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Bitcoin Long-Term Holdings Rise, Indicating Investor Confidence

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TLDR

  • Bitcoin’s long-term holder supply has turned positive over the past 30 days.
  • More Bitcoin is now being held by investors for the long term rather than being sold.
  • The change in supply comes from coins aging past six months and entering the long-term holder category.
  • Despite the price dropping below $70,000, long-term holders have increased their supply by 308,000 BTC.
  • Currently, 29% of long-term holder supply is in loss, which is still below past cycle bottom levels.

Bitcoin (BTC) has seen a shift in long-term holder supply over the past month. Data indicate that investors are holding onto their assets, with long-term supply rising in recent weeks. Despite recent price challenges, this trend shows a change in investor behavior.

Bitcoin Faces Selling Pressure Despite Increased Long-Term Holdings

On April 6, Bitcoin briefly surpassed the $70,000 mark but was unable to sustain this price level, dropping to around $68,000. Despite the downward price action, Bitcoin’s long-term holder supply has flipped positive over the past 30 days. This increase stems from coins transitioning from short-term to long-term holdings as they age past six months.

The rise in long-term holder supply marks a shift in the market, as more Bitcoin is now being retained in wallets. This trend reflects a decision by investors to hold rather than sell their coins. Data from analyst Darkfost confirms this, highlighting a jump from -674,000 BTC to a positive +308,000 BTC over the past 30 days. This shift indicates a growing number of investors holding onto their Bitcoin.

Data Suggests a Long-Term Holding Trend

The increase in Bitcoin’s long-term supply comes from coins that have not been moved for over six months. Darkfost clarified that this data does not necessarily reflect new buying, but rather coins that have simply aged into the long-term holder category. These coins have remained untouched for a significant period, reflecting a preference for holding rather than selling.

According to the analyst, this shift in behavior is notable, as it signals a growing inclination to retain Bitcoin even during periods of low spot demand. Historically, similar changes in long-term holder supply have preceded price increases, although Darkfost cautioned that it is too early to confirm a lasting trend. The current data suggests that more investors are making the choice to hold Bitcoin in anticipation of future gains.

Bitcoin Long-Term Holder Supply in Loss Still Below Past Cycle Levels

Although long-term holder supply is increasing, a significant portion of this supply remains in loss. At present, 29% of Bitcoin held by long-term investors is in the red. This figure is still well below previous market cycle bottoms, where losses reached 44% to 53%. This suggests that Bitcoin’s market has not yet reached its lowest point, despite the rise in long-term holder supply.

Market analysts, including Ardi, have noted that similar loss levels in previous years, 2015, 2018, and 2022, marked the bottom of market cycles.

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While the current loss percentage remains lower, it continues to rise, signaling that Bitcoin may be heading towards new lows. This increase in long-term holders could potentially influence Bitcoin’s price trajectory, but investors remain cautious as the market adjusts.

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Crypto World

World Liberty Moves Toward WLFI Unlock Vote After Complaints

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World Liberty Moves Toward WLFI Unlock Vote After Complaints

Decentralized finance (DeFi) platform World Liberty Financial said Friday it plans to put forward next week a governance proposal that would set a phased unlock schedule for WLFI tokens held by early retail purchasers.

The Trump family-linked DeFi platform said the proposal will be opened for community input before proceeding to a formal vote. According to the project, the vote will not cover a full, immediate unlock, but instead a structured, long-term vesting plan designed to release tokens in stages. 

WLFI tokens remain largely locked for early buyers, with transferability tied to governance-approved unlocks. Tokenomist data shows that about 24.67% of WLFI’s 100 billion token supply has been released, while roughly 75.33% remains locked or pending future unlock decisions.

The proposal could determine when early buyers can finally access liquidity in WLFI, whose use is largely limited to governance. It comes as some holders publicly push back against the prolonged lockups and threaten legal action.

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The concerns add to earlier governance decisions around token restrictions. On March 16, WLFI token holders approved a proposal introducing a six-month lock-up rule for certain transfers, marking one of the first formal changes to the project’s transferability framework.

Allocations for WLFI tokens. Source: Tokenomist

Retail buyers challenge prolonged WLFI lockups

World Liberty’s early sale materials said WLFI tokens were non-transferable and could remain locked indefinitely, with any future unlock subject to a governance vote no earlier than 12 months after the token sale and with no guaranteed timeline.

That 12-month threshold has already passed, with WLFI’s public sale beginning around mid-October 2024, placing the current proposal roughly 18 months after the initial sale. The company raised at least $550 million from WLFI token sales across two funding rounds.

Some self-identified WLFI presale buyers have publicly complained that most of their holdings remain locked, even as parts of the broader token supply have become transferable. 

At least one self-identified buyer said they had filed legal notices and were pursuing claims in the United States and the Netherlands against World Liberty Financial and its backers. Cointelegraph could not independently verify that any lawsuit had been filed. 

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Cointelegraph reached out to World Liberty Financial for comments, but had not received a response by publication. 

Related: WLFI proposes governance staking system and USD1 usage incentives

Onchain borrowing activity adds to holder concerns

One community member said in an X post that the project’s borrowing activity raised concerns among token holders, questioning how treasury funds were being used. Onchain data shows that World Liberty Financial’s treasury borrowed roughly $75 million in stablecoins from Dolomite using WLFI as collateral.

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