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Quantum threat lingers over legacy BTC as Ark flags structural tail risk

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Quantum threat lingers over legacy BTC as Ark flags structural tail risk

Ark Invest and Unchained say about 34.6% of Bitcoin—mainly early, reused and Taproot addresses—could be vulnerable if future quantum computers crack today’s cryptography.

Summary

  • The report estimates 34.6% of BTC, including 5M coins in reused addresses, 1.7M in legacy P2PK, and 200K in Taproot, could be swept if elliptic curve crypto breaks.
  • Quantum is framed as a long‑term, not immediate, threat, giving Bitcoin time to roll out quantum‑safe address types, migration incentives, and stricter anti‑reuse norms.
  • For investors, Ark calls this structural tail risk: long‑dormant and “lost” coins may reprice as quantum milestones approach, especially for institutional custody.

Roughly one-third of all Bitcoin (BTC) in circulation could still be vulnerable if future quantum computers break today’s core cryptography, according to a new joint report from Ark Invest and Unchained.

Ark warns on quantum risk to legacy BTC

The report estimates that about 34.6% of BTC supply remains at potential risk under a credible quantum-computing breakthrough scenario. That slice includes around 5 million BTC (about 25% of total supply) exposed through address reuse, roughly 1.7 million BTC (8.6%) held in early pay-to-public-key (P2PK) addresses, and about 200,000 BTC (around 1%) tied to Taproot’s P2TR address type. In each of these cases, public keys have been revealed on-chain, meaning a quantum-capable adversary who can break elliptic curve cryptography (ECC) could, in theory, derive private keys and sweep funds.

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Ark and Unchained stress that most existing Bitcoin is already safe from near-term quantum threats, as modern usage patterns minimize unnecessary key exposure. However, the legacy buckets—early coins, heavily reused addresses, and certain advanced script types—represent a structurally trapped cohort that may never fully move, especially where owners are lost, dead, or simply offline. That creates a long-lived attack surface that could distort supply expectations if quantum capability arrives earlier than anticipated.

Long-term problem, slow-moving fix

Crucially, the report frames quantum as a “long-term risk”: the industry still expects it will take years before any machine can realistically break Bitcoin’s ECC in real time. That lead time gives the Bitcoin community scope to research and deploy quantum-resistant schemes, including new address types, migration incentives, and protocol-level signals to discourage key reuse.

For investors, the takeaway is not imminent doom but structural tail risk that needs to be priced and managed. If and when credible quantum attacks near viability, pressure will mount on long-dormant coins, and narratives around “lost” supply, Satoshi-era wallets, and institutional custody standards will likely reprice. Ark’s message is blunt: Bitcoin’s cryptography does not need replacing tomorrow, but serious work on quantum mitigation must happen well before the math breaks.

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Crypto World

MediaTek chip flaw exposed crypto wallets and passwords without booting Android

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MediaTek chip flaw exposed crypto wallets and passwords without booting Android

Security researchers at Ledger have discovered a major flaw in some Android smartphone chips that lets an attacker siphon encrypted user data like passwords and private keys in a matter of seconds using just a USB connection.

Summary

  • Ledger’s Donjon security team discovered a vulnerability in MediaTek and Trustonic TEE chips that could allow attackers to extract encrypted data from Android phones in under 45 seconds.
  • The exploit bypasses the secure boot chain before Android loads, allowing attackers to recover the device PIN, decrypt storage and extract seed phrases from popular wallets.

The vulnerability was first spotted in January by Ledger’s internal security research team, Donjon, Ledger Chief Technology Officer Charles Guillemet wrote in a recent X post

According to Guillemet, the vulnerability affected smartphones powered by MediaTek and Trustonic’s TEE processors. 

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MediaTek has since issued a security patch to fix the issue; users who have not installed the latest security updates on their devices may still remain at risk.

White hat hackers were able to penetrate a smartphone from manufacturer Nothing, notably the company’s CMF 1 phone, in under 45 seconds using a laptop.

“Without ever even booting into Android, the exploit automatically recovered the phone’s PIN, decrypted its storage, and extracted the seed phrases from the most popular software wallets,” Guillemet said.

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This puts software wallets like Trust Wallet, Base, Kraken Wallet, Rabby, Tangem’s mobile wallet, and Phantom at risk, as the seed phrases and other sensitive credentials are stored locally on the device.

In their report, researchers noted that the vulnerability allowed attackers with physical access to bypass the phone’s security protections through the secure boot chain, which is a core startup process that runs at the highest privilege level before the operating system loads. Subsequently, the attacker can recover the device’s PIN, decrypt its storage, and extract the information.

“This has the potential to affect millions of Android smartphones,” Guillemet added.

Estimates suggest nearly 36 million people manage digital assets on their smartphones, which means that if attackers manage to exploit a vulnerability, it could put a large number of wallets at risk. 

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Guillemet advised using devices with dedicated secure elements that are built for key protection and can safeguard sensitive data even under physical attack.

The Ledger team also detailed a separate attack it tested on MediaTek Dimensity 7300 processors (MT6878) in December, where the team used electromagnetic fault injection to disrupt the chip’s boot process. It allowed them to bypass security checks and ultimately gain full control over the smartphone at the highest privilege level.

As covered by crypto.news on several occasions, crypto users have been targeted across multiple platforms, including iOS, macOS, and Windows.

While Android devices are often easier to compromise due to Google’s more open ecosystem and flexible app distribution model, Apple’s iOS devices have also developed unique attack vectors that target users through malicious frameworks embedded inside otherwise legitimate apps.

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For instance, last year, security researchers discovered a malicious app that infiltrated both iOS and Android devices by requesting file access and subsequently scanning device storage to extract wallet data. Although not as technically severe in nature as hardware-level exploits, the scheme still managed to steal more than $1.8 million in cryptocurrency.

Around the same time, Kaspersky flagged a malware campaign that spread through malicious software development kits embedded in seemingly harmless apps.

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Will private credit break the Bitcoin price?

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Will private credit break the Bitcoin price?

There is a growing risk that a looming crisis in the private credit market, fueled by rising redemptions and defaults, could spill over into Bitcoin (BTC) and crypto markets, according to analysts.

Key takeaways:

  • The $2 trillion private credit sector faces a crisis from defaults, redemptions, and limited oversight.

  • A liquidity crunch may force investors to sell readily accessible assets, like Bitcoin, first.

  • Historical crises show Fed interventions often lead to strong Bitcoin price rallies as a hedge against money supply expansion.

The private credit ticking time bomb?

The private credit sector, the non-bank lending sector that has grown to over $2 trillion from $500 billion in the past five years, is flashing warning signs of an impending crisis

Fueled by low rates and investor hunger for high yields, it now rivals traditional banks but lacks the same oversight.

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Related: Will Bitcoin crash if oil prices hit $100 per barrel?

In 2024, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) warned that the private credit sector “warranted closer watch,” adding:

“Rapid growth of this opaque and highly interconnected segment of the financial system could heighten financial vulnerabilities given its limited oversight.”

Private credit assets under management to double by 2030. Source: Preqin

Now, the private credit market shows cracks that threaten triggering a financial crisis.

BlackRock, the world’s largest asset manager, with over $10 trillion under management, limited withdrawals from its $26 billion flagship credit funds, reported Bloomberg.

Blue Owl Capital halted redemptions amid software sector woes from AI disruptions, while UBS warns of default rates hitting 15% in worst-case scenarios. 

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On Wednesday, Reuters reported that JPMorgan restricted lending to its private credit funds while Morgan Stanley and Cliffwater Private Credit Fund joined the growing list of asset managers under distress.

Source: X/Max Crypto

”Bond King” Jeffrey Gundlach, founder at Double Line said that the private credit fund of funds in 2026 closely mirrors CDO-squared in early 2007, before the 2008 global financial crisis.

“Financial repression is incoming,” market analyst MartyParty said in an X post on Thursday, attributing the problems to the sector’s rapid growth in the face of ‘increasing scrutiny’ over liquidity during periods of investor outflows.

“Either the Fed injects liquidity, or we go into crisis.”

Global conflict and macroeconomic uncertainties exacerbate this, potentially delaying Fed easing while putting pressure on equities and the Bitcoin price.

As Cointelegraph reported, futures markets are pricing less than a 1% chance of Fed rate cuts at the March 18 FOMC meeting.

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Liquidity crunch could crash Bitcoin price, at first

While the withdrawal limitations directly affect the private credit market, the implications extend far beyond traditional finance.

Withdrawal limits are a “big deal for crypto,” crypto investor Paul Barron said in a recent post on X, adding:

“When giants like Blackrock lock the gates on private funds, it signals a ‘liquidity crunch.’ Investors stuck in private credit might sell their ‘liquid’ assets (Bitcoin/ETH) to raise cash elsewhere.”

This means that if investors cannot access funds from illiquid private credit portfolios, they may turn to assets that can be sold instantly in public markets.

Bitcoin, which trades 24/7, often serves as the first pressure valve. Its price dropped sharply by 50% in March 2020 as the market priced in the COVID-19 crisis.

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But this usually forces government interventions: emergency liquidity injections and rate cuts, aimed at averting systemic collapse.

In 2020, Fed actions post-crash fueled Bitcoin’s surge to its previous all-time high of $69,000 by year-end from $4,400, a 1,400% rally.

Cryptocurrencies, Bitcoin Price, Markets, Price Analysis, Market Analysis, Liquidity
BTC/USD weekly chart. Source: Cointelegraph/TradingView

Similarly, during the March 2023 banking turmoil, Bitcoin initially sold off on contagion fears, then rallied more than 200% as markets priced in a Fed pause on rate hikes.

This suggests that a private credit breakdown might ultimately result in the further expansion of the money supply, sending BTC price to new highs.

As Cointelegraph reported, BitMEX co-founder Arthur Hayes will wait untill until the Fed loosens its monetary policy before buying any more Bitcoin. BTC price will then rise to $250,000, he predicted.

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