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The SEC explains how it’s viewing a crypto security: State of Crypto

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The SEC explains how it's viewing a crypto security: State of Crypto

The U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission and Commodity Futures Trading Commission published interpretive guidance explaining how they might define what is or isn’t a security in crypto; the CFTC also issued a no-action letter for a non-custodial wallet provider to facilitate derivatives and prediction markets transactions; Arizona is filing criminal charges against a prediction market provider; and by the way we kind-of-sort-of have hints of movement on market structure legislation.

What a week, huh?

You’re reading State of Crypto, a CoinDesk newsletter looking at the intersection of cryptocurrency and government. Click here to sign up for future editions.

The narrative

The U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission published interpretive guidance this week — joined by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission — laying out how it approached the question of what in crypto it will deem a security.

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Why it matters

What is, and isn’t, a security has long bedeviled the industry. We had efforts at somewhat defining this from the SEC in the past — Bill Hinman’s “When Howey met Gary (plastics)” speech, for example — but this week’s interpretative guidance is one of the most specific efforts to define this for the industry.

Breaking it down

The SEC laid out several categories it saw in the crypto space, with one of these categories being digital securities. These are cryptocurrencies that meet the definition of a security under any other context, but happen to be tokenized, the guidance said. For example, if a crypto asset meets the prongs of the Howey Test, it’s a security.

This is the category of tokens the SEC will oversee.

Other categories include payment stablecoins, digital tools, digital collectibles and digital commodities, which are generally not securities unless the issuers or operators take actions that might meet securities regulations, such as fractionalizing the tokens in question.

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“We establish a straightforward taxonomy of crypto assets — most of which are not securities — and clarify how the Supreme Court’s Howey test applies when a crypto asset is part of an investment contract,” SEC Chair Paul Atkins and Commissioners Hester Peirce and Mark Uyeda wrote in an oped for CoinDesk.

The CFTC said it would sign on to the guidance and administer it under the Commodities Exchange Act.

“Market participants — from innovators and issuers to individual investors — should review this interpretation to better understand the regulatory jurisdiction between the SEC and CFTC,” the CFTC said in a press release. “The interpretation will be published on CFTC.gov and in the Federal Register.”

Congressman Troy Downing (R-Mont.) called the guidance “very positive,” but said Congress still needed to pass market structure legislation as a future administration could undo the interpretative guidance.

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“Just having another two or three years of this and then having ambiguity out there doesn’t make most people comfortable on doing any kind of big investment,” he told CoinDesk. “But it’s a great start because this is exactly what the industry wants, and it allows some people to move forward.”

Chris LaVigne, a partner at the law firm Withers, said the guidance “predictably concludes that most crypto assets and many common crypto activities are not securities,” though the agency kept some discretion to being an enforcement action in this area.

“The guidance moves the securities inquiry away from the asset or activity itself (which are mostly deemed digital commodities not within the purview of the SEC) and re-centers the analysis on the transactions and representations in which these assets or activities arise or are marketed,” he said. “By doing so, the SEC did not completely eliminate uncertainty or its enforcement role, because it concludes that a crypto asset that is not a security can nonetheless be sold as part of an investment contract if it is marketed with promises of profit derived from the issuer’s essential managerial efforts.”

A crypto that was marketed as a security may eventually be deemed something else “once those promises are fulfilled or no longer operative,” he said. This might affect securities more broadly than just crypto assets.

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It’s less clear what may constitute a commodity under the guidance.

Jason Gottlieb, a partner at Morrison Cohen, said the Commodity Exchange Act defines commodities as a list of products (excluding onions and motion picture box office receipts), services and other issues “in which contracts for future delivery are presently or in the future dealt in.”

This legal definition diverges from the definition seemingly being used in the guidance. The CFTC’s approach to crypto over the past decade has evolved since some early lawsuits, where it claimed jurisdiction over bitcoin , leading it to seemingly have jurisdiction over non-security cryptocurrencies. But this definition needs to be codified by market structure legislation, he told CoinDesk.

“People need to understand that jurisdiction is still uncertain. The SEC is clearly saying ‘we don’t have jurisdiction if the token does not meet these criteria,’” he said. “Just because the SEC does not have jurisdiction does not mean the CFTC does.”

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Gottlieb said he was part of a case before the Seventh Circuit Court of Appeals seeking to gain clarity on this question, but market structure legislation would be needed to cleanly grant the CFTC jurisdiction over all non-security cryptocurrencies.

The status of that legislation also remains up in the air. Senator Cynthia Lummis (R-Wyo.), speaking at the DC Blockchain summit earlier this week, said she anticipated a markup may happen in the final weeks of April. The issue of stablecoin yield may be resolved with an agreement that stablecoin issuers and their partner firms would not describe their products using bank terminology, though she cautioned that she hadn’t seen any specific language yet.

The flip side, several individuals told me, is that the Clarity Act might require the SEC to go back to the drawing board on how it’s defining securities in crypto. But this falls under the category of bridges that can be crossed when they’re reached.

Senator Tim Scott (R-S.C.), the chair of the Senate Banking Committee, said lawmakers are also close to agreements on issues like ethics and quorums on the regulatory agencies — some of the outstanding areas of disagreement on the bill.

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Downing said he saw an April time frame as doable for advancing market structure legislation. The closer lawmakers get to the end of the year, however, the less likely it would be that anything could be passed, he said, pointing to the midterm election. “But I don’t think it’s impossible.”

Senator Kirsten Gillibrand (D-N.Y.) said on stage at the DC summit that she was “optimistic” there would be a markup soon, which would then lead to the Banking and Agriculture Committee’s bills combining.

The combined bill would need to incorporate areas of bipartisan agreement, she said.

“One of the issues that I think is very important that people should be aware of is the Senate wants an ethics provision,” she said. “I think the House would have had even more support on the Democratic side if they had retained their ethics provisions in their bill. It’s very important that members of Congress do not get rich off of this industry, because they have access to non-public information, because they have positions of power and authority.”

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Downing said the market structure bill needed to address consumer protections and money laundering, without being so restrictive that companies would be scared to do anything.

“Nobody wants bad actors in their space and nobody wants that reputation of bad actors using this as a tool to do bad things,” he said. “… If you bring those [provisions] in too narrow, nobody’s going to do anything innovative.”

He said he understood why banks might be concerned about the yield issues.

“Community lenders, community banks are worried about depositors all exiting the market, in which case you’re not doing mortgages on small farms in Montana, right?” he said.

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Late Friday, Senators Angela Alsobrooks and Thom Tillis told Politico they had reached an agreement on the yield issue, though the details had not been shared with the banking or crypto industries as of press time.

Kalshi was just ordered to cease offering most of its prediction markets in the state of Nevada for at least two weeks, pending a hearing on April 3.

The order came after an appeals court refused to grant an administrative motion that could have blocked the state court’s action. Earlier in the week, the state of Arizona filed criminal charges against Kalshi, alleging some of its election and other contracts violate state law.

In Nevada, a judge ruled that Kalshi can’t offer sports, election or entertainment-related event contracts at least temporarily.

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According to the order by Judge Jason Woodbury, the record in Nevada’s case against Kalshi so far suggests that it offers products defined by state law, making its conduct subject to Nevada’s gaming regulators.

“The question of federal preemption in this regard is nuanced and rapidly evolving,” the judge wrote. “At the moment, the balance of convincing legal authority weighs against federal preemption in this context.”

The Arizona action goes further, alleging misdemeanor violations on small bets placed on professional football and college basketball games, upcoming elections and on whether bills become law and whether public figures will show up to sporting events.

“Arizona law prohibits operating an unlicensed wagering business, and separately bans betting on elections outright,” Arizona Attorney General Kris Mayes’ office said in a press release.

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Kalshi co-founder Tarek Mansour called the charges a “total overstep” that “have nothing to do with gambling or the merits.”

There’s a broader growing backlash to prediction markets. Senator Catherine Cortez-Masto, who represents Nevada, wrote an opinion piece saying prediction markets “blatantly violate state and tribal laws and regulations.”

“To ensure responsible gaming, casinos, sportsbooks and online gaming sites have to follow minimum age requirements, participate in integrity monitoring and support critical consumer protections, like programs that help people with gambling addictions,” she said. “Yet, this past year, emboldened by limp and overly permissive federal regulators like the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), so-called ‘prediction markets’ have transformed themselves into illegal sportsbooks, offering their users illicit sports wagers.”

This week

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  • There are no hearings or public meetings scheduled (at least pertaining to crypto).

If you’ve got thoughts or questions on what I should discuss next week or any other feedback you’d like to share, feel free to email me at [email protected] or find me on Bluesky @nikhileshde.bsky.social.

You can also join the group conversation on Telegram.

See ya’ll next week!

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Solana Head and Shoulders Breakdown Triggers Bearish Outlook Amid On-Chain Selling Pressure

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Brian Armstrong's Bold Prediction: AI Agents Will Soon Dominate Global Financial

TLDR:

  • Solana confirms a head and shoulders breakdown, projecting downside toward the $70–$77 range.
  • Market cap fell from $55B, signaling capital outflows and weakening investor confidence.
  • On-chain data shows sustained realized losses, with daily selling pressure between $30M and $50M.
  • Exchange outflows rose sharply, yet the price remains weak due to a lack of strong buyer demand.

Solana price analysis indicates a confirmed bearish reversal after a structured breakdown. Price action, declining market cap, and on-chain signals collectively point to sustained selling pressure in the near term.

Head and Shoulders Breakdown Signals Trend Reversal

Solana price has shown a clear head and shoulders formation after an extended uptrend. The pattern includes a defined left shoulder, a higher peak, and a lower right shoulder. 

This structure typically signals exhaustion among buyers and a shift in trend direction. The neckline formed as a slightly ascending support level, reflecting earlier higher lows.

However, price action failed to hold this zone, leading to a decisive breakdown. This move confirmed a structural shift, with sellers gaining control of momentum.

Following the breakdown, Solana declined nearly 4% toward the $86 level. This move aligns with the expected reaction after a neckline breach. 

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The measured move projects a downside range between $70 and $77, based on the pattern’s height. $SOL has confirmed a head and shoulders breakdown. 

If the price fails to reclaim this level, it may act as resistance. This scenario often accelerates selling pressure and reinforces the bearish outlook.

Market Cap and On-Chain Data Confirm Weakness

Solana’s network valuation peaked near $55 billion before entering a sharp decline phase. This drop reflects strong distribution activity and reduced participation. The initial decline around March 17 marked a turning point in sentiment. 

Market cap fell rapidly, suggesting large holders exited positions. Afterward, the price entered a consolidation phase between $50 billion and $52 billion. 

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However, recovery attempts remained weak and formed lower highs. A further decline below $50 billion aligned with the neckline breakdown. 

This confluence between price structure and capital flow strengthens the bearish case. Sustained weakness below this level may support the projected downside targets.

On-chain data adds another layer to the analysis. Net realized profit and loss shows continued selling at a loss since mid-February. 

Daily losses range between $30 million and $50 million, indicating persistent pressure.Exchange flow data shows a shift, with outflows reaching 700,000 SOL after March 17. 

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This suggests reduced selling supply on exchanges. However, price has not responded positively, indicating weak demand.

Currently, Solana trades near $87.29, below key support at $88.02. A sustained move lower may expose the next support at $81.60. Resistance remains near $92.19, where buyers must regain strength.

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The CLARITY Act Is Under Threat of Depayment Delay Although a Stablecoin Deal Is Being Made

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Crypto Breaking News

Stablecoin Deal Is a Partial Victory

According to recent reports, the Senate leaders and the White House achieved a consensus on stablecoin yields. This move has resolved one of the major conflicts between crypto companies and banks. Thorn, however, said that the progress was good but still needs some work. Thorn pointed to the fact that a number of thorny issues may still delay the passage of the bill through Congress. These are the decentralization of finance monitoring, the security of the developers, and the regulatory framework. Furthermore, ethical considerations can also attract the attention in the process of further discussion.

The policy advisors of the US have noted that the negotiations are not over with the stablecoin issue. Participants of the discussions stated that the lawmakers should resolve the pending issues before the bill is completed. Besides, they characterized the new accord as a significant measure, as opposed to a solution.

Players in the industry have noted that there is a small legislative window in which the CLARITY Act should be passed. Kristin Smith of the Solana Institute told that the lawmakers should hope to pass it by August. In addition, she observed that the congressional timetable is even more restricted when there is greater activity in terms of election matters towards the end of the year. Senator Cynthia Lummis has proceeded to urge the bill to move forward quickly through the Congressional Banking Committee. She noted that the lawmakers would be able to pick the markup step during the Easter recess. Additionally, she has once again stated that timely passage is still relevant in developing the regulation of digital assets.

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US Promotes Iran Peace negotiations as Trump announces military reduction

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Crypto Breaking News

Mediators Prefer to have an Early Contact

The regional intermediaries have intervened to deliver messages between the two parties. Egypt, Qatar and the United Kingdom have relayed positions as part of early outreach activities. Furthermore, their contacts demonstrate that both Washington and Tehran are examining the possibility of the negotiations framework.Iran has already conveyed rigid terms of getting down to formal negotiations. These are a ceasefire, guarantees of new war and financial compensation. Moreover, the location of Tehran indicates the issues of security in the long term and economic recovery of the city following weeks of conflicts.

The US has also stipulated some conditions that the conflict will come to an end. They are terminated development of missiles during several years and imposed restrictions on the uranium enrichment. In addition to the above, Washington aims at containing the activities of Iran supporting regional factions aligned to its interests.President Donald Trump said that US forces have undermined the military capacity of Iran in the course of operations. He pointed out that there is massive destruction of missile systems among other assets. Therefore, the administration looks at the present development as a foundation of strategy change.

According to Trump, the US is contaminating with a possibility to reduce its military presence in the region. In addition, he associated this action to attainment of major goals against Iranian capabilities. This trend represents the shift of active operations to a diplomatic solution.Oil prices around the world have remained high because it is not clear that there will be a route to supply the product. The Strait of Hormuz is still impacting the market sentiment because it cannot move freely. As a result, the cryptocurrency market is on the alert due to geopolitical risks.The market has reacted to the shifting trends in the war. Prices improved due to the reports of relaxed sanctions of Iranian oil exports. But the volatility has not ended yet because investors are monitoring the military and diplomatic signs closely.

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Risk-Off Drips throughout Markets

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Crypto Breaking News

Risk-Off Drips throughout Markets

The world markets became risk-off when geopolitical tension escalated in the Middle East. Further, increasing uncertainty drove investors out of risky in the form of Bitcoin and Ethereum. Equities and commodities, too, reacted by this change, with a more extended response. Due to the oil infrastructure related disruptions in Iran, oil prices went up. Also, increased energy prices were an issue that was of concern to inflation and economic growth. Therefore, investors changed portfolios in order to minimize the exposure of risk sensitive assets.

New information published by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics indicated that producer prices increased than anticipated in February. The Producer Price Index rose by 0.7% on a monthly basis and stood at 3.4% on an annual basis. Therefore, expectations for an interest-rate reduction have been undermined, as monetary risks of inflation still exist. Markets are concerned about the upcoming Federal Open Market Committee meeting. The traders assume that rates will be maintained between 3.50% and 3.75% in the near term. Nevertheless, the lack of clarity in the direction of policy has been promoting investment in crypto assets reduction among investors.

Chain data revealed that short-term Bitcoin owners transferred big amounts to exchanges. Over 48,000 BTC had been deposited in profit on exchanges within one day. This activity indicated that there is intensified selling pressure during the recent price rebounds. Short-term holders kept generating profits as Bitcoin moved to higher resistance levels. Besides, a good number of investors decided to sell off rather than to hold during volatility. This action decreased the upward movement and led to recurring pullbacks. At the report date, the price of Bitcoin was close to 72,229, a daily drop. Ethereum fell to approximately 2,235, although other currencies like XRP and BNB gained losses as well. Moreover, the general market environment continued to be sensitive, with sentiment remaining low.

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BTC Miner Inflows to Binance Hit Lowest Levels Since June 2023 Amid Reduced Selling Pressure

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TLDR:

  • BTC miner inflows to Binance have dropped to their lowest monthly average since June 5, 2023.
  • The U.S. ice storm forced miners to sell BTC to cover fixed costs despite reduced operations.
    Combined miner inflows across all exchanges currently stand at approximately 4,381 BTC monthly.
  • Miners are estimated to hold 1.8 million BTC in reserve, making their behavior critical to watch.

BTC miner inflows to Binance have dropped to historically low levels in recent weeks. This follows a sharp spike recorded during the ice storm that struck the United States in late January and early February.

The monthly average now stands at approximately 4,316 BTC. Across all exchanges, the combined figure reaches 4,381 BTC. Analysts view this shift as a reduction in structural selling pressure from the mining cohort.

Ice Storm Forces U.S. Mining Pools to Liquidate BTC Holdings

Several large U.S.-based mining pools slowed down or halted operations during the storm. The extreme weather disrupted normal mining activity across affected regions.

However, fixed costs such as electricity, infrastructure, and operational expenses remained constant. This financial pressure pushed some miners to sell BTC in order to maintain liquidity.

On-chain analyst Darkfost noted the sharp rise in miner inflows during that period. The data showed a clear correlation between the weather event and increased BTC distribution to exchanges.

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Miners facing reduced output still needed to cover ongoing operational costs. Selling into the market became the most practical solution for many affected operations.

The spike in inflows was a temporary reaction to an external shock. Once weather conditions normalized, mining activity gradually resumed across the United States.

With operations back online, the need to liquidate BTC eased considerably. The data confirms the increase was event-driven rather than structural.

This pattern is not uncommon when miners face unexpected downtime. External disruptions can quickly shift miner behavior from accumulation toward distribution.

When income drops but costs remain fixed, selling becomes the most immediate option available. The ice storm served as a clear example of how operational risk translates directly into market activity.

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Miner Reserves and Reduced Selling Pressure Point to Market Stability

Since the storm subsided, BTC miner inflows have reversed sharply to the downside. The current monthly average of 4,316 BTC marks the lowest reading since June 5, 2023.

This decline points to miners retaining more BTC rather than routing it toward exchanges. Lower exchange inflows typically reflect reduced selling intent from this cohort.

According to Darkfost’s analysis, miners currently hold an estimated 1.8 million BTC in reserves. This represents a large supply pool that could enter the market under shifting conditions.

Any move to increase distribution from these reserves could generate considerable selling pressure. Monitoring miner behavior therefore remains a critical component of broader market analysis.

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At present, the data suggests miners are in a conservative distribution phase. The reduction in exchange inflows across both Binance and the wider market supports this reading.

Miner-driven selling pressure appears relatively contained at this stage. This backdrop can support near-term price stability for BTC.

The trend requires continued monitoring as market conditions evolve. If BTC prices decline sharply, miners may resume higher distribution to manage cash flow.

Conversely, rising prices could encourage further holding. Miner inflow data remains one of the more reliable on-chain indicators for gauging supply-side pressure.

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Modi Reviews Energy Risks as Iran Urges India to Arbitrate Conflict

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Crypto Breaking News

Strait interference creates issues with supply

The Strait of Hormuz manages a significant portion of the world oil exports and its blockage has strained the economies relying on imports. As a result, India is in danger because of its dependence on the crude and gas flows via this path. Nevertheless, officials assured that there are no delays in the delivery of fuel shipment, such as that of the United States and Russia.

The Iranian President, Masoud Pezeshkian, encouraged India to take the independent position and apply it to contribute to the diplomatic processes and minimise the tensions. He has noted the role of India as a neutral voice that can have an impact in the conversation between the two. In addition, Tehran sees the current stand of India in global groupings as an avenue to promote de-escalation. In turn, Narendra Modi repeated the emphasis on the stability in the region and the safety of the critical infrastructure. Another point he made was the importance of maintaining open international shipping routes in order to sustain uninterrupted trade. In addition, India recognized Iranian cooperation in making sure that Indian nationals in the region are safe.

The Strait situation was put under further strain with the US President Donald Trump threatening to close the Strait unless Iran opened it within a specified period. Iran reacted with powerful words and this could indicate that retaliations will be taken in case its infrastructure was further assaulted. As a result, the trade has heightened the worry over greater regional instability. Prices of world oil have soared due to the tension that has been experienced and the markets have responded to the supply risks associated with the Strait. Therefore the Indian import bill can go up and this would create a strain on the inflationary pressure and duty of fuel in India. Analysts remark that the disruptions partially alleviated would stabilize the prices and the supply conditions would improve.

Contingency measures are examined by the government

The Indian officials were looking through contingency plans to deal with disruptions in supplies and keep a sufficient fuel supply. Besides, the authorities evaluated other sourcing options to minimize reliance on one route. These measures are intended to provide stability at home markets in the external uncertainty.

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The Moon Is the New Data Center: Inside Musk’s Plan to Take AI Off-Planet

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TLDR:

  • Terafab will produce two chip types; one for Tesla and Optimus, and a space-hardened D3 variant for orbit.
  • Solar panels in space run five times more efficiently, making orbital AI cheaper to operate than ground-based systems.
  • A lunar electromagnetic mass driver could slash payload launch costs from $1,200 per pound to just dollars in electricity.
  • One entity now controls the rockets, chips, robots, and satellites needed to build an off-planet AI supply chain.

Terafab, a semiconductor facility developed by Tesla, SpaceX, and xAI, has officially broken ground. Elon Musk unveiled the project Saturday night at a decommissioned power plant in Austin, Texas.

The facility targets one terawatt of AI compute annually, roughly double the total electricity capacity of the United States.

Around 80% of its chip output is set for space deployment. Musk framed the effort as the start of what he called a galactic civilization.

Terafab’s Chip Strategy and Space-Bound AI Infrastructure

Terafab will produce two distinct types of chips. One type supports Optimus robots and Tesla vehicles. The other, designated D3, is hardened specifically for space.

Most of the facility’s output, roughly 80%, is directed toward orbital deployment. The remainder supports ground-based AI applications and consumer devices.

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Musk expects Optimus robot production to reach 10 to 100 times the volume of car manufacturing. That points to billions of chips being produced annually.

The scale makes Terafab central to both commercial and space operations. No existing facility currently targets this combined level of output.

Musk told the Austin audience that solar panels in space operate five times more efficiently than on Earth. Milk Road AI reported this as a central part of its cost argument for orbital AI.

Space also provides uninterrupted sunlight, unlike ground-based installations. Over time, this positions orbital AI as cheaper to run than terrestrial alternatives.

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Near-term chip output from Terafab is directed toward a data center under construction in Virginia. That facility serves as the initial hub before full orbital deployment begins.

It connects ground-level production to the broader space strategy. From there, the roadmap extends outward toward the moon.

Lunar Mass Driver and the Road to a Petawatt

Beyond the terawatt lies a petawatt target, one thousand times more powerful. Musk argued that reaching it requires moving manufacturing off-planet.

The moon, with its low gravity and no atmosphere, becomes the logical production site. A lunar base forms the next stage of the infrastructure plan.

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Rather than rockets, the plan calls for an electromagnetic mass driver on the lunar surface. This magnetic cannon would launch AI satellites directly into deep space.

A Falcon rocket currently costs around $1,200 per pound of payload. A lunar mass driver could reduce that figure to just dollars per pound in electricity.

Milk Road AI described this as potentially the single biggest reduction in the cost of intelligence in human history, with the caveat that it must first work.

That qualifier is worth noting. No mass driver of this scale has been built or tested. The engineering challenges ahead remain unresolved.

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Musk stated his goal to complete the lunar infrastructure within his own lifetime. Terafab has already broken ground, and the D3 chips are currently in design.

The race to place AI infrastructure in space has formally started. One entity now controls the rockets, the robots, the chips, and the satellites required to pursue it.

 

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Ethereum Whales Face Losses as Unrealized Profit Ratio Hits Critical Levels

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TLDR:

  • Ethereum whales near breakeven signal reduced aggressive selling and late-stage accumulation.
  • ETH price on the 4H chart shows an early downtrend with lower highs and key support zones.
  • MACD and RSI indicators confirm weakening momentum and potential for further downside.
  • Liquidity clusters above and below the current price suggest volatility expansion is imminent.

Ethereum whale unrealized profit ratio has dropped near zero, placing major holders at breakeven or loss. This aligns with weakening short-term price action and tightening liquidity zones, setting the stage for a decisive market move.

Whale Profitability and Market Structure

Ethereum whale unrealized profit ratio shows major holders of 100,000 ETH or more approaching breakeven or unrealized losses. Historically, such readings appear during late-stage bear markets or deep accumulation phases.

Past cycles provide context. Between 2018 and 2019, whale profit ratios dipped toward zero before the post-ICO market bottom stabilized. A similar pattern occurred in 2020 before a strong upward expansion.

Large holders typically have long-term strategies and superior market insight. Their positions reflect structural market conditions rather than short-term sentiment. 

Unrealized losses at this scale indicate broad market compression and potential accumulation. Selling pressure often reduces under these conditions. 

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Whales generally avoid realizing losses unless forced by liquidity constraints, which can stabilize downside momentum. At the same time, accumulation tends to increase quietly. 

Large holders often average down or reposition strategically during these periods. Retail sentiment contrasts with this behavior. 

As price stagnates or decline, retail participants often panic. In contrast, whales being underwater suggests the market’s strongest participants are experiencing losses, which can indicate a closer proximity to the bottom ranges.

Price Action, Momentum, and Liquidity Zones

Ethereum’s 4-hour chart shows short-term momentum weakening after a peak near $2,300–$2,400. Price has entered a corrective phase with lower highs and mild lower lows, typical of early downtrend structure.

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Current price levels around $2,080 sit near a horizontal support zone that previously acted as a consolidation base. Momentum indicators confirm weakness: MACD shows expanding bearish signals, while RSI near 35–40 suggests room for further downside before oversold conditions emerge.

Liquidity clusters define the next potential moves. A dense short liquidation zone exists between $2,180 and $2,220, while a strong long liquidation pool lies near $2,050–$2,100. 

Price is currently trapped between these levels, creating a “liquidity sandwich” that often precedes volatility expansion.

Social media commentary reflects this tension: “Price is stuck between two liquidation magnets. One side will be cleared before expansion.” The market is range-bound, awaiting a catalyst. 

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A downside sweep appears slightly more likely due to recent bearish momentum, which could clear long positions before a potential relief bounce.

Whale positioning adds further insight. If large holders defend current support, the market may stabilize. Otherwise, ETH may search for deeper value before any recovery occurs. 

Overall, the market is in a transitional phase with structural weakness balanced by potential accumulation.

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Strategy Surpasses 761K BTC as Michael Saylor Hints at More Buying Momentum

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TLDR:

  • Strategy now holds 761,068 BTC valued at $52.36B amid ongoing purchases.
  • Average acquisition cost for holdings stands at $75,696 per bitcoin.
  • Moderate leverage and $38B derivatives exposure support the accumulation strategy.
  • Bitcoin consolidates near 68.7K after the recent 75–76K peak, showing a short-term pullback.

Michael Saylor’s Bitcoin accumulation continues as Strategy scales its treasury beyond 761,000 BTC. The approach combines moderate leverage, active market participation, and long-term capital allocation in bitcoin despite ongoing price volatility.

Strategy’s Growing Bitcoin Holdings and Market Engagement

Michael Saylor continues to expand Strategy’s corporate bitcoin holdings, posting on X on March 22, 2026, with his signature orange dot chart illustrating ongoing accumulation. 

The chart visually tracks the company’s treasury growth despite market swings. A recent purchase of 22,337 BTC increased total holdings to 761,068 BTC, with a current valuation of $52.36 billion and an average acquisition cost of $75,696 per coin. 

This reinforces the scale of corporate bitcoin adoption and the long-term focus of Strategy’s capital allocation.

Equity metrics show MSTR trading at $135.66, with a market capitalization of $46.814 billion and an enterprise value of $62.766 billion. 

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Trading volume reached $3.82 billion, and the 30-day average stood at $2.846 billion. These figures demonstrate active market participation alongside the accumulation strategy.

Leverage, Volatility, and Bitcoin Market Trends

Strategy uses moderate leverage, holding $8.254 billion in total debt alongside $2.25 billion in cash. Net leverage is 11%, indicating a controlled approach while supporting continued bitcoin purchases. 

Open interest in derivatives totals $38.137 billion, and implied volatility is 55%, with historical volatility at 74%, reflecting significant market swings.

The bitcoin market currently shows a short-term pullback. Price peaked near 75–76K before consolidating around the 68.7K support region. Momentum indicators such as the MACD are negative, and the RSI hovers in the high-30s, approaching oversold levels. 

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This suggests sellers dominate the short-term market, while volume patterns indicate limited panic selling.

Key support levels include 68K, with further support near 66–64K, and resistance levels at 70–71K. Tweets from Strategy’s official account continue to emphasize the “Orange March,” signaling that accumulation is ongoing, and institutional confidence remains elevated.

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XRP Price Prediction: Pepeto Races XRP Toward 150x as the Binance Listing Draws Near While Solana Signals Recovery

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XRP Price Prediction: Pepeto Races XRP Toward 150x as the Binance Listing Draws Near While Solana Signals Recovery

Goldman Sachs became the largest buyer of XRP ETF shares this quarter, and the SEC classified XRP as a digital commodity on March 17, ending years of legal confusion from the Ripple lawsuit.

Amid this development, Pepeto, an exchange presale from the cofounder who built the original Pepe coin to $11 billion, is pulling in wallets that track institutional flows before they reach the headlines. While the xrp price prediction hints at $4, 150x projections around Pepeto turn that target into a race between both entries.

XRP Price Prediction Turns Bullish After SEC Commodity Classification and $1.39 Billion in ETF Inflows

The SEC and CFTC jointly classified XRP as a digital commodity on March 17, placing it alongside Bitcoin and Ethereum under CFTC oversight, according to Phemex.

Spot XRP ETFs have pulled in $1.39 billion with 772 million tokens locked in custody, and Goldman Sachs emerged as the largest institutional buyer, according to Yahoo Finance.

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The classification removes the legal overhang from 2020, but from $1.39 the xrp price prediction still measures returns in small multiples over years.

XRP Price Prediction and the Presale That Could Outperform

Pepeto: The Best Opportunity Of 2026

Most traders hear about a token only after it already printed 10x, 100x, or even 1000x in gains. Pepeto is the exchange being built to make sure you are positioned before the move, not reading about it after.

The platform is a complete trading hub designed to protect your capital. You can scan contracts for hidden risks before your wallet connects and stay ahead with tools that flag danger before a single dollar moves. For traders who lose money to scams, bad contracts, and hidden fees, this changes everything.

At the core of the exchange are three products that bring the system to life. PepetoSwap runs zero fee trades so your capital works for you instead of paying the platform. The risk scorer examines every contract for traps and scam code, giving you a clear answer in seconds so you never fall for a bad project again.

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The presale has raised more than $8 million with the Binance listing approaching, and the cross chain bridge moves tokens between networks at zero cost. The cofounder who built Pepe to $11 billion with the same 420 trillion supply and zero products is now building an exchange. A SolidProof audit verified every contract, a former Binance expert is on the dev team, and 195% APY staking compounds in wallets that committed while others watched.

Pepe reached $11 billion with nothing. Matching that from the current presale entry of $0.000000186 is over 150x, and Pepeto has the exchange infrastructure Pepe never built. The wallets entering now are building the positions the xrp price prediction takes years to match.

XRP Price Prediction: Can XRP Reach $4 After the SEC Clears the Legal Path?

XRP trades near $1.39 as of March 22, up from $1.20 after the commodity classification removed the legal cloud, according to CoinMarketCap.

Analyst Ali Martinez identified a breakout zone and said clearing it could send XRP toward $4, according to TradingView.

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More bullish forecasts place XRP at $5 to $6 by year end. But even the aggressive $6 target is a 4x return requiring the full cycle. The xrp price prediction delivers real returns over long timelines, not the 150x a presale to Binance listing compresses into the moment trading begins.

Solana

SOL trades near $87 as of March 22, down 75% from its cycle high above $260, according to CoinMarketCap.

An ascending trendline has provided support, and $100 is possible if it holds. But from $87, a 3x requires a recovery that could take quarters. SOL is signaling recovery, not delivering the entry that changes a portfolio.

Conclusion

The xrp price prediction is real, the commodity classification adds weight, and ETF inflows confirm the direction. But to grab the biggest returns from this shift, a portfolio needs an early entry that delivers multiples a large cap at $1.44 is too established to produce.

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The Binance listing compresses that return window into days, and the wallets entering today at presale pricing are building the positions the rest of the market will spend this cycle wishing they had. The Pepeto official website is where the investors who see how rare this setup is are locking in their entries right now.

The xrp price prediction says $4. The Pepeto presale math says 150x, choose which distance defines your cycle.

Click To Visit Pepeto Website To Enter The Presale

FAQs

What is the xrp price prediction for 2026?

Analyst Ali Martinez forecasts XRP could reach $4, with bullish targets at $5 to $6. Pepeto at presale pricing targets over 150x to a market cap the same cofounder already achieved.

Can XRP reach $10 before Pepeto reaches the same level?

XRP at $10 is a 7x move analysts place in 2029 or 2030. Pepeto carries the same supply that took Pepe to $11 billion, making the distance much shorter.

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Is Pepeto a better entry than the xrp price prediction right now?

The Pepeto official website offers a presale where matching Pepe’s market cap is over 150x, something the xrp price prediction from $1.39 cannot produce this cycle.


Disclaimer: This is a Press Release provided by a third party who is responsible for the content. Please conduct your own research before taking any action based on the content.

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