For a nation steeped in football history, the prospect of missing the FIFA World Cup 2026 is creating unprecedented pressure. Italy, four-time world champions, are confronting the possibility of failing to qualify for a third consecutive tournament, a scenario that seemed unimaginable just a few years ago.
Despite finishing strong in Group I of UEFA World Cup qualifying, their path to automatic qualification ended with a disappointing inability to rack up enough goals to overtake Norway. Now, the Azzurri’s fate rests on the playoffs, as they open their playoff campaign against Northern Ireland on 26 March. Should they advance, their next challenge will be against the winner of the Wales versus Bosnia and Herzegovina matchup.
The playoff scenario: Northern Ireland awaits
Italy’s playoff draw pits them against Northern Ireland, a team with youthful energy and defensive discipline. While Northern Ireland is considered the underdog, coach Michael O’Neill stressed his team’s focus:
“Every time you step on the pitch as an international player, you never know when it will be your last opportunity. So make sure that you embrace it.” he said
For Italy, the stakes are enormous. Failing to overcome Northern Ireland would mean yet another disappointing playoff round, echoing the heartbreaks of 2018 (eliminated by Sweden) and 2022 (denied by North Macedonia).
Italian coach Gattuso reflected on the challenge saying, “We have to believe, because if we don’t believe, no-one else will, and that’s how we have to approach the game.” Italy’s form going into the playoff Italy have been doing well in recent fixtures with gattuso’s men knowing the importance of these next matches for the side. In the last 10 games, they have won 6 times, drawing once and being on the losing side thrice.
With the squad assembled by the coach looking positive with the likes of Chiesa also brought in for the must win clash after a long time, things are looking up for the Azzuri this time.
A frustrating qualifying campaign
Italy’s qualification journey has been marked by both resilience and missed opportunities. A 3-0 defeat to Norway at the start of the campaign set the tone for a group where goal difference would prove critical.
Even a late 2-0 victory over Moldova in Chișinău offered little comfort. As defender Federico Dimarco exited the pitch quickly, frustration was clear: Italy needed a near-impossible swing in goals against Norway to qualify directly.
Coach Gennaro Gattuso acknowledged the pressure, stating: “Honestly, I don’t accept the fans’ jeering. Now we all need to stay united.”
Gattuso, who has only managed the team since June, highlighted the intense scrutiny on both him and the squad.
Squad challenges and key players
Italy’s squad has been hampered by absences and cautious player choices. Federico Chiesa opted out of the crucial Moldova and Norway matches, while Michael Kayode, whose long throws could have been decisive, was also left out.
Gattuso remains confident in his core group, which includes Serie A and Premier League talent, but admits the team must improve.
“With Moise Kean returning from injury and Chiesa back in the fold, we will be stronger,” he said.
Despite creating 28 chances against Moldova, Italy scored only two goals, highlighting the offensive challenges that could define the playoff tie.
Historical context: Italy’s World Cup legacy
Italy has qualified for the previous 14 World Cups, yet the current system’s emphasis on goal difference makes their situation precarious. Gattuso compared European rules to South America and wasn’t very diplomatic in his opinion too.
“If we look at South America, where six out of 10 teams go directly to the World Cup and the seventh heads into a playoff with a team from Oceania, that does give you regrets.” he said.
Norway’s exceptional run in Group I, including an 11-1 win against Moldova and a 5-0 victory over the same team in Chișinău, has made Italy’s direct qualification almost impossible.
Northern Ireland: underdogs with opportunity
Northern Ireland enters the playoff confident despite the daunting task. O’Neill emphasized preparation and defensive solidity:
“This game is probably not going to be a high-scoring game for us, so we need to be as good as perfect at the back and obviously find an opportunity that we can score ourselves.”
The team blends youthful talent like Shea Charles, Trai Hume, and Conor Bradley with experienced guidance from O’Neill, who previously led Northern Ireland to Euro 2016.
Italy faces a defining moment in its football history. The playoff against Northern Ireland is more than a single match, it represents the chance to avoid a third consecutive World Cup absence and to rewrite the narrative of recent disappointments.
Italy’s performance in the FIFA World Cup over the years
Italy’s performance in FIFA World Cups |
Year |
Round / Result |
Position |
Uruguay 1930 |
Did not enter |
– |
Italy 1934 |
Champions |
1st |
France 1938 |
4th place |
4 |
Brazil 1950 |
Group stage |
7th |
Switzerland 1954 |
10th place |
10th |
Sweden 1958 |
Did not qualify |
– |
Chile 1962 |
Group stage |
9th |
England 1966 |
9th place |
9th |
Mexico 1970 |
Runners-up |
2nd |
West Germany 1974 |
Group stage |
10th |
Argentina 1978 |
Fourth place |
4th |
Spain 1982 |
Champions |
1st |
Mexico 1986 |
Round of 16 |
12th |
Italy 1990 |
Third place |
3rd |
United States 1994 |
Runners-up |
2nd |
France 1998 |
Quarter-finals |
5th |
South Korea/Japan 2002 |
Round of 16 |
15th |
Germany 2006 |
Champions |
1st |
South Africa 2010 |
Group stage |
26th |
Brazil 2014 |
Group stage |
22nd |
Russia 2018 |
Did not qualify |
– |
Qatar 2022 |
Did not qualify |
– |
Canada / Mexico / United States 2026 |
To be determined |
– |
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