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Saudi Arabia Loses $300 Billion in Stock Market Value Amid Gulf Oil War Escalation

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Brian Armstrong's Bold Prediction: AI Agents Will Soon Dominate Global Financial

TLDR:

  • Saudi Arabia lost $300 billion in stock market value within 25 days of Gulf conflict escalating regionally.
  • Brent crude trading at $90–$110 per barrel turns infrastructure losses into net windfall revenue for Riyadh.
  • Saudi’s Red Sea bypass pipeline positions the kingdom as the dominant exporter while Hormuz stays closed.
  • MBS continues lobbying Washington for Iran strikes despite Iranian drones hitting Saudi refineries each night.

Saudi Arabia has lost $300 billion in stock market value across 25 days of Gulf conflict. The Tadawul index fell 12 percent in the opening week.

Iranian drone strikes shut down Ras Tanura, the kingdom’s largest refinery, which processes 550,000 barrels daily. Regional output losses reached 10 million barrels per day by March 12.

Despite this damage, Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman continues pushing Washington for more action against Tehran. The kingdom now serves as the conflict’s victim, beneficiary, and accelerant at once.

Saudi Arabia Bears the Costs While Oil Revenue Climbs

Saudi Arabia’s Vision 2030 megaprojects are currently under formal government review. Capital outflows have risen, and investor confidence has declined sharply in recent weeks.

The Crown Prince spent a decade building the very infrastructure now absorbing nightly drone strikes. Eastern Province oil fields have also taken direct hits alongside the Ras Tanura shutdown.

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Analyst Shanaka Anslem Perera described the situation on X with pointed directness. He wrote that Saudi Arabia is “simultaneously the war’s victim, its beneficiary, and its accelerant.”

Interceptor stockpiles defending Saudi airspace are drawing down at a steady pace. Each successful Iranian strike raises fresh questions about the kingdom’s long-term air defense capacity.

Meanwhile, Brent crude is trading between $90 and $110 per barrel on global markets. Saudi Arabia’s national budget was originally calculated on oil at $65 to $70 per barrel.

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Every barrel sold above that level adds windfall revenue to the Saudi treasury. At $110 Brent, the kingdom earns a surplus on every barrel it can still export.

Goldman Sachs had forecast a widening fiscal gap before the conflict began. At $80 Brent, that deficit narrows to between 3 and 3.5 percent of GDP.

The war damaging Saudi refineries is simultaneously pushing oil prices well above budget assumptions. Both the losses and the gains appear on the same national balance sheet at once.

Saudi Arabia Gains Structural Ground as Hormuz Stays Contested

Saudi Arabia holds between 2 and 3 million barrels per day of spare production capacity. It also operates an East-West pipeline that bypasses the Strait of Hormuz entirely.

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That pipeline routes crude directly to the Yanbu terminal on the Red Sea. Kuwait, Bahrain, and Qatar have no comparable alternative export infrastructure available.

Qatar’s Ras Laffan facility cannot be rebuilt or restored for at least five years. Saudi Arabia’s Red Sea route has become the most critical active export pipeline in the world.

The New York Times reported that MBS sees a “historic opportunity to remake the region.” Saudi Arabia’s Foreign Minister has also publicly stated that the kingdom’s patience is “not unlimited.”

MBS has called Trump multiple times, lobbying for continued military pressure on Iran. Each American strike generates fresh Iranian retaliation against Gulf energy infrastructure in response.

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That retaliation pushes oil prices higher, which funds the next Saudi lobbying push in Washington. This cycle has no exit point while MBS continues treating the conflict as strategic opportunity.

Saudi Arabia is positioned to dominate the post-war energy market as regional rivals weaken. A diminished Iran cuts OPEC competition for Riyadh directly going forward.

Qatar’s delayed North Field expansion benefits Saudi gas over the medium term. Every producer dependent on Hormuz concedes further competitive ground to Saudi Arabia’s Red Sea route.

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Bitcoin (BTC) price, stocks rise as dollar weakens, oil falls: Crypto Daybook Americas

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CD20

By Omkar Godbole (All times ET unless indicated otherwise)

Bitcoin and the broader crypto market are holding firm alongside U.S. stock futures as oil prices, bond yields and the Dollar Index ease on signs that ceasefire talks between the U.S. and Iran could begin as early as Thursday.

Still, nothing is confirmed, and it may be too soon to position for a full return to normalcy, according to some observers.

“We are not geopolitical experts, but we would have thought Iran would have maximum leverage of high energy prices going into any negotiation,” analysts at ING said. “Thus, it is probably too early to expect any big drop in energy prices or a much softer dollar this week.”

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Skepticism remains on the Iranian side as well. According to Axios, officials have told Pakistan, Egypt and Turkey that recent U.S. military movements have deepened suspicions that Trump’s peace proposal may be just a ruse.

Macro conditions are also turning less supportive. The U.S. money market curve has now priced out any Fed easing this year, a sharp shift from earlier expectations of at least two 25-basis-point cuts, which were seen as a key bullish catalyst for BTC and other risk assets.

On the crypto front, the news flow hasn’t helped either. Circle Internet’s (CRCL) stock slid Tuesday after a leaked draft of the Clarity Act suggested limits on paying interest on idle stablecoin balances. Meanwhile, Arkham Intelligence reported that Bhutan may be selling roughly $30 million worth of BTC, with the government still holding 4,453 coins valued at about $315.9 million.

Despite these headwinds, bitcoin continues to hold above $70,000, with dips proving short-lived. A market that refuses to fall on negative news often signals underlying strength, potentially setting the stage for a larger move higher. Dynamics of bitcoin’s impending options expiry on Friday point to a potential for a bounce to $75,000. Stay alert!

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Read more: For analysis of today’s activity in altcoins and derivatives, see Crypto Markets Today

What to Watch

For a more comprehensive list of events this week, see CoinDesk’s “Crypto Week Ahead“.

  • Crypto
  • Macro
    • March 25, 8:30 a.m.: U.S. Import Prices MoM for February est. 0.2% (Prev. 0.2%); Export Prices MoM (Prev. 0.6%)
  • Earnings (Estimates based on FactSet data)

Token Events

For a more comprehensive list of events this week, see CoinDesk’s “Crypto Week Ahead“.

  • Governance votes & calls
  • Unlocks
    • March 25: Humanity (H) to unlock 4.19% of its circulating supply worth $10.1 million.
  • Token Launches

Conferences

For a more comprehensive list of events this week, see CoinDesk’s “Crypto Week Ahead“.

Market Movements

  • BTC is up 2.21% from 4 p.m. ET Tuesday at $71,509.33 (24hrs: +0.68%)
  • ETH is up 2.99% at $2,184.78 (24hrs: +1.43%)
  • CoinDesk 20 is up 2.73% at 2,065.01 (24hrs: +0.93%)
  • Ether CESR Composite Staking Rate is down 7 bps at 2.74%
  • BTC funding rate is at 0.0005% (0.4960% annualized) on Binance
CD20
  • DXY is down 0.15% at 99.29
  • Gold futures are up 3.13% at $4,536.90
  • Silver futures are up 4.38% at $72.31
  • Nikkei 225 closed up 2.87% at 53,749.62
  • Hang Seng closed up 1.09% at 25,335.95
  • FTSE 100 is up 0.85% at 10,049.44
  • Euro Stoxx 50 is up 1.39% at 5,658.96
  • DJIA closed on Tuesday down 0.18% at 46,124.06
  • S&P 500 closed down 0.37% at 6,556.37
  • Nasdaq Composite closed down 0.84% at 21,761.89
  • S&P/TSX Composite closed up 0.18% at 31,941.59
  • S&P Latin America 40 closed up 0.43% at 3,480.97
  • U.S. 10-Year Treasury rate is up 6 bps at 4.39%
  • E-mini S&P 500 futures are up 0.68% at 6,651.25
  • E-mini Nasdaq-100 futures are up 0.86% at 24,422.75
  • E-mini Dow Jones Industrial Average futures are up 0.67% at 46,727.00

Bitcoin Stats

  • BTC Dominance: 58.97% (0.16%)
  • Ether-bitcoin ratio: 0.03055 (-0.04%)
  • Hashrate (seven-day moving average): 977 EH/s
  • Hashprice (spot): $33.72
  • Total fees: 2.5 BTC / $175,777
  • CME Futures Open Interest: 116,345 BTC
  • BTC priced in gold: 15.7 oz.
  • BTC vs gold market cap: 4.77%

Technical Analysis

Daily swings in the bitcoin-gold ratio in candlestick format. (TradingView)
Bitcoin-gold ratio. (TradingView)
  • The chart shows daily swings in the bitcoin-gold ratio since July last year.
  • The ratio has bounced 23% this month, signaling bitcoin’s outperformance relative to gold.
  • However, the broader bitcoin bear market is still intact and the ratio had yet to top the trendline representing the slide since August 2025.

Crypto Equities

  • Coinbase Global (COIN): closed on Tuesday at $181.04 (-9.76%), +2.94% at $186.36 in pre-market
  • MARA Holdings (MARA): closed at $8.25 (-7.41%), +3.52% at $8.54
  • Riot Platforms (RIOT): closed at $14.33 (-0.28%), +2.72% at $14.72
  • Core Scientific (CORZ): closed at $16.85 (+1.63%), +2.43% at $17.26
  • CleanSpark (CLSK): closed at $9.58 (-4.01%), +2.61% at $9.83
  • Exodus Movement, Inc. (EXOD): closed at $7.20 (-11.33%), +6.39% at $7.66
  • CoinShares Bitcoin Mining ETF (WGMI): closed at $38.87 (-1.35%)
  • Circle Internet Group (CRCL): closed at $101.17 (-20.11%), +3.04% at $104.25
  • Bullish (BLSH): closed at $37.37 (-5.51%), +1.61% at $37.97

Crypto Treasury Companies

  • Strategy (MSTR): closed at $136.25 (-1.41%), +2.97% at $140.29
  • Sharplink (SBET): closed at $7.17 (-4.53%), +3.63% at $7.43
  • Galaxy Digital (GLXY): closed at $21.30 (-1.84%), +2.58% at $21.85
  • Strive Asset Management, LLC (ASST): closed at $9.93 (-4.89%), +2.01% at $10.13
  • Upexi (UPXI): closed at $1.11 (-5.13%), +2.70% at $1.14
  • Lite Strategy (LITS): closed at $1.20 (+1.69%)

ETF Flows

Spot BTC ETFs

  • Daily net flows: -$66.6 million
  • Cumulative net flows: $56.31 billion
  • Total BTC holdings ~1.29 million

Spot ETH ETFs

  • Daily net flows: -$40.7 million
  • Cumulative net flows: $11.7 billion
  • Total ETH holdings ~5.79 million

Source: Farside Investors

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Alphabet (GOOGL) Shares Fall to 2026 Low

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Alphabet (GOOGL) Shares Fall to 2026 Low

As the chart shows, Alphabet (GOOGL) shares have dropped to their lowest level of 2026, with trading closing well below the psychological $300 per share mark.

Why Have Alphabet (GOOGL) Shares Declined?

The bearish move is driven by a combination of factors, including:

→ Escalating geopolitical tensions. With the prospect of a prolonged US conflict with Iran becoming more relevant, market participants may be reducing exposure to risk assets, favouring stability instead. Technology stocks are particularly vulnerable in such an environment.

→ In March, it was reported that Alphabet plans to allocate $175–185 billion to AI infrastructure this year. These expenditures could weigh on profit margins, while a quick return on investment is far from guaranteed.

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In addition, media reports point to pressure from antitrust regulators, downward revisions to price targets by analysts, and share sales by GOOGL executives. Meanwhile, the chart and volume analysis highlight a significant shift in market sentiment.

Technical Analysis of GOOGL Shares

Note the price behaviour during periods of exceptionally high trading volumes. The arrows indicate:

→ A move above the $300 psychological level accompanied by a bullish gap — a sign of emotional buying momentum that gradually faded.

→ A sharp decline in February on very high volumes, suggesting that bears attempted to seize control. The formation of lower highs and lower lows confirms their success.

Yesterday, GOOGL opened with a bearish gap and closed at the low of a wide candle — a clear sign that sellers are strengthening their grip.

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Bulls need to regain control quickly; otherwise, if bearish dominance persists:

→ Alphabet (GOOGL) shares may continue to decline within the red descending channel;
→ The $300 level could act as psychological resistance during any recovery attempts;
→ A move towards the $250 level cannot be ruled out.

Buy and sell stocks of the world’s biggest publicly-listed companies with CFDs on FXOpen’s trading platform. Open your FXOpen account now or learn more about trading share CFDs with FXOpen.

This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.

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Pump.fun Tightens Creator Fee Controls in New Update

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Pump.fun Tightens Creator Fee Controls in New Update

Memecoin launchpad Pump.fun introduced a new restriction on creator fee settings, limiting token deployers to a single post-launch change in how fees are distributed on the platform. 

In a post on X, Pump.fun co-founder Alon Cohen said the update aims to reduce “griefing” — where creators alter fee recipients after a token gains traction — and other forms of manipulation tied to fee redirection, where token creators can alter who receives fees after a coin gains traction. 

Under the change, each token will have one opportunity to redirect creator fees to a different wallet, after which the configuration becomes permanently locked. 

Pump.fun’s latest update follows a broader overhaul announced in January, when the platform acknowledged that its creator-fee model had skewed incentives by disproportionately rewarding token deployers over traders.

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Source: Alon Cohen

Pump.fun’s broader attempts to shift incentives to traders

On Jan. 10, the platform introduced changes like multi-wallet distribution and post-launch controls, aiming to improve transparency and better align rewards with trading activity. 

On Feb. 17, Pump.fun introduced “Cashback Coins,” requiring creators to choose at launch whether fees go to themselves or are redirected to traders, with that high-level model locked in once selected. 

The change aimed to rebalance the distribution of rewards between token deployers and traders. However, while the overall fee model was fixed at launch, creators or coin admins could still adjust the specific wallets receiving those fees and how they were distributed after a token went live.

Related: ‘Hawk Tuah’ girl Haliey Welch says memecoin implosion ‘traumatized’ her

This meant that even if the model didn’t change, the underlying recipients could, creating potential trust issues for traders. The latest update narrows that flexibility by allowing only a single post-launch change to fee recipients, after which the configuration is permanently locked.

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Early community reactions suggest the change may do little to address broader trading dynamics on the platform. X user gake said the change might not help much, while another user, tom, described it as a “drop in the bucket” that shows the team is at least acknowledging the issue.

Pump.fun activity drops as fees and volume fall year over year

Pump.fun’s shift in its incentive structure comes as its fees have declined from their peak. DefiLlama data shows that in January 2026, the platform recorded $31.8 million in fees, down about 75% from $148 million in January 2025, its best-performing month to date.

In February 2026, the platform recorded $25 million in revenue, down 66% from nearly $75 million in February 2025.

Pump.fun’s monthly revenue chart. Source: DefiLlama

The platform’s trading volume has followed a similar pattern. According to DefiLlama, Pump.fun recorded monthly volume of over $11.6 billion in January 2025, which fell to about $2.1 billion in January 2026, a decline of roughly 81%.

In February 2026, monthly volume totaled about $1.91 billion, down 68% from $6.1 billion in February 2025.

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