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Meme Coin Crash Leaves Hailey Welsh Traumatized, ‘Hawk Tuah’

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Crypto Breaking News

A prominent crypto influencer is speaking out about the fallout from promoting a memecoin that unraveled just days after its 2024 launch. Hailey Welch, popularly known as the Hawk Tuah girl, says the HAWK memecoin episode left lasting scars after a rapid rise and a dramatic collapse, and she stresses she did not profit from the project or help launch it.

Welch told Channel 5 in a recent interview that she fully cooperated with a Federal Bureau of Investigation (FBI) probe conducted in 2025, which she says cleared her of any wrongdoing. She also emphasized that she did not possess any of the memecoin’s funds and lacked the technical expertise to launch the coin herself. The experience, she says, took a toll on her mental health as she faced intense scrutiny and threats in the wake of the controversy.

“I was starting to get death threats and everything else. People telling me I owe them all this money, and I’m like, ‘I didn’t do this.’ I’m sitting here, and I’m the one getting hit for this. It’s rough. It’s one of those things where if you come out of the house, you put your head down.”

Despite Welch’s portrayal of the episode as a case of mistaken involvement, not everyone in crypto’s investigative community is sympathetic. On-chain sleuth ZachXBT criticized the backlash, arguing that promoters should bear responsibility when they publicly endorse meme coins that turn out to be high-risk bets. “No one should feel bad for the ‘trauma,’” he wrote, pointing to Welch’s decision to promote the token despite warnings from crypto Twitter, and later stepping away from social media as followers lost funds.

Key takeaways

  • HAWK launched in December 2024 and quickly surged to a market cap north of $490 million within hours of going live, according to market trackers.
  • The following day, the project collapsed by more than 91%, bringing its market cap down to about $41 million and sparking characterizations of a rug pull.
  • An investor lawsuit was filed in December 2024 against the teams behind the memecoin, alleging the sale of unregistered securities; Welch was not named in the suit.
  • Welch says she cooperated with a 2025 FBI inquiry that cleared her of wrongdoing, and that she neither owned funds from the launch nor had the technical capability to create the token.
  • Despite the claims of broad investor losses, Welch’s legal team characterized the total dollar losses by retail investors as around $200,000, while she described the impact as disproportionately harsh on her personally due to threats and public scrutiny.
  • Crypto observers remain divided: supporters say the episode underscores risks of influencer endorsements in memecoin hype, while critics argue that promoters should be accountable for the consequences of their campaigns.

The rise, collapse, and aftermath of the HAWK meme

The HAWK memecoin’s December 2024 debut drew immediate attention, with the token vaulting to a multi-hundred-million-dollar valuation in a matter of hours. Market trackers subsequently show the project losing momentum at a breathtaking pace, delivering a dramatic fall from grace as investor confidence eroded and liquidity questions surfaced. Within 24 hours of launch, the market capitalization had receded to roughly $41 million, a drop of more than 90% from its peak. The episode has since been widely described as a rug pull by observers who tracked the token’s early performance and post-mortem discussions in the community.

The public fallout extended beyond market data. In December 2024, an investor lawsuit was filed against the entities behind the memecoin’s launch, alleging the sale of unregistered securities. Welch, who had publicly promoted the token, was not named in the suit, but the case underscored the broader regulatory and legal risks tied to promoter-backed memes amid a crowded field of similar campaigns. The case added to a growing chorus calling for greater scrutiny of token offerings that hinge on celebrity or influencer endorsements rather than foundational project fundamentals.

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Context, accountability, and what to watch next

Welch’s account highlights the ethical and personal stakes around influencer involvement in meme coins. She contends that she did not profit from the project and did not facilitate its launch, while still bearing the social and mental health consequences of the episode. The FBI’s involvement—according to Welch—yielded a clearing conclusion, though the broader debate about due diligence and disclosure remains active in crypto circles.

From a market dynamics perspective, the HAWK episode illustrates several enduring tensions in the meme-coin niche: how quickly hype can translate into astronomical valuations, how swiftly sentiment can reverse, and how investor protections lag behind the speed of social media-driven campaigns. For investors, the episode reinforces the importance of scrutinizing promoters’ claims, the provenance of a token, and the clarity of regulatory disclosures before participating in a launch. For builders and platforms, it underscores the necessity of clear governance and compliance frameworks to mitigate the risk of similar episodes undermining trust in the ecosystem.

As regulators and the crypto community continue to grapple with these questions, readers should watch for developments around enforcement actions tied to promoter-led token launches, potential updates to how unregistered securities are treated in meme-powered campaigns, and whether more empirical data will emerge on the real-world losses borne by retail participants in such episodes.

Readers should stay tuned to further statements from involved parties and to updates on any legal proceedings, as the broader narrative around influencer-led memecoins continues to evolve and shape the conversation about accountability in the space.

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Risk & affiliate notice: Crypto assets are volatile and capital is at risk. This article may contain affiliate links. Read full disclosure

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Crypto World

VanEck reveals Bitcoin’s defensive options market amid price decline

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The chart shows Bitcoin put premiums hitting a record high in January 2026 | Source: Glassnode

VanEck, a prominent investment firm, has observed a shift in the Bitcoin (BTC) options market, highlighting growing defensive positioning from investors. The recent surge in put option demand and the drop in call option premiums signal a cautious outlook for Bitcoin’s price. This trend reflects investor concerns about macroeconomic factors and market volatility.

Summary

  • Bitcoin’s put/call ratio hits 0.84, showing increased demand for downside protection.
  • Put premiums hit record highs, signaling growing caution in the market.
  • Despite price declines, Bitcoin shows signs of stabilization with reduced volatility and leverage.

In early 2026, the Bitcoin options market has shown signs of heightened caution. VanEck’s analysis reveals that the put/call open interest ratio has risen to 0.84, the highest level since June 2021, reflecting stronger demand for downside protection. 

Over the past 30 days, investors spent approximately $685 million on put options, signaling their concern for further price declines. Meanwhile, premiums on call options fell about 12%, to around $562 million, suggesting that bullish sentiment has waned.

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This shift in sentiment coincides with a 19% decline in Bitcoin’s price over the last month. Despite this drop, spot prices have stabilized, and the market has entered a phase of consolidation, with volatility decreasing from 80 to 50. The drop in futures funding rates, which fell from 4.1% to 2.7%, further suggests that leverage in the market has cooled.

The chart shows Bitcoin put premiums hitting a record high in January 2026 | Source: Glassnode
The chart shows Bitcoin put premiums hitting a record high in January 2026 | Source: Glassnode

VanEck’s report indicates that the demand for downside protection is at its highest level in recent cycles. The put premiums relative to spot volume have reached an all-time high, with put premiums three times higher than levels seen during the market stresses of mid-2022. This suggests that investors are willing to pay a premium to hedge against further price drops, signaling a defensive stance.

The options skew, where put options are more expensive than call options, reflects this growing concern. As of March 2026, the cost of protecting against price drops is significantly higher than the cost of betting on price increases, with implied volatility on puts averaging 66, which is 16 points higher than realized volatility. Historically, this type of skew has often been seen before Bitcoin’s price rebounds.

Industry trends and network activity

Despite the heightened caution in the options market, other indicators show that the Bitcoin market is stabilizing. On-chain activity, such as transaction volume and daily active addresses, has declined, reflecting a more subdued speculative environment. However, long-term holder selling seems to be slowing down, which could be a positive sign for the market’s stability.

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Bitcoin’s price recently surged to $70,000 before correcting, indicating potential signs of a cyclical bottom. VanEck’s CEO, Jan VanEck, has suggested that this may signal a recovery for Bitcoin, as the market adjusts to lower volatility and reduced leverage.

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Bitcoin’s Growing US Stocks Correlation Triggers 50% BTC Price Crash Setup

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Bitcoin's Growing US Stocks Correlation Triggers 50% BTC Price Crash Setup

Bitcoin (BTC) erased much of its US-Iran war-driven gains this week, moving back in sync with the broader downtrend in risk assets, mainly US equities.

Key takeaways:

  • Bitcoin’s positive flip in S&P 500 correlation has historically preceded average declines of around 50% since 2018.

  • BTC is exposed to a broader risk-asset sell-off due to rising macro pressure.

As of Sunday, BTC/USD had fallen 5.65% week-to-date to about $68,700, while the S&P 500 (SPX) closed the week down 1.90%.

BTC/USD weekly chart. Source: TradingView

That renewed correlation is now signaling a greater risk of further downside in the Bitcoin market.

BTC drops 50% on average when it starts following stocks

The bearish warning for Bitcoin comes from a weekly correlation metric comparing BTC and the S&P 500 (SPX), the US equity benchmark index.

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As of Saturday, the 20-week rolling correlation between BTC and SPX was 0.13, up from its recent nadir of around -0.5.

BTC/USD weekly chart ft correlation coefficient with SPX. Source: TradingView

Since 2018, such sharp recoveries in BTC-SPX correlation have been preceding broader Bitcoin market declines, averaging at about -50%.

“It is a warning sign that the stock market is going to collapse and take BTC with it,” said analyst Tony Severino.

Source: X

A 50% drop from Bitcoin’s current price would imply a downside target of roughly $34,350 if the historical pattern repeats. Multiple analysts have projected Bitcoin to drop as low as $30,000–$40,000 in 2026.

In 2020 and 2022, Bitcoin’s declines lagged by several months, unfolding after classic “bull traps” in which BTC rallied alongside rising SPX correlation before reversing and wiping out those gains.

Related: Bitcoin options signal fear even as BTC ETF outflows remain relatively low

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Macro conditions, such as elevated oil prices, inflation, and lower odds of the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates, support the bearish outlook for Bitcoin and equities over the coming months.

Strategy pause adds to cautious outlook

Bitcoin’s renewed correlation with equities is also coinciding with a pause in corporate accumulation.

Strategy (MSTR), one of the largest Bitcoin holders, hasn’t bought BTC via the sales of its STRC preferred stock this week, according to data resource STRC.LIVE.

Strategy’s BTC purchase in the week ending March 22. Source: STRC.LIVE

Its last acquisition, announced March 16, added 22,337 BTC worth $1.57 billion, bringing total holdings to 761,068 BTC. Bitcoin rallied by around 10.50% in the same period, beating US stocks.

Strategy’s STRC-fueled buying helped support Bitcoin’s rally during the US–Iran war. With no fresh purchases this week, BTC is more exposed to the potential sell-off in stocks.

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