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Will XRP Plunge Below $1 in February? ChatGPT Reassesses After Ripple’s Crash

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Will XRP Plunge Below $1 in February? ChatGPT Reassesses After Ripple’s Crash


The last time we asked ChatGPT this question, it was rather dismissive. Now, its answers were significantly less optimistic.

The price moves from precisely a month ago could hardly have anticipated what happened in the following 30 days. XRP, for example, skyrocketed by 30% at the time to $2.40 amid growing ETF inflows.

The subsequent rejection and correction, though, were brutal. After several consecutive leg downs, the culmination, at least for now, transpired earlier today when it plunged below $1.40 and now struggles at $1.35. As such, we decided to revisit a painful question for ChatGPT.

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Below $1 Now?

CryptoPotato first asked this question over the weekend when the landscape around Ripple and its native token was not as grim. XRP traded at around $1.60 after its most recent crash, but it seemed as if it had bottomed. Perhaps that’s why most AIs agreed that the chances for a drop beneath $1.00 in February were quite slim at the time.

However, that perceived bottom gave in during the current trading week, as mentioned above. Consequently, we asked ChatGPT whether its view on the matter will change now.

The AI’s short answer was yes, as the probability of such a drop is “meaningfully higher now than it was when XRP was at $1.60-$1.70.” At the time, the token still traded above major structural support, and the broader market hadn’t rolled over so decisively. There was no confirmed breakdown of higher-timeframe levels, and the sentiment wasn’t entirely bearish.

A lot changed in the following several days, though. Momentum has accelerated to the downside as XRP sold off aggressively, “slicing through intermediate supports and failing to hold rebounds.” Additionally, February has just started, and there’s too much time for such a drop to occur if the overall conditions do not improve rapidly.

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Dip or Breakdown?

Given the current circumstances, ChatGPT believes that the probability of XRP remaining above $1.00 in February is around 40%. It expects that there will be some consolidation and choppy trading after such heightened volatility and declines.

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However, it also noted that there’s a 35-40% chance of a liquidity sweep to just under $1.00 in the next few weeks. It would be prompted by a fast sell-off, resulting in a panic wick, before a sharp rebound. This scenario, it added now, has become “very real.”

It still dismissed the possibility of a full-on breakdown below $1.00, saying the percentages are around 15-20% now. Although this scenario appears least likely for ChatGPT, it still acknowledged that it had gone from negligible (over the weekend) to quite possible (now).

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Crypto World

Binance price eyes $615 fibonacci support as oversold conditions build

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Binance’s price is approaching the $615 support zone as oversold conditions intensify, placing it at a critical technical inflection point.

Summary

  • $615 is a major confluence support combining the 0.618 Fibonacci, VWAP, and prior value area high
  • Rejection at $932 confirms bearish structure, keeping pressure on price in the short term
  • Oversold conditions raise bounce probability, but confirmation is needed for reversal

Binance (BNB) price has entered a sharp corrective phase following its recent swing high, with bearish momentum accelerating across multiple timeframes. After failing to sustain upside continuation, price has rotated lower in an impulsive fashion, signaling a clear shift in short- to medium-term market structure.

As BNB continues to unwind recent gains, attention is now turning toward a key high-timeframe support region near $615, where technical confluence suggests this level may play a decisive role in determining the next directional move.

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Binance price key technical points

  • $615 marks a major confluence support zone, aligning with the 0.618 Fibonacci retracement and VWAP support
  • High-timeframe resistance at $932 remains intact, reinforcing the broader corrective structure
  • Oversold conditions increase the probability of a relief bounce, provided structural support holds
Binance price eyes $615 fibonacci support as oversold conditions build - 1
BNBUSDT (1W) Chart, Source: TradingView

The current corrective move began after Binance Coin established a new high at a time-frame resistance near $932.

This level acted as a decisive rejection point, where bullish momentum stalled and sellers regained control.

The failure to reclaim acceptance above this resistance confirmed a structural low and initiated the current impulsive move to the downside.

Since that rejection, price action has remained consistently bearish, with lower highs and expanding downside candles reflecting aggressive selling pressure. This behavior suggests that the move lower is not merely a shallow pullback, but a broader corrective rotation within the prevailing market cycle.

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$615 support zone comes into focus

As price continues to decline, the $615 region has emerged as the most important technical level in the near term.

This zone represents a high-confluence area where multiple technical factors align, including the 0.618 Fibonacci retracement of the broader move and VWAP-based support.

Additionally, this region sits above the previous range value area high, strengthening its relevance as a structural support level.

Historically, when price revisits such confluence zones after an impulsive move, the market often pauses to reassess value. If buyers step in to defend this area, it increases the likelihood that prices will stabilize and form a base for a corrective rebound.

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Oversold conditions signal potential exhaustion

Momentum indicators are now beginning to reflect oversold conditions following the extensive selling seen over recent days and weeks. While bearish trends can persist longer than expected, oversold readings often signal that downside momentum may be nearing exhaustion, especially when price approaches major support.

Importantly, oversold conditions alone do not confirm a reversal. However, when combined with strong structural support, they increase the probability of at least a short-term relief bounce. Any such bounce would likely be corrective in nature unless accompanied by a clear reclaim of higher resistance levels.

What to expect in the coming price action

From a technical, price action, and market structure perspective, the $615 region represents a critical make-or-break level for Binance Coin. A successful defense of this support could allow BNB to establish a higher low and trigger a rotation back toward higher price targets. Conversely, failure to hold this zone would expose the market to deeper corrective levels and extend the bearish structure.

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Until confirmation emerges, traders should closely monitor volume behavior and price reaction around support. A strong bullish response would signal improving demand, while continued weakness would reinforce downside risk. For now, all eyes remain on $615 as the market approaches a pivotal moment in Binance Coin’s corrective cycle.

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$1M Lightning Payment Tests Bitcoin’s Institutional Rails

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$1M Lightning Payment Tests Bitcoin’s Institutional Rails

Institutional trading and lending desk Secure Digital Markets (SDM) said it sent a $1 million payment to cryptocurrency exchange Kraken over the Lightning Network on Jan. 28.

SDM claimed in a Thursday statement shared with Cointelegraph that it is the largest publicly reported Lightning transaction to date and a proof‑of‑concept for seven‑figure transfers between regulated counterparties.

The payment cleared in 0.43 seconds and was routed via Voltage’s managed Lightning infrastructure, which provides node management, pre‑provisioned liquidity, and uptime guarantees aimed at exchanges and trading desks. 

The previously publicized “record” single payment milestone was about 1.24 Bitcoin (BTC), roughly $140,000 at the time, highlighting the rarity of six‑figure Lightning payments, let alone a clean, seven‑figure transfer in one shot.

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$1 million in a single Lightning transaction. Source: SDM

Voltage CEO Graham Krizek called the transaction an “important moment for Lightning and for institutional Bitcoin payments,” saying that a $1 million Lightning transfer highlighted the “its ability to meet enterprise requirements.”

Related: Lightning Network could nab 5% of stablecoin flows by 2028: Voltage CEO

Lightning metrics remain small, but growing

The transfer comes against a backdrop of mixed Lightning metrics. Capacity on public Lightning channels fell from over 5,400 BTC in late 2023 to about 4,200 BTC by mid 2025, before rebounding to a new all-time high capacity of over 5,600 BTC by December. 

That’s still a small pool of capital relative to Bitcoin’s market value, and most documented usage has skewed toward smaller payments.

Bitfinex, for example, had long capped Lightning deposits at 0.04 BTC before recently lifting limits to 0.5 BTC per payment and 2 BTC per channel.

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In a statement shared with Cointelegraph, Paolo Ardoino, CEO of Tether and chief technology officer at Bitfinex, called the Lightning Network a “powerful solution for all Bitcoin users” that began as a retail payments experiment

He said that Bitfinex had seen Lightning handle higher volumes with predictable settlement, lower costs and reduced onchain congestion, “all of which matter for institutional use cases.”

Fidelity and Blockstream see institutional potential

Fidelity Digital Assets, which published a 2025 report on Lightning using Voltage data, argued that the Lightning Network not only enhanced Bitcoin’s utility but also bolstered its investment case.

Related: Tether leads $8M funding for Lightning startup focused on stablecoins

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Fidelity noted that average Lightning capacity had increased by 384% since 2020, adding that the network presented a “transformative opportunity for both new and existing financial institutions.”

Blockstream, a Bitcoin‑focused infrastructure company, pushed a similar narrative in its Q4 2025 quarterly update.

The company highlighted Core Lightning releases focused on latency reduction and Lightning Service Provider (LSP) support, and pitched its Greenlight platform as a way for apps, exchanges and services to offer trust‑minimized Lightning functionality with minimal infrastructure burden, with an explicit roadmap for enterprise‑focused Lightning deployments.

Big questions: Would Bitcoin survive a 10-year power outage?

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