Thailand is experiencing its most significant foreign capital flight in years, with bond outflows exceeding $1 billion in March 2026, marking the largest selloff since 2022. This mass exit is driven by escalating geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, which have prompted global investors to retreat from emerging markets in favor of safer assets.

The resulting surge in oil prices has intensified concerns regarding inflation and widening current-account deficits, leading to substantial losses for international investors in both Thai bonds and equities.

Key Points

• Global funds offloaded more than $1 billion in Thai bonds in March, putting the market on track for its largest foreign selloff in four years.
• On a single Friday, overseas investors withdrew $1.2 billion from the bond market and an additional $1.2 billion from Thai equities.
• The retreat is primarily attributed to regional instability in the Middle East, which has caused money managers to de-risk their portfolios.
• Rising oil prices are a major concern for the Thai economy, as they threaten to drive up inflation and negatively impact the national current-account balance.
• Thai bonds have delivered an 8.5% loss to dollar-based investors on a hedged basis this month, while the domestic stock market has declined by over 8%.

Overseas investors withdrew a total of $1.2 billion from Thai bonds on Friday, March 20, 2026. This sell-off was the largest single-day withdrawal from the market since March 2022.

According to data from the Thai Bond Market Association, this significant exit is part of a broader trend where global funds dumped over $1 billion in Thai debt throughout March. The withdrawal coincides with escalating Middle East tensions, which have fanned inflation worries and pushed investors toward safe-haven assets. Beyond the bond market, overseas investors also offloaded $1.2 billion in Thai equities on the same day, marking the largest stock sell-off in two years.

The Bank of Thailand and market strategists note that these capital outflows are pressuring the Thai baht, which tested a nine-month low recently. Analysts suggest that the combination of high oil prices and widening current-account deficits has made emerging markets like Thailand less attractive to global money managers. While some officials remain confident in domestic stability, the Social Security Fund recently breached its risk limits for the first time in two years due to this market volatility.

What is the percentage loss for dollar-based Thai bond investors?

Thai bonds have delivered an 8.5% loss to dollar-based investors on a hedged basis in March 2026. This performance ranks among the worst in the region as global funds exit emerging markets due to escalating Middle East tensions.

The baht has faced significant downward pressure, testing a nine-month low of 33 per US dollar as investors shift toward safe-haven assets. Analysts at K-Research suggest the currency could weaken further to 33.50 per dollar this week due to rising US bond yields and geopolitical instability. Meanwhile, the Social Security Fund reported breaching its 8% value-at-risk threshold for the first time in two years following the market turmoil.

Middle East tensions have triggered a significant “risk-off” sentiment across global emerging markets, leading to substantial capital outflows as investors favor the US dollar and other safe-haven assets. This shift has particularly impacted Asian equities, which have seen a reversal of the “Sell America, Buy Asia” strategy due to the region’s heavy reliance on energy imports through the Strait of Hormuz.

Economists warn that a prolonged conflict could result in stagflation, a condition of high inflation and stagnant growth driven by surging oil and gas prices. Emerging economies like Thailand and India are especially vulnerable to cost-push inflation and trade deficits as the cost of importing crude oil, which has topped $100 a barrel, significantly increases production and logistics expenses.

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Amid rising geopolitical tensions and volatile commodity prices, investors are navigating an increasingly complex global landscape in 2026.

Deepak Jorwal, Head of Products at Motilal Oswal Private Wealth, highlights that developments ranging from conflicts impacting trade routes to fluctuations in crude oil prices are emerging as key risks that could influence inflation, interest rates, and overall market sentiment.

While such uncertainties may trigger short-term volatility, Jorwal emphasizes the importance of staying disciplined, maintaining diversified portfolios, and using global allocation and rebalancing strategies to navigate these evolving risks effectively. Edited Excerpts –

Q) Geopolitical tensions seem to be escalating across regions. How should global investors interpret these developments from a macro and market perspective?

A) Over the past few years, global markets have had to navigate several geopolitical flashpoints—from the Russia–Ukraine conflict to the ongoing tensions in the Middle East.

These events matter primarily because of their impact on energy supply, trade routes and global supply chains, which in turn influence inflation and growth expectations.

These in-turn also affect the monetary & fiscal policies. For example, the Strait of Hormuz carries nearly 20% of the world’s oil supply, so any disruption there can quickly push crude prices higher and influence global inflation expectations.

Similarly, tensions that affect key shipping routes can increase freight costs and disrupt supply chains, creating short-term uncertainty for businesses and markets.However, from a market perspective, history suggests that geopolitical shocks tend to create short-term volatility rather than long-term structural damage.
Over the past 25 years, multiple global conflicts have triggered corrections and heightened volatility, yet the market has in most cases delivered double-digit returns over the following 12–24 months as uncertainty gradually eased and economic fundamentals reasserted themselves.
For long-term investors, these periods often present the most compelling opportunities to accumulate high-quality businesses at attractive valuations. The key is navigate such periods with discipline, patience, and courage.

As the uncertainty eventually settles—as they always do—those who stayed invested and acted decisively during the turbulence are typically the ones who emerge strongest.

However, geo-political uncertainty has become more frequent than earlier. Hence, the need is to construct the portfolio across asset classes to have diversification, following the investment charter and remain committed to that while managing strategic and tactical allocation inline with one’s objective.

Q) Historically, markets tend to react sharply to geopolitical shocks but recover quickly. Is it time to diversify globally and which markets are looking attractive?
A) Global diversification is becoming increasingly relevant for Indian investors, not just from a return perspective but also for currency and opportunity diversification.

While India remains structurally strong—with GDP growth of ~6–7% and healthy earnings outlook—it represents only a small share of global market capitalisation, whereas markets like the MSCI World Index are heavily dominated by the United States at ~60–65%. This highlights the need to look beyond domestic markets to access a broader opportunity set.

A key driver is also currency diversification—investing globally allows exposure to stronger currencies like the US dollar, which can help hedge against long-term rupee depreciation.

Markets like the US, Taiwan, South Korea, and Japan offer access to sectors such as AI, semiconductors, and advanced manufacturing—areas where India has limited representation.

The idea is not to replace India exposure but to complement it—combining India’s domestic growth story with global innovation and sector leaders. This balanced approach helps improve portfolio resilience while capturing growth opportunities across geographies.

Q) How could rising crude oil prices and commodity volatility reshape the global investment landscape?
A) Rising crude oil prices and commodity volatility can significantly reshape the global investment landscape by influencing inflation, growth, and capital flows.

For India, which imports over 85% of its crude needs, sustained high oil prices typically lead to higher inflation, a wider current account deficit, and pressure on the rupee due to increased dollar demand.

This can weigh on consumption and delay interest rate cuts, impacting overall market sentiment. Globally, elevated energy prices tend to keep inflation sticky, limiting central banks’ ability to ease monetary policy and potentially slowing economic growth.

However, the impact is uneven—energy-exporting economies benefit from higher prices, while import-dependent countries face macro pressures. This divergence is important for global asset allocation.

At the same time, commodity dynamics are being reshaped by structural trends. The energy transition and electrification are driving demand for materials like copper, lithium, and nickel, while oil and gas remain critical in the near term.

Additionally, the rapid growth of AI and data centres is increasing global energy demand, linking technology growth more closely with power and commodity markets.

From an investment perspective, this environment is leading to greater interest in real assets and commodities as both inflation hedges and structural plays.

Gold continues to act as a safe haven during geopolitical uncertainty, while metals linked to clean energy and infrastructure are gaining traction.

Overall, commodity volatility is pushing investors toward more diversified portfolios that balance traditional assets with exposure to energy, metals, and global macro themes.

Q) What role does rebalancing play during volatile periods when asset prices move sharply due to geopolitical shocks?
A) Rebalancing is a key discipline during volatile periods, as sharp market moves can quickly shift portfolios away from their intended allocation.

We typically recommend rebalancing either periodically or when allocations deviate by around 5–10%.

This helps investors trim assets that have risen sharply and redeploy into areas that have corrected, enforcing a “buy low, sell high” approach.

Volatility also creates opportunities to add to fundamentally strong assets that may have fallen due to market sentiment rather than real weakness. Over time, consistent rebalancing improves portfolio stability and enhances risk-adjusted returns.

Q) How can investors use ETFs to achieve better asset allocation across equities, debt, gold and international markets?
A) ETFs have become a practical way to build diversified portfolios across equities, debt, gold, and international markets, offering broad exposure in a transparent and relatively low-cost format.

However, investors need to be mindful of a few practical aspects. Liquidity is critical—while large ETFs trade efficiently, less liquid ones can have wider bid-ask spreads, especially for sizeable investments.

Prices may also deviate from the underlying value due to demand-supply dynamics, particularly in volatile markets or in segments like debt , international ETFs.

In addition, ETFs require a demat and trading account, and investors incur brokerage costs on every transaction, which can add up over time compared to some traditional products.

When these factors—liquidity, pricing efficiency, and transaction costs—are carefully considered, ETFs can be effective tools for disciplined asset allocation and portfolio rebalancing.

Q) Which global ETF themes—such as technology, semiconductors, or global indices—do you believe investors should track in the current environment?
A) As investors rethink allocations amid shifting global dynamics, international exposure serves as a valuable complement to India’s structural growth story.

Select global markets offer reasonable valuations, attractive earnings growth potential, and increasing institutional participation, making them compelling for long-term investors.

A balanced approach could include large, stable economies like diversified basket of Emerging Markets, US and thematic ETFs focused on AI, semiconductors, defence, blockchain tech and other high-growth sectors, rather than taking overly granular or speculative bets.

US continues to account for the largest share of global equity market capitalisation and houses many of the world’s leading technology companies. Emerging markets present a good mix of technology, commodities and consumption growth stories. China (~25% weight in EM basket) continues to be one of the largest economies in the world and a major driver of global manufacturing and commodity demand.

Q) Ideally what percentage of capital should be diversified globally for someone who is 30–40 years old? And if someone wants to deploy fresh capital what would you advise?
A) For Indian investors, allocating around 10% of the equity portfolio to global markets is a sensible approach, regardless of age.

The benefits—access to opportunities not available in India, hedge against currency depreciation or benefit from it, and broader diversification to reduce risk—apply to all investors.

This global allocation can be spread across Emerging Market ETFs, broad US market ETFs, and thematic ETFs focused on technology, AI, semiconductors, and data centres, offering both structural growth and exposure to global innovation.

For deploying fresh capital, a staggered investment approach is recommended to manage market volatility.

Investors can leverage the Liberalised Remittance Scheme (LRS), which allows outward investment of up to $250,000 per financial year, or newer platforms through GIFT City, which are gradually broadening access to global markets.

This approach helps investors systematically build meaningful global exposure while maintaining India as the core of the portfolio.

(Disclaimer: Recommendations, suggestions, views, and opinions given by experts are their own. These do not represent the views of the Economic Times)

NEW YORK — The Nasdaq Composite Index tumbled more than 2% on Friday, March 20, 2026, closing at 21,647.61 after shedding 443.08 points, as escalating U.S.-Israeli military actions against Iran drove oil prices higher and fueled investor fears of prolonged economic disruption. The decline marked the tech-focused benchmark’s steepest single-day drop in recent weeks and contributed to a fourth consecutive weekly loss for major U.S. equities.

The sell-off accelerated throughout the trading session, with the index opening around 21,989 and dipping as low as 21,522.75 before a modest late-day recovery failed to offset broad-based losses. Heavyweights in artificial intelligence, semiconductors and data storage bore the brunt, reflecting concerns that higher energy costs could crimp corporate profits and slow AI infrastructure buildouts.

Nvidia Corp. and Microsoft Corp. led the retreat among mega-cap tech names, with losses exacerbating the Nasdaq’s underperformance relative to broader indexes. The S&P 500 fell 1.51% to close at 6,506.48, down 100.01 points, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average declined 0.96%, or 443.96 points, to 45,577.47. The CBOE Volatility Index, or VIX, often called Wall Street’s fear gauge, spiked 11.31% to 26.78, signaling heightened market anxiety.

The primary catalyst was the ongoing conflict in the Middle East, now in its fourth week, which has sent Brent crude surging toward $114 per barrel in recent sessions. Investors worried that sustained high oil prices could reignite inflation pressures, complicate Federal Reserve policy and pressure consumer spending. Reports of intensified U.S.-Israeli strikes on Iranian targets amplified risk aversion, with energy-sensitive sectors showing relative resilience while growth-oriented tech stocks suffered.

“Geopolitics is dominating right now,” said one market strategist in comments echoed across trading floors. “Oil at these levels is a tax on the economy, and tech, with its high valuations and energy-intensive data centers, feels it most acutely.”

Semiconductor and hardware plays were particularly hard hit. Micron Technology Inc. dropped sharply amid broader sector weakness, while other chip-related names faced selling pressure. Constellation Energy and data storage firms like Western Digital and Seagate Technology also posted steep declines, as traders reassessed growth prospects in an environment of elevated input costs.

The Nasdaq’s performance contrasted with pockets of strength elsewhere. Energy stocks held up better, benefiting from the oil rally, while some defensive sectors provided limited cushion. However, the tech-heavy composition of the index—dominated by the so-called Magnificent Seven—left it vulnerable to any shift away from growth bets.

Broader market context showed stocks teetering near correction territory, defined as a 10% drop from recent highs. The Nasdaq had already given back significant ground in prior sessions, with weekly declines piling up as investors digested mixed economic signals and persistent inflation worries. Year-to-date, the index remained positive but well off its peaks, reflecting a choppy 2026 so far.

President Donald Trump’s administration added volatility through public statements on the conflict. Comments suggesting “productive” talks with Iran briefly lifted futures in after-hours trading on March 22 previews, with some reports indicating Dow futures jumping significantly on hopes of de-escalation. However, skepticism persisted about the veracity and immediacy of any breakthrough, keeping traders cautious heading into the March 23 open.

Analysts noted that while diplomatic overtures could provide relief, the market’s reaction underscored deeper concerns about supply chain disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz and potential retaliatory actions. U.S. Navy assurances of escorting tankers offered some reassurance, but not enough to reverse Friday’s momentum.

Tech sector leaders remained in focus. Nvidia, a bellwether for AI enthusiasm, faced renewed scrutiny as higher energy costs threatened to slow hyperscaler spending on GPUs. Microsoft, with its cloud and AI ambitions, similarly contended with margin pressures. The Nasdaq-100, a subset of the Composite, fell 1.88% to 23,898.15 on March 20, underscoring the concentrated pain in large-cap growth.

Looking ahead, investors eyed upcoming economic data, including any fresh inflation readings or Fed commentary, for clues on interest rate paths. Persistent high oil could force the central bank into a tighter stance, further challenging rate-sensitive tech valuations.

Despite the dour session, some observers pointed to oversold conditions as a potential setup for a rebound if geopolitical headlines improve. “Markets hate uncertainty, but they’ve priced in a lot of bad news already,” one trader noted. “Any sign of cooling in the Middle East could spark a sharp relief rally.”

For now, the Nasdaq’s slide highlighted the index’s sensitivity to macro shocks in an era where technology underpins much of economic growth. With oil volatility and war risks lingering, traders braced for continued choppiness as the week drew to a close.

The March 20 close left the Nasdaq down roughly 5-6% over the prior month in some calculations, erasing earlier gains tied to AI optimism. As March 23 trading approached in Asian and European sessions, futures signaled potential opening volatility, with pre-market indications mixed amid evolving news on Iran talks.

Wall Street’s mood remained guarded, balancing hopes for diplomacy against the reality of elevated risks. The tech-driven Nasdaq, long a barometer of innovation and risk appetite, once again proved most exposed to global turbulence.

This article was written by

Oil prices moved higher in early Tuesday trade as supply concerns resurfaced after Iran denied engaging in talks with the United States to end the Gulf conflict. This pushed back against U.S. President Donald Trump’s claim that a deal could be within reach.

In a post on Truth Social, Donald Trump said the United States and Iran had engaged in “very good and productive conversations” aimed at a complete resolution of hostilities, adding that all planned strikes on power plants and energy infrastructure would be deferred for five days.

Crude oil price on March 24

Brent crude futures rose $1.06, or 1.1%, to $101 a barrel at 0001 GMT. U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) gained $1.58, or 1.8%, to $89.71.The rebound follows a sharp selloff on Monday, when crude dropped more than 10%. The decline came after Trump said he had ordered a five-day pause on planned strikes against Iran’s power infrastructure and indicated that “productive talks” with unnamed Iranian officials had yielded major points of agreement.

Despite the temporary pause in military action, concerns around the Strait of Hormuz persist. The ongoing conflict has effectively disrupted shipments of nearly one-fifth of global oil and liquefied natural gas passing through the key waterway.
Tehran has strongly denied any contact with Washington, calling the claims an attempt to influence financial markets. Iran’s Revolutionary Guards also said fresh attacks had been carried out on U.S. targets, dismissing Trump’s remarks as “worn-out psychological operations.”

Where are prices headed?

As per a Reuters report, international brokerage Macquarie has said that even if tensions ease in the near term, oil prices are likely to find support in the $85–$90 range, with a gradual move back toward $110 until normal flows through the Strait of Hormuz resume. The note added that if disruptions persist through April, Brent could still climb to $150 per barrel.

Meanwhile, the conflict continues to damage energy infrastructure across the region. Recent strikes hit a gas company office and a pressure-reduction facility in Isfahan. A separate projectile struck a gas pipeline supplying a power station in Khorramshahr, as reported by Iran’s semi-official Fars news agency.

(Disclaimer: The recommendations, suggestions, views, and opinions given by the experts are their own. These do not represent the views of The Economic Times.)