Connect with us
DAPA Banner

Crypto World

14-Month Low Sparks Fears of a Deeper Fall Below $60K

Published

on

PlanB Survey


Is BTC headed for a crash to $25,000?

Bitcoin (BTC) has experienced a steep decline over the past weeks, mirroring the broader crypto market crash.

According to some analysts and experts, the situation could worsen for bulls in the short term, with the price at risk of falling below $60,000.

Advertisement

Fasten Your Belts

Just recently, the leading cryptocurrency tumbled below $70,000 for the first time since November 2024. As of press time, it trades at around $69,300, down 21% over the past week alone.

The renowned analyst Ali Martinez suggested that the bears might be just stepping in. He reminded that since 2015, every time BTC has lost the 100-week simple moving average (SMA), it has failed to reclaim it in time and continued toward the 200-week SMA. According to his chart, the price could drop to as low as $57,600. Prior to that, Martinez claimed that the next key support levels for BTC after the drop under $77,086 are $60,176 and $47,824.

The trader, using the X handle Hardy, also recently made a pessimistic prediction. They envisioned a massive decline in the coming months, with the bottom set at roughly $30,000.

Meanwhile, PlanB (the anonymous creator of the Stock-to-Flow (S2F) model) believes several scenarios are possible, including a collapse to $25,000 and a retreat to $50,000- $60,000. The analyst took it to X to ask the followers for their take on the matter. Nearly half of the participants think a plunge to $50K-$60K is the most plausible option, while only 15% see the valuation nosediving to $25K.

Advertisement
PlanB SurveyPlanB Survey
PlanB Survey, Source: X

Recent investor behavior supports the bearish thesis. According to data from CryptoQuant, the amount of BTC held on exchanges has been rising over the past few weeks. This suggests that many market participants have moved their holdings from self-custody to centralized platforms, typically interpreted as a pre-sale step.

You may also like:

BTC Exchange Reserves
BTC Exchange Reserves, Source: CryptoQuant

Is It Really Over?

While BTC’s current condition may appear weak, several indicators suggest a potential rebound ahead. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) measures the speed and magnitude of recent price changes.

It ranges from 0 to 100, and anything below 30 means that the asset is oversold and due for a potential resurgence. On the contrary, ratios above 70 are considered bearish territory. As of this writing, the RSI stands at roughly 19.

BTC RSIBTC RSI
BTC RSI, Source: CryptoWaves
SPECIAL OFFER (Exclusive)

SECRET PARTNERSHIP BONUS for CryptoPotato readers: Use this link to register and unlock $1,500 in exclusive BingX Exchange rewards (limited time offer).

Source link

Continue Reading
Click to comment

You must be logged in to post a comment Login

Leave a Reply

Crypto World

Current BTC Price Action Shows Dramatic Underperformance: Analyst

Published

on

Bitcoin Price, Bitcoin Analysis, Halving, Bitcoin Halving

The current Bitcoin (BTC) market cycle is “dramatically” weaker than the three previous cycles, according to Alex Thorn, the head of firmwide research at investment firm Galaxy.

Thorn compared price action since the April 2024 Bitcoin halving to cycles triggered in 2012, 2016 and 2020; the current cycle shows significantly dampened volatility and lower upside. The all-time high above $125,000 on Oct. 5, 2025 was only 97% above the 2024 halving price around $63,000.

BTC’s price increased by about 9,294% during the 2012 halving cycle, reaching a high of about $1,163, and climbed by about 2,950% during the 2016 halving cycle, reaching a high of about $19,891. The 2020 halving saw a price increase of about 761%.

Bitcoin Price, Bitcoin Analysis, Halving, Bitcoin Halving
A comparison of Bitcoin’s price action in previous halving cycles. Source: Alex Thorn

“Cycle four is dramatically underperforming prior cycles,” Thorn said in an X post, asking, “Is this the new normal, or is it the new normal until it isn’t?”

The decreasing volatility in each successive BTC halving cycle suggests that traditional market dynamics are changing and that BTC’s price may start to be influenced more by other factors, rather than the halving or the four-year cycle market theory.

Advertisement

The 30-day Bitcoin Volatility Index, which spiked to 9.64% on April 2, 2020, has not been above 3.11% in the current cycle, a reading last tipped on Aug. 24, 2024. At last look, the latest 30-day estimate for that volatility gauge is 1.75%, according to Bitbo data.

Related: Bitcoin bull run ‘still too early’ to call as demand lags exiting capital: Analyst

Critics say current cycle performance ignores the premature all-time high before 2024’s halving

BTC reached what was then the all-time high above the $70,000 level in March 2024 — one month before the April 2024 halving.

The approval of spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) in the United States in January 2024 was the primary catalyst for the price pump.

Advertisement
Bitcoin Price, Bitcoin Analysis, Halving, Bitcoin Halving
The price of BTC hit an all-time high before the April 2024 halving. Source: TradingView

This historic anomaly of BTC hitting a new all-time high before the halving skewed the current cycle’s price performance, critics of Thorn’s analysis said.

Bitcoin drawdowns have also become less severe, as volatility has declined, according to Fidelity Digital Assets.

Previous Bitcoin bear markets have seen declines between 80% and 90%, according to Zack Wainwright, a Fidelity Digital Assets research analyst.

However, Bitcoin’s crash to $60,000 from the all-time high above $125,000 represents a decline just north of 50%, Fidelity’s analysis noted.

In March, Jan van Eck, CEO of asset management company VanEck, said that BTC is close to bottoming out and that he expects the price to begin gradually rising again in 2026. 

Advertisement

At last look, the biggest crypto was trading at about $74,703, up almost 5% in the last seven days, according to TradingView data.

Magazine: Bitcoin will not hit $1M by 2030, says veteran trader Peter Brandt