Stellar (XLM) has fallen below $0.20. This move has erased all of the recovery it achieved last year. However, several positive signals suggest that many investors are still staying within the ecosystem.

In addition, real-world assets (RWA) and stablecoins could become key drivers of further XLM accumulation.

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Positive Signs for Stellar (XLM) Despite the Sharp Price Drop

Data from DefiLlama shows that the amount of XLM locked in DeFi protocols on the Stellar network reached a new all-time high in early February 2026. It surpassed 900 million XLM.

This milestone reflects the growth of Stellar’s DeFi ecosystem. It comes even as XLM continues to fall below the year’s key support level at $0.20.

Although Stellar’s TVL, measured in USD, currently sits around $163 million, the sharp rise in locked XLM underscores strong confidence from the community and long-term investors in the network’s adoption potential.

The main protocols driving this capital inflow include Blend, a liquidity protocol that allows anyone to create flexible lending markets on Stellar, and Aquarius Stellar, an AMM protocol and liquidity management layer for the network. Together, these two protocols account for nearly 70% of total TVL.

Artemis data also reveals another notable signal. Weekly active users across the Stellar ecosystem have remained steady at around 60,000 over the past few weeks. No significant decline has appeared despite the deep XLM price dump.

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The chart indicates that in late 2024, when XLM fell below $0.10 before rising to $0.60, user activity remained stable and even trended upwards.

This suggests that Stellar users are not abandoning the network, even as capital continues to exit the broader crypto market. However, the current lack of new users may explain why XLM has not yet recovered.

Derivatives metrics also indicate that XLM could be entering a new consolidation zone. Open Interest volume has dropped to its lowest level since November 2024. This decline reflects a sharp reduction in leveraged exposure among traders.

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As a result, strong volatility may be fading. XLM could now be moving into a sideways phase, with less leveraged buying and selling pressure. This environment often allows a new accumulation zone to form.

However, identifying the exact market bottom and timing a recovery remains challenging under current market conditions.

Real-World Assets and Stablecoins Could Be Stellar’s Main Drivers in 2026

A report published last month stated that the total value of tokenized real-world assets on Stellar, excluding stablecoins, reached $1 billion at the start of this year.

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Santiment, a crypto market analytics platform, also reported that Stellar ranks among the top four RWA projects by GitHub development activity since the beginning of the year.

“XLM isn’t a speculative add-on. It’s required for transactions, account operations, and network activity. As RWA volumes grow, usage of $XLM scales with it — not cyclically, but fundamentally,” said Scopuly, a Stellar wallet provider.

Stellar’s stablecoin market cap remains relatively modest at around $200 million. However, MoneyGram, one of the world’s leading companies in international remittance services and P2P payments, recently reaffirmed the stability of its USD-backed stablecoin instrument. The firm continues testing it on Stellar.

Therefore, demand for RWAs and stablecoins could become the primary drivers of XLM accumulation, especially as the token faces strong selling pressure near current lows.

Bitcoin fell sharply to $73,000 on February 3, extending a broader bearish trend that has now erased 41% from its October 2025 all-time high above $126,000. The drawdown has intensified debate over whether the market is approaching a cyclical bottom—or entering a deeper corrective phase.

The sell-off mirrors rising anxiety across traditional markets. US equity indices weakened amid concerns about artificial intelligence-driven disruption and escalating geopolitical risks, prompting investors to rotate away from risk assets. 

In that environment, capital flowed back into traditional safe havens such as gold and silver, while Bitcoin failed to attract defensive demand.

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Macro and Geopolitical Stress Push Investors Toward Traditional Havens

Bitcoin’s volatility continues to reflect macro sensitivity rather than isolation from global markets. The latest leg down coincided with renewed tensions between the United States and Iran after an Iranian drone was reportedly shot down near a US aircraft carrier. 

The incident pushed the VIX up roughly 10% and drove the Crypto Fear & Greed Index into “extreme fear” territory.

At the same time, developments in artificial intelligence—including new announcements around Anthropic’s Claude chatbot—sparked renewed concerns about disruption across the tech sector. 

That uncertainty weighed on major technology stocks and further reduced appetite for speculative assets.

While Bitcoin declined, gold rose 6.8% and silver gained 10%, reinforcing their role as preferred hedges during periods of monetary and geopolitical stress.

Speaking to CNN, Gerry O’Shea, Global Head of Market Insights at Hashdex, noted that the divergence between Bitcoin and gold suggests investors still view precious metals as the primary safe haven during periods of uncertainty. 

That shift has weakened Bitcoin’s short-term refuge narrative and added downside pressure.

Analysts Warn of Deeper Drawdowns and a Potential Bull Trap

Market participants remain divided, but several analysts are openly warning that the correction may not be over.

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Crypto analyst Benjamin Cowen argued that Bitcoin’s near-term path is critical:

Other analysts are more pessimistic. Nehal, a widely followed trader on X, suggested the current structure resembles a classic bull trap, warning that the move lower may only be halfway complete.

According to Nehal’s historical comparison, Bitcoin’s previous cycles ended with drawdowns of 86% in 2018 and 78% in 2021. 

Applying a similar framework to the current cycle implies a potential 72% decline, which would place Bitcoin near $35,000.

This cyclical perspective remains influential despite structural changes in the market, including ETF adoption and greater institutional participation.

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On-Chain Data Signals “Bottom Discovery” Phase

On-chain indicators are adding another layer to the debate. Analyst CryptOpus noted that Bitcoin has entered what he describes as a “bottom discovery” phase for the first time this cycle.

At the 2025 peak, roughly 19.8 million BTC were held in profit. That figure has now dropped to 11.1 million BTC, a 40% reduction in profitable supply.

Historically, similar conditions have marked transitions from corrective phases toward cycle resets. In 2018, Bitcoin remained in this state for roughly eight months before stabilizing.

Key Technical Levels Under Scrutiny

From a technical standpoint, downside risks remain clearly defined. Nic, CEO of Coin Bureau, highlighted that Bitcoin has remained under pressure since breaking below the 50-week moving average in November.

Bitcoin is currently trading near MicroStrategy’s cost basis and close to the April lows around $74,400.

“If we break lower, the next major level is $70,000, just above the previous all-time high of $69,000. A clean break below that opens the door to a bear market target in the $55,700–$58,200 range, between realized price and the 200-week moving average,” Nic warned.

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Conflicting Views on Whether a Bottom Is Near

Not all analysts agree with the bearish outlook. Michaël van de Poppe believes Bitcoin may already be nearing the end of its downturn.

Meanwhile, analyst David Battaglia focused on liquidation dynamics, describing current conditions as increasingly irrational.

Battaglia noted that below $85,000, liquidity gaps were significant, meaning panic sellers—whether institutional or whales—likely exited at suboptimal prices. 

He contrasted this with the October 10 crash tied to Binance, which he described as structurally cleaner.

“Between $90,000 and $100,000, there’s massive short density and a 14:1 puts-to-calls imbalance, which under normal conditions already signals a strong bottom,” Battaglia said.

In Summary

Bitcoin’s drop to $73,000 has reignited fears of a deeper correction. Macro uncertainty, geopolitical tension, and mixed on-chain signals leave the market split between expectations of further downside and signs of an emerging bottom. 

The coming weeks will likely determine whether this move represents a temporary pause—or the foundation of a new trend for 2026.

• Solana dropped to $90 amid massive liquidations across the crypto market.
• Bitcoin and Ethereum fell to under $73,000 and $2,150.
• Standard Chartered forecasts SOL rally to $250 in 2026 and $2,000 by 2030.

Cryptocurrencies are bearish, and Solana’s price has experienced one of the sharpest declines among top altcoins.

In the past 24 hours, the cryptocurrency has dropped nearly 10% to under $91, with many traders caught off guard amid heightened market volatility.

As can be seen in the crypto heat map below, Solana’s plunge aligns with broader market pressure. Billions of dollars in leveraged positions have been wiped out in the past week as the sector faces massive unwinding.

Price dips 10% amid crypto liquidations

With market sentiment in shambles for much of 2026, it is no surprise that Bitcoin tanked to its multi-month lows of $72,800.

BTC and ETH’s latest dips mean Michael Saylor’s Strategy and Tom Lee’s BitMine currently sit on billions of dollars in unrealized losses.

Digital asset treasury companies that flocked to Solana, BNB, Cardano, and others have similar trajectories.

For Solana, the coin’s price under the psychological level of $100 has strengthened this. Sellers sustained this negative trend with another 10% push over the past 24 hours, hitting lows of $90.60.

Onchain perpetual markets on Solana contributed significantly, with over $70 million in liquidations from Solana-based platforms in the past 24 hours.

During the downturn, over $65 million of these were longs.

The surge in forced selling exacerbated the decline, with high leverage amplifying losses for over 15,900 bullish traders.

The liquidations reflect the rapid deleveraging that has also wiped billions of bullish bets from Bitcoin and Ethereum.

Solana price prediction

The SOL dip is part of a broader market correction, but there’s a potential for recovery if bulls hold $90.

However, liquidity contractions and liquidation overhangs, such as the $800 million in total liquidations in the past 24 hours, suggest a possible down leg as excess leverage clears.

The technical picture also has Solana trading below its 50-day moving average around $132, which adds to the bearish outlook of the RSI and MACD.

SOL could drop to $70 if markets continue to struggle.

Despite the overall bearish picture, Standard Chartered has pointed out a bullish forecast for SOL.

According to the bank, SOL could reach $2,000 by 2030 but has cut its 2026 forecast to from about $310 to $250.

Catalysts include the macro picture and capital flows, as well as a fresh explosion in rotation from memecoins to top altcoins. Stablecoin adoption is another factor in the bank’s outlook.

Nomura Holdings pushed back against suggestions it is losing confidence in crypto, saying tighter risk controls at its Laser Digital unit are designed to limit short-term earning swings while it focuses on longer-term strategies, the bank told CoinDesk in emailed comments on Wednesday.

“Given the nature of the crypto-asset business, we recognize that a certain level of earnings volatility is inherent, and we recognize the importance of taking a medium- to long-term perspective,” the bank said. “At the same time, to limit short-term earnings swings, we have further tightened position and risk limits. We will continue to capture growth opportunities in the crypto market while strengthening our services and customer base.”

The clarification follows comments from Nomura’s chief financial officer, Hiroyuki Moriuchi, who said during an earnings briefing that the firm introduced “stricter position management” at Laser Digital to reduce risk exposure and limit earnings swings driven by crypto market volatility. Losses at the unit contributed to a 9.7% decline in Nomura’s fiscal third-quarter profit.

The bank’s strategy shift comes as the crypto market is hit by a steep decline with total value slumping by nearly half a trillion since Jan. 29, according to CoinGecko data. Bitcoin tumbled to its lowest level since President Donald Trump won re-election in early November 2024 on Tuesday, hitting a low of $72,870 although it later bounced back to over $76,000, according to CoinDesk data.

Nomura’s decision follows the Oct. 10 flash crash, which wiped out more than $19 billion in leveraged positions just days after bitcoin hit a record high above $126,200. Bitcoin ended the year around $87,000, roughly 31% below its peak, while total crypto market capitalization also fell over 30% to just over $3 trillion.

Nomura denied the decision means it has lost faith in the sector. “Laser Digital’s risk controls performed as designed: exposure was reduced early, losses were contained, and the firm avoided the more severe impacts felt worldwide,” it said.

The banking firm, considered Japan’s largest investment bank, with $673 billion in assets under management as of late last year, acknowledged that volatility is an unavoidable feature of the crypto business.

“By nature of the digital asset business, Laser Digital and other industry peers have beta exposure to the market,” the bank told CoinDesk. “However, risk taking at Laser Digital is at Trad-Fi institutional grade, and Q3 performance is not representative of any fundamental weakness.”

For years, Ethereum’s layer-2 networks have marketed themselves as extensions of Ethereum itself. “Arbitrum is Ethereum,” Offchain Labs co-founder Steven Goldfeder wrote on X in March 2024. “Base is Ethereum,” Coinbase’s layer-2 team posted in April 2025.

But following recent comments from Ethereum co-founder Vitalik Buterin questioning whether Ethereum still needs a dedicated layer-2 roadmap, many of those same teams are now emphasizing something different: that rollups are not Ethereum at all.

Goldfeder, for one, struck a noticeably different tone after Buterin’s post, writing on X instead: “Arbitrum is not Ethereum.”

“It’s a core part of the ecosystem, a close-knit ally, and has enjoyed a symbiotic relationship for the last half-decade. But it is not Ethereum,” he added in the post.

Buterin’s remarks, which suggested that as Ethereum becomes faster and cheaper, the original rationale for layer-2s may be shifting, reignited debate over whether rollups will become less necessary as the base layer improves.

Layer-2 networks were previously incorporated into Ethereum’s roadmap to scale the network by processing transactions off the main blockchain and settling them back to Ethereum, helping reduce congestion and fees.

The debate is not abstract. Several layer-2 networks now secure billions of dollars in user funds, making them some of the largest platforms in crypto. Coinbase-backed Base holds roughly $4 billion in total value locked, while Arbitrum secures more than $2 billion, according to DefiLlama data.

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‘Less relevant’

But leaders across the layer-2 ecosystem say this moment is being misunderstood.

Rather than signaling an existential threat, they argue, Ethereum’s progress is forcing rollups to clarify their purpose and to stand on their own.

Ben Fisch of the Espresso Foundation said Buterin’s comments reflect a logical evolution in how Ethereum’s scaling strategy is being framed.

“I think that Vitalik’s post is very consistent with that idea now that he’s saying, ‘The whole purpose of layer-2s in the first place was to scale Ethereum. Well, now we’re making Ethereum faster so they’re becoming less relevant,” Fisch said to CoinDesk in an interview.

Still, Fisch rejected the idea that this makes rollups obsolete.

“I think it’s the start of layer-2s flourishing and becoming independent from Ethereum,” he said.

“A layer-2 may use Ethereum as a service, but it by no means is beholden to Ethereum or what the leaders of Ethereum think.”

That perspective is increasingly echoed by layer-2 leaders themselves.

Base, Coinbase’s layer-2 network, welcomed improvements at the base layer, with Jesse Pollak, the head of Base, calling Ethereum scaling “a win for the entire ecosystem,” while stressing that rollups will need to offer more than lower fees.

“Going forward, L2s can’t just be ‘Ethereum but cheaper,’” Pollak said.

Polygon CEO Marc Boiron made a similar argument. Polygon recently said it would pivot its efforts to focus primarily on payments, and Boiron said Buterin’s comments were less about abandoning rollups than about raising expectations for them.

“Vitalik’s point was not that rollups are a mistake, but that scaling alone is insufficient,” Boiron told CoinDesk. “The real challenge is building a unique blockspace that works for real-world use cases like payments, where cost, reliability, and consistency matter.”

Others have gone further, arguing that rollups should be understood as independent platforms rather than extensions of Ethereum itself. Jing Wang, co-founder of the Optimism Foundation and CEO of OP Labs, compared layer-2s to standalone web services.

“L2s are websites. Every company will have its own, tailored to its needs. Ethereum is an open settlement standard,” Wang said to CoinDesk. “It’s important for Ethereum to stay true to those base layer values to give L2s the flexibility to customize.”

Taken together, the reactions suggest that while Buterin’s post has raised questions about the role of layer-2s, leaders across the ecosystem see it less as a threat than as a transition, one that is forcing rollups to reconcile how they’ve branded themselves with what they are now trying to become.

Read more: ‘You are not scaling Ethereum’: Vitalik Buterin issues a blunt reality check to the biggest crypto networks

The Solana price remains under heavy pressure in early February, with the token down nearly 30% over the past 30 days and trading inside a weakening descending channel. Price continues to grind toward the lower boundary of this structure as long-term conviction fades.

At the same time, net staking activity has collapsed, exchange buying has slowed, and short-term traders are building positions again. Together, these signals suggest that more SOL is becoming available for potential selling just as technical support weakens.

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Staking Collapse Meets Descending Channel Breakdown Risk

Solana’s latest weakness is being reinforced by a sharp drop in staking activity. The Solana staking difference metric tracks the weekly net change in SOL locked in native staking accounts. Positive values show new staking, while negative readings indicate net unstaking.

In late November, long-term conviction was strong. During the week ending November 24, staking accounts recorded net inflows of over 6.34 million SOL, marking a major accumulation phase.

That trend has now fully reversed. By mid-January, weekly staking flows had turned negative. The week ending January 19 showed net unstaking of around –449,819 SOL. By February 2, this had worsened to –1,155,788 SOL, a surge of roughly 150% in unstaking within two weeks.

Want more token insights like this? Sign up for Editor Harsh Notariya’s Daily Crypto Newsletter here.

This means a growing amount of SOL is being unlocked from staking and returned to liquid circulation. Once unstaked, these tokens can be moved to exchanges and sold immediately, increasing downside risk.

This collapse is happening as price trades near the lower edge of its descending channel with a 30% breakdown possibility in play.

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With SOL hovering near $96, the combination of technical weakness and rising liquid supply creates a dangerous setup. If selling accelerates, the channel support may not hold.

Exchange Buying Slows as Speculators Increase Exposure

Falling staking activity is now being reflected in exchange flows. Exchange Net Position Change tracks how much SOL moves onto or off exchanges over a rolling 30-day period. Negative values indicate net outflows and accumulation, while rising readings signal slowing demand.

On February 1, this metric stood near –2.25 million SOL, showing strong buying pressure. By February 3, it had weakened to around –1.66 million SOL. In just two days, exchange outflows dropped by nearly 26%, signaling that accumulation has slowed.

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This decline in buying is occurring as unstaking accelerates, increasing the amount of SOL available for trading. When supply rises while demand weakens, the price becomes more vulnerable to sharp declines.

At the same time, speculative activity is rising.

HODL Waves data, which separates wallets based on holding time, shows that the one-day to one-week cohort increased its share from 3.51% to 5.06% between February 2 and February 3. This group represents short-term Solana holders who typically enter during volatility and exit quickly.

Similar behavior appeared in late January. On January 27, this cohort held 5.26% of the supply when SOL traded near $127. By January 30, their share dropped to 4.31% as the price fell to $117, a decline of nearly 8%.

This pattern suggests that speculative money is positioning for short-term bounces rather than long-term holding, increasing the risk that bounces will fade.

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Key Solana Price Levels Still Point to $65 Risk

Technical structure continues to mirror the weakness seen in on-chain data. SOL remains locked inside a descending channel that has guided price lower since November. After losing the critical $98 support zone, the price is now trading near $96, close to the channel’s lower boundary.

If this support fails, the next major downside target lies near $67, based on Fibonacci projections. A deeper move could extend toward $65, aligning with the full measured 30% breakdown of the channel.

On the upside, recovery remains difficult. The first level that Solana must reclaim is $98, followed by stronger resistance near $117, which capped multiple rallies in January. A sustained move above $117 would be required to neutralize the bearish structure.

Until then, downside risks remain elevated.

With staking collapsing, exchange buying weakening, and speculative positioning rising, more SOL is entering circulation just as technical support weakens. Unless long-term accumulation returns, Solana remains vulnerable to a deeper correction toward $65.

Social media sentiment continues to turn against Binance for its alleged role in crypto liquidations on October 10.

Immediately after October 10, traders were already threatening legal action. However, this year, new lawsuits and arbitrations look to be underway, along with numerous other complaints and legal setbacks.

A simple chart of crypto asset prices illustrates the reason for the dogpile of complaints against Binance.

Following months of clear correlation with broad indices like the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100, crypto decoupled precisely on October 10 — and has trended downward ever since.

Read more: Binance’s $1B BTC buy fails to win back trust after Oct. 10

October 10 auto-deLeveraging

As the world’s largest crypto exchange, Binance had a unique role to play in October 10.

For example, flash-crash prices as low as 99.9% existed only on the exchange on that date, and it had just changed its pricing feeds and treatment of a major stablecoin, Ethena USDE.

Wintermute CEO Evgeny Gaevoy called Binance’s Auto-DeLeveraging prices “very strange,”  while Ark Invest’s Cathie Wood blamed billions in crypto liquidations on a Binance “software glitch.”

A post with millions of impressions also called out errors in Binance’s pricing oracles for cross-margin unified accounts.

Ethena USDE played a particularly important role in Binance’s October 10 liquidations. After crashing to less than $0.67 on Binance, USDE has regained its $1 peg but has shed more than half its market capitalization since 10/10.

Binance attempts to restore confidence

Without admitting to responsibility, Binance nonetheless quickly — and voluntarily — agreed to pay huge sums of money to customers that suffered losses on that date.

Shortly after the event, Binance announced $328 million in compensation plus another $400 million worth of loans and vouchers.

In another attempt restore confidence amid the bearish knock-on effects of October 10, Binance announced in late January 2026 that it would use its entire $1 billion SAFU (Secure Asset Fund for Users) emergency reserve to buy bitcoin (BTC) over a 30-day period.

It has not helped much. The giant BTC buy failed to win back its fans-turned-critics, with negative topics about Binance still trending on social media on a nearly daily basis.

As pressure continues to build over the exchange’s role in the historic liquidation event, founder Changpeng Zhao has blamed fake social media and unrelated bitcoin traders for bearishness.

He also attempted to divert blame from Binance onto Donald Trump for the crash, saying, “It’s pretty clear that the tariff announcements preceded the crash, not Binance system issues or Binance doing anything.”

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CME Group CEO Terry Duffy has suggested the derivatives giant is exploring launching its own cryptocurrency.

In response to a question from Morgan Stanley’s Michael Cyprys during the company’s latest earnings call, Duffy confirmed the firm is exploring “initiatives with our own coin that we could potentially put on a decentralized network.”

The comment was brief and came in response to a question about the role of tokenized collateral. In response, Duffy first noted that the world’s largest derivatives exchange is carefully reviewing different forms of margin.

“So if you were to give me a token from a systemically important financial institution, I would probably be more comfortable than maybe a third or fourth-tier bank trying to issue a token for margin,” Duffy said. “Not only are we looking at tokenized cash, we’re looking at different initiatives with our own coin.”

The company is already working on a “tokenized cash” solution with Google that’s set to come out later this year and will involve a depository bank facilitating transactions. The “own coin” Duffy referenced appears to be a different token that the firm could “potentially put on a decentralized network for other of our industry participants to use.”

The CME declined to clarify whether this “coin” would function as a stablecoin, settlement token or something else entirely when asked by CoinDesk.

However, if such an initiative goes through, the implications are significant.

While CME Group has previously flagged tokenization as a general area of interest, CEO Terry Duffy’s comments this week mark the first time the exchange has explicitly floated the concept of a proprietary, CME-issued asset running on a decentralized network.

The firm is set to launch 24/7 trading for all crypto futures in the second quarter of the year, and is also set to soon offer cardano, chainlink and stellar futures contracts.

CME’s average daily crypto trading volume hit $12 billion last year, with its micro-ether and micro-bitcoin futures contracts being top performers.

The launch wouldn’t make CME the first traditional finance giant to launch its own token. JPMorgan has recently rolled out tokenized deposits on Coinbase’s layer-2 blockchain Base via its so-called JPM Coin (JPMD), quietly rewiring how Wall Street moves money.