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Federal Reserve chair Jay Powell suggested he was increasingly confident that the US central bank would pull off a soft landing and signalled that interest rates would fall “over time” towards a level that no longer restrains growth.
Powell struck a positive note in comments on Monday about the health of the world’s largest economy, which has weathered the worst inflation shock in decades and high interest rates without a painful rise in job losses.
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The Fed chair was speaking publicly for the first time since the central bank earlier this month began its first easing cycle in more than four years with a larger-than-usual half-point cut, leaving rates at 4.75-5 per cent.
“That decision reflects our growing confidence that, with an appropriate recalibration of our policy stance, strength in the labour market can be maintained in an environment of moderate economic growth and inflation moving sustainably down to our objective,” he said at an event at the National Association for Business Economics.
Powell did not comment on the size of any cut when officials next meet in November, one day after the US presidential election. Rather, he stressed that if the economy evolved as expected, “policy will move over time towards a more neutral stance” — a level that neither stimulates nor restrains economic activity — with decisions made “meeting by meeting”.
Now that inflation has retreated and the economic backdrop has “set the table for further disinflation”, Powell said the Fed’s focus would be on safeguarding the labour market, which is still “solid” despite demand cooling meaningfully.
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“Our goal all along has been to restore price stability without the kind of painful rise in unemployment that has frequently accompanied efforts to bring down high inflation,” Powell said on Monday.
Traders in federal funds futures markets have priced in the possibility that the central bank will again opt for a large rate reduction in roughly six weeks’ time. But a majority believe it will return to a quarter-point cadence in the future.
In an interview with the Financial Times on Friday, Alberto Musalem of the St Louis Fed endorsed the central bank reverting to cutting rates “gradually” given concerns that the economy could react “very vigorously” to looser financial conditions. A half-point reduction would however remain on the table if the labour market weakened more than expected — something his colleague Raphael Bostic of the Atlanta Fed backed on Monday.
According to the latest “dot plot” of Fed officials’ individual projections, most policymakers expected the benchmark rate to fall by another half a percentage point over the course of the two remaining meetings of the year. Almost half of the 19 officials thought the Fed should do less than that.
Policymakers also expected the federal funds rate to fall another percentage point in 2025, ending the year between 3.25 per cent and 3.5 per cent. By the end of 2026, it was estimated to fall just below 3 per cent.
YOUR trip to Paris or Amsterdam could be much cheaper next year – if you travel by train.
Train regulator the Office of Rail and Road (ORR) had said fares should be cut by 7.7 per cent from April 2025.
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Eurostar fares could fall by 7.7 per centCredit: Getty
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The move comes as Eurostar seat sales soar post-CovidCredit: Getty
The call comes after a huge demand in Eurostar seats since Covid restrictions lifted.
Feras Alshaker, ORR director for planning and performance, said the high speed train line was a ” vital connection between the UK and continental Europe“.
They added: “[It] makes a crucial contribution to the UK economy, supporting growth.
“The detailed scrutiny and challenge we’ve applied to HS1 Ltd’s plans should see the costs of operating on the line reduce significantly, giving savings for both international and domestic operators over the next five years, with benefits for passengers and freight users.”
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And HS1 Ltd chief strategy and regulation officer Mattias Bjornfors said they “welcomed” the five-year plan to reduce fares.
He added: “Our plan for 2025-2030 included several proposals to reduce charges for freight and transport operators which have been accepted.
The fare reduction would see Eurostar tickets around 7.7 per cent cheaper.
It would also affect Southeastern routes, being cut by 10.8 per cent which connects London to many of Kent’s seaside towns such as Margate and Folkestone.
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Freight services could be cut by as much as 66 per cent.
Currently, Brits can travel to Europe with Eurostar for as little as £39 each way.
Top 5 Picturesque Train Journeys in Europe
This includes route from London St Pancras to Paris, Lille, Brussels, Rotterdam and Amsterdam.
These fares are in short supply however, and often not at peak times or weekends.
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There are also calls for more Eurostar stops in the UK.
Previously stopping at Ashford International, this was paused during the Covid pandemic and is yet to return.
Despite petitions and calls from local MPs for it to return, experts have said it is unlikely to happen anytime soon.
And start-up Evolyn has revealed plans to launch train services between London to Paris.
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Sun Travel’s favourite train journeys in the world
Sun Travel’s journalists have taken their fare share of train journeys on their travels and here they share their most memorable rail experiences.
Davos to Geneva, Switzerland
“After a ski holiday in Davos, I took the scenic train back to Geneva Airport. The snow-covered mountains and tiny alpine villages that we passed were so beautiful that it felt like a moving picture was playing beyond the glass.” – Caroline McGuire
Tokyo to Kyoto by Shinkansen
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“Nothing quite beats the Shinkansen bullet train, one of the fastest in the world. It hardly feels like you’re whizzing along at speed until you look outside and see the trees a green blur. Make sure to book seat D or E too – as you’ll have the best view of Mount Fuji along the way.” Kara Godfrey
London to Paris by Eurostar
“Those who have never travelled on the Eurostar may wonder what’s so special about a seemingly ordinary train that takes you across the channel. You won’t have to waste a moment and can tick off all the top attractions from the Louvre to the Champs-Élysées which are both less than five kilometres from the Gare du Nord.” – Sophie Swietochowski
Glasgow to Fort William by Scotrail
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“From mountain landscapes and serene lochs to the wistful moors, I spent my three-hour journey from Glasgow to Fort William gazing out the window. Sit on the left-hand side of the train for the best views overlooking Loch Lomond.” – Hope Brotherton
Beijing to Ulaanbatar
“The Trans-Mongolian Express is truly a train journey like no other. It starts amid the chaos of central Beijing before the city’s high-rises give way to crumbling ancient villages and eventually the vast vacant plains of Mongolia, via the Gobi desert. The deep orange sunset seen in the middle of the desert is among the best I’ve witnessed anywhere.” – Ryan Gray
Roula Khalaf, Editor of the FT, selects her favourite stories in this weekly newsletter.
Billionaires (sometimes) do not let billionaires go bankrupt. For a price, at least.
For a year, some Wall Street vultures dreamt that EchoStar — the satellite TV and telecoms empire assembled by Charlie Ergen — would fall into Chapter 11.
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That would have handed control to its creditors, owning more than $20bn of EchoStar debt.
But on Monday, David Bonderman decided to play white knight. The private equity firm he co-founded, TPG Capital, said it would lead a rescue transaction that keeps Ergen’s EchoStar equity afloat.
TPG’s satellite TV provider, DirecTV, will acquire its arch-rival Dish Network from EchoStar. The official purchase price is $1, along with assuming billions in Dish’s currently distressed debt.
TPG, however, will not make those bondholders whole, conditioning the DirecTV/Dish merger on $11.7bn of bond debt taking a $1.6bn haircut. Those bondholders can decline if they like.
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But the bet by Ergen and TPG is that those creditors can live with a modest discount to avoid having to run a complicated business that is in decline. As it happens, the hand of those main bondholders had already been forced.
Nearly all holders of convertible bonds, who are owed around $5bn in principal due soon, agreed to swap their debt at a small discount in exchange for a better coupon, enhanced collateral and the chance to reinvest in EchoStar.
TPG’s bargain contains its own risks. It is providing $2.5bn in the form of debt to solve pending maturities at Dish. It also said on Monday that it would pay $7.6bn over the next several years to buy out AT&T from the 70 per cent of DirecTV still owned by its telecoms partner.
The combined company will have 18mn pay-TV subscribers, a deterioration of several million in the past decade. But private equity firms care more about cash flow than revenue growth.
The combined company retains almost $10bn of annual ebitda, according to researcher CreditSights, setting its likely enterprise value between $30bn and $40bn. TPG’s risk is largely mitigated by investing at a cheap valuation, and the cash it has and will continue to extract.
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Ergen will now concentrate on the EchoStar stub, which is a portfolio of spectrum and a play on building a new mobile phone network.
Its shares fell by more than a tenth on Wednesday, a personal loss for Ergen of a few hundred million dollars. But it could have been far worse, if not for the intervention of Bonderman & Co.
DESPITE it only being September, it was hard to not feel the magic of Christmas standing inside Hamleys’ Christmas Grotto.
I’d been invited down to get a sneak peek of all the toys the iconic children’s retailer expects to fly off the shelves this festive season, and walking into the showcase, I knew it would be magical.
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This singing Moana doll is expected to be a smash hit
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This Stitch plush makes noises and laughs when you shake it
With the holidays less than 100 days away, families may already be overwhelmed trying to figure out what the little ones in their life hope to find under the tree.
But Victoria Kay, head of buying and merchandising Hamleys, reckons toys influenced by children’s films are going to be a big hit this year.
This will probably not come as a surprise to parents.
And this Christmas appears to be no different, with a singing Moana doll poised to a fan favourite amongst kids.
Disney will release the sequel to the smash hit film, which follows the journey of a Polynesian princess who sets off on a quest to save her people, at the end of November.
The new Moana doll comes with her own necklace that plays a rendition of Moana’s Disney classic ‘How Far I’ll Go’ every time they press it.
It is recommended for children aged three and up and if you buy it at Hamleys it will set you back £29.99.
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If you are hunting for a bargain, Amazon is selling the same doll for £23.49, but you’ll have to factor in delivery costs.
On the same Disney theme, Hamleys also predicts a laughing Stich soft toy will be a success this Christmas.
The 11-inch-high interactive blue alien is activated by a simple shake which then prompts the character to giggle and wobble.
It comes as a new live-action Lilo and Stich is set to land in cinemas next year, over two decades on from the first movie.
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Hamleys is charging £24.99 for the plush, which is about four quid cheaper than Amazon’s asking price.
L.O.L Surprise Dolls are available to buy at Hamleys for £9.99
Money will still be tight for many families this Christmas, so I was happy to see that one of Hamleys top toys cost just under £10.
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L.O.L Surprise Mermaid Tots are the latest take on the ever-popular L.OL Dolls.
Children can make each of them a tail which changes colour when it is dipped in water.
If the kids in your life enjoy surprise or mystery boxes then they could enjoy this, as you don’t know what the doll will look like until you open the box.
Hamleys is charging £9.99 for the product, which is on par with John Lewis and Very who are also stocking the toy.
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The retailer is also selling a selection of large plush toys shaped like cupcakes or chips for £22.
If your children like Squishmallows, then this would be a big hit.
However, if you are looking for a bargain, Dunelm is also selling a selection of similar products for £10.
Keeping it classic
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LEGO Bumblebee for adults aged 18+
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This Hulk smash toy costs £16.99
Nothing screams Christmas like stepping on a piece of Lego, so I was pleased to see this classic find a spot on the list.
Hamleys reckons a £80 LEGO Transformer Bumblebee will also be a hit this year.
The item is considered a collectable item for lovers of the sci-fi series and is only suitable for those aged 18.
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This is because it could be a challenge to stick together.
A Play-Doh Hulk Smash and Squish is also expected to be in high demand.
It comes with the heroic green bendy action figure, 360-degree pressing tool and three moulds to create tanks, trucks and other shapes.
This will cost £16.99 at Hamleys, which is the same price as Smyths Toys.
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You can check out the other toys Hamleys expects to be a smash below.
Numberblocks Five Musical Superstar Stage
Cost: £49.95
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This is an educational toy for pre-school children
An interactive musical playset allows children to join FIVE, the lead singer in the band to singalong to songs and sound effects.
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Hamleys appears to be the only UK retailer currently stocking the toy.
The Bulldozer Stunt Bounce Car
Costs £45
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This electric car costs £45
This is also only available to buy at Hamleys and is suitable for children aged eight and up.
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The remote control vehicle has lights, three-gear acceleration and a 360-degree rotation and 180 -degree flip modes.
Paw Patrol Rescue Wheels Deluxe Vehicle
Costs: £44.99
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Paw Patrol Rescue Wheels Dulexe is available to buy for £44.99
This toy truck comes with one of Paw Patrol’s most loved characters, Chase.
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The toy features flashing lights and sounds, as well as a projectile launcher.
If you are on the hunt for a bargain, The Entertainer is currently selling the same product for £17.99.
The retailer has over 160 stores across the UK and is also available online.
Drop Trivia Game
Costs £24.99
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Drop Trivia costs £24.99 at Hamleys
This game is suitable for children aged six and above and asks players to answer questions quickly.
It is currently out of stock at other toy retailers such as Smyths and The Entertainer.
The Terror Fried Gross Bucket
Costs £29.99
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The figures are from the TerrorFried franchise
This is a set of nine collectable figures from the TerrorFried franchise.
Other retailers such as Smyths, Very and Selfridges are also stocking this product for the same price as Hamleys.
Hamleys Arias Allessandra Fur White Bonnet Baby Doll
Costs £120
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This pricey doll is supposed to feel like a real baby
This pricey doll has a soft-touch body and limbs and a lifelike weight so it feels like you are holding a real baby.
She comes with a romper and fleece, a dummy on a wooden chain, a family book and Certificate of Authenticity.
The product is only available to buy at Hamleys.
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How to bag a bargain
SUN Savers Editor Lana Clements explains how to find a cut-price item and bag a bargain…
Sign up to loyalty schemes of the brands that you regularly shop with.
Big names regularly offer discounts or special lower prices for members, among other perks.
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Sales are when you can pick up a real steal.
Retailers usually have periodic promotions that tie into payday at the end of the month or Bank Holiday weekends, so keep a lookout and shop when these deals are on.
Sign up to mailing lists and you’ll also be first to know of special offers. It can be worth following retailers on social media too.
When buying online, always do a search for money off codes or vouchers that you can use vouchercodes.co.uk and myvouchercodes.co.uk are just two sites that round up promotions by retailer.
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Scanner apps are useful to have on your phone. Trolley.co.uk app has a scanner that you can use to compare prices on branded items when out shopping.
Bargain hunters can also use B&M’s scanner in the app to find discounts in-store before staff have marked them out.
And always check if you can get cashback before paying which in effect means you’ll get some of your money back or a discount on the item.
A 10% domestic gas and electricity price rise has taken effect as debate continues over the withdrawal of additional support.
A household in England, Wales and Scotland using a typical amount of gas and electricity will pay £1,717 a year from now, a rise in the annual bill of £149.
It comes as winter approaches without extra cost-of-living payments for those on low incomes, and as winter fuel payments are withdrawn for about 10 million pensioners.
Energy firms say they are helping struggling and vulnerable customers.
Price cap changes
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Energy prices for about 27 million homes in England, Wales and Scotland is governed by a price cap, calculated by the energy regulator Ofgem. It is set every three months and affects the price paid for each unit of gas and electricity.
Under the cap, prices have fallen twice this year – in April and July – but now, at the start of October, they have increased by about £12 a month for a typical user.
A final bill depends on the amount of energy used, but to calculate the effect on an annual bill, billpayers can add 10% to their current bill.
Standing charges have risen by one penny a day for gas and also for electricity, but the regulator is considering reforming the system.
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The price cap is illustrated by Ofgem in terms of an annual bill for a household using a typical amount of gas and electricity.
That annual bill is lower than last winter, but charities say many people will struggle to cover the cost.
Some households have built up debt to their suppliers. Ofgem said nearly £3.7bn is owed collectively.
Steve Vaid, chief executive of the Money Advice Trust, the charity that runs National Debtline, said: “This only highlights what we have been saying for some time – without urgent support for households facing unaffordable arrears, energy debt will only rise further.”
Some households will have less support because the final cost-of-living payment was made to eight million people on means-tested benefits in February.
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For pensioners, the previously universal winter fuel payment, worth up to £300, will now only be paid to those on low incomes who receive certain benefits.
The payment is a devolved matter in Scotland and Northern Ireland and the Scottish government confirmed it will also no longer provide winter fuel payments to all pensioners.
While some previous recipients say they do not need it, charities and many MPs are concerned about pensioners still on a relatively small income who will miss out.
Forecasters have given some comfort with a change to their prediction for energy bills when the next cap comes into force in January.
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Consultancy Cornwall Insight, which analyses the sector, has predicted a 1% fall in January to an annual bill of £1,697 for a household using a typical amount of energy.
Energy companies have said a voluntary initiative they have run in the last four years has identified vulnerable customers.
The sector’s trade body, Energy UK, said extra support totalling £500m had been given to those in need.
In specific terms, the latest change in prices means:
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Gas prices are capped at 6.24p per kilowatt hour (kWh), and electricity at 24.5p per kWh – up from 5.48p and 22.36p respectively. A typical household uses 2,700 kWh of electricity a year, and 11,500 kWh of gas
Households on prepayment meters are paying slightly less than those on direct debit, with a typical bill of £1,669
Those who pay their bills every three months by cash or cheque are paying more, with a typical bill of £1,829
Standing charges – a fixed daily charge covering the costs of connecting to a supply – have gone up to 61p a day for electricity and 32p a day for gas, compared with 60p and 31p respectively, although they vary by region
How some pensioners can claim support
Hundreds of thousands of low-income pensioner households eligible for pension credit currently fail to claim it.
The government says it is worth an average of £3,900 a year and claiming it can qualify people for other financial support such as winter fuel payments.
The legislation — set to be published next month — will strengthen union powers.
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It will make changes to zero-hours contracts, probationary periods and guarantee employees rights from day one as well as default flexible working.
THE SUN SAYS… JUST DESSERTS
WHY did it take so long for politicians to ensure that tips go in full to the low-paid waiting staff who deserve them?
And that restaurants and hair salons can no longer snaffle credit card gratuities? That’s in the past, as of today . . . a great day for workers and for fairness.
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Some places may sneakily raise prices to recoup lost income.
Top tip for them — don’t. Customers would soon vote with their feet.
Inside Keir Starmer’s new Labour Cabinet – from firebrand Angela Rayner to secret ‘Tory assassin’
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The stories that matter on money and politics in the race for the White House
More than 100 people have been killed and as many as 600 people are missing after Hurricane Helene ripped through the south-eastern US, causing widespread destruction and flooding, the White House said.
The rising death toll emerged as the Biden administration and local officials struggled to deliver support to the most affected states, stretching from Florida to Georgia and North Carolina, where tens of thousands of survivors have been stranded without electricity or running water.
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The devastation hit with little more than a month until the US presidential election that pits Kamala Harris, the Democratic vice-president, against Donald Trump, the Republican nominee and former president.
Trump rushed to southern Georgia on Monday to speak about the hurricane’s impact, while Harris returned to Washington DC, from a trip to the west coast to receive a briefing from federal emergency response officials.
Speaking from the White House, President Joe Biden vowed to deliver all the help that the government could to the communities hit by the storm, in co-ordination with local governors. He also said he expected to request additional disaster relief funding from Congress.
“We’re not leaving until the job is done,” Biden said. “We will be there as long as it takes.”
Biden said he expected to visit the region later this week, but only after it was clear that the arrival of the president and his entourage would not disrupt the operations of the first responders.
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US officials said many communities hit by the storm were isolated so the extent of the damage remained unknown.
Speaking in Georgia on Monday, Trump blamed Biden and Harris for the struggles of the storm victims, saying the response had been slow.
“The governor is doing a good job,” Trump said, referring to Georgia Republican governor Brian Kemp. “But he’s having a hard time getting the president on the phone. They’re being very non-responsive.”
But Kemp had no complaints about the administration’s reaction. “The president just called me yesterday afternoon . . . and he just said ‘Hey, what do you need’,” he told reporters. “[Biden] offered that if there’s other things we need, just to call him directly, which I appreciate.”
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Biden did not estimate how much additional funding he would request from Congress for the response to the storm, but lawmakers would have to be called back from the pre-election recess to vote on the aid.
Conservative Republicans have at times objected to federal funding for disaster relief, or insisted the money be offset by spending cuts elsewhere, which could complicate its passage.
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