BTC is down ~28% this month; Glassnode’s sub‑1 realized P/L ratio signals 5–6 more months of downside pressure.

Bitcoin has approached previous highs following a sharp decline in February, though blockchain analytics firm Glassnode has indicated further downward pressure may persist for several months, according to the company’s recent analysis.

Glassnode reported that Bitcoin’s realized profit/loss ratio, measured as a 90-day moving average, has fallen below 1. The firm stated this metric suggests the decline could continue for an additional five to six months.

In a post on social media platform X, Glassnode cited historical data showing that drops in the Realized Profit/Loss Ratio below 1 have preceded decline periods lasting at least six months. The firm noted that a return above 1 generally indicates a decrease in selling pressure.

The analytics company referenced the 2022 and 2018 bear markets as comparative examples. During the 2022 bear market, Bitcoin declined 25% in value six months after its profit/loss ratio fell below 1, according to Glassnode. Under similar conditions in 2018, Bitcoin experienced a drop exceeding 50% over five months.

Glassnode stated that if historical patterns repeat, the cryptocurrency’s price could continue its downward trend for five months or longer.

The Realized Profit/Loss Ratio measures the ratio of profits to losses realized on the Bitcoin network, providing insight into market sentiment and selling pressure among holders.

BTC is down ~50% from ATH, with 74% LTH profit shrinking as supply in loss hits 50% amid multi‑month selling.

Bitcoin long-term holders currently hold an average profit of approximately 74%, though that margin continues to decline as the cryptocurrency’s price moves closer to their cost basis, according to CryptoQuant analyst Darkfost.

The analyst noted that historical bear market cycles have been characterized by prices breaking below the long-term holder cost basis, triggering capitulation phases marked by realized losses of around 20%. Long-term holders are defined as investors known to be less sensitive to short-term price fluctuations, Darkfost stated.

Market recovery and bull phase entry have historically occurred only after such capitulation events, according to the analysis.

Glassnode reported that the 90-day moving average of the Realized Profit/Loss Ratio has fallen below 1, confirming a transition into an excess loss-realization regime. The blockchain analytics firm stated that these bearish conditions have historically persisted for at least six months before liquidity returns to markets.

Analyst James Check reported that Bitcoin has recorded nearly five consecutive red monthly candles following the largest volatility spike of the current cycle. Check observed that one-week realized volatility spiked above 150%, a level typically associated with capitulation events, and that weekly RSI has reached one of the most oversold readings in Bitcoin’s history. A significant amount of Bitcoin has migrated to new holders in a high price range this year, according to Check’s analysis.

Bitcoin supply in loss reached 10 million coins, the fourth-highest reading on record, analyst James Van Straten reported. Van Straten noted that circulating supply will reach 20 million Bitcoin next week, with 50% held at a loss. Historical patterns suggest such capital destruction levels are sufficient for a bear market bottom, according to Van Straten.

Bitcoin experienced a minor price rebound during early Asian trading hours, though bearish sentiment remains dominant in the market. The price movement formed another lower high while a key support level continues to hold, according to technical analysis.

Crypto bank Anchorage Digital said it now holds Strategy’s perpetual preferred security STRC on its balance sheet, adding an institutional backer to Michael Saylor’s Bitcoin treasury company at a time when Wall Street traders are increasingly betting against it.

In a Wednesday post on X, Anchorage co-founder and CEO Nathan McCauley said the purchase shows alignment between two companies built around Bitcoin (BTC) infrastructure and corporate treasury adoption. “Conviction compounds. Institutions don’t just talk about Bitcoin, they structure around it,” McCauley wrote.

“When the company that operationalizes Bitcoin infrastructure puts capital alongside the company that operationalized the Bitcoin treasury strategy…that’s a signal,” he added. Anchorage did not reveal the size or timing of the position.

According to Strategy’s website, STRC is a Nasdaq-listed perpetual preferred security marketed as a short-duration, high-yield instrument. The shares pay an 11.25% annual dividend distributed monthly in cash. Capital raised through the instrument has historically financed the firm’s continued Bitcoin accumulation.

Related: Michael Saylor says quantum threat to Bitcoin is more than 10 years away

Strategy becomes Wall Street’s most-shorted stock

Anchorage’s purchase comes as Strategy has climbed to the top of Goldman Sachs’ list of most-shorted large-cap US equities by short interest as a percentage of market capitalization. A year ago, it did not rank among the top 50. The company began rising on the list in late 2025 as its share price weakened even before Bitcoin peaked in October.

Short selling involves borrowing shares and selling them with the expectation of repurchasing later at a lower price. Losses can grow if the stock rises.

Strategy functions as a leveraged public-equity proxy for Bitcoin. It issues securities and deploys the proceeds into BTC. Gains can amplify during rallies, while downturns magnify pressure on the share price.

The company currently holds 717,722 Bitcoin worth about $46.68 billion at current market prices. On Monday, it announced another purchase, acquiring 592 BTC for $39.8 million. The coins were acquired at an average cost of roughly $76,020, leaving the company sitting on an estimated $7 billion unrealized loss with Bitcoin trading near $66,000.

Related: Michael Saylor hints at Strategy’s 100th Bitcoin buy

Strategy plans debt-to-equity shift

Last week, Strategy founder Michael Saylor said the company intends to convert roughly $6 billion in convertible bond debt into equity, replacing repayment obligations with newly issued shares. The change would lower leverage on the balance sheet by turning bondholders into shareholders, though it could dilute existing investors.