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BTC’s ‘stability’ is a mirage, says Bitfinex

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BTC's 'stability' is a mirage, says Bitfinex

Bitcoin’s muted price action is masking a buildup of downside risk in derivatives markets, where traders are increasingly positioning for a sharper move lower.

According to a recent Bitfinex report, the options market is showing a persistent gap between implied and realized volatility, with implied volatility holding in the 48% to 55% range while actual price swings remain subdued. This divergence suggests traders are paying a premium for protection, even as spot markets appear calm.

The more critical factor sits just below current levels. Analysts point to a “negative gamma environment” under $68,000, where market makers who have sold downside protection may be forced to sell bitcoin as prices fall in order to hedge their exposure.

That dynamic can turn a gradual decline into a sharper move. As prices drop, hedging activity adds further selling pressure, creating what the report describes as a “self-reinforcing feedback loop.”

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The setup leaves bitcoin vulnerable to an accelerated move toward the $60,000 level if support breaks. Even recent liquidations — over $247 million in long positions — may not have been enough to fully reset positioning.

Despite the lack of large price swings, the structure of the market points to low conviction. Traders are not aggressively directional, but they are unwilling to discount tail risk, a sign that the current range may not hold, the report states.

“Stability” is a mirage

Bitcoin’s sideways trading range between roughly $64,000 and $74,000 has created the appearance of stability, but underlying demand conditions tell a different story. The report describes the market as a “fragile equilibrium,” where weakening spot demand and reduced participation leave prices supported by a thinning base of buyers.

Corporate treasury activity, once a steady source of demand, has narrowed significantly. While firms like Strategy (MSTR) continue to accumulate, others have stepped back or even reduced exposure, including a notable sale by Marathon (MARA). This shift has left the market increasingly dependent on a small number of participants rather than broad-based accumulation.

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At the same time, a large concentration of supply sits above current prices, particularly around $74,000. Investors who bought at higher levels are now looking to exit on rallies, capping upside and reinforcing the range.

Together, these forces suggest bitcoin’s current calm is less a sign of strength than a temporary balance. With demand weakening and derivatives positioning turning more fragile, the market may be more exposed to a sudden break than price action alone implies.

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Crypto World

World Liberty Moves Toward WLFI Unlock Vote After Complaints

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World Liberty Moves Toward WLFI Unlock Vote After Complaints

Decentralized finance (DeFi) platform World Liberty Financial said Friday it plans to put forward next week a governance proposal that would set a phased unlock schedule for WLFI tokens held by early retail purchasers.

The Trump family-linked DeFi platform said the proposal will be opened for community input before proceeding to a formal vote. According to the project, the vote will not cover a full, immediate unlock, but instead a structured, long-term vesting plan designed to release tokens in stages. 

WLFI tokens remain largely locked for early buyers, with transferability tied to governance-approved unlocks. Tokenomist data shows that about 24.67% of WLFI’s 100 billion token supply has been released, while roughly 75.33% remains locked or pending future unlock decisions.

The proposal could determine when early buyers can finally access liquidity in WLFI, whose use is largely limited to governance. It comes as some holders publicly push back against the prolonged lockups and threaten legal action.

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The concerns add to earlier governance decisions around token restrictions. On March 16, WLFI token holders approved a proposal introducing a six-month lock-up rule for certain transfers, marking one of the first formal changes to the project’s transferability framework.

Allocations for WLFI tokens. Source: Tokenomist

Retail buyers challenge prolonged WLFI lockups

World Liberty’s early sale materials said WLFI tokens were non-transferable and could remain locked indefinitely, with any future unlock subject to a governance vote no earlier than 12 months after the token sale and with no guaranteed timeline.

That 12-month threshold has already passed, with WLFI’s public sale beginning around mid-October 2024, placing the current proposal roughly 18 months after the initial sale. The company raised at least $550 million from WLFI token sales across two funding rounds.

Some self-identified WLFI presale buyers have publicly complained that most of their holdings remain locked, even as parts of the broader token supply have become transferable. 

At least one self-identified buyer said they had filed legal notices and were pursuing claims in the United States and the Netherlands against World Liberty Financial and its backers. Cointelegraph could not independently verify that any lawsuit had been filed. 

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Cointelegraph reached out to World Liberty Financial for comments, but had not received a response by publication. 

Related: WLFI proposes governance staking system and USD1 usage incentives

Onchain borrowing activity adds to holder concerns

One community member said in an X post that the project’s borrowing activity raised concerns among token holders, questioning how treasury funds were being used. Onchain data shows that World Liberty Financial’s treasury borrowed roughly $75 million in stablecoins from Dolomite using WLFI as collateral.

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