Prediction markets rapidly repriced the odds of a U.S. escalation in the Iran crisis, offering a real-time read on geopolitical risk for traders. Platforms such as Polymarket and Kalshi adjusted odds in tandem with shifting signals from Washington, while Bitcoin moved higher, climbing about 3.5% on the day.

Industry practitioners say these markets are increasingly embedded in professional portfolios. Fabian Dori, chief investment officer at Sygnum Bank, described prediction markets as providing priced outcomes with real capital behind them. “Prediction markets price discrete, named outcomes with real capital behind them. For crypto in particular, where price action is often driven by binary events, regulatory decisions, geopolitical developments and protocol upgrades, that is a categorically different signal,” Dori told Cointelegraph.

Throughout the Iran crisis, odds on de-escalation appeared to shift ahead of broad-media coverage, with a visible correlation to Bitcoin price action, according to Dori.

Key takeaways

• Prediction markets are increasingly used as macro risk monitors on professional desks, not just as niche tools.
• Institutional money is flowing in: March data showed about 191 million prediction-market transactions, up 2,838% year-on-year, with notional volume around $23.9 billion.
• Traditional market infrastructure is embracing prediction markets, highlighted by ICE’s $600 million investment in Polymarket in late March.
• While growing in adoption, the sector faces fairness and integrity questions, including insider-trading concerns and market removals after controversy.
• ARK Invest has integrated Kalshi’s data into its investment process, signaling a move toward mainstream corporate usage of event-based odds data.

Prediction markets migrate into macro playbooks

On increasingly active professional desks, prediction markets are being employed as a real-time event monitor amid fast-moving geopolitical developments. They run alongside traditional risk tools such as funding-rate data, options surfaces and flows to help quantify the probability of outcomes like war, sanctions or ceasefires. In this context, markets that continuously update a capital-weighted probability of major geopolitical events are a natural fit for structured risk assessment.

Kalshi’s data and activity have become part of institutional workflows, with ARK Invest noted for incorporating Kalshi data into its decision-making process. This signals a broader trend: event odds are migrating from niche platforms to mainstream investment processes, shaping how teams frame risk scenarios rather than simply reacting to headlines.

As prediction markets grow, they are increasingly used to form a contextual layer for decision-making. The aim is to anticipate, rather than chase, outcomes before they occur, leveraging markets that reflect evolving probabilities around war, sanctions or engagement dynamics.

Institutional money and growing scrutiny

The scale of activity in prediction markets has begun to move traditional conversations about liquidity and reliability. In March, the number of prediction-market transactions reached about 191 million, up 2,838% year-on-year, with monthly notional volume around $23.9 billion. The flows have drawn attention from mainstream finance operators who see potential value in event-driven risk analytics.

Concretely, Intercontinental Exchange (ICE), the parent company of the New York Stock Exchange, completed a new $600 million investment in Polymarket on March 27, deepening its conviction in the space. This milestone underscores a growing appetite among traditional market participants to engage with prediction markets as part of macro risk assessment and portfolio construction.

Industry practitioners caution that the core question for investors is now about how to incorporate these signals into analysis in a way that adds genuine analytical value rather than introducing noise. “This is no longer a niche product,” Dori said, emphasizing that prediction markets are entering mainstream risk workflows. The challenge remains to balance insight with due diligence, especially as the ecosystem confronts questions about market fairness and integrity.

Not all developments have been positive. Polymarket faced controversy over insider trading when six traders netted around $1 million betting on the timing of U.S. strikes on Iran in late February. The platform also removed a market related to a missing U.S. pilot after backlash, highlighting concerns about the social and political consequences of betting markets tied to real-world events.

Regulatory frames, integrity and what to watch

As prediction markets gain prominence, regulators and market operators are navigating questions around fairness, information asymmetries and the proper boundaries of event-based wagering. The industry has already been exploring its legal limits in different jurisdictions, including strict Asian markets where regulatory testing has taken place. The ongoing dialogue around governance and integrity will shape how widely and deeply these markets are adopted by institutions in the coming months.

What to watch next is how mainstream players integrate these tools without compromising risk discipline. Readers should monitor: whether more asset managers formalize the use of event-odds in risk models, how regulators respond to elevated liquidity and possible manipulation concerns, and whether new interfaces or data feeds emerge to standardize the integration of prediction-market signals into traditional research workflows.

As geopolitics and policy continue to move at machine speed, the market’s appetite for probabilistic signals tied to real outcomes will likely intensify. The coming weeks could reveal how far prediction markets can travel from niche experimentation toward a core element of macro risk assessment.

Onchain perpetual futures trading has cooled for five straight months since peaking in October 2025.

Perp volume on decentralized exchanges (DEXs) fell to $699 billion in March 2026 from October’s $1.36 trillion, according to DefiLlama data.

The decline has been steady across the period, with volumes slipping through November and December before losses extended through the first quarter of 2026. 

Daily activity also shows signs of softening. On April 4, perp DEX volume fell to $8.4 billion, the first time it dropped below $10 billion since Sept. 6, 2025. This also marks the lowest level since July 5, 2025, according to DefiLlama. 

The trend signals a sustained cooldown in onchain perpetual futures trading following the 2025 surge. Perp volumes serve as a proxy for speculative demand and leveraged positioning in crypto markets.

Hyperliquid leads perp DEX volumes over the past 30 days

DefiLlama data shows that trading activity remains concentrated among the top perp DEX platforms. In the past 30 days, Hyperliquid put up about $185.5 billion in reported volume, accounting for roughly 34% of total volume among the top 10 perp DEXs.

This puts the platform significantly ahead of rivals such as edgeX, which reported $73 billion, and Aster, at $68 billion.

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Other platforms recorded notably lower volumes over the same period, including Lighter at about $50 billion and Grvt at nearly $40 billion. Smaller venues like ApeX Protocol, Variational and StandX each recorded between roughly $16 billion and $33 billion in 30-day volume. 

The data shows that a large share of onchain perpetual futures activity is concentrated in the top platforms, as overall volumes have declined from late-2025 highs. 

Perp DEX slowdown follows rapid growth

The slowdown follows a period of rapid growth in onchain derivatives trading. In 2025, perp DEXs nearly tripled cumulative volume to $12.09 trillion, with about $7.9 trillion, about 65%, generated in 2025 alone.

This was largely driven by monthly activity averaging nearly $1 trillion each month in the fourth quarter.

Perpetual futures exchanges are becoming a key battleground across crypto ecosystems. Blockchains have been racing to launch or host perpetual DEXs to capture trading activity, though liquidity has historically tended to consolidate around a small number of dominant platforms.

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