Prediction market firms such as Polymarket and Kalshi have a new set of guidelines for U.S. operation, with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission laying out initial guidance and a proposed permanent rule Thursday for what the agency called “a proven source of reliable information for news media, sports leagues, financial institutions, and everyday Americans.”

The agency had once been a legal adversary of the prediction markets, warning that certain betting ran afoul of derivatives laws and that the CFTC couldn’t function as a global policy force combating fraud and manipulation in political markets all over the world. But under Chairman Mike Selig, the CFTC abandoned its old legal fight and embraced the firms. It’s now issued a non-binding staff advisory to the prediction market firms regulated by the CFTC as “designated contract markets,” and started a binding rule process.

“This begins the process of new rulemaking grounded in a rational and coherent interpretation of the Commodity Exchange Act, while reassuring the American people that the CFTC will exercise its exclusive jurisdiction over prediction markets,” Selig said of the regulatory process which is starting with what’s known as an “advanced notice of proposed rulemaking.”

Selig, who can operate as the sole authority at the regulator because he’s the only member of what’s meant to be a five-person commission, quickly moved to push the new policy effort. He’s also been waging a rhetorical campaign against state regulators who claim authority over sports betting, saying his agency is the primary regulator of that space. Numerous states sued prediction market providers alleging they’re also subject to their jurisdiction, at least for sports-related bets, and Selig filed a recent court brief arguing the CFTC holds sole jurisdiction.

The CFTC’s new advisory lays out how DCMs — a list that includes Kalshi, Coinbase and Polymarket — should get trading products cleared with the regulator and it says the firms should only handle “trading contracts that are not readily susceptible to manipulation.”

It also noted that the firms that are listing sports contracts should engage in “communications with such relevant sports governing bodies or authorities when developing terms and conditions, compliance and market oversight programs for sports-related events contracts.”

The agency’s rulemaking initiative, though, is much more complex and will likely take months to put into place. At this stage, the CFTC is seeking public comments about how it should proceed. The next step will be a more fleshed-out proposal, and then a final rule, each a lengthy process under administrative law.

The agency has put a 45-day deadline on comments, which is relatively fast, suggesting a speedy timeline.

The prediction markets are platforms in which users can buy and sell contracts that bet on a typically binary outcome, such as the winner of a sporting contest or the victor in an election. Selig has argued that the process belongs in the hands of the derivatives watchdog in the same way that futures contracts do.

The initial rulemaking document underlines that firms engaging in this business have a legal responsibility to police their activity for market manipulation, as evidenced recently by Kalshi’s announcement it had punished a couple of its customers.

The rulemaking text noted “the number of applications for DCM registration has more than doubled over the past year, largely from entities that are interested primarily, or exclusively, in operating prediction markets.” At this stage, the 32-page document poses a series of questions to help outline what direction the more concrete proposal should take.

Read More: Senate Democrats push prediction market limits, including banning bets on war, death

TLDR

• The CFTC issued a staff advisory and launched a formal rulemaking process for prediction market platforms.
• Chairman Mike Selig said the agency will exercise exclusive jurisdiction over prediction markets in the United States.
• The regulator set a 45-day deadline for public comments on its advanced notice of proposed rulemaking.
• The advisory requires designated contract markets to list contracts that are not readily susceptible to manipulation.
• The CFTC directed platforms offering sports contracts to communicate with relevant sports governing bodies.

The Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) has issued new guidance for prediction market firms operating in the United States. The agency released a staff advisory and launched a formal rulemaking process. The move follows a shift in policy under Chairman Mike Selig and sets a 45-day deadline for public comment.

CFTC Outlines New Framework for Prediction Markets

Chairman Mike Selig directed the agency to publish a non-binding staff advisory for designated contract markets. The advisory explains how platforms must seek approval for new trading products. It also states that firms should list contracts that are not readily susceptible to manipulation.

Selig said, “This begins the process of new rulemaking grounded in a rational and coherent interpretation of the Commodity Exchange Act.” He added that the agency will exercise its exclusive jurisdiction over prediction markets. The commission issued the document as an advanced notice of proposed rulemaking and invited public input.

The CFTC stated that the number of applications for DCM registration has more than doubled in the past year. It said many applicants seek to operate prediction market platforms. The 32-page document presents questions that will guide a future proposal and later, a final rule.

The agency set a 45-day window for public comments on the proposal. That timeline suggests the regulator wants to move the process forward quickly. The next stage will include a detailed proposal followed by a final rule under administrative law.

Polymarket and Kalshi Adjust to New Oversight

The advisory applies to DCMs that include Kalshi, Coinbase, and Polymarket. The CFTC directed these firms to follow clear procedures when listing new contracts. It also reminded them of their legal duty to monitor trading activity for manipulation.

Kalshi recently announced that it punished two customers for rule violations. The agency cited that action as evidence that platforms must police their markets. The CFTC stated that firms engaging in this business carry responsibility under the Commodity Exchange Act.

The guidance also addresses sports-related contracts listed on these platforms. The CFTC said firms should communicate with relevant sports governing bodies when developing terms and oversight programs. The agency linked that requirement to compliance and market integrity standards.

Selig now leads the CFTC as its only sitting commissioner. The commission is designed to have five members, yet only Selig currently serves. He has argued in court filings that the CFTC holds sole jurisdiction over sports event contracts.

Several states have sued prediction market providers over sports-related offerings. Selig filed a recent brief asserting federal authority in that area. The agency continues to collect comments before drafting the next phase of its rule proposal.

USDT issuer Tether has made a strategic investment in Ark Labs, the team developing Arkade, a programmable infrastructure layer for Bitcoin.

The $5.2 million funding round is aimed at expanding stablecoin access on the Bitcoin network and brings the total funding raised by Ark Labs to $7.7 million. Arkade is designed to enable instant, programmable transactions on Bitcoin for both retail users and financial institutions, positioning the network as a more viable platform for everyday payments and commerce.

“Improving access to USD₮ on the most secure and widely recognized blockchain supports greater financial inclusion, more efficient cross-border payments, and stronger global liquidity,” said Tether CEO Paolo Ardoino in a blog post.

Ark Labs CEO Marco Argentieri said Bitcoin has long lacked the programmable infrastructure needed for financial applications, and that Tether’s involvement would help accelerate development of payments, lending, and digital asset solutions being built on Arkade.

The Ark Labs deal is part of a broader infrastructure push. Last week, Tether led a $7.5 million raise for Utexo, a startup building Bitcoin-native USDT settlement rails using Lightning and RGB technology.

Launched in 2014, USDT has grown into the dominant force in the stablecoin market. USDT currently has a market cap of roughly $183 billion, making it the largest circulating stablecoin.

The stablecoin sector’s rapid growth has been driven in part by regulatory clarity, with the GENIUS Act signed into law in July 2025, creating the first federal regulatory framework for stablecoins in the U.S.

OP Labs, the main developer firm supporting the Optimism ecosystem, has laid off 20 employees as part of an internal restructuring aimed at sharpening the organization’s strategic focus, according to a message shared by the group’s leadership.

In a post on X, CEO of OP Labs Jing Wang said the decision followed internal discussions with affected staff and was communicated to employees before being disclosed publicly. The company said the layoffs were driven by a need to “narrow our focus,” rather than financial constraints.

“This is not about finances,” she said in a Slack message she shared alongside her post. “OP Labs is well capitalized with years of runway.”

Instead, she suggested that the move was intended to streamline decision-making and “do fewer things … exceptionally well.”

The OP token is down roughly 3% over the last 24 hours.

OP Labs plays a central role in the development of Optimism, an Ethereum layer-2 scaling network designed to make transactions faster and cheaper by processing activity off the Ethereum main chain. The broader Optimism ecosystem now includes several high-profile chains built on its technology stack, including Coinbase’s Base, Uniswap’s Unichain and Sony’s Soneium.

CoinDesk reached out to OP Labs for comment and to clarify the percentage of staff that was laid off.

Read more: Optimism’s OP token falls after Base moves away from the network’s ‘OP stack’ in major tech shift

As traders are loading up on XRP long positions, one metric signals that it may be time to pay attention.

There’s encouraging data emerging for XRP traders from the order books of perpetual futures exchanges like Binance Futures, Bybit, and OKX, as well as their decentralized counterparts like Hyperliquid, Aster, and Lighter.

Referencing a graph from CoinAnk, popular data analyst CW8900 noted that the number of long positions in XRP has been increasing and has now exceeded the number of short positions.

$XRP‘s long positions have increased, exceeding the size of short positions.

Expectations for $XRP‘s rise are growing. pic.twitter.com/xMnIAEcQqs

— CW (@CW8900) March 12, 2026

But what does this mean for the XRP price? Well, usually, in a vacuum scenario, when there are more buyers than sellers, the price goes up. Of course, that’s incredibly simplified, and it would only hold if these orders are coming from market makers. Market takers could place buying orders at higher prices, but they wouldn’t be executed unless the price actually rises. In all fairness, though, an increasing number of long positions is almost always a good sign, especially if it persists.

This comes at a time when Ripple’s fundamentals are also looking good. For instance, in the last week alone, the company said it would pursue a strategic acquisition to obtain a financial license in Australia, was listed on Mastercard’s new crypto-focused platform, and announced a massive share buyback.

That said, there are some worrying signs as well. As CryptoPotato reported earlier this week, open interest has been dropping across several exchanges. This metric represents the total number of futures contracts that remain active in the market. When it declines, this usually means that traders are reducing exposure. So while the number of long positions went up, the broader open interest went down, meaning that an increase in price is far from certain.

• ADA traded near $0.26 as bulls looked to break above a key resistance line.
• Open interest hovered around $414 million, sharply down over the past month.
• ADA price could drop to $0.22 or lower if bears strengthen.

Cardano’s ADA remains under pressure as buyers struggle to regain momentum, with the token retreating from a key technical resistance level near $0.26.

The cryptocurrency is now down more than 20% year to date.

The decline has also pushed Cardano out of the top 10 cryptocurrencies by market capitalisation, after Hyperliquid (HYPE) climbed to around $38 and moved into the 10th position on CoinMarketCap.

As of March 12, 2026, Hyperliquid’s market capitalisation stood at about $9.6 billion, slightly ahead of Cardano’s $9.4 billion.

The ranking shift could reverse if a potential recovery driven by bullish network-related developments supports ADA’s price.

Otherwise, the prevailing downtrend could push the altcoin toward new multi-month lows.

Cardano open interest falls to $414 million

Cardano’s ADA has trended lower since reaching a peak of $1.01 in August 2025, with derivatives market data reflecting the weakening momentum.

Over the past several months, Cardano’s open interest has declined sharply from about $1.87 billion when the token rallied above $1.

By October 2025, open interest in outstanding ADA futures contracts had fallen to roughly $1.5 billion, before dropping further to around $842 million by mid-January 2026.

The metric now stands at approximately $414 million as of March 12, 2026.

Open interest typically falls as leveraged positions unwind, indicating reduced participation from speculative traders.

The decline of more than 50% from January levels suggests that confidence in ADA’s near-term price outlook has weakened, aligning with the token’s broader bearish trend.

ADA price outlook: bulls face downtrend risk

Cardano price hovers near the resistance line of a parallel channel formed since Feb. 26.

Prices slipped below $0.27 earlier this month amid comments from founder Charles Hoskinson.

From a technical analysis point of view, a breakout looks likely as bulls hold onto support near the trendline.

However, sellers have shown conviction, keeping ADA within a channel formation in place since October 2025.

In terms of the short-term outlook, momentum indicators on the daily chart reinforce the downward risk.

As can be seen below, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) signals weakness under the 50 mark, while the MACD also suggests buyers’ indecision could play into bears’ hands.

Meanwhile, the 50 and 100-day SMAs indicate downward strength.

Cardano’s price is down more than 20% YTD and 70% in the past six months.

This means that failure to strengthen its recovery could risk ADA plunging to year-to-date lows of $0.22.

If price breaks below this level, ADA could face a deeper bearish setup.

However, if gains across crypto and network-related developments boost a fresh uptick, it could invalidate this outlook.

Breaking above the downtrend line and closing above $0.28 would embolden buyers, with key targets at $0.30 and $0.33.

Even then, bulls may need to reclaim $0.45 as support to retake control.

Bitcoin has risen 7% since the U.S.-Iran conflict began, beating gold and the Nasdaq 100, according to Arthur Hayes.

Bitcoin has gained 7% since the U.S.-Iran war started on February 28, outpacing gold, which fell 2%, and the Nasdaq 100, which slipped by 0.5%.

This is according to data shared on X on March 12 by BitMEX co-founder Arthur Hayes.

Bitcoin Holds Ground While Traditional Assets Slip

Hayes posted a normalized performance chart comparing Bitcoin, gold, and the Nasdaq 100 from February 28 to the present. All three assets started at the same baseline on that date, which allowed for a clean comparison of relative performance across nearly two weeks.

On the chart, Bitcoin stood out against the traditional safe haven asset and the broad tech index, gaining 7% as energy prices spiked in the background over concerns about supply disruptions.

Nevertheless, BTC’s price action in that period wasn’t exactly calm. When news of the United States’ and Israel’s strike on Iran first emerged, the asset dropped from around $66,000 to just above $63,000 before reversing to $67,000 following the death of Iranian Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei.

Market watchers at the London Crypto Club agreed with Hayes, saying they had noted a similar dynamic playing out when the Israel-Palestine conflict escalated, and argued that BTC covers both the far left and far right tails of the risk distribution, meaning it can react to extreme scenarios in both directions while spending most of its time trading somewhere in the middle alongside equities.

As of today, the number one cryptocurrency is trading near $70,000, with a 24-hour range between $69,000 and $71,000, gaining less than 2% on the day, per data from CoinGecko. However, the picture goes red over seven days, with BTC down 3.5%, although its current price is a 2% bump on the 30-day reading.

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Looking at the wider context, on-chain data analysts Arab Chain wrote that the Binance BTC Scarcity Index, which measures how much Bitcoin is immediately available for sale on the platform, recently hit its highest reading since October 2025, at 5.10.

According to them, the reading suggests that supply on the exchange has thinned out, and this condition historically appeared during bullish price phases when holders moved their BTC into cold storage rather than leaving them on exchanges.

Hayes is Watching the Fed

Despite the relative outperformance, Hayes has insisted that he’s still not buying Bitcoin. In a recent interview, the former BitMEX CEO said that he would not put any money into BTC right now, flagging the risk that if the United States’ war with Iran dragged on too long, it could trigger a broad equity sell-off that drags Bitcoin toward $60,000.

Bloomberg Intelligence strategist Mike McGlone offered a different framing, suggesting that oil could go near $120, Bitcoin to $90,000, Copper at $6 per pound, and silver near $100 per ounce, which would represent a collective peak for risk assets in the first quarter of 2026, with rising volatility possibly spilling into equity markets.

Key Takeaways

• Tracking Bitcoin properly requires visibility across wallets, exchanges, and on-chain activity

• Portfolio trackers simplify monitoring balances, performance, and price movements

• Modern tools offer automation, analytics, and alerts for better portfolio management

• Platforms like CoinStats allow users to track Bitcoin holdings across multiple wallets and exchanges in one place

Introduction

Bitcoin remains the cornerstone of the cryptocurrency market. Whether investors hold BTC as a long-term store of value or actively trade it across exchanges, keeping track of Bitcoin holdings has become increasingly important.

In 2026, many investors no longer store their Bitcoin in a single place. Assets are often distributed across centralized exchanges, hardware wallets, mobile wallets, and DeFi platforms. This fragmented structure makes it harder to maintain a clear overview of balances, performance, and exposure.

For this reason, tools designed specifically to monitor crypto portfolios have become essential. Tracking Bitcoin today means more than simply checking the price. Investors need visibility into wallet balances, transaction history, profit and loss, and portfolio performance across multiple platforms.

Why Tracking Bitcoin Is Important

Many crypto investors underestimate the importance of structured portfolio tracking. Without a proper system in place, it becomes difficult to answer basic questions such as:

• How much Bitcoin do I actually hold across all platforms?

• What is my average purchase price?

• How much profit or loss have I generated over time?

• How exposed is my portfolio to Bitcoin compared to other assets?

Manually calculating this information quickly becomes inefficient, especially for investors who frequently move funds between exchanges or wallets.

A reliable tracking system helps users maintain transparency over their investments and enables better decision-making in volatile markets.

The Challenges of Managing Bitcoin Across Multiple Platforms

One of the defining features of crypto is self-custody. Unlike traditional finance, where assets are often held within a single brokerage account, crypto investors commonly distribute their holdings across multiple platforms.

For example, a typical Bitcoin holder might store BTC in:

• A centralized exchange like Binance or Coinbase

• A hardware wallet such as Ledger or Trezor

• A mobile wallet like Trust Wallet

• A browser wallet like MetaMask

Each platform provides its own interface, transaction history, and balance display. While this decentralization offers greater control, it also creates operational complexity.

Without a unified system, users must manually check each wallet and exchange to determine their total Bitcoin holdings.

Portfolio Trackers Simplify the Process

Crypto portfolio trackers were developed to solve this exact problem. These tools allow investors to connect multiple wallets and exchanges into a single dashboard, giving them a consolidated view of their assets.

Once connected, portfolio trackers automatically synchronize balances, transaction history, and price data. This removes the need for manual tracking or spreadsheets.

In addition to balance aggregation, modern portfolio trackers often provide:

These features allow investors to monitor their Bitcoin positions more effectively and react faster to market changes.

Tracking Bitcoin With CoinStats

One of the most widely used tools for this purpose is the CoinStats Bitcoin tracker, which allows users to monitor their BTC holdings across multiple wallets and exchanges from a single interface.

CoinStats supports hundreds of wallets and exchanges and integrates with more than 120 blockchains. This makes it possible to track Bitcoin stored in both centralized and decentralized environments.

Instead of logging into several platforms, users can connect their accounts and instantly view their Bitcoin balance, transaction history, and overall portfolio performance.

The platform also offers advanced analytics features that help investors understand how their Bitcoin holdings perform over time. These insights include profit and loss calculations, historical performance tracking, and portfolio breakdowns.

Real-Time Insights and Alerts

Another advantage of using a dedicated tracking platform is real-time monitoring. Bitcoin markets operate 24/7, and prices can change rapidly within short periods of time.

Portfolio tracking tools allow users to set alerts for price movements, ensuring they are notified when Bitcoin reaches specific levels. This is particularly useful for investors who follow long-term accumulation strategies or traders who monitor entry and exit points.

Having access to these alerts helps users stay informed without constantly checking multiple exchange apps.

A Better Way to Monitor Your Bitcoin

As the crypto ecosystem grows more complex, tools that simplify portfolio management are becoming increasingly valuable. Bitcoin may be the most established digital asset, but managing it across multiple platforms still presents practical challenges.

Using a portfolio tracker allows investors to maintain clarity, track performance accurately, and make more informed decisions.

For users who hold BTC across several wallets or exchanges, having a unified dashboard can significantly improve the overall investment experience.

Final Thoughts

Bitcoin continues to play a central role in the digital asset ecosystem. Whether used as a long-term investment or part of an active trading strategy, keeping track of Bitcoin holdings is essential for effective portfolio management.

As the market expands and investors interact with more platforms, tools that aggregate and analyze portfolio data are becoming indispensable.

Solutions like CoinStats demonstrate how portfolio tracking has evolved from simple balance monitoring into a comprehensive system for managing digital assets in an increasingly decentralized financial landscape.

An initiative to ban the U.S. Federal Reserve from issuing a government-run digital dollar has been approved in an overwhelmingly bipartisan 89-10 vote in the Senate, but it’s tucked inside a housing bill that may run into headwinds in the U.S. House of Representatives.

The effort to outlaw a central bank digital currency (CBDC) has long been a favorite of Republican lawmakers, though the U.S. government has never advanced beyond the research stage for establishing a government token that could compete with privately issued stablecoins (and rival other CBDCs pursued by China and other jurisdictions). The 21st Century ROAD to Housing Act included an unrelated section that outlawed U.S. CBDCs until at least the end of 2030.

The section, in the final pages of the 302-page bill advanced by the Senate, declares that the Fed “may not issue or create a central bank digital currency or any digital asset that is substantially similar to a central bank digital currency directly or indirectly through a financial institution or other intermediary.”

“Financial privacy is a cornerstone of American freedom, and any decision to authorize a Central Bank Digital Currency must remain with Congress and the American people,” said Digital Chamber CEO Cody Carbone in a statement. “We appreciate the Senate reinforcing that digital innovation in the United States should be led by the private sector while protecting individual liberty.”

But lawmakers in the House have signaled they may force a second effort at the Senate’s version, which could disrupt the bill’s progress. At particular issue is the Senate bill’s forcing of large investors in U.S. housing, such as private equity firms, to sharply limit the number of homes they can own.

President Donald Trump has favored that concept himself — one of the few areas of overlap with Democratic lawmakers.

Though Trump has supported the effort to make housing more widely available in the U.S., he recently stated that he won’t sign any bills into law until Congress sends him legislation that would demand voters produce identification and proof of citizenship before they cast ballots in this year’s consequential congressional midterm election. The path for that initiative is unclear, adding to the uncertainty for those advocating the housing bill and other efforts, including the crypto market structure bill known as the Digital Asset Market Clarity Act.

Aster price is consolidating beneath key high-timeframe resistance as price compresses within a bullish broadening wedge pattern.

Aster’s (ASTR) recent price action is beginning to attract attention from technical traders as the asset consolidates within a bullish broadening wedge formation. After rebounding from a previous swing low, price has entered a period of compression near a critical high-timeframe resistance level.

This consolidation is occurring around the point of control, a zone where the highest amount of trading volume has historically taken place, often acting as a magnet for price before the next directional move unfolds.

If the bullish structure remains intact and resistance breaks, the setup could open the door for a significant rally toward the $1.05 region.

Aster price key technical points:

• High-timeframe resistance: $0.79 remains the key breakout level.
• Bullish broadening wedge: Price structure suggests building upside pressure.
• Technical target: A breakout could trigger a measured move toward $1.05.

Aster’s current structure shows price trading within a broadening wedge formation, a pattern often associated with increasing volatility and expanding price swings. Unlike traditional contracting patterns, a broadening wedge features widening support and resistance boundaries, reflecting an environment where buyers and sellers are actively testing both sides of the range. In Aster’s case, the structure is leaning bullish because price continues to hold above a key support region while gradually building pressure beneath resistance.

One of the most important levels within this structure is the point of control, the price zone that represents the highest traded volume within the current range. The point of control often acts as a fair-value area where buyers and sellers reach temporary equilibrium before the next directional move emerges. Aster’s price action currently rotating around this level suggests the market is still in a consolidation phase, absorbing liquidity before a potential expansion in volatility.

The bullish argument for Aster largely depends on the ability of price to break above the $0.79 high-timeframe resistance level. This area has historically acted as a barrier preventing further upside movement, making it a critical zone for confirmation. A clean breakout above this level would signal that buyers have regained control of market structure and that the current consolidation has successfully built enough momentum to push price higher.

From a technical perspective, the projected upside target of $1.05 is derived from the measured move of the current structure. This target is calculated by taking the distance from the recent swing low that initiated the current bullish leg and projecting that move from the point where the breakout occurs. Measured move projections are commonly used by traders to estimate potential continuation targets once price escapes consolidation patterns.

Another key factor supporting the bullish outlook is the broader structure of the wedge itself. For a bullish broadening wedge pattern to remain valid, price must continue respecting the two dynamic support and resistance trendlines that define the pattern. These expanding boundaries indicate that market participants are progressively testing higher and lower extremes, a characteristic that often precedes large directional breakouts when the pattern resolves.

However, confirmation will ultimately depend on volume behavior during the breakout attempt. A breakout that occurs on weak or declining volume may lead to a false move, commonly referred to as a liquidity sweep or bull trap. For the bullish scenario to fully materialize, traders will want to see strong and sustained buying pressure accompanying any move above the $0.79 resistance zone.

What to expect in the coming price action

As long as Aster continues consolidating above the point of control and maintains the bullish wedge structure, the probability of an upside breakout remains intact. A decisive move above $0.79 supported by strong volume could trigger the measured move toward the $1.05 target.

Failure to break resistance, however, could extend the current consolidation phase before the next major directional move develops.