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Kalshi hires ex-Democratic strategist amid legal troubles

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Kalshi, the prediction market platform, announced that Stephanie Cutter—former Obama administration staffer and co-founder of Precision Strategies—will join the company as a policy adviser. The appointment, disclosed in a Thursday notice, comes as Kalshi seeks to deepen its political and regulatory engagement in Washington, D.C., and across the country. Cutter’s arrival adds a veteran of Democratic campaigns to Kalshi’s policy team at a moment when the industry faces intensifying regulatory scrutiny and evolving questions about the role of politics in prediction markets.

Kalshi said Cutter’s move would help the firm “deepen its relationships in DC and across the country.” CEO and co-founder Tarek Mansour highlighted Cutter’s governmental and political experience as a bridge to policymakers and other stakeholders. Cutter’s hiring follows Kalshi’s strategy of embedding itself more firmly in political circles as it navigates a regulatory landscape that has grown more complex over the past year.

Kalshi’s roster already includes staff with government ties, including the appointment of Donald Trump Jr. as a strategic adviser in January 2025, a development noted in the market’s broader push to align with political figures ahead of a changing regulatory climate. The recruitment of Cutter signals Kalshi’s intent to bring experienced policy voices directly into its decision-making as it seeks to balance growth with compliance in a jurisdiction that has seen ongoing legal and legislative debate surrounding event-based markets.

At the same time, the legal and regulatory environment for prediction markets remains unsettled. State-level authorities have pursued lawsuits against Kalshi and other platforms offering event contracts, arguing that such markets amount to illegal gambling or betting. In Washington, the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), led by Michael Selig, has asserted that it holds exclusive jurisdiction over these markets and has pursued cases against state gaming regulators over the matter. The tension underscores a broader push by lawmakers to scrutinize, and potentially constrain, prediction markets—especially those tied to political events.

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Key takeaways

  • Kalshi hires Stephanie Cutter as policy adviser to strengthen policy outreach amid ongoing regulatory scrutiny of prediction markets.
  • Cutter’s background in government and political campaigns is intended to help Kalshi communicate its position to policymakers and the public, per the company.
  • The platform already counts high-profile political advisers, including Donald Trump Jr., illustrating Kalshi’s bid to embed in political circles during a sensitive regulatory era.
  • Regulatory friction persists: the CFTC claims exclusive oversight of prediction markets, while state regulators challenge or enforce their own regimes, prompting lawsuits and legislative proposals.

Policy push in a contested space

The timing of Cutter’s arrival underscores Kalshi’s ambition to leverage policy expertise as a differentiator in a market where regulatory clarity remains elusive. Kalshi’s notice frames the hire as part of a broader effort to cultivate relationships with lawmakers, regulators, and stakeholders who will shape the framework governing event-based contracts. Mansour’s remark—emphasizing Cutter’s ability to “get the message to the right people”—illustrates how Kalshi views policy engagement as central to its long-term viability and competitive positioning.

The broader governance context is clear: while Kalshi positions itself as a legitimate financial technology, it operates in a space where opinions diverge on whether prediction markets should be permitted to operate with fewer restrictions, and if so, what guardrails are necessary to prevent manipulation or insider trading. The presence of political advisers on Kalshi’s payroll reflects a strategic bet that shaping policy conversations could yield a more favorable operating environment, or at least greater predictability for a product that depends on real-world events occurring as forecasted.

Regulatory battleground: courts, commissions, and state actions

Industry observers note that the past year has seen a wave of legal activity at the state level, where regulators have challenged or restricted prediction-market-like offerings. Proponents argue such markets can improve price discovery and information flows, while opponents point to concerns about gambling law, consumer protection, and the potential for insider information to drive bets. Kalshi and peers such as Polymarket have publicly discussed implementing guardrails intended to curb use by insiders, but legislative progress remains uneven.

On the federal side, the CFTC has framed the issue within the agency’s core remit: it asserts exclusive jurisdiction over derivative-like markets tied to events and has taken action against state authorities in other contexts to defend that stance. This legal backdrop matters for Kalshi’s strategy, because a clearer federal framework could reduce intergovernmental friction and open the door for broader user participation under explicit guidelines. For investors and users, the outcome of ongoing court fights and potential federal legislation will influence the platform’s risk profile and the types of markets Kalshi can legally offer in the coming years.

Meanwhile, congressional dynamics add another layer of potential change. Several bills have floated the idea of preventing politicians from participating in predictive markets and of imposing stricter disclosures around the use of such platforms. As of the latest developments, none of these proposals had been enacted into law, leaving a period of watchful waiting for operators, users, and policymakers alike. In this context, Kalshi’s move to strengthen its policy team can be viewed as a proactive approach to navigating a period of regulatory ambiguity, rather than a reaction to a discrete, imminent rule change.

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Implications for users, builders, and investors

For users and market participants, the regulatory landscape remains the most consequential variable. A more defined federal framework could reduce the risk of sudden platform shutdowns or wholesale policy reversals, while also imposing stricter compliance requirements. For builders and operators in the prediction-market space, Cutter’s appointment highlights the increasing professionalization of policy oversight and the growing importance of credible governmental liaison functions in a sector where public perception and political legitimacy matter as much as product design.

Investors and observers should weigh the potential upside of regulatory clarity against the risk that stricter rules could curb certain market types or restrict access to insider-sensitive information. The presence of political advisers on Kalshi’s team signals a belief that, even in a patchwork regulatory regime, a well-connected operator can navigate policy changes more smoothly and carve out a defensible niche with robust governance standards. As the debate over prediction markets continues, the key questions will be whether Congress and state authorities converge on guardrails that protect users without stifling innovation, and whether Kalshi’s ecosystem can demonstrate resilience through regulatory transitions.

What to watch next: the trajectory of state and federal actions on prediction markets, any new guardrails or prohibitions affecting political participation, and how Kalshi’s newly expanded policy function translates into concrete policy wins or clearer operational guidelines. The coming months will reveal whether this hiring signals a durable edge in policy access, or if the market must weather a more uncertain regulatory horizon before broader adoption can occur.

Risk & affiliate notice: Crypto assets are volatile and capital is at risk. This article may contain affiliate links. Read full disclosure

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Bitcoin ETFs to surpass gold ETFs in size

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Bitcoin spot ETFs may soon surpass gold ETFs in assets under management, fracturing the long-standing narrative that “digital gold” is a perfect stand-in for investors seeking a safe haven. Bloomberg ETF analyst James Seyffart shared the view in an interview linked to the Coin Stories podcast, arguing that Bitcoin’s multiple use cases — from store of value to growth asset and liquidity driver — create a broader appeal than gold, which the market typically frames in a single light.

“There are just more use cases of why somebody would put a Bitcoin ETF in a portfolio,” Seyffart said on the podcast. He emphasized Bitcoin’s roles as a store of value, a portfolio diversifier, a form of digital capital, and even a growth-risk asset, suggesting that the crypto may attract a wider spectrum of investors than gold over time. While gold has historically served as a hedge against monetary debasement, Bitcoin’s evolving narrative as both a digital asset and a potential macro hedge underpins the case for larger ETF demand in the years ahead.

Key takeaways

  • Bitcoin ETFs could grow to exceed gold ETFs in total assets under management as demand broadens beyond the traditional “digital gold” story, according to James Seyffart, a Bloomberg ETF analyst.
  • March ETF flows show divergent momentum: U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs attracted about $1.32 billion in net inflows, while U.S. gold ETFs recorded net outflows of roughly $2.92 billion.
  • A single-day move underscored fragility in precious metals: GLD, the flagship gold ETF, posted a $3 billion withdrawal on March 4, the largest daily outflow in more than two years.
  • Longer-run macro signals remain mixed, with data suggesting a rotation dynamic between gold and Bitcoin rather than a single clear trend; Fidelity highlighted a historical pattern of leadership rotating between the two assets.

Flow dynamics in March: what they reveal about narrative shifts

The contrast in March ETF flows underscores shifting investor appetites for duration, liquidity, and narrative potential. Gold ETFs in the United States posted net outflows totaling about $2.92 billion in March, signaling renewed challenges for the traditional safe-haven metal in a period of evolving macro cues. In the same month, US spot Bitcoin ETFs drew approximately $1.32 billion in net inflows, illustrating a growing appetite for crypto exposure in diversified portfolios.

The divergence sits against a broader context in which Bitcoin and gold have moved more cohesively in recent weeks despite the divergent flows. The data points to a market that is re-evaluating the roles of these two hedges and growth assets in a landscape of persistent inflation concerns, evolving monetary policy expectations, and expanding acceptance of crypto-based investment products.

Gold’s pullback and retail versus institutional dynamics

Several pressures shaped gold’s March performance. The largest daily outflow in over two years hit GLD on March 4, reflecting sell-side and perhaps macro rotation pressures that have periodically punctured the gold regime. Meanwhile, more broad-based BIS data — cited by Cointelegraph — show retail gold purchases tripling over the past six months, while Wall Street selling has accelerated over the last four months. The juxtaposition implies a nuanced narrative: retail demand remains resilient even as institutional appetite shifts toward crypto exposure and related investment vehicles.

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These dynamics sit alongside anecdotal expectations that a growing cadre of investors view Bitcoin as a “growth risk asset,” complementary to its role as a hedge-friendly reserve. The evolving taxonomy — Bitcoin as a stores of value, digital currency with intrinsic scarcity, and liquidity-rich growth asset — contributes to a broader array of reasons to own a Bitcoin ETF beyond simply “digital gold.”

Price action and broader market context

As of publication, Bitcoin traded around $66,918, down about 8% over the prior 30 days, according to CoinMarketCap data. Gold hovered near $4,676 per ounce, down about 8.25% over the same period, per GoldPrice metrics. The near-term move preserves the sense that both assets have faced headwinds in a mixed macro backdrop, yet the flow data suggests that investor interest in Bitcoin ETFs remains persistent and possibly expanding even as gold faces episodic outflows.

The longer-term rotation story received some color from Fidelity Digital Assets analyst Chris Kuiper. In December 2025, Kuiper noted that historically gold and Bitcoin have rotated leadership, with gold performing strongly at times and Bitcoin catching up in others. That framework remains relevant as market participants weigh regulatory clarity, ETF availability, and the evolving ecosystem around Bitcoin-based investment products.

Implications for investors and markets

The potential overtaking of gold ETFs by Bitcoin ETFs in AUM would mark a notable shift in how investors allocate capital in search of diversification, liquidity, and growth exposure. If Bitcoin ETFs continue to capture inflows beyond the “digital gold” narrative, the market could see a broader base of participants embracing crypto exposure through regulated vehicles. This would not only change the composition of ETF portfolios but could also influence liquidity, product development, and the pace at which financial institutions bring more crypto-enabled offerings to retail and high-net-worth investors alike.

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From a portfolio-management perspective, the idea of Bitcoin acting as hot sauce in a diversified mix is persuasive for those seeking a growth-oriented, liquidity-rich sleeve within a broader asset allocation. Yet the data also underscores the need for caution and continued monitoring of regulatory developments, product approvals, and market structure changes that shape the appeal and risk profile of spot BTC ETFs.

In practical terms, readers should watch ETF inflow trends in the coming quarters, the rate of new product approvals, and the evolving evidence on how Bitcoin-based funds perform relative to gold during different macro regimes. The March data points demonstrate that the narrative around Bitcoin ETFs is gaining traction in investor discourse, even as gold maintains its own complex set of drivers and vulnerabilities.

Beyond price moves, the debate now centers on whether Bitcoin ETFs can sustain and broaden their appeal to a broader investor universe — from traditional equity and bond strategists to macro hedge funds and retail savers seeking diversified exposure. If inflows continue and more products arrive, the BTC ETF story may transition from a niche crypto offering to a core component of diversified portfolios.

What matters next is the trajectory of ETF approvals and listings, clear and consistent data on inflows across different regimes, and how macro factors like inflation momentum and monetary policy directions shape the risk-reward calculus for these funds. Investors should stay attentive to monthly flow prints, regulatory signals, and the evolving narrative around Bitcoin’s role in modern asset allocation.

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As the market awaits further clarity, the ongoing dialogue around Bitcoin’s ETF potential points to a future where crypto exposure becomes an increasingly standard instrument within traditional investment frameworks. The next few quarters will be telling, as inflows, product breadth, and price action converge to reveal whether Bitcoin ETFs can definitively eclipse gold ETFs in practical assets under management.

Risk & affiliate notice: Crypto assets are volatile and capital is at risk. This article may contain affiliate links. Read full disclosure

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Bitcoin ETFs Will Be Bigger Than Gold ETFs, Says ETF Analyst

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Bitcoin ETFs Will Be Bigger Than Gold ETFs, Says ETF Analyst

Spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) could surpass gold ETFs in total assets under management (AUM) as investor demand expands beyond the traditional “digital gold” narrative, according to ETF analyst James Seyffart.

“There are just more use cases of why somebody would put a Bitcoin ETF in a portfolio,” Seyffart said on the Coin Stories podcast published to YouTube on Friday. He pointed to Bitcoin’s (BTC) role as digital gold, a store of value, a portfolio diversifier, and a form of digital capital and property, adding that the market also views Bitcoin as a “growth risk asset.”

Seyffart explained that Bitcoin has “all these different ways” of being viewed, while gold only has “one of those things.”

“Our view is that Bitcoin ETFs will be larger than gold ETFs,” he added.

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Bitcoin ETFs are a “hot sauce” in the portfolio

“There are so many people that could use it. They could be viewing it to put in their portfolio because they want to bet on like a growth and liquidity trade,” he said. “It can be hot sauce in a portfolio in that way,” he added.

Bloomberg ETF analyst James Seyffart spoke to Natalie Brunell on the Coin Stories podcast. Source: Coin Stories

Bitcoin is often compared to gold due to its limited supply and perceived role as a hedge against monetary debasement. 

US-based gold ETFs recorded net outflows of $2.92 billion in March, while US spot Bitcoin ETFs attracted $1.32 billion in net inflows over the same period.

Gold and BTC have declined over the past 30 days

The largest US gold-backed ETF, GLD, recorded a $3 billion outflow on Mar. 4, the largest daily withdrawal in more than two years.

On Mar. 19, Cointelegraph cited data from the Bank for International Settlements (BIS) showing retail gold purchases have tripled over the last six months, while Wall Street selling has accelerated over the past four months.

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Related: Bitcoin ‘done’ with 85% crashes, says Cathie Wood amid new $34K target

Despite the divergence in ETF flows, both assets have moved broadly in tandem in recent weeks.

Bitcoin is trading at $66,918 at the time of publication, down 8.07% over the past 30 days, according to CoinMarketCap. Meanwhile, gold is trading at $4,676, down 8.25% over the past 30 days, according to GoldPrice data.

In December 2025, Fidelity Digital Assets analyst Chris Kuiper said that, “historically, gold and Bitcoin have taken turns outperforming. With gold shining in 2025, it would not be surprising if Bitcoin takes the lead next.”

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