Bitcoin traded at $70,981 on Thursday, down 0.5% over 24 hours but still up 6.1% on the week, as the two-week ceasefire between the U.S. and Iran that triggered Tuesday’s broad rally began showing cracks less than 48 hours after it was announced.

Iranian Parliament Speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf said three clauses of the ceasefire proposal had been contravened, without specifying which ones. Israeli attacks continued in Lebanon.

And the Strait of Hormuz, the critical shipping lane whose reopening was supposed to be the centerpiece of the deal, remains effectively closed with minimal tanker traffic passing through despite Iran’s pledge to allow “coordinated” transit.

Brent crude rebounded 2% to about $97 after Wednesday’s collapse of more than 10%, its worst single-day plunge in six years. The reversal reflects how quickly the market has moved from pricing in peace to pricing in uncertainty about whether the ceasefire holds through the weekend, let alone for the full two weeks.

Ether fell 2.6% to $2,180 after leading the ceasefire rally with a 5.2% weekly gain. Solana’s SOL dropped 3.1% to $81.96, XRP lost 3% to $1.33, and dogecoin slid 3.4% to $0.091. BNB held relatively flat at $600, down 2.2%.

The MSCI Asia Pacific Index fell 0.9% with two stocks declining for every one that rose, after surging the most in a year on Wednesday’s ceasefire euphoria. S&P 500 and European futures pointed to a 0.2% decline, signaling the four-day winning streak for global equities was about to end. Treasuries were steady after wiping out an earlier rally on concern that higher oil prices would feed back into inflation.

Meanwhile, The Federal Reserve continues to highlight upside inflation risks alongside softening labor conditions, keeping the higher-for-longer rate narrative intact. Japan’s wage growth has hit multi-decade highs, strengthening expectations for further rate hikes.

That combination amounts to what one analyst described as “uncoordinated tightening” across major economies, layered on top of geopolitical uncertainty that prevents any stable anchor for rate expectations.

For bitcoin specifically, the move from $67,000 to $72,700 on the ceasefire and the subsequent hold above $70,000 despite Thursday’s wobble is the most constructive price action since the war began six weeks ago.

The $65,000 to $73,000 range that has contained every move since late February is still intact, but bitcoin is now testing the upper half rather than grinding along the bottom.

A South Korean court has canceled the Financial Intelligence Unit’s (FIU) three-month partial business suspension of Dunamu, the operator of crypto exchange Upbit, according to local reports.

Yonhap News Agency reported on Tuesday that the Seoul Administrative Court sided with Dunamu in its lawsuit against the FIU, overturning the sanction tied to alleged Anti-Money Laundering (AML) violations. 

The court said clear rules existed for transactions above 1 million won (about $675), but found that regulations for smaller transfers were not specific enough, weakening the basis for enforcement within the case. 

The ruling narrows the FIU’s ability to impose major AML sanctions on crypto exchanges where the underlying compliance standards are not spelled out clearly enough in practice. It also ends a dispute that began after FIU imposed the sanction in February 2025, and that was later paused by the court while Dunamu’s challenge was under review.

Court cites lack of guidance in Dunamu decision

Addressing the FIU’s claim that Dunamu failed to take adequate measures, the court said the regulator had not provided specific guidance on what actions were required. In that context, the court found that the company had taken its own measures. 

The court said that even if those measures appear insufficient in hindsight, it is difficult to conclude that Dunamu failed to fulfill its obligations due to intent or gross negligence, undermining the basis for the sanction. 

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FIU sanction triggered a legal challenge from Dunamu

On Feb. 25, 2025, the FIU imposed a three-month partial suspension on Dunamu, restricting new Upbit users from transferring digital assets. 

The regulator said the measure followed an on-site inspection that found Dunamu had facilitated transactions with unregistered overseas virtual asset providers (VASPs) and failed to meet customer due diligence requirements. 

The FIU previously said it identified over 600,000 suspected Know Your Customer violations during a review of Upbit’s exchange business license. 

In response to the sanction, Dunamu filed a lawsuit and requested an injunction to halt its enforcement shortly after the penalty was announced. On Feb. 28, 2025, Dunamu said it had submitted the case seeking to overturn the partial suspension order.

On March 27, 2025, the court granted the injunction, allowing Upbit to continue onboarding new users while the case was under review. 

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