Connect with us
DAPA Banner

Crypto World

Kalshi Dominates 89% of U.S. Prediction Markets Amid Federal-State Legal Clash

Published

on

Brian Armstrong's Bold Prediction: AI Agents Will Soon Dominate Global Financial

Key Takeaways

  • Bank of America data reveals Kalshi controls 89% of U.S. prediction market trading volume
  • Overall prediction market activity increased 4% weekly, though Polymarket experienced a 16% decline
  • Federal agencies filed lawsuits against Arizona, Connecticut, and Illinois on April 2, 2026 regarding state-level gambling regulation
  • A federal appeals court sided with Kalshi in New Jersey on April 6, 2026
  • The resolution of these federal-state disputes will shape the industry’s regulatory landscape

The U.S. prediction market sector continues expanding, yet a jurisdictional conflict between federal authorities and state governments is reshaping regulatory control over the industry.

Recent Bank of America analysis indicates aggregate weekly trading activity climbed 4% compared to the previous week. Kalshi experienced 6% growth during this timeframe. Polymarket recorded a 16% decrease in trading volume during the identical period.

Kalshi currently commands approximately 89% of tracked U.S. prediction market activity. Polymarket accounts for 7% while Crypto.com represents 4%, based on Bank of America’s calculations.

The disparity between platforms stems from their regulatory approaches. Kalshi maintains registration with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) and positions its offerings as federally supervised derivatives. Polymarket operates through blockchain technology and has traditionally functioned beyond U.S. regulatory frameworks.

State governments have mounted resistance. Nevada and Massachusetts secured preliminary injunctions targeting Kalshi. Arizona escalated matters in March 2026 by pursuing criminal charges against the platform — marking the first criminal prosecution ever directed at a CFTC-registered entity.

Advertisement

Federal Agencies Launch Legal Action Against Three States

On April 2, 2026, the CFTC and Department of Justice initiated three distinct federal lawsuits targeting Arizona, Connecticut, and Illinois. The legal actions directly name state governors and regulatory officials.

The CFTC characterized this action as “unprecedented” and justified it as essential for defending its exclusive authority over event contracts under the Commodity Exchange Act.

Connecticut distributed cease-and-desist notices regarding sports-focused contracts. Illinois followed with similar enforcement actions. Arizona advanced to criminal prosecution.

CFTC Chairman Michael Selig stated: “The CFTC will continue to safeguard its exclusive regulatory authority over these markets and defend market participants against overzealous state regulators.”

State authorities remain defiant. Connecticut Attorney General William Tong characterized the contracts as “plainly unlicensed illegal gambling.” An Illinois representative argued these firms expose citizens to products lacking “basic consumer protections.”

Advertisement

Federal Appeals Court Rules for Kalshi

On April 6, 2026, the U.S. Court of Appeals for the Third Circuit issued a 2-1 decision favoring Kalshi. The ruling prevented New Jersey gaming authorities from enforcing state gambling regulations on Kalshi’s operations.

The court determined that Kalshi’s event contracts qualify as “swaps” under the Commodity Exchange Act, establishing the CFTC’s exclusive regulatory authority. This represents the first federal appellate decision addressing this jurisdictional question.

Kalshi CEO Tarek Mansour described it as “a big win for the industry.”

Should federal regulators succeed in pending litigation, platforms such as Kalshi could function under unified national regulations. Conversely, defeats could fragment the industry into a state-specific regulatory structure resembling online sports wagering.

Binance revealed on April 10, 2026 that it integrated a prediction markets capability into Binance Wallet, demonstrating sustained engagement from prominent cryptocurrency platforms in this sector.

Advertisement

The CFTC maintains an active public feedback window through the end of April concerning an Advanced Notice of Proposed Rulemaking for prediction markets.

Source link

Advertisement
Continue Reading
Click to comment

You must be logged in to post a comment Login

Leave a Reply

Crypto World

World Liberty Moves Toward WLFI Unlock Vote After Complaints

Published

on

World Liberty Moves Toward WLFI Unlock Vote After Complaints

Decentralized finance (DeFi) platform World Liberty Financial said Friday it plans to put forward next week a governance proposal that would set a phased unlock schedule for WLFI tokens held by early retail purchasers.

The Trump family-linked DeFi platform said the proposal will be opened for community input before proceeding to a formal vote. According to the project, the vote will not cover a full, immediate unlock, but instead a structured, long-term vesting plan designed to release tokens in stages. 

WLFI tokens remain largely locked for early buyers, with transferability tied to governance-approved unlocks. Tokenomist data shows that about 24.67% of WLFI’s 100 billion token supply has been released, while roughly 75.33% remains locked or pending future unlock decisions.

The proposal could determine when early buyers can finally access liquidity in WLFI, whose use is largely limited to governance. It comes as some holders publicly push back against the prolonged lockups and threaten legal action.

Advertisement

The concerns add to earlier governance decisions around token restrictions. On March 16, WLFI token holders approved a proposal introducing a six-month lock-up rule for certain transfers, marking one of the first formal changes to the project’s transferability framework.

Allocations for WLFI tokens. Source: Tokenomist

Retail buyers challenge prolonged WLFI lockups

World Liberty’s early sale materials said WLFI tokens were non-transferable and could remain locked indefinitely, with any future unlock subject to a governance vote no earlier than 12 months after the token sale and with no guaranteed timeline.

That 12-month threshold has already passed, with WLFI’s public sale beginning around mid-October 2024, placing the current proposal roughly 18 months after the initial sale. The company raised at least $550 million from WLFI token sales across two funding rounds.

Some self-identified WLFI presale buyers have publicly complained that most of their holdings remain locked, even as parts of the broader token supply have become transferable. 

At least one self-identified buyer said they had filed legal notices and were pursuing claims in the United States and the Netherlands against World Liberty Financial and its backers. Cointelegraph could not independently verify that any lawsuit had been filed. 

Advertisement

Cointelegraph reached out to World Liberty Financial for comments, but had not received a response by publication. 

Related: WLFI proposes governance staking system and USD1 usage incentives

Onchain borrowing activity adds to holder concerns

One community member said in an X post that the project’s borrowing activity raised concerns among token holders, questioning how treasury funds were being used. Onchain data shows that World Liberty Financial’s treasury borrowed roughly $75 million in stablecoins from Dolomite using WLFI as collateral.

Advertisement

Magazine: Should users be allowed to bet on war and death in prediction markets?