Well-timed trades ahead of U.S. President Donald Trump’s major policy surprises during his second term have potentially led to millions of dollars in profits for unknown traders, leading some legal experts to say they should be investigated to protect fair markets and ascertain whether information is leaking. A Reuters review of trading ahead of major Trump administration decisions on tariffs, Venezuela and Iran that led to significant market moves showed at least four instances where the legal experts said it appeared investors knew what would happen shortly before it did. The trades occurred on different types of markets and assets – options, commodities futures and predictions.

Given their timing and size, the trades warrant scrutiny to ascertain if they were based on inside government information, said the experts, who include a former enforcement director for the Commodity Futures Trading Commission and three academics who have studied insider trading.

“It looks deeply suspicious,” said Andrew Verstein, an expert in insider ‌trading at UCLA School of Law, ⁠adding that while ⁠the examples are limited in number, they show patterns you “would expect to see if there were informed trading by government officials and their friends.”

Aitan Goelman, a former CFTC enforcement director and former federal prosecutor, said such trading would normally draw scrutiny, although he added that insider trading law for commodities markets is complex ​and still relatively uncharted.

The exchanges, CFTC and DOJ would typically find such trades “anomalous and interesting,” Goelman said.

White House spokesman Kush Desai said government ethics guidelines bar federal employees from profiting off nonpublic information. “Any implication that Administration officials are engaged in such activity without evidence is baseless and irresponsible,” he said in an emailed statement.
A CFTC spokesperson said the agency was in constant communication with exchanges “over trades that raise red flags” and that it conducts its own surveillance but did not say whether it had opened an investigation into the wagers. The Securities and Exchange Commission declined to comment, while the Justice Department did not respond to a request for comment. To be sure, some traders may have gotten very lucky or spotted signs of impending action the rest of the market missed, especially with Wall Street firms increasingly leaning on ex-military and national security advisers. Some trades may have been hedges for exposures taking the other ⁠side of the ‌bet, which is common in macro-driven commodities portfolios.ENFORCEMENT RECORD IS PATCHY

Trading with material and nonpublic information is typically considered illegal if the person has a duty not to, such as through an employment or ​confidentiality requirement. But the enforcement record is ​patchy across different assets and exchange venues.

While insider trading has been banned for over a decade in commodities and derivatives markets, for example, there is little precedent for bringing such cases ⁠in those markets, according to legal experts. Oversight of prediction markets, where some of the bets were made, is in flux. Top SEC officials have said they intend to focus on more bread-and-butter fraud in securities markets, such as insider trading, yet many lawyers, investors and other observers say regulators have taken a softer enforcement stance during Trump’s second administration.

Steve Sosnick, chief strategist at Interactive Brokers, said the trades in question involved a patchwork of regulators like the SEC and CFTC and prediction markets, where the legal basis is murky. “If this was a single actor or a set of cooperating actors, it would require a high level of coordination between a diverse and dedicated group of regulators to get to the root of the issue,” Sosnick said. “We have seen no evidence that this is occurring.” Sosnick added that the recent resignation of the SEC’s enforcement chief amid reports of frustrations made it “hard to imagine this becoming a high priority among regulators.”

WELL-TIMED TRADES The Reuters review found four prominent instances where trades stood out for their timeliness. In April 2025, options traders made millions in late-breaking bets in the minutes before Trump announced a pause on his blanket “Liberation Day” tariffs, sparking a 9.5% jump in the S&P 500. In January, an unknown Polymarket punter took in more than $400,000 after betting on the ouster of Venezuelan ‌President Nicolas Maduro that month. The anonymous account was created the previous month, and placed more than $30,000 in bets that would pay off if the U.S. invaded Venezuela by January 31. Bets placed on prediction markets like Polymarket and Kalshi ahead of the February 28 killing of Iranian Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei sparked fresh insider trading and ethics concerns. Analytics firm Bubblemaps identified six accounts that made a combined $1.2 million profit from Polymarket bets that were funded in the hours immediately before the U.S.-Israeli attacks that killed ⁠Khamenei. This week, unidentified traders made a $500 million oil bet minutes before Trump sent crude plunging by announcing he was delaying an assault on Iranian energy assets. The bets were placed on the New York Mercantile Exchange, which is owned by CME Group.

A CME spokesperson declined to comment on the oil futures trades or whether the exchange operator was reviewing the trades.

Earlier in March, both Kalshi and Polymarket introduced new rules to crack down on potential insider trading on their prediction market ​platforms. A Kalshi spokeswoman said it will continue to “enforce as necessary and iterate on our existing technologies and partnerships,” adding that bets of the magnitude of the oil futures transactions on March 23 would have been flagged if they had been placed on Kalshi’s platform.

In an interview, Polymarket’s chief legal officer, Neal Kumar, said Polymarket monitors and tracks all transactions that go through its U.S. platform in real time, and that the company has a set of controls that can quickly crack down on suspicious trading activity.

Some of the experts said the sheer size and binary nature of some of the bets raised the possibility that people may have had advance knowledge. Monday’s $500 million oil market trade, for example, indicates extreme conviction as well as deep pockets, some of the experts said.

“When you’re dealing with bets on unique events and things like that, those do raise a lot more suspicion that somebody has some specific inside information,” said David Rosenfeld, former co-head of enforcement at the SEC’s New York office.

Lionel Messi leads Cristiano Ronaldo 13-8 in career World Cup goals as the two all-time greats prepare for what could be their final appearances on football’s biggest stage at the 2026 FIFA World Cup in North America.

The eternal rivals have defined an era of the sport, with Messi’s 2022 triumph in Qatar giving him the one major international honor that long eluded him, while Ronaldo continues chasing history as Portugal’s record scorer. As of late March 2026, neither has added to their World Cup tallies since 2022, leaving Messi with a clear edge in the prestigious metric.

Messi has scored 13 goals across 26 World Cup appearances, boasting an impressive 8 assists as well. Ronaldo has netted 8 goals in 22 appearances with just 2 assists. The Argentine’s superior output includes key strikes that propelled Argentina to the 2022 title, while Ronaldo’s goals have come in more fragmented campaigns for Portugal.

Messi’s World Cup Journey

Messi made his World Cup debut in 2006 as a teenager and has featured in five tournaments. His breakthrough came in 2014 when he led Argentina to the final, though they fell short against Germany. In 2022, at age 35, he delivered a masterclass with 7 goals and 3 assists, captaining Argentina to glory and finally lifting the trophy that completed his collection.

His World Cup goals showcase versatility — penalties, long-range strikes, clinical finishes and moments of genius. Messi holds the record for most goal contributions in World Cup history and has scored in every tournament he has played. At 38, questions remain about his physical condition for 2026, but his enduring quality with Inter Miami and Argentina keeps him as a central figure.

Ronaldo’s World Cup Record

Ronaldo debuted in 2006 and has appeared in five World Cups. He scored his first World Cup goal in 2006 and has consistently contributed, though Portugal has never reached the final during his era. His best result came with a semi-final appearance in 2006.

The Portuguese star’s 8 goals reflect consistency rather than a single dominant tournament. Known for his athleticism, aerial ability and penalty prowess, Ronaldo remains Portugal’s talisman at 41. His club form with Al Nassr in 2026 shows he is still scoring regularly, fueling hopes he can add to his tally in North America.

Head-to-Head Context

While Messi leads in World Cup goals, Ronaldo holds the edge in overall international goals with 143 compared to Messi’s 115. Their club careers also tell a story of Ronaldo’s higher total volume, though Messi often earns praise for efficiency and playmaking.

The rivalry transcends numbers. Messi’s 2022 World Cup victory gave him a narrative advantage, but Ronaldo’s longevity and pursuit of records keep the debate alive. Fans continue to passionately argue over who is the greatest, with World Cup performances frequently cited as a key differentiator.

Outlook for 2026 World Cup

The 2026 tournament, co-hosted by the United States, Canada and Mexico, offers both stars a potential swan song. Messi would turn 39 during the event, while Ronaldo would be 41. Both nations are strong contenders, raising the possibility of dramatic moments or even a hypothetical clash.

Analysts note that modern World Cup formats with expanded groups could provide more opportunities for goals. However, age and fitness will be decisive factors. Messi has spoken of selective participation, while Ronaldo remains characteristically ambitious about adding to his legacy.

Broader Legacy and Impact

Beyond statistics, Messi and Ronaldo have elevated football’s global profile. Their World Cup contributions have inspired generations and driven commercial interest in the sport. Messi’s creative genius and Ronaldo’s athletic supremacy represent contrasting styles that have enriched the game.

As 2026 approaches, the football world watches closely. Whether either can add significantly to their tallies remains uncertain, but their presence alone guarantees attention. The rivalry that has defined two decades of football may reach its final chapter on the grandest stage.

For now, Messi holds the World Cup goal-scoring edge, but Ronaldo’s competitive fire suggests the conversation is far from over. Fans can expect more memorable moments as both legends chase history one last time.

MELBOURNE, Australia — Harlan Goode, the 18-year-old powerhouse vocalist from Queensland, has rapidly emerged as one of the standout contestants on Australian Idol 2026, captivating judges and viewers with his commanding stage presence and emotional ballad deliveries.

Hailing from Cleveland in the Redlands region south of Brisbane, Goode is a recent Sheldon College graduate who auditioned while finishing his Year 12 exams. His journey from local talent shows to national television has made him a fan favourite, with supporters rallying behind him through voting campaigns and social media.

Here are five fun facts about Harlan Goode that highlight why this young singer is turning heads in 2026:

1. He Impressed Judges from His Very First Audition During his televised audition, Harlan delivered a performance that left the Australian Idol judges speechless. His rendition of a Bon Jovi classic showcased his wide vocal range and emotional depth, earning him a golden ticket and early praise as a “big ballad singer” with star potential.
2. He Balances School and Stardom Harlan auditioned for the show while completing his final year of high school at Sheldon College. He has spoken about the challenge of juggling intense filming schedules with external exams, describing it as “very tough” but ultimately rewarding. His success has become a point of pride for his school and local community.
3. His Vocal Inspirations Include Ariana Grande and Adam Lambert Goode draws vocal influence from artists like Ariana Grande and Adam Lambert, while his songwriting draws from more introspective acts such as Lizzy McAlpine and Adele. This blend gives his performances a mix of technical brilliance and raw emotional honesty that resonates strongly with audiences.
4. He’s a Proud Redlands Representative Born and raised in the Redlands area of Queensland, Harlan frequently credits his local community, family and teachers for shaping his artistry. His progress on Australian Idol has sparked significant local support, with residents and fellow alumni celebrating him as a shining example of regional talent on the national stage.
5. He’s Already Building a Music Career Outside the Show Before and during Australian Idol, Harlan has been developing original material with an acoustic, indie-pop style. He maintains an active presence on Instagram (@harlan.goode) and Spotify, where fans can find his early releases. His participation in the competition has boosted his visibility and opened doors for future professional opportunities.

From Local Stages to National Spotlight

Harlan Goode’s rise reflects the classic Australian Idol narrative: raw talent discovered through open auditions and nurtured on live television. His performances often feature soaring vocals on covers ranging from ABBA and John Farnham to modern pop and rock anthems. Viewers and judges alike have noted his ability to command the stage despite his young age, with many comparing his style and presence to Adam Lambert.

The Redlands community has embraced him enthusiastically. Local media and social groups have shared stories of his journey, highlighting how his success inspires other young performers in the region. Harlan has expressed gratitude for the support, noting that representing his hometown on a national platform carries special meaning.

What’s Next for Harlan Goode

As Australian Idol 2026 progresses, Harlan remains a strong contender for the Top 8 and beyond. Voting campaigns encourage fans to text support, reflecting the interactive nature of the show. Whether or not he claims the title, his exposure on the program has already elevated his profile and positioned him for a potential recording career.

Industry observers see significant potential in Goode’s combination of vocal power, stage charisma and relatability. At just 18, he possesses the work ethic and adaptability needed to thrive in the competitive music industry. His blend of contemporary influences with classic ballad delivery gives him broad appeal across age groups.

Broader Impact on Australian Music

Harlan Goode’s story adds to the rich legacy of Australian Idol, which has launched careers for artists like Guy Sebastian, Jessica Mauboy and others. The show continues to serve as a vital platform for discovering and nurturing homegrown talent, particularly from regional areas.

For young aspiring musicians, Harlan represents proof that dedication and natural ability can open doors. His journey from finishing high school exams to performing live on national television inspires many to pursue their creative passions despite challenges.

As the competition heats up in 2026, all eyes remain on Harlan Goode. Supporters continue to rally behind the young Queenslander, hoping his powerful voice carries him deep into the later stages of Australian Idol. Win or lose, his participation has already marked the beginning of what many predict will be a promising career in Australian entertainment.

Fans can follow Harlan’s progress through official Australian Idol channels, his Instagram account and local media updates from the Redlands. With his talent, humility and strong community backing, Harlan Goode is a name likely to be heard much more in the coming years.

This article was written by

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Seeking Alpha’s Disclosure: Past performance is no guarantee of future results. No recommendation or advice is being given as to whether any investment is suitable for a particular investor. Any views or opinions expressed above may not reflect those of Seeking Alpha as a whole. Seeking Alpha is not a licensed securities dealer, broker or US investment adviser or investment bank. Our analysts are third party authors that include both professional investors and individual investors who may not be licensed or certified by any institute or regulatory body.

This article was written by

Analyst’s Disclosure: I/we have no stock, option or similar derivative position in any of the companies mentioned, and no plans to initiate any such positions within the next 72 hours. I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I am not receiving compensation for it (other than from Seeking Alpha). I have no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article.

Seeking Alpha’s Disclosure: Past performance is no guarantee of future results. No recommendation or advice is being given as to whether any investment is suitable for a particular investor. Any views or opinions expressed above may not reflect those of Seeking Alpha as a whole. Seeking Alpha is not a licensed securities dealer, broker or US investment adviser or investment bank. Our analysts are third party authors that include both professional investors and individual investors who may not be licensed or certified by any institute or regulatory body.

This article was written by

Analyst’s Disclosure: I/we have no stock, option or similar derivative position in any of the companies mentioned, and no plans to initiate any such positions within the next 72 hours. I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I am not receiving compensation for it (other than from Seeking Alpha). I have no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article.

Seeking Alpha’s Disclosure: Past performance is no guarantee of future results. No recommendation or advice is being given as to whether any investment is suitable for a particular investor. Any views or opinions expressed above may not reflect those of Seeking Alpha as a whole. Seeking Alpha is not a licensed securities dealer, broker or US investment adviser or investment bank. Our analysts are third party authors that include both professional investors and individual investors who may not be licensed or certified by any institute or regulatory body.