Crypto World
Bitcoin returns to $71K as SIREN rebounds and XLM tops majors now
Bitcoin (BTC) rose back to around $71,000 on March 25 after falling below $69,000 a day earlier, as traders reacted to fresh uncertainty linked to the Middle East conflict.
Summary
- Bitcoin rebounded to $71,000 after renewed conflict reports pushed prices below $69,000, unsettling broader markets.
- XLM and HYPE outperformed major tokens, while Ethereum, BNB, XRP, and Solana recorded smaller gains.
- SIREN rebounded above $2 after a sharp plunge, extending volatility and drawing fresh community scrutiny.
The recovery added to a mixed market session in which most large-cap altcoins posted limited daily moves. The broader crypto market also moved higher. Total market capitalization added about $20 billion in one day and approached $2.53 trillion, while Bitcoin’s market share held near 56.5%.
Bitcoin faced pressure over the past week after it failed to hold the $76,000 level. The pullback pushed the asset down to $69,000 last Thursday, with market sentiment turning cautious after the Federal Reserve kept interest rates unchanged and geopolitical tension increased.
The asset later bounced to $71,000 over the weekend, but another wave of selling followed after Donald Trump made statements about Iran. Bitcoin then fell back to $69,000 on Tuesday before recovering again to around $71,000 at press time.
The latest price swings came as traders responded to reports tied to the Middle East conflict. Trump said he would “pause all military actions against Iran’s power plants” and claimed both sides had reached a “deal.”
Iranian officials rejected those claims, which added more uncertainty to the market. Bitcoin briefly moved higher after Trump’s remarks, then lost momentum after the denial and the release of more disputed reports from the war front.
Altcoins Post Mixed Daily Performance
Most major altcoins traded in a narrow range during the session. Ethereum moved close to $2,200 after a small daily gain, while BNB neared $650. XRP held the $1.40 support level, and Solana climbed back above $90.
Among the larger-cap assets, Stellar posted one of the strongest gains. XLM rose about 8% to $0.18, while HYPE advanced more than 6% and traded above $40.
SIREN remained one of the most active tokens in the market. The AI-linked asset had surged to a record high of $3.65 after several triple-digit moves, then dropped by more than 70% before rebounding again.
At press time, SIREN traded near $2.20 after gaining more than 100% in one day. The move came as community members continued to question the token’s purpose and wallet concentration.
Disclosure: This article does not represent investment advice. The content and materials featured on this page are for educational purposes only.
- Bitcoin price falls below $70,000 as network activity weakens.
- Declining transactions and addresses signal lower demand.
- Key support is at $69,400, while resistance stands near $71,600.
Bitcoin price today hit a daily low of $69,914.54 after soaring above $71,000 at the start of the week, following news of a truce proposal to Iran by US President Donald Trump.
The sudden pullback has pushed Bitcoin back below the $70,000 level, a psychological zone that traders often watch closely for signs of strength or weakness.
This decline did not happen in isolation, as the underlying data suggests that the broader network is also losing momentum.
Bitcoin Network Activity signals weakening demand
Recent on-chain data shows that Bitcoin’s Network Activity Index continues to trend downward, pointing to a steady cooling in user participation.
This index tracks a combination of key metrics that together reveal how actively the network is being used daily.
Among these metrics are active addresses, which measure how many unique participants are sending or receiving Bitcoin.
A decline in active addresses often signals reduced interest or engagement from both retail users and larger players.
Transaction counts have also softened, indicating that fewer transfers are taking place across the network.
This drop in transaction activity suggests that demand for block space is easing, which usually aligns with quieter market conditions.
Another important indicator, the UTXO count, reflects how coins are being distributed and reused, and its slowdown points to less frequent movement of funds.
Block data, including the number of bytes per block, further confirms that network usage is not as intense as it was during more active periods.
On-chain activity is still cooling off 📉
Bitcoin’s CryptoQuant Network Activity Index keeps declining, pointing to weaker demand across the network.
Key indicators tracked:
• Active addresses (sending + receiving)
• Transactions (total & per block)
• UTXO count
• Bytes per… pic.twitter.com/U4aSKjz2Pk— Maartunn (@JA_Maartun) March 24, 2026
Taken together, these signals paint a clear picture of declining demand rather than temporary disruption.
The BTC price struggles mirror on-chain weakness
The recent dip below $70,000 appears to be more than just a reaction to short-term news or macro headlines.
Instead, it reflects a broader lack of strong buying pressure needed to sustain higher price levels.
Even though Bitcoin managed to climb earlier in the week, the rally lacked the support of rising network activity.
This disconnect between price and usage often leads to corrections, as the market struggles to justify higher valuations.
Short-term performance data also shows mild losses across multiple timeframes, reinforcing the idea that momentum is fading.
While the market has not entered a sharp sell-off, the gradual decline suggests a slow shift in sentiment.
Investors seem to be taking a more cautious approach, with fewer participants actively entering the market.
At the same time, existing holders appear less willing to move their coins, contributing to the drop in transactional activity.
The key Bitcoin price levels to watch in the coming days
Bitcoin is now approaching a critical zone where price action in the coming days could define its short-term direction.
Notably, most technical indicators are leaning bearish, with Bitcoin trading below major exponential moving averages on the daily chart.
This positioning suggests that the broader trend remains under pressure unless the price can reclaim key moving averages.
Currently, the most important level to watch is $69,423, which now acts as immediate support for the market.
If this support holds, it could allow Bitcoin to regain strength and attempt a push toward the first major resistance at $71,645.
If buyers manage to break above $71,645, momentum may build toward the next resistance level at $73,687.
A stronger rally could then open the door for a test of $75,930, which stands as the third key resistance level in the current structure.
On the downside, failure to hold above $69,423 would weaken the current structure and expose Bitcoin to further losses.
In that scenario, analysts note that the next support would be $67,167.
The news to watch
From a macro perspective, traders should closely watch the upcoming inflation data, particularly the PCE print expected early next month.
A softer reading below 2.8% could support risk assets and provide Bitcoin with a chance to recover.
On the other hand, a higher-than-expected figure above 3% may add pressure and push prices lower.
US lawmakers have introduced a bill aiming to ban members of the US Congress, the president and other high-ranking government officials from wagering on prediction markets.
The proposed bill, a bipartisan effort from US Representative Adrian Smith and Representative Nikki Budzinski, was introduced on Tuesday and is called the Preventing Real-time Exploitation and Deceptive Insider Congressional Trading Act (PREDICT Act).
“In recent months, we’ve seen instances of little-known traders making massive profits on events ranging from war with Iran to how long a government shutdown will last, raising necessary questions about the use of inside information,” Budzinski said.
The move comes amid growing scrutiny of prediction markets in the US, with lawmakers and regulators taking aim at platforms such as Kalshi and Polymarket over contracts related to sports, war and politics.
The bill seeks to bar members of Congress, the president, vice president and political appointees from wagering on the “outcomes of political events, policy decisions, and other government actions on prediction markets.” It also extends to the spouses and dependents of these government officials.
The potential penalties listed in the PREDICT Act include a 10% fine on the total value of the contract and the disgorgement of all profits to the US Treasury.
Commenting on the bill, Budzinski stressed the importance of closing loopholes to ensure people with inside knowledge “cannot profit from it.”
Budzinski isn’t the only one sounding off on alleged corruption on prediction markets. Earlier this month, two Democratic lawmakers introduced a separate bill called the Banning Event Trading on Sensitive Operations and Federal Functions (BETS OFF) Act.
Speaking about the bill, Senator Chris Murphy alleged that it was likely that people used “inside information” to make bets on US President Donald Trump’s military actions involving Iran.
US lawmakers turn up heat on prediction markets
US lawmakers aren’t just flagging concerns with insider trading on prediction markets. Sports-related contracts have also recently drawn attention at both the federal and state levels.
Cointelegraph reported earlier this week that 11 states have taken legal action against prediction markets, while another two states also have pending legal action in the works.
At the federal level, Sens. John Curtis and Adam Schiff introduced a bill on Monday aiming to ban any Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) registered entity from listing prediction market contracts that resemble “a sports bet or casino-style game.”
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The senators argued that many companies have been offering significant amounts of contracts that “are indistinguishable from gambling” and also took aim at the CFTC for its approach to the sector.
“For fifteen years, the CFTC has enforced its authority to prohibit the listing of a contract that involves, relates to or references ‘gaming.’ However, the CFTC and its chair have abruptly reversed course — intervening in ongoing litigation and proceeding with rulemaking to significantly relax the CFTC’s enforcement of this clause,” they said.
Following the move, both Kalshi and Polymarket, two of the largest prediction market platforms, made efforts to tighten their rules to stop professional athletes and political candidates from wagering on prediction markets.
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Key Highlights
- Record-breaking 33.1% of total ETH supply is currently locked in staking protocols
- Exchange reserves have plummeted to their lowest levels observed since 2016
- Major withdrawal of $1.67 billion worth of ETH from OKX exchange occurred on March 22
- Current ETH trading price hovers around $2,119, facing critical resistance zones at $2,356 and $2,500
- Technical analyst Ali Charts identifies MVRV-based support at $1,655 with upside targets extending to $5,624
A significant supply reduction is underway across the Ethereum network. Multiple on-chain analytics platforms confirm that the amount of ETH held on centralized exchanges has reached its lowest concentration in nearly eight years, while validator participation in staking protocols continues its upward trajectory.
Current figures from staking infrastructure provider Everstake indicate that approximately 38.1 million ETH tokens are now secured in staking contracts. This represents roughly 33.1% of the entire circulating token supply — establishing an all-time high for staking participation.
The validator entry queue currently contains 2,876,752 ETH, requiring prospective validators to wait nearly 50 days before activation. In stark contrast, the exit queue holds a mere 40,504 ETH, with withdrawal processing times under 17 hours.
This significant disparity indicates that ETH is entering staking contracts at a substantially faster pace than it’s being withdrawn. The protocol-enforced churn limit of 256 validators per epoch restricts how rapidly staked tokens can reenter circulation, even if market sentiment shifts dramatically.
Major Exchange Withdrawals Accelerate
Centralized exchange holdings have experienced consistent decline. Market analyst Amr Taha documented a substantial $1.67 billion ETH withdrawal transaction from the OKX platform on March 22. Earlier in February, Binance processed two separate withdrawal events exceeding $300 million each.
On-chain analytics from CryptoQuant reveal that ETH holdings across centralized exchanges have contracted to levels not witnessed since 2016. Specifically, Binance’s ETH reserves are currently positioned near their December 2020 minimum of approximately 3.3 million ETH.
According to Everstake: “This steady reduction in liquid supply, combined with ongoing demand, creates the conditions for a structurally stronger price environment.”
Technical analyst Ali Charts has outlined critical MVRV-derived price zones for ETH. His analysis pinpoints $1,655 as the primary support threshold, $2,356 as the initial major resistance barrier, intermediate objectives at $2,647 and $3,639, and extended upside targets positioned at $4,632 and $5,624.
Critical Price Zones Under Surveillance
Ethereum recently reclaimed the $2,150 level, which technical analyst Ted Pillows highlighted as a crucial threshold on the daily timeframe. He observed that this price action coincided with market volatility stemming from reported diplomatic negotiations between the United States and Iran.
A technical chart shared by analyst Satoshi Flipper presents a dual-phase bullish projection: an initial objective at $2,500, requiring ETH to breach the upper boundary of its current descending channel pattern, followed by an extended target of $4,750 contingent upon a comprehensive trend reversal.
ETH currently trades in the vicinity of $2,119. According to Ali Charts’ MVRV framework, the immediate resistance level warranting close attention is positioned at $2,356.
Bitcoin price fell below the $70,000 mark as traders prepared for a massive Bitcoin options expiry set to occur later today.
Summary
- Bitcoin price slipped to $69,990 ahead of a $18.6 billion crypto options expiry on Deribit, with BTC options accounting for over $14.1 billion in open interest.
- The $75,000 max pain level remains a key magnet as market makers may attempt to steer prices higher to minimize payout obligations.
- Technical indicators remain supportive, but $71,000 resistance and $69,000 support will likely dictate short-term price direction.
According to data from crypto.news, Bitcoin (BTC) price fell roughly 2.5% to $69,990 last check on Friday, March 27, after bulls faced rejection at the $72,000 psychological resistance.
Bitcoin’s price drop can mainly be attributed to market sentiment turning cautious ahead of a massive $18.6 billion options expiry across the crypto market on the crypto exchange Deribit at 08:00 UTC. Out of the total market, Bitcoin options alone account for over $14.1 billion, which represents nearly 40% of the platform’s total open interest.
For context, options are contracts that allow traders to buy or sell an asset at a set price by a specific date. A call option gives the holder the right to buy the asset, while a put option provides the right to sell it.
As such, a Bitcoin options contract gives investors the ability to hedge against volatility or speculate on future price movements. However, traders do not necessarily have to purchase the underlying asset if the price movement does not favor their position.
According to Deribit’s data, the maximum pain price, where the most options would expire and become worthless, lies at $75,000 at a key psychological resistance level.
Analysts note that Bitcoin, currently trading just around $70,000, could gradually move toward the $75,000 level as large institutions or market makers with significant capital attempt to steer the spot price closer to this level in order to minimize payout obligations.
The massive options expiry falls on the same date when U.S. President Donald Trump has set a potential deal with Iran to end the ongoing conflict between them in the Middle East. This follows after Trump revealed that the U.S. would be postponing a military strike on Iran’s infrastructure after he communicated with diplomatic channels, despite Iran’s previous denials of such negotiations.
Today’s massive expiry also coincides with a U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission deadline for 91 crypto ETF filings that could further reshape the institutional landscape.
During previous cycles when large amounts of options expired, the crypto market crashed. However, this time, it remains to be seen if the market will hold steady, especially if the U.S.-Iran deal successfully eases global tension.
On the daily chart, Bitcoin price has respected an ascending trendline that has been acting as a dynamic support for price since its drop in February. As long as Bitcoin price remains above this diagonal floor, it could stay firmly on a bullish path toward new all-time highs.
The SuperTrend indicator showed a green signal on the daily timeframe, which means the broader market trend is still considered positive for buyers. Furthermore, the Chaikin Money Flow index is close to turning positive, a sign that institutional buying pressure is beginning to outweigh selling volume.
For now, $71,000 is the key psychological hurdle that traders will be keeping an eye on during the London and New York sessions. A decisive break above this could trigger a short squeeze that sends BTC price rapidly toward the max pain zone.
On the contrary, $69,000, which aligns with the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement level, could serve as the final line of defense for bulls before a deeper correction toward the $65,000 region.
Disclosure: This article does not represent investment advice. The content and materials featured on this page are for educational purposes only.
Key Highlights
- Bitcoin declined approximately 1%, hovering around $70,712, following reports that Trump privately informed advisors of his desire to conclude the US-Iran conflict within a four to six-week timeframe.
- Tehran dismissed American ceasefire proposals, introducing additional uncertainty into diplomatic negotiations and weighing on risk-sensitive assets.
- Approximately $16 billion worth of Bitcoin and Ethereum options contracts are approaching expiration this Friday, creating near-term market headwinds.
- Chart analysts are monitoring a possible advance toward $80,000, with critical resistance positioned at $71,500.
- Market observer Ali Charts highlighted that speculative investors have exited Bitcoin positions, with the realized cap for new holders reaching levels historically correlated with accumulation cycles.
Bitcoin continues hovering around the $70,000 threshold as international political developments generate near-term volatility in cryptocurrency valuations.
According to reporting from The Wall Street Journal, President Donald Trump has privately communicated to his inner circle his intention to wrap up the ongoing US-Iran military engagement within a four to six-week window. Trump reportedly believes the confrontation is approaching its conclusion and seeks resolution ahead of a scheduled mid-May diplomatic meeting with Chinese President Xi Jinping in Beijing.
Initially scheduled for late March, Trump’s China visit was postponed to May. He reportedly expressed to confidants that the war is diverting his focus from domestic priorities, including preparations for upcoming midterm elections and advocacy for the Safeguard American Voter Eligibility (SAVE America) Act.
Following this development, Bitcoin experienced a roughly 1% decline on Thursday, settling at $70,712. The digital asset fluctuated within a 24-hour band spanning $70,558 to $71,985.
Tehran Dismisses American Peace Proposals
Iran rejected the ceasefire framework proposed by Washington, instead presenting its own requirements for conflict resolution. These stipulations encompass the elimination of all American economic sanctions, financial reparations for conflict-related damages, expanded authority over the Strait of Hormuz, continuation of its ballistic missile initiatives, and assurances preventing future US military intervention.
White House spokesperson Karoline Leavitt issued a forceful statement: “The U.S. will hit Iran harder than they have ever been hit before if Tehran doesn’t make an agreement to end the conflict.”
The diplomatic impasse intensified market ambiguity. Bitcoin had previously experienced upward momentum based on de-escalation expectations, but Iran’s refusal reversed investor sentiment.
Escalating crude oil valuations compounded market pressure, as energy economics have proven to be a significant factor influencing how cryptocurrency markets react to Middle Eastern geopolitical developments.
Derivatives Expiration and Trading Metrics
Over $16 billion in Bitcoin and Ethereum options contracts are scheduled to reach maturity on Friday, an event that has traditionally generated short-duration price fluctuations. Derivatives metrics indicated BTC open interest climbing by $500 million to reach $16.5 billion during the past 24-hour period, while funding rates shifted into positive territory at 0.03%.
Notwithstanding this activity, the recent price movement was predominantly futures-market driven. Spot exchange participation remained subdued, evidenced by a cumulative volume delta of negative $87 million and a declining Coinbase premium indicating weakened American investor demand.
Market analyst Skew characterized Bitcoin’s present situation as a “compression zone,” where contracting price movement could precipitate a significant directional breakthrough. To achieve a sustainable advance beyond $71,500, he emphasized the necessity for robust spot market demand, consistent accumulation patterns, and successful absorption of selling pressure.
A $60 million buy order was executed during the New York trading window, demonstrating some renewed purchasing interest, although analysts emphasize that sustained follow-through remains essential.
Analyst Ali Charts observed on X that Bitcoin’s realized capitalization for recent holders has declined to levels historically associated with the elimination of speculative participants, which in previous market cycles has foreshadowed accumulation periods.
BTC open interest currently registers at $16.5 billion, with the $71,500 threshold remaining the critical level market participants are monitoring.
Crypto exchange Coinbase is reportedly against the latest compromise over stablecoin yields that the Senate is looking to include in its crypto market structure bill.
Coinbase representatives told Senate lawmakers in a meeting Monday that they had concerns over the language around stablecoin yields in the new compromise version of the bill, Punchbowl News reported Wednesday, citing four people briefed on the exchange.
A proposal that circulated earlier this week would have reportedly prevented third parties, such as exchanges, from paying stablecoin yields, a measure aimed at addressing banks’ concerns over the risk of deposit flight.
Coinbase is one of the largest crypto lobbyists in the US, and its withdrawal of support for the bill in January came just before the Senate Banking Committee indefinitely postponed a markup to advance the legislation.
Republican Senator Thom Tillis and Democratic Senator Angela Alsobrooks are leading the latest effort to advance the bill, and talks are reportedly ongoing. Coinbase did not immediately respond to a request for comment.
Yield fight plagues Senate bill
The fight between the crypto and banking lobbies over the Senate’s bill, which aims to outline how regulators should approach crypto, has largely revolved around stablecoin yields.
The White House has hosted at least three meetings for the groups to agree on a compromise, which has yet to materialize.
Banking groups argue that stablecoin yield payments by exchanges are a loophole in the GENIUS Act, which banned stablecoin issuers from paying yield to holders, and present a risk of deposit flight from the banking system.
Stablecoin yields are a major business for crypto exchanges, and the crypto lobby has argued that the risks are overstated and has accused the banks of anticompetitive behavior.
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Republicans are pushing to pass the bill ahead of the midterms, where the makeup of Congress could change and derail momentum around the legislation. The House passed its version of the bill, called the CLARITY Act, in July.
Patrick Witt, the executive director of the President’s Council of Advisors for Digital Assets, posted to X on Wednesday that there was “plenty of uninformed FUD [fear, uncertainty and doubt] circulating on social media this week.”
“It’s all going to work out. Bullish,” he added.
Republican Senator Cynthia Lummis also posted to X on Wednesday that “we can’t wait until 2030 for another chance” to pass the crypto bill.
“Bipartisan compromise is necessary for the Clarity Act to pass,” she added. “We’re working around the clock to ensure stablecoin rewards are protected and to prevent deposit flight from community banks.”
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The UK government is advancing plans for a moratorium on political donations made through cryptocurrencies, following an independent review and pressure from multiple high-ranking politicians.
Cointelegraph reported on Wednesday that the Rycroft Review, an independent inquiry into foreign financial interference in the UK’s political and electoral systems, recommended a moratorium on crypto donations to political parties.
New statements from UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer on Wednesday have confirmed that they will pursue the temporary ban.
“I can tell the House we will act decisively to protect our democracy. That will include a moratorium on all political donations made through cryptocurrencies,” said Starmer during Prime Minister’s Question Time on Wednesday.
Several members of parliament, including the chair of the security committee, have been pushing for a full ban this year, warning that foreign states could exploit crypto payments to influence UK politics.
Under the new measure, crypto will be prohibited for political donations until robust regulations are in place to prevent untraceable funds and foreign interference in UK elections, according to a separate government statement on Wednesday.
Bill still has to pass and become law
The ban would require amending the Representation of the People Bill, and the government said the changes would take “retrospective effect” from March 25.
The legislation is at the committee stage in the House of Commons. It needs to pass through both the House of Commons and the House of Lords, then be approved by King Charles III to become law.
“Once the legislation comes into force, political parties and regulated entities like candidates and MPs will then have 30 days to return any unlawful donations they may have received in the interim, after which enforcement action can be taken,” the government said.
Related: Top UK Labour lawmakers push to ban political donations made in crypto
Reform UK was the first political party in the country to accept crypto donations in May last year, with leader Nigel Farage announcing at the Bitcoin 2025 conference in Las Vegas that the group would accept Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies from eligible donors.
Ban won’t lift until sign off from government
Once the ban comes into force, it won’t lift until “Parliament and the Electoral Commission are satisfied that the regulatory environment is robust enough to ensure confidence and transparency in donations being made in this way.”
The next general election in the UK must be held by Aug. 15, 2029.
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- Visa has joined Canton Network as a super validator.
- The payments giant brings privacy-preserving payments to Canton.
- Canton price hovered near $0.14 on Thursday.
Canton (CC) trades around $0.14, just in the green on the day as the broader cryptocurrency sell-off pressure continues to hinder buyers.
The token’s value has dropped by more than 12% in the past month, with the Iran war and macro headwinds key downside factors.
But analysts are bullish long term, and this outlook could strengthen as Visa boosts adoption by bringing privacy payments to the Canton Network. The global payments giant has joined Canton as a Super Validator.
The partnership extends Visa’s expertise in secure payment processing to blockchain validation.
Why does this matter?
Visa’s entry as a Super Validator on the Canton Network marks a pivotal moment for blockchain adoption in traditional finance.
Potentially, this means momentum for Canton’s native token amid rising institutional interest.
As one of 40 Super Validators, Visa will support banks and financial entities in deploying new on-chain payment flows.
By securing operations on the Canton, Visa aims to bridge traditional finance with decentralized infrastructure, facilitating seamless integration for institutions already reliant on its global network.
Notably, Visa will apply its rigorous standards to Canton operations, allowing banks to explore stablecoin payments, settlement, and treasury functions.
According to Visa, financial institutions can tap into on-chain rails while maintaining existing risk management, compliance, and operational protocols.
That’s because the network’s privacy features address a core barrier for institutions hesitant to adopt public blockchains.
“Many banks see the lack of privacy as a dealbreaker for moving meaningful activity on-chain,” said Rubail Birwadker, global head of growth and partnerships at Visa.
Birwadker added:
“By operating as a Super Validator on Canton Network, we’re bringing Visa-grade trust, governance and operational rigor that define Visa’s global network to privacy‑preserving blockchain infrastructure, so regulated FIs can bring payments on-chain without having to rethink how they operate.”
Canton price outlook
Canton has already achieved broad adoption in capital markets, underpinning tokenized asset issuance and trading for major players.
Visa’s involvement solidifies the path to greater integration of blockchain payments, and for CC, it could be a bullish signal for network utility and token demand.
Canton’s token, which powers network fees, staking, and governance, could benefit from this.
While the token saw muted price action following the news, social chatter is largely optimistic. However, sellers dominate the current market.
From a technical perspective, current prices align with the resistance zone around the 50-day EMA.
Gains could see CC target $0.20, the all-time high reached amid the recent swing high. Yet prices have moved lower since this peak in early February 2026.
This suggests potential downward momentum before oversold conditions. Primary support levels lie around $0.10.
Crypto World
Some indicators are still going the wrong way, challenging the bullish $70,000 holdout narrative
What do you call a market that consistently shrugs off headlines that usually send it tumbling? You call it resilient with a strong underlying demand support.
That’s the bitcoin story in recent weeks, as it the cryptocurrency held firm around $70,000 even as the Iran war rages, oil prices surge, and Fed rate-cut bets evaporate. This kind of defiance screams bullishness.
But hang on, some key indicators are still heading the wrong way, throwing a wrench into that bullish interpretation.
The first indicator is the Coinbase Premium, which measures the price difference between bitcoin on Coinbase, a Nasdaq-listed Exchange, and on the offshore giant Binance. Typically, a strong positive premium means U.S. institutional investors are bidding more aggressively than their global counterparts. A strong Coinbase premium has regularly featured during bull runs, including bitcoin’s first run to $100,000 in late 2024.
But right now, the Coinbase Premium is at its most negative in over a month, according to data source Coinglass. In other words, BTC trades at a discount on Coinbase, indicating a relatively softer demand from U.S. investors. The discount reappeared on March 19 and has been growing since.
Another key indicator – bitcoin ETF inflows, also a proxy for institutional demand – has been underwhelming lately.
The 11 U.S.-listed spot bitcoin ETFs saw $1.53 billion in net inflows this month, ending a three-month streak of outflows, per SoSoValue. But nearly $1.3 billion arrived in the first half, with the pace slowing considerably to just $195 million since. Analysts have repeatedly stressed that consistent, strong inflows are crucial for Bitcoin prices to gain bullish momentum.
Vikram Subburaj, CEO of India-based Giottus Exchange, put it best: “The signal here is that institutional demand has not disappeared. However, it is selective and less linear than in the strongest accumulation phases.”
As of writing, bitcoin changed hands at around $70,000, according to CoinDesk data.
Bitcoin financial services firm Swan Bitcoin has filed an ex parte application in moves to subpoena Cantor Fitzgerald and its former CEO, Howard Lutnick, seeking discovery tied to a failed mining venture involving former employees.
Swan sued several ex-staff in September 2024, alleging that they stole confidential documents, resigned, and then founded “counterfeit competitor” firm Proton Management days later while convincing Tether, one of Swan’s funding partners at the time, to cut ties with Swan and work with them instead. The ex-staff allegedly referred to this as the “rain and hellfire” plan.
Swan’s application for a subpoena, filed in the Southern District of New York on Monday, targets Cantor Fitzgerald and Lutnick because Swan believes they are in possession of key documents relevant to Swan’s failed mining venture with Tether, 2040 Energy, in addition to the coordinated employee exodus and alleged data exfiltration.
The subpoena application against Lutnick, who now serves as US secretary of commerce, comes as Democratic senators like Elizabeth Warren continue to press him over potential conflicts of interest tied to Tether.
Cantor Fitzgerald is Tether’s investment banker and has advised the stablecoin issuer with its push into the Bitcoin mining industry, Swan noted in the filing.
Due to this link, Swan alleged that Cantor Fitzgerald likely knew about the undervalued sale of Swan’s crypto mining assets to a Tether subsidiary.
Swan alleges that Cantor ghosted them after a meeting
Swan said its CEO, Cory Klippsten, met with Lutnick in June 2024, before the alleged events took place, as Swan was considering an initial public offering and Cantor Fitzgerald was interested in being Swan’s lead investment banker.
During those discussions, Swan said it shared a “highly confidential and proprietary slide deck” with Cantor Fitzgerald and showed them its mining facilities.
“After the mass resignations and asset diversion, Cantor broke off contact with Swan without explanation,” Klippsten said on X.
Cointelegraph reached out to Cantor Fitzgerald for comment but didn’t receive an immediate response.
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Swan alleges that the rain and hellfire plan was orchestrated by Michael Holmes, Swan’s former business development head, and Raphael Zagury, Swan’s former chief investment officer, who was appointed as Proton’s CEO.
The case Swan brought against Proton Management is ongoing.
The defendants previously denied Swan’s claims, arguing that 2040 Energy wasn’t theirs because it was fully funded by Tether.
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