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Kalshi expands surveillance, enforcement efforts ahead of Super Bowl 60

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Kalshi expands surveillance, enforcement efforts ahead of Super Bowl 60

The Kalshi logo arranged on a laptop in New York, US, on Monday, Feb. 10, 2025.

Gabby Jones | Bloomberg | Getty Images

Kalshi on Thursday announced new initiatives to expand its surveillance and enforcement frameworks as skepticism builds around the booming predictions market space.

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The announcement comes days before Super Bowl 60, which has already drawn more than $160 million in prediction market trading volume, according to Kalshi. The platform and its peers allow users to buy event contracts for outcomes in politics, pop culture, financial markets and sports.

Prediction trades on predetermined outcomes — like, for example, on which companies will air Super Bowl ads on Sunday — have prompted questions of possible insider trading. New York Attorney General Letitia James on Monday issued a warning about what she called “unregulated prediction markets.”

“Being federally regulated means that Kalshi bans market manipulation, insider trading, has limits on the types of markets it lists, runs Know-Your-Customer (KYC) and Anti-Money Laundering (AML) checks on every user before they can trade, and publicly reports all trades to the CFTC daily,” the company said in a release. “Kalshi also spent years building custom prediction market trade surveillance and enforcement systems that are similar to those used in the stock market.

Kalshi said Thursday it has taken further steps, forming an independent surveillance advisory committee, which will provide quarterly analysis to the company’s outside counsel and publish statistics on investigations into suspicious activity on its platform. The company also announced surveillance partnerships with Solidus Labs and the Director of the Wharton Forensic Analytics Lab.

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The prediction market will also now work with the former Under Secretary of the Treasury for Terrorism and Financial Intelligence to advise Kalshi on “market integrity, trading surveillance and financial compliance matters.”

Kalshi lawyer Robert DeNault has also been appointed to the role of Head of Enforcement, where the company said he will work with the advisory committee to identify insider trading and market manipulation.

Lastly, Kalshi said it has created hubs on its website to provide resources for consumers on responsible trading and market integrity.

In a post on X, CEO Tarek Mansour said if the company finds any wrongdoing, the penalties include fines and referrals to the Commodity Futures Trading Commission — which regulates event contracts in the U.S. — and the Department of Justice for prosecution.

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“In the past year, we ran over 200 investigations and froze relevant accounts,” Mansour wrote. “Of these, over a dozen have become active cases and several have been referred to law enforcement.”

Mansour added that Kalshi has based its market surveillance system on those used by the New York Stock Exchange and the Nasdaq, flagging suspicious behavior by running trades through pattern recognition models.

“All industries have bad actors and no system is perfect, Kalshi’s included,” Mansour wrote. “But we are committed to improving daily. Lots of work ahead!”

Disclosure: CNBC has a commercial relationship with Kalshi.

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Tether backs UAE tokenization firm KAIO in $8M funding round

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Tether backs UAE tokenization firm KAIO in $8M funding round

Abu Dhabi-regulated tokenization firm KAIO said Monday it had raised $8 million in a strategic funding round backed by Tether and several other crypto and institutional investors, as it builds infrastructure to bring traditional funds onto blockchain rails.

The round brings KAIO’s total funding to $19 million. New investors include Systemic Ventures, while Further Ventures and Laser Digital joined again alongside earlier backers such as Brevan Howard Digital.

KAIO said it develops infrastructure that allows asset managers to distribute funds onchain. It packages products from firms like BlackRock, Brevan Howard and Hamilton Lane, then makes them accessible through blockchain-based systems.

With the investment, KAIO plans to expand into other products such as credit, structured investments and exchange-traded funds. The firm said it plans to launch onchain fund with Mubadala Capital, the Emirati private equity firm with $385 billion in assets under management.

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By creating tokens of institutional funds, the firm said its goal is to lower investor barriers to entry. KAIO targets minimum investments starting at $100 for eligible users, far below the typical thresholds for institutional funds.

Tether’s involvement ties the model to stablecoin flows. USDT is the most popular stablecoin, boasting a $185 billion supply, and is often used to move money across borders, especially in emerging markets. KAIO aims to channel that liquidity into regulated investment products.

“KAIO’s unique position unlocks new pathways for capital formation and investment by bringing institutional-grade assets onchain and making them more broadly accessible, helping expand participation in global financial markets,” Tether CEO Paolo Ardoino said in a statement.

KAIO said its platform embeds compliance into its system and supports regulated distribution frameworks, including those in Abu Dhabi, the Cayman Islands and Singapore.

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The company said it manages about $100 million in assets and has processed more than $500 million in transactions.

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RAVE Token Faces Another 50% Crash Amid Price Manipulation Claims

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RAVE Token Faces Another 50% Crash Amid Price Manipulation Claims

RavenDAO’s RAVE token lost over 98% of its value over the weekend, and the hourly chart now warns of another massive drop in the coming days.

Key takeaways:

RAVE chart hints at 50%-plus drop next

On the hourly chart, RAVE continues to trade inside a descending channel, with lower highs and lower lows forming between two downward-sloping trend lines.

As of Monday, the spot price was retreating after testing the channel’s upper boundary, a sign that sellers remain active on rallies. If that rejection holds, RAVE could slide toward the channel’s lower trend line in the near term.

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RAVE/USD hourly chart. TradingView

A Fibonacci extension drawn from the latest bounce at the lower boundary to the recent pullback from the upper boundary points to the 1.618 extension as the next bearish objective.

That level comes in near $0.30, implying a further 55%–58% decline from current prices in April or by May.

Notably, the same setup correctly anticipated Sunday’s drop toward $0.49, reinforcing the channel’s relevance.

RAVE/USD daily chart. Source: TradingView

Meanwhile, the 20-hour exponential moving average at $0.96 and the 1.0 Fib line at $0.94 continue to cap upside attempts. Unless the bulls reclaim these levels decisively, the broader bias remains tilted to the downside.

Market manipulation claims add to RAVE risks

RAVE’s technical weakness is unfolding alongside mounting allegations of market manipulation, with market watchers comparing it to the LUNA and WAVES pump-and-dumps from 2022.

Onchain investigator ZachXBT described the token’s explosive rally and subsequent collapse as a “blatant” pump-and-dump, allegedly orchestrated across major exchanges including Binance, Bitget and Gate.io.

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Source: ZachXBT

He flagged roughly 23 million RAVE tokens (worth around $23 million) moving from a team-linked multisig wallet to Bitget deposit addresses shortly before a 40% flash crash, and has since maintained a $25,000 bounty for whistleblowers.

RaveDAO has denied any involvement.

Related: FOMO, lax rules are fueling the crypto crime supercycle

Still, ZachXBT has doubled down on his claims, arguing that over 90% of the token’s supply may be controlled by insiders, raising concerns about liquidity concentration and price control.

Source: X

A few days ago, RaveDAO revealed plans to sell portions of unlocked tokens to fund operations, marketing and hiring.

The team said it is considering price- or performance-based lock mechanisms to better align incentives, adding that “building a movement requires resources.”

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