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Crypto Clarity Act inches toward Senate hearing as lawmakers weigh legislative trades

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Citi (C) says CLARITY Act momentum builds, but DeFi fight could stall crypto bill

The negotiation to get a crypto market structure bill through its next stages in the Senate have hovered over an almost-there status for weeks, and Republican lawmakers met on Thursday to figure out how to bridge the final gaps.

The White House was expected to get some updated legislative language on Thursday, reflecting the ongoing work on the Digital Asset Market Clarity Act, according to people familiar with the situation. But the talks are still going, and even if the previously uncertain senators (such as Republican Thom Tillis) become satisfied with the bill’s stablecoin yield treatment, other distinct compromises (such as the approach to decentralized finance) also need to be secured before the Senate would be able to send the crypto industry’s top policy priority to President Donald Trump for a signature.

The longstanding debate that had focused on stablecoin yield — on which bankers and crypto businesses have been divided over the structure of stablecoin rewards programs — is close to a finish, the people said, though lawmakers have been discussing what else the community bankers might be offered to get their support while resolving some of their other priorities. That could include some unrelated provisions tied to Congress’ recent housing legislation, according to reporting from Politico.

Officials from Trump’s administration were said to be involved with the meeting of Republican members of the Senate Banking Committee, which is the second panel that needs to advance the bill before it would be repackaged into a final version that can get a vote of the overall Senate. Even if the effort advances from the committee by the end of April, as Senator Cynthia Lummis predicted this week, a couple of further hurdles may be out of lawmakers’ hands.

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Democrats involved in the talks have said they still want senior government officials and lawmakers from profiting off of personal crypto interests — most pointedly aimed at Trump. And they want Democrats appointed to the party’s vacant seats at the Commodity Futures Trading Commission before the agency adopts new crypto rules. Those are both points that could require concessions from the White House, and crypto insiders are expecting those controversial points to be the last matters settled once the lawmakers are working on a final bill.

On the yield issue, Lummis has said that stablecoin rewards programs that steer clear of bank-line language on savings and interest may survive the compromise, insisting they’re more akin to credit-card rewards than interest from bank-account deposits.

Lummis said Coinbase CEO Brian Armstrong, whose opposition to a previous draft bill helped derail an earlier effort to get to a Senate hearing, has been more flexible in recent talks. The company didn’t immediately respond Thursday to a request for comment on its position.

As Congress works, the Securities and Exchange Commission spent much of the week issuing and discussing new crypto policy points, including a first-ever taxonomy that sets out regulatory definitions for U.S. crypto assets. In a CoinDesk op-ed on Thursday, Chairman Paul Atkins and the two Republican commissioners suggested they’re eager to have a new law back up the policy they’re working on.

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“Only Congress can rewrite the law, and we stand ready to work with [Commodity Futures Trading Commission] Chairman Michael Selig to implement the CLARITY Act,” they wrote. “In the meantime, we are providing the responsible regulatory approach that markets demand.”

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Crypto World

Prediction Markets Bet Bitcoin Will Drop Below $55K in 2026

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Prediction Markets Bet Bitcoin Will Drop Below $55K in 2026

Bitcoin (BTC) may go as low as $55,000 in 2026 as the market lacks bullish catalysts amid macroeconomic uncertainties. 

Key takeaways:

  • BTC price has a 65%-71% chance of dropping below $55,000 before Dec. 31, according to prediction markets.

  • Bettors don’t expect Strategy to sell its BTC holdings in 2026. 

  • Whale selling and negative ETFs flows add to Bitcoin’s sell-side pressure. 

Prediction markets see BTC bear market continuing

The majority of traders on Polymarket and Kalshi expect Bitcoin to resume its downtrend throughout 2026, with targets as low as $40,000. 

Related: Bitcoin tests old 2021 top as gold falls to six-week lows under $4.7K

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As of Thursday, Polymarket bettors are pricing in about 71% odds of BTC dropping below $55,000 before Dec. 31, a 13% increase from the previous day.

Traders set 59% odds of BTC crossing below the $50,000 psychological level and a 46% chance that it goes as low as $45,000 before the end of the year.

Bitcoin prices target odds before Dec. 31. Source: Polymarket

The lower price target forecasts for BTC mimic those elsewhere. On fellow prediction site Kalshi, traders set 71% odds of Bitcoin dropping below $60,000, with a 65% chance that it drops below $55,000. The lowest price target on Kalshi is $40,000, with a 31% possibility that BTC drops to this level before Dec. 31.

How low will Bitcoin go in 2026? Source: Kalshi

Bitcoin’s low for 2026 sits at $59,940, reached on Feb. 6, and the last time the BTC/USD pair traded below $55,000 was in February 2024.

As Cointelegraph reported, some analysts believe that the long-term BTC price downtrend is still in play, warning that the rebound to $76,000 was a bull trap

Will Strategy sell Bitcoin in 2026?

Bitcoin’s recent drop to $69,000 saw it slide below Strategy’s average BTC cost price, which is $75,696 at the time of writing.

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But despite the expected drawdown in price, Polymarket odds for Strategy selling Bitcoin in 2026 remain below 15%, while expectations for routine buys remain elevated.

Odds that Strategy sells Bitcoin in 2026. Source: Polymarket.

Polymarket traders still see routine Strategy purchases throughout the year as a high-probability event, with a 96% chance of it holding over 800,000 BTC by Dec. 31. 

Last week, Strategy expanded its Bitcoin treasury to 761,000 BTC after buying 22,337 coins for roughly $1.6 billion.

Bitcoin ETF flows tread water

Meanwhile, the US spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) returned to net negative flows on Wednesday.

These were driven mostly by outflows from the Fidelity Wise Origin Bitcoin Fund (FBTC), data from investment firm Farside shows.

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Bitcoin spot ETF flows (screenshot). Source: Farside

As Cointelegraph reported, the largest ETF offering from asset manager BlackRock saw $34 million in outflows as investor sentiment returned to “extreme fear.”