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March CPI could be worst since 2024

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Arizona advances bill to hold Bitcoin and XRP in state reserve

The US inflation reading the market has been dreading arrives Friday morning when the Bureau of Labor Statistics releases the March Consumer Price Index at 8:30 AM ET, with economists widely forecasting it will be the hottest monthly inflation print since May 2022, driven almost entirely by the energy shock from the Iran war.

Summary

  • Barclays Senior US Economist Pooja Sriram forecasts March headline CPI at 0.9 percent month over month and 3.3 percent year over year, “led by a surge in gasoline prices”; BofA Securities economists project a 10.6 percent monthly jump in energy prices driving a 0.9 percent headline increase; Oxford Economics projects headline CPI above 3 percent in March and above 4 percent in April
  • The expected reading would mark a sharp reversal from the 2.4 percent annual inflation rate recorded in the first two months of 2026, and would be the first major inflation data to reflect the impact of the Iran war on consumer energy prices; Pantheon Economics says the US experienced the largest one-month jump in fuel costs since at least 1957
  • Core CPI, which strips out volatile food and energy, is forecast to rise 0.3 percent monthly and 2.7 percent year over year, with the Federal Reserve expected to hold interest rates at 3.50 to 3.75 percent at its April 29 meeting; CME FedWatch shows 98.4 percent of respondents pricing in no change

As Kiplinger reported, “How much and how severely depends on just how long the conflict continues to crimp key energy exports. Some degree of inflation is now inevitable.” That framing captures the central tension in Friday’s release: whether the data confirms a one-month spike that fades as oil stabilizes, or signals the opening print of a new inflation regime where the Iran war has durably repriced transportation, manufacturing, and utility costs across the economy.

Consumers have already paid approximately $8.4 billion in additional fuel costs in the month after the Iran war started, according to an estimate from the Joint Economic Committee’s Democratic minority. Gasoline prices have averaged over $4 per gallon nationally, with oil remaining close to $110 per barrel even after the temporary ceasefire announcement caused a brief drop.

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Since the post-2009 recovery, only five months have produced a monthly CPI reading of 0.9 percent or higher. Every one of them fell between October 2021 and June 2022, at the peak of the post-pandemic inflation surge. March 2026 is expected to join that short and painful list. The mechanism is straightforward: the Iran war disrupted oil flows through the Strait of Hormuz, the world’s most critical petroleum corridor, causing a supply shock that fed immediately into gasoline, diesel, and jet fuel prices. Energy costs then ripple into transportation, food distribution, and manufacturing, which is why Oxford Economics expects the headline rate to climb above 4 percent in April even after the temporary ceasefire.

What the Report Means for the Federal Reserve

The Fed had penciled in one interest rate cut for 2026 before the Iran war began. The war repricing of energy has caused many economists to remove that cut from their forecasts entirely. Austan Goolsbee, president of the Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, warned that rising prices could pressure household budgets and derail spending. Some Fed policymakers signaled in March meeting minutes that future rate hikes may need to be considered if inflation accelerates further. Mark Zandi, chief economist at Moody’s Analytics, told CBS News: “We’re going to be paying the price for this through much of the year.”

What to Watch in the Numbers When the Report Drops Friday

As crypto.news has reported, bitcoin and crypto markets have been closely tracking every inflation signal in 2026, with the war-driven energy shock adding a new layer of uncertainty on top of existing tariff and monetary policy pressures. As crypto.news has noted, the March CPI release is one of the most anticipated economic events of the quarter for crypto investors because a number above 3.5 percent would likely extend the Fed pause and suppress the rate-cut narrative that has historically supported risk asset rallies. The report drops at 8:30 AM ET Friday, April 10.

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What next as bitcoin (BTC) fails to break $73,000 for the third time since ceasefire

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Bitcoin slides to $66,600 as Trump threatens to hit Iran 'extremely hard'

Bitcoin pulled back to $71,843 on Friday after a third attempt to breach $73,000 was met with selling on Thursday, a level that has now rejected the price on every rally since the Iran conflict began in late February.

The retreat is modest. Bitcoin is up 7.9% on the week, its strongest weekly performance of the war so far, holding above the 50-day moving average which has turned upward for the first time since the conflict started. Ether held at $2,189, up 6.6% on the week. Solana’s SOL gained 5.1% to $83.09. XRP added 2.8% to $1.34. Dogecoin climbed 2.4% to $0.092. The entire top 10 is green on the weekly chart for the first time in over a month.

But $73,000 is seemingly a wall. The level has capped bitcoin three times since the ceasefire was announced on Tuesday — each attempt producing a rally that faded within hours. The pattern is identical to the pre-ceasefire range, just shifted higher. Instead of grinding between $65,000 and $73,000, bitcoin is now grinding between $70,000 and $73,000.

“We will need to wait for the price to rise above $75,000 before we can speak of the market entering an active bullish phase,” said Alex Kuptsikevich, FxPro’s chief market analyst, in a note to CoinDesk. He added that bitcoin remains above the 50-day moving average, reinforcing short-term bullish sentiment, but flagged the repeated rejection at $73,000 as the barrier that needs to break.

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Galaxy Digital CEO Mike Novogratz set the bar higher, saying the key conditions for bitcoin to resume its uptrend are consolidation above $74,000 followed by a break above $80,000. “Breaking through these levels could trigger a new wave of optimism and restore the uptrend,” he said.

The ceasefire that triggered Tuesday’s rally is already fraying. Iran accused the U.S. of breaching three clauses of the agreement.

The Strait of Hormuz remains only partially reopened with “technical limitations.” Oil rebounded from its 15% single-day crash to trade back above $97.

Ether’s setup is similarly range-bound. The token pulled back 4% from its Wednesday peak to $2,189, which Kuptsikevich described as market noise within a $2,000 to $2,400 consolidation zone.

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“A breakout beyond this calm consolidation zone would signal the start of a directional move,” he said.

Outside of majors, Algorand dropped 11.4%, Aptos fell 6.1%, and Polkadot lost 6.1%, marking an altcoin divergence that typically appears when traders are rotating rather than entering fresh capital.

The Fear and Greed Index climbed out of single digits for the first time in over a month, meanwhile.

If the ceasefire survives through the weekend and the Strait opens further, $73,000 gets its fourth test with momentum behind it. However, Tehran’s grievances escalate or Trump’s rhetoric shifts, the pullback toward $68,000 to $70,000 is the path of least resistance.

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XRP edges higher to $1.35 on breakout, what next for Ripple-linked token

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XRP edges higher to $1.35 on breakout, what next for Ripple-linked token

XRP is trying to stabilize after a sharp move higher, but the bigger question is whether this is real strength or just a short-term bounce. The breakout came on solid volume, yet the lack of follow-through and weak broader structure suggest buyers are still cautious.

News Background

  • XRP ETFs saw $3.32M in inflows, but the scale remains too small to meaningfully shift price direction given the token’s size.
  • The move continues to be driven more by technical positioning than fundamentals, with no clear catalyst behind the recovery.

Price Action Summary

  • XRP moved from $1.33 to $1.35, breaking above the $1.34 level on strong volume.
  • The initial push was sharp, but price quickly settled into a tight range just below $1.36 without extending higher.
  • Short-term volatility remains elevated, with quick dips being bought but rallies still struggling to hold.

Technical Analysis

  • The key signal is the quality of the breakout. Volume confirms participation, but the lack of continuation suggests this is not yet a strong trend shift.
  • XRP remains within a broader downtrend, and rallies are still capped below the $1.40 level.
  • Some indicators point to exhaustion rather than strength, with analysts flagging potential downside if momentum fades.
  • At the same time, tight consolidation near current levels shows buyers are at least attempting to build a base.

What traders should watch

  • $1.34 is now the immediate pivot. Holding above it keeps the short-term recovery intact.
  • $1.36-$1.40 remains the key resistance zone. A clean break is needed to shift momentum meaningfully.
  • On the downside, a move back below $1.32-$1.31 would signal the breakout has failed and reopen pressure toward $1.28.

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Coinbase Announces Upgrade for x402 Protocol Enabling Usage-Based Pricing

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Coinbase Announces Upgrade for x402 Protocol Enabling Usage-Based Pricing

Coinbase has announced an upgrade for the x402 protocol, enabling usage-based pricing for agentic AI compute requests, which replaces the former flat fee model.

In a post on X on Thursday, Coinbase Developer Platform announced the “Upto” scheme has gone live, adding it will help open up “variable-cost services” for agentic AI such as large language model inference, compute and data queries.

“Until now, x402 only supported exact, fixed-price payments. That works great for deterministic APIs. But it blocked an entire category of services where the cost depends on usage, such as token count, compute time, or query complexity,” Coinbase Developer Platform said.

“Upto is an EVM implementation, supporting all ERC20s, and CDP Facilitator supports fully gasless payments,” it added.

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The move comes amid growing support for the x402 protocol as a wide range of firms prepare for future agentic commerce adoption, which is expected to bring extreme levels of network demand and require frictionless payments and near-instant transactions to support agentic AI.

Source: Coinbase Developer Platform

Flat-fee problem gets a fix

The Upto scheme allows sellers to configure maximum prices, while buyers will be able to authorize prices up to a specific amount. 

On the server end, where costs fluctuate, the server will charge only for how much it actually takes to complete the task, meaning users won’t be overcharged and may even pay less than the specified maximum price.

Previously, simple and complex requests cost the same amount, resulting in some users either overpaying or underpaying for tasks done by AI agents. This upgrade will help users set prices they are willing to pay before a task instead of guessing how much they think the task will cost for an agent to complete.

Related: CIA to integrate AI ‘co-workers’ to process intelligence, catch spies

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Developed by Coinbase, the protocol’s ownership was handed over to the nonprofit Linux Foundation earlier this month, with big tech firms such as Google, Microsoft and Amazon Web Services having a stake in the protocol via the x402 Foundation.

Despite the hype surrounding x402, the network has seen declining adoption rates in 2026 after hitting peak levels in November, according to Dune Analytics data. Between Nov. 4 and Nov. 10, the protocol saw 13.7 million transactions, its biggest week on record.

However, it has been on a steep decline since then, with weekly transaction volume dropping below 1 million in early January and continuing to plunge further over the first quarter. As of the last week in March, x402 saw just 112,708 transactions.

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