Average Convergence Divergence strengthen this perspective.

The daily chart shows the RSI hovers near 50, neutral but trending upward. The MACD boasts a bullish outlook with the histogram bars green and expanding.

Ethereum Price
Ethereum price chart by TradingView

If prices climb to the channel resistance, bulls may test the 50-day moving average at $2,188. The 100-day moving average provides a dynamic supply wall just above $2,600.

However, the moving averages are trending lower. A close below $1,950 might allow for a bearish retest of $1,800 and potentially YTD lows of $1,740.

ETH changed hands at around $2,057 at the time of writing.

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Pump.fun Is Solana First $1B Revenue App: Expansion to Ethereum Incoming

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Pump.fun Is Solana First $1B Revenue App: Expansion to Ethereum Incoming

Pump.fun has officially generated over $1 billion in cumulative revenue, becoming the first application in Solana history to cross the ten-figure milestone.

The viral memecoin launchpad, which pioneered the bonding curve model to deter rug pulls, has now outpaced nearly every DeFi protocol in crypto by fee generation.

But the revenue record is already secondary to a potentially larger shift. Subdomain registrations for ethereum.pump.fun, base.pump.fun, and monad.pump.fun have been identified on-chain, signaling that an aggressive cross-chain expansion is imminent.

Source: Dune

Since its launch on January 19, 2024, Pump.fun has facilitated the creation of around 12 million tokens. At the height of the memecoin frenzy in late 2024, the platform accounted for approximately 62% of all daily transactions on the Solana network.

The platform’s revenue engine is relentless. By April 2025, total fees hit 1.52 million SOL. Daily revenue consistently hovers around $1 million. This volume has made Pump.fun the de facto ‘Solana revenue’ driver, overshadowing legacy DeFi applications.

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However, the metrics also reveal the extreme volatility of the product. Data suggests 98.5% of tokens launched on the platform fail to complete their bonding curve, effectively going to zero. Despite this, user retention remains high, with lifetime unique users exceeding 22 million.

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What the Subdomain Registrations Actually Reveal About Pump.fun’s Next Move

The discovery of formatted subdomains for Ethereum, Base, and Monad is not a definitive roadmap, but it is a strong signal of intent.

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Expansion to the Base network represents the most logical immediate step. Base has cultivated a thriving retail user base similar to Solana’s, but currently lacks a single dominant launchpad with Pump.fun’s brand recognition.

A successful deployment here would unify the fractured memecoin liquidity currently spread across smaller forks.

The Ethereum subdomain points to a different strategy. While high gas fees historically deterred memecoin trading on mainnet, Wall Street is choosing Ethereum as the backbone of institutional DeFi, which could allow Pump.fun to tap into deeper capital markets.

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How Pump.fun Expanding From Solana to Ethereum and Base Changes the Launchpad Wars

If Pump.fun successfully ports its UI and bonding curve mechanics to EVM chains, it instantly threatens native competitors.

On Base, protocols like Clanker have gained traction, but they lack the massive war chest, fueled by $1.3 billion in ICO and private funding, that Pump.fun now commands.

Security remains the primary wildcard in this expansion. The memecoin launchpad sector is notoriously fragile.

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Recently, the Bonk.fun website was hijacked by a malicious actor, draining user wallets and highlighting the risks inherent in these high-velocity platforms. Expanding to new chains multiplies these attack vectors significantly.

If Pump.fun can maintain security while deploying on multiple chains, it effectively universalizes the ‘launchpad’ experience, turning it into a chain-agnostic utility rather than a feature exclusive to Solana.

Discover: The best crypto to buy now

The post Pump.fun Is Solana First $1B Revenue App: Expansion to Ethereum Incoming appeared first on Cryptonews.

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Lido Launches Its First Stablecoin Vault

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Lido Launches Its First Stablecoin Vault

The new product, EarnUSD, lets users earn yield on their USDC and USDT.

Lido, DeFi’s largest liquid staking protocol by total value locked, has launched EarnUSD, its first stablecoin vault, according to a press release shared with The Defiant.

The new product lets users deposit and earn yield on USDC and USDT. The vault allocates capital automatically across Ethereum-based USD-denominated strategies, including on-chain lending markets, real-world asset (RWA) integrations, and structured positions, per the release.

The move marks a broader focus for the protocol, which is known for being the largest ETH staking provider, with over 8.7 million ETH currently staked.

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The launch restructures Lido Earn — which the firm says has attracted almost $250 million in deposits since launching in September 2025 — into two vaults: EarnETH and EarnUSD.

EarnETH, meanwhile, accepts ETH, WETH, and stETH, and distributes deposits across major DeFi protocols including Aave, Uniswap, and Morpho.

The launch of Lido’s stablecoin vault comes as stablecoin supply on Ethereum holds out over $160 billion, per data from DefiLlama. This represents over half over total USD stablecoin supply across all networks, currently at $314.9 billion.

Regulatory momentum — namely the GENIUS Act in the U.S.— has helped drive growth in the sector over the past year.

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“Stablecoins are a fundamental part of DeFi, and until now we weren’t serving those users,” said Marin Tvrdić, Earn Partnerships at the Lido Ecosystem Foundation. “That changes today with EarnUSD.”

As part of the launch, the Lido DAO has voted to allocate $5 million from its treasury into the vaults alongside users, on the same terms. If a vault suffers losses, the DAO’s position absorbs them first, according to the release.

The move follows a DAO proposal from December that outlined a $60 million budget to expand Lido’s product offering beyond liquid staking, as reported by The Defiant.

Lido currently holds around $19 billion in TVL, according to DefiLlama, making it the largest liquid staking protocol in DeFi. The vast majority of its TVL is on Ethereum.

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Lido’s TVL is down over 50% from its all-time high of over $42 billion reached last August amid ETH’s rally to a new all-time high, and increased regulatory clarity.

This article was written with the assistance of AI workflows. All our stories are curated, edited and fact-checked by a human.

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Eightco Holdings (ORBS) Stock Rallies 22% Following $125M Investment from Major Institutions

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ORBS Stock Card

Key Highlights

  • On March 12, 2026, Eightco Holdings (ORBS) announced $125 million in fresh institutional funding commitments.
  • Bitmine (BMNR) is leading the round with $75 million, while ARK Invest and Payward (Kraken’s parent company) each contributed $25 million.
  • Chairman Dan Ives is departing the role; Tom Lee from Bitmine will join the company’s board of directors.
  • Earlier in March, ORBS deployed $52.5 million into OpenAI equity and $25 million into MrBeast’s Beast Industries.
  • Shares of ORBS climbed as high as 22% during Thursday’s trading session, reaching approximately 99 cents.

On March 12, 2026, Eightco Holdings (ORBS) revealed it had secured $125 million in new institutional capital, triggering a sharp rally in its share price during early market hours.


ORBS Stock Card
Eightco Holdings Inc., ORBS

The funding round features a substantial $75 million investment from Bitmine (BMNR), the digital asset firm led by cryptocurrency advocate Tom Lee. Additionally, ARK Invest—managed by renowned investor Cathie Wood—and Payward, which operates the Kraken cryptocurrency exchange, each pledged $25 million to the initiative.

During Thursday’s trading, ORBS shares climbed to 99 cents, marking an approximately 22% gain for the session. This represents a significant recovery for the company, whose stock had previously declined more than 90% over recent months.

The newly raised funds are designated for ORBS’ expansion efforts in artificial intelligence, blockchain technology infrastructure, and digital consumer-facing platforms.

Alongside the funding announcement, the company revealed a leadership transition. Dan Ives, the prominent technology analyst from Wedbush Securities who assumed the chairman role just last September, is relinquishing the position. Tom Lee will now occupy a board seat at ORBS.

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Brett Winton, who serves as Chief Futurist at ARK Invest, has been appointed as an advisory board member.

In a public statement, Ives described the incoming leadership configuration as “the perfect team” to advance the company’s strategic objectives.

Last January, Barron’s featured a comprehensive cover investigation into Ives’s dual responsibilities and possible conflicts arising from his simultaneous roles as company chairman and equity analyst at Wedbush. When contacted Thursday, Wedbush representatives declined to provide commentary.

Strategic Capital Deployment in OpenAI and Beast Industries

Prior to Thursday’s funding announcement, ORBS had already begun deploying significant capital into strategic opportunities. On March 6, the firm invested approximately $52.5 million to obtain economic interests in OpenAI equity.

Four days later, on March 10, ORBS committed roughly $25 million to Beast Industries—the corporate entity backing internet personality MrBeast—with $7 million of that amount scheduled for funding within the next 60 days.

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The company also maintains existing positions in Worldcoin, a project co-created by OpenAI’s CEO Sam Altman, as well as holdings in Ethereum.

According to company disclosures, the OpenAI and Beast Industries transactions represent ORBS’ “initial strategic investments,” indicating additional deals may be forthcoming.

Wall Street Perspective

The latest analyst assessment for ORBS stock stands at a Hold rating, accompanied by a price objective of $1.50.

Eightco currently operates with a market capitalization hovering around $160 million, while average daily trading volume reaches approximately 4.6 million shares.

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Through its recent funding activities and investment deployments, the company has established simultaneous positions across OpenAI, Beast Industries, Worldcoin, and Ethereum—positioning itself at the intersection of artificial intelligence and blockchain technology.

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Can ETH Finally Break $2,150 After Holding Key Support?

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Can ETH Finally Break $2,150 After Holding Key Support?

Ethereum is trying to build a base, but the general picture has not changed enough to call for a real trend reversal yet. The asset is holding above the February floor, and that matters, yet ETH is still trading beneath major overhead resistance, which leaves the market in a recovery attempt rather than a confirmed bullish phase.

Ethereum Price Analysis: The Daily Chart

The daily chart still leans bearish. ETH remains below the 100-day and 200-day moving averages, and the broader sequence from the prior months continues to reflect a market that has been making lower highs inside a descending structure. The violent selloff in early February damaged the chart significantly, and even though the panic has cooled, buyers have not done enough to repair the higher timeframe setup.

What stands out now is the market’s ability to defend the $1,800 to $1,700 demand area. That zone has become the line separating stabilization from renewed weakness. On the upside, ETH keeps running into resistance near $2,150 first, then the $2,400 supply region, while the larger bearish pivot still sits much higher near $2,800. So for now, this remains a market trying to rebound within a bigger downtrend, not one that has escaped it.

ETH/USDT 4-Hour Chart

The 4-hour chart is more constructive. ETH has been carving out a series of firmer lows since the late February bottom, and the rising trendline underneath price shows that buyers are gradually stepping in on dips instead of allowing another immediate breakdown. Momentum has also improved, with RSI recovering and staying in a healthier range compared to the weakness seen during the last leg down.

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Still, the buyers have one obvious problem: they are not breaking the ceiling. The $2,150 level has repeatedly capped the upside, and until that barrier gives way, the recent advance looks more like controlled consolidation than a fresh impulsive breakout. If that level is reclaimed, ETH could quickly rotate toward the next supply band around $2,300 to $2,400. If not, the market likely remains stuck in a sideways grind above support.

On-Chain Analysis

The active addresses chart paints a more nuanced picture than pure price action. Network activity expanded aggressively into the recent period, which suggests Ethereum was still seeing solid user engagement even as the market structure weakened. That kind of divergence can be important because it shows the chain itself did not completely lose participation during the drawdown.

However, the latest drop in active addresses also shows that participation has cooled with price stress, so the metric is not giving a clean bullish signal yet. In other words, sentiment is no longer washed out, but it is not convincingly strong either. The takeaway is that underlying activity offers some support for a medium term recovery thesis, though price still needs to validate it by pushing through resistance.

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Avalanche’s business chief says crypto must grow up and solve real problems

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Avalanche’s business chief says crypto must grow up and solve real problems

What he’s saying: Nahas told Sam Ewen on CoinDesk’s Gen C that Avalanche is a business tool, not a crypto product. He said companies want tailored blockchain infrastructure that fits compliance, geography and operational needs.

Nahas compared Avalanche’s model to WordPress, arguing businesses should be able to “spin up” a blockchain the way they spin up websites.

He said Avalanche’s strategy has shifted from broad crypto narratives toward “built for business” and embedded finance.

The goal, according to Nahas, is to help companies either make new revenue through digitization or cut costs through more efficient digital rails.

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Why it matters: The discussion shows how one major crypto network is trying to distance itself from speculative token mania and pitch itself as enterprise infrastructure.

Nahas said much of crypto has been “technology for technology’s sake,” with too few products solving concrete customer problems.

He argued that businesses do not want to force their operations onto a shared general-purpose chain if they need privacy, specific fee structures or regulatory controls.

That stance reflects a broader industry push to hide the underlying blockchain and sell outcomes instead: faster payments, tokenized assets and new customer experiences.

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Closer look: Nahas said Avalanche’s former “subnets” model, now rebranded as Avalanche L1s, is designed to let businesses run sovereign blockchains with their own validators and rules.

He said Avalanche has more than 70 live L1s and is targeting roughly 200 by the end of the year.

He pointed to use cases including tokenized equities, FIFA digital products, deed records in Bergen County, New Jersey, and tokenized asset programs in Japan.

Nahas said Avalanche’s combined L1 activity is processing about 40 million daily transactions, though those transactions are spread across many chains rather than concentrated on one flagship network.

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Reading between the lines: Nahas was blunt that crypto’s critics are not entirely wrong. He said too much of the industry has relied on speculation, weak business models and short-term headlines.

He said “the token was the product” for many projects, which in his view is not a durable business model.

Nahas argued the sector still has not produced enough true “killer apps” that only blockchain can enable, though he suggested stablecoins may be emerging as one of them.

He also said enterprise partners are already in crypto, but often do not like what they see when projects focus more on announcements than execution.

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What comes next: Nahas said clearer rules could unlock more institutional activity, even if crypto’s more libertarian wing resists regulation.

He said many companies want to build with blockchain now but will not move until they know where the legal line is.

On AI, he said blockchain-based payment rails could become important for agentic systems and micropayments, pointing to Avalanche partner Kite AI as an example.

His broader argument: the winning crypto platforms will be the ones that act less like ideology and more like dependable business infrastructure.

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Chart Formation Signals a Potential Explosive Rally Ahead

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TAO RSI


What’s next for TAO after reaching a one-month peak?

Bittensor (TAO) has pumped by double digits over the past seven days, with some analysts expecting this could be the beginning of a much more substantial surge.

At the same time, certain indicators suggest a short-term correction is also a plausible option.

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Further Gains Ahead?

As of this writing, TAO trades at around $213 (per CoinGecko), making it the top daily performer among the biggest 100 cryptocurrencies after rising 9% over the period. Its market capitalization soared past the $2 billion psychological mark, thus flipping well-known altcoins such as OKB, ASTER, and others.

The renowned analyst Ali Martinez noted TAO’s strong performance, spotting the potential formation of an Adam & Eve pattern on its price chart. It consists of two bottoms: a sharp “Adam” dip and a rounded “Eve” plunge. The structure is generally considered bullish, as it suggests sellers have lost momentum and could be replaced by buyers. Martinez estimated that in this case, TAO’s price could soar to as high as $270.

X user GalaxyTrading is also quite optimistic. Recently, they described TAO as “the clearest 10x coin for the next altcoin run phase.” The analyst argued that the asset could emerge as a dominant figure in the crypto space thanks to the development of Artificial Intelligence.

ZAYK Charts chipped in, too. Earlier this week, they assumed that Bittensor’s native token was moving within a falling channel, predicting that a breakout above roughly $200 could open the door to a possible 100% increase to almost $400.

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Moving South is Also an Option

Despite the prevailing optimism among traders and analysts, some technical indicators suggest TAO’s valuation could tumble in the near future.

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The asset’s Relative Strength Index (RSI), which measures the speed and magnitude of recent price changes, has risen above 70. This signals that the token is overbought and could be on the verge of a short-term pullback. The index runs from 0 to 100, and conversely, ratios below 30 are typically interpreted as buying opportunities.

TAO RSITAO RSI
TAO RSI, Source: RSI Hunter

The next factor on the list is TAO’s exchange netflow. CoinGlass’s data show that over the past few days, inflows have exceeded outflows, indicating that investors have been shifting from self-custody to centralized platforms. This is often viewed as a pre-sale step.

TAO Exchange Netflow
TAO Exchange Netflow, Source: CoinGlass

 

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