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3 Polymarket Traders Bet on US-Iran Ceasefire, Signaling Forecasts

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Crypto Breaking News

Fresh on-chain analytics show that three newly created wallets pocketed a combined $484,575 from Polymarket’s “US x Iran ceasefire by April 7” market, intensifying scrutiny over insider trading risks in prediction markets. Lookonchain highlighted that these wallets had no prior on-chain activity before placing their bets, suggesting rapid, opportunistic participation around a geopolitical event that drew intense attention.

Polymarket’s public activity feed confirms the three profits—$200,525, $158,600 and $125,450—were realized as trading continued during the period around the ceasefire news. The bets were placed at modest odds, with “yes” positions priced between roughly 2.9% and 10.3%. The payout occurred after the United States and Iran agreed to a two-week ceasefire on Tuesday, though both sides left room for the possibility of renewed action. The timing of the trades is notable: the earliest bet was placed at 1:59 pm UTC on Tuesday, roughly eight and a half hours before a Truth Social post by President Donald Trump at 10:32 pm UTC confirming a ceasefire. The other two positions opened at 10:01 am UTC on Tuesday and 8:50 pm UTC on Monday, according to blockchain-trace data.

Source: Lookonchain

The sequence of bets and the subsequent payout underscore a broader conversation about how prediction markets operate during geopolitical flux. As the market settled on a ceasefire timeline, participants with little or no on-chain history reportedly benefited significantly, prompting questions about information asymmetry, liquidity, and whether such patterns reflect legitimate hedging strategies or exploitative activity. While the event resolved into a temporary pause in hostilities, the underlying dynamics have sparked ongoing debate about how to monitor and regulate speculative markets tied to real-world events.

Prediction markets have emerged as a rapidly expanding niche within the crypto landscape. Industry observers note that prediction markets have become one of the fastest-growing uses for crypto, often surpassing $10 billion in monthly trading volume. The trend has drawn attention from policymakers who worry about insider trading and market manipulation that could undermine market integrity and consumer trust.

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Key takeaways

  • Three new Polymarket wallets earned a combined $484,575 from the US x Iran ceasefire by April 7 market, with wallets showing no prior on-chain activity before placing bets.
  • The profits break down as $200,525, $158,600 and $125,450, with yes bets priced between 2.9% and 10.3% odds.
  • One trader placed the first bet at 1:59 pm UTC on Tuesday—about eight and a half hours before the ceasefire confirmation—while the others opened at 10:01 am UTC Tuesday and 8:50 pm UTC Monday, according to on-chain records.
  • Prediction markets continue to attract high volumes (often exceeding $10 billion per month), but they face increasing regulatory scrutiny and calls for stronger market-surveillance measures.
  • Polymarket and Kalshi have started implementing safeguards to deter insider trading, including Kalshi’s independent advisory committee and a partnership with Solidus Labs for market abuse detection.

Geopolitics, markets and the regulatory glare

The episode sits at the intersection of rapid geopolitical news, crypto trading innovation and regulatory pushback. In January, U.S. lawmakers introduced a bill to curb officials from trading on prediction platforms after a Polymarket user reportedly profited more than $400,000 on a market tied to Nicolás Maduro. The proposal aims to reduce potential conflicts of interest and information leakage in sensitive bets, highlighting how policy makers view prediction markets as both open financial experiments and potential governance risks.

Meanwhile, international authorities have pursued legal action against traders seen as abusing information channels. In February, Israeli authorities arrested and indicted two individuals for allegedly using confidential information to place bets on a Polymarket event related to Israel’s potential strike on Iran, with one suspect reportedly connected to the Israeli military. These cases emphasize the stakes for traders and platforms alike, and they have spurred exchanges to bolster their surveillance and compliance programs.

To address the risk of market abuse, Polymarket has pursued ongoing improvements in oversight, while Kalshi has taken notable steps. Kalshi announced the formation of an independent advisory committee and a collaboration with Solidus Labs to enhance detection and investigation of market abuse. These measures are part of a broader push across prediction markets to balance innovation with responsible governance and user protection.

As coverage of these developments has shown, the debate over how to regulate prediction markets is shaping product design and market structure. Regulators are weighing how to preserve legitimate hedging and information discovery functions while curbing manipulation and unfair advantages. For traders and developers alike, the question now is how quickly platforms can operationalize robust surveillance without stifling legitimate participation or curtailing beneficial liquidity.

In the meantime, industry observers and investors will watch how policymakers translate sentiment into concrete guidance. The evolving regulatory backdrop, coupled with high-profile insider-trading concerns, could influence where liquidity flows, which markets gain credibility, and how quickly new participants ramp up their activity in this niche of crypto markets.

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As the sector digests these developments, watchers should keep an eye on public disclosures from prediction-market platforms, updates to anti-manipulation tooling, and any new legislation or regulatory guidance that could shape how users access and interact with event-based markets in the months ahead.

Risk & affiliate notice: Crypto assets are volatile and capital is at risk. This article may contain affiliate links. Read full disclosure

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CEXs and DEXs Are Not Competitors. They Are Different Contracts.

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The debate around centralized and decentralized exchanges has always generated more heat than clarity. CEX defenders point to DEX failures and declare the experiment incomplete. Proponents of self-custody treat centralized platforms as institutions to be dismantled. Both camps miss what actually matters: where the risk lives, and who agreed to carry it.

That is the real distinction between a CEX and a DEX. Not the technology, not the product surface, not the fee structure. It is a contract about responsibility.

The Trade-Off CEX Users Accept

When a user deposits on a centralized exchange, they are outsourcing operational complexity. The exchange handles custody, execution, fiat onboarding, and cross-chain access. You can deposit and withdraw through virtually any chain. Fiat flows in and out without requiring wallet management or on-chain knowledge. The friction inherent to crypto infrastructure largely disappears.

But the more significant transfer is less visible. By using a CEX, the user is also handing over accountability, and in doing so, gaining a kind of institutional caregiver. If a liquidation cascade wipes out positions and questions arise about how the platform performed, the exchange can choose to step in with bonuses, fee rebates, or direct compensation.

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We have done this at Phemex, even during periods when the platform was operating at full capacity, when the pressure was highest and the easiest thing would have been to do nothing. That decision exists because there is a business that can make it, a team that can be held accountable, a relationship between platform and trader that goes beyond code.

Exchanges like Binance and Bitunix went down during those same events. We did not. On a centralized exchange, the user’s experience is something the business is personally invested in managing well.

That relationship does not exist on a DEX, by design. Rules are encoded and cannot be negotiated, adjusted for exceptional circumstances, or appealed to a support team. If you deposit to the wrong chain, the funds are gone. If a liquidation cascade hits and the protocol executes against you, no one will step in. The code ran. That is the final answer. There is no one to call, and that is exactly what the protocol’s users agreed to when they connected their wallet.

The Scope DEXs Unlock

The same conditions that remove the safety net also remove the intermediary, and for many users that is the point.

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DEXs meaningfully expand what is possible in crypto. Liquidity provision, governance participation, and fee generation are all accessible to anyone willing to engage with the mechanics, not just to market makers or institutions.

A user who is not a trader can still participate in how markets function by providing liquidity to a pool. Someone holding an asset long-term can earn yield without trusting a third party with custody. When the tokenomics are structured well, users do not just trade on a protocol, they own part of it.

The counterweight is full responsibility. You manage your own wallet, you verify the chain before every transaction, and you accept the fixed parameters of the protocol regardless of whether those parameters favor you in a given situation. DEXs do not make exceptions, and that predictability is genuinely valuable.

But it demands a level of technical awareness and risk tolerance that is not realistic for every user in the market. Not all traders have traded on a DEX, and many have no interest in doing so because they simply do not want the burden of managing all of that themselves. That is a legitimate position, not a failure of ambition.

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In my view, DEXs are a net positive for the ecosystem because they broaden the scope of what is possible by a lot. But users need to enter that environment with a clear understanding of what they are signing up for.

Where Centralized Exchanges Broke the Contract

Centralized exchanges have lost significant credibility over the past two years. FTX was the inflection point, but what came after made clear it was not an isolated failure. The pattern that emerged, platforms operating with backdoor arrangements, extracting value from users, managing reserves in ways that contradicted their public statements, damaged the confidence of retail participants in ways that have not fully recovered.

I have watched the sentiment shift in real time. Two or three years ago, the message of crypto was clear: alternative infrastructure, more freedom, more transparency, against institutions that resisted all of it. The adversary was traditional finance, the banks, the suits. That message has changed. What I see now is users against crypto scammers, honest participants against extractive ones. The adversary is no longer external. Platforms like Binance, which is now navigating a serious PR crisis of its own making, have become the entrenched incumbents that users are pushing back against. The very thing crypto was built to challenge, opaque institutions that operate in their own interest, has emerged inside the industry.

This is the responsibility that falls on those of us running centralized exchanges. The users who deposit on our platforms are making a specific bet: that the caregiver model is worth the trade-off, that handing over custody and self-sovereignty is worth the protection and the managed experience they get in return. When platforms violate that implicit agreement, they do not just hurt themselves. They push users toward self-custody and decentralized protocols, and given what some of those platforms did, that response is completely rational. The leaders of this industry failed to hold that trust. That is simply true.

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The DEX market share relative to CEXs has grown month over month throughout 2025. Users are not moving to DEXs because on-chain execution suddenly became easier. They are moving because they stopped trusting the people running centralized platforms.

The Honest Framework

Neither model is inherently superior, and anyone telling you otherwise is trying to sell you something.

The question worth asking is much simpler: what kind of relationship does this user actually want with their trading environment? Someone who wants cross-chain deposits, fiat access, and a platform that takes responsibility when things go wrong will be better served on a centralized exchange like Phemex.

Someone who wants direct protocol interaction, self-custody, and participation in the underlying economics will be better served on a DEX, provided they understand the technical responsibility that comes with it.

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These are different users making different choices about where risk should sit. The industry owes both of them honesty about the terms of that choice. Centralized exchanges cannot promise security while operating without transparency. Decentralized platforms cannot promise freedom while downplaying the responsibility users absorb in exchange.

What the next cycle requires from both sides is straightforward: say clearly what you are, deliver on it, and stop pretending the other model does not exist or does not serve a real purpose.

At Phemex, that is the standard we hold ourselves to. Not because it makes for a useful message. Because it is the only version of this business worth running.

The post CEXs and DEXs Are Not Competitors. They Are Different Contracts. appeared first on BeInCrypto.

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Morgan Stanley’s bitcoin ETF opens today, giving BlackRock’s $55 billion IBIT fund its toughest rival yet

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Morgan Stanley's bitcoin ETF opens today, giving BlackRock’s $55 billion IBIT fund its toughest rival yet

BlackRock’s most successful exchange-traded fund (ETF) is facing its clearest challenge yet, as Morgan Stanley rolls out a cheaper rival with direct access to trillions in client capital.

Morgan Stanley’s ETF, trading under MSBT, began trading Tuesday with a 0.14% expense ratio, below the iShares Bitcoin Trust’s (IBIT) 0.25%. The difference is narrow but lands in a market where price is one of the few levers investors can pull.

Each spot bitcoin ETF holds bitcoin and tracks its price. That leaves cost, liquidity and access as the main points of difference. IBIT has led on scale and trading activity since launch, becoming the most liquid vehicle for both shares and options tied to bitcoin ETFs with roughly $55 billion in assets-under-management.

That liquidity gives IBIT an edge that may be hard to replicate.

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“The launch will impact things but it will be interesting to see if it can actually siphon assets from other funds,” said James Seyffart, ETF analyst at Bloomberg Intelligence. “IBIT is the most liquid ETF for trading and in the options market and it’s unlikely MSBT will ever compete with that. At least not anytime remotely soon.”

Still, Morgan Stanley’s entry changes the competitive balance.

The bank can tap its vast wealth management network, where advisors can shift client allocations with a single trade. In practice, that means new demand may be directed toward MSBT rather than existing funds like IBIT.

“Distribution is king in the ETF space, and Morgan Stanley has that in spades with its army of wealth managers,” said Nate Geraci, president of the ETF Store. “Combined with MSBT being the lowest-cost spot bitcoin ETF on the market, that’s a strong recipe for success.”

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Geraci added that MSBT, which uses undercuts IBIT by 11 basis points, a gap large enough to draw attention from both investors and BlackRock.

IBIT’s position reflects how the market has evolved. Early inflows favored large, trusted issuers with deep liquidity. Over time, as more trusted names have entered the market, fee sensitivity has grown.

Morgan Stanley’s launch may speed up that shift, even if IBIT retains its lead in trading volume.

The result is a more defined split in the market. IBIT offers depth and liquidity for active traders.

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Newer entrants like MSBT compete on cost and distribution. Morgan Stanley’s wealth management arm oversees trillions in client assets and has one of the largest adviser networks in the industry, giving the bank a steep advantage. As more capital moves through financial advisors rather than direct trading, that channel may carry increasing weight.

For now, IBIT remains the benchmark. But with fees falling and new entrants targeting its position, its grip on flows may face its first sustained test.

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South Korea Tightens Crypto Withdrawal Delay Exemptions

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South Korea Tightens Crypto Withdrawal Delay Exemptions

South Korea’s financial regulator said it will tighten the exception rules under crypto exchanges’ withdrawal-delay system after finding that scam-linked accounts granted exemptions accounted for most voice-phishing-related losses. 

The Financial Services Commission (FSC) said Wednesday that the strengthened framework, developed with the Financial Supervisory Service (FSS) and the Digital Asset eXchange Alliance (DAXA), will impose unified standards on when users can bypass withdrawal delays. 

The regulator said exchanges had been applying their own exception criteria with no clear minimum standard, creating loopholes that let bad actors quickly move funds if they meet easy requirements such as account age or trading history. 

From June to September 2025, accounts granted withdrawal-delay exemptions made up 59% of fraudulent accounts and 75.5% of related losses at crypto exchanges, the FSC said.

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The move follows a wider South Korean push to tighten crypto exchange controls after voice-phishing abuse and operational-control failures, including fresh reforms announced this week after Bithumb’s Bitcoin (BTC) payout error.

Transfer route and protection device for voice phishing damage through virtual assets, translated to English. Source: FSC

Unified rules aim to curb misuse of withdrawal-delay exemptions

The FSC said that under the new rules, exchanges must assess factors like trading frequency, account history and deposit and withdrawal amounts when determining whether a user qualifies for a withdrawal-delay exemption. 

The regulator said the change is expected to reduce the number of users eligible for exemptions sharply. The FSC said a simulation showed the share of users eligible for exemptions would fall to around 1% under the new rules, but did not provide a baseline for comparison.

Related: South Korean brokerage Korea Investment & Securities eyes Coinone stake: Report

The FSC said it will also strengthen oversight of users granted exemptions through periodic checks, including verification of the source of funds, and by building systems to monitor suspicious withdrawal activity. 

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The regulator added that they will continue reviewing the rules to prevent new circumvention methods and adjust as needed. 

The move adds to a broader push by South Korean regulators to tighten oversight of crypto exchanges following recent incidents. 

On Tuesday, the FSC ordered exchanges to reconcile internal ledgers with actual asset holdings every five minutes after an inspection linked to the Bithumb payout error found gaps in internal controls and risk management systems.

On Jan. 29, South Korea expanded crypto licensing scrutiny to cover exchanges and major shareholders. 

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Magazine: ‘Phantom Bitcoin’ checks, Drift hack linked to North Korea: Asia Express