The two quarterbacks in Super Bowl LX were both taken third overall in their respective drafts. Both were expected to be franchise saviors from Day 1, yet they could not have taken more different paths to Santa Clara, California, for the final game of the 2025 NFL season.
The Jets selected Sam Darnold No. 3 overall in the 2018 NFL Draft, behind Baker Mayfield and Saquon Barkley. Six years later, the Patriots pinned their future on Drake Maye after Caleb Williams and Jayden Daniels went off the board.
“Fit matters” is a recurring theme in the NFL and a phrase I repeat often during the pre-draft process, because we can talk all we want about this or that prospect being “can’t-miss” or “best in the class,” but the reality is Patrick Mahomes isn’t the version we see today if he hadn’t landed in Kansas City. Baker Mayfield didn’t find his footing until his fourth NFL team. It all came together for Daniel Jones in Year 7 with his third team (at least before the Achilles injury).
Sam Darnold proved this season that 2024 wasn’t a fluke when he led the Vikings to 14 wins in his seventh season. He won 14 more regular-season games in 2025, this time with the Seahawks, who will face Maye and the Patriots in the Super Bowl.
Maye’s path has been less circuitous. He played well as a rookie on a bad Patriots team and, in Year 2, is a legit MVP candidate, in part because the organization nailed the coach (Mike Vrabel), the offensive coordinator (Josh McDaniels) and, of course, the franchise QB.
With the Super Bowl just days away, it’s as good a time as any to redraft the top 10 picks of the 2018 and 2024 classes — the two years Darnold and Maye were selected in the top three.
And just like our 2021 redraft from last October, there are some ground rules.
- Assume the entire 2018 and 2024 NFL Draft classes are made up of free agents, and we’re holding a redraft based on their real-life NFL careers to date.
- Assume all eligible players from the 2018 and 2024 draft classes are healthy as of the redraft, but prior injury history should be a consideration.
- The original team cannot redraft the player they selected in 2018 or 2024.
- Assume the same draft order from the first round of the 2018 and 2024 NFL Draft.
OK, let’s get to it — first up, the 2018 redraft:
1. Josh Allen, QB, Wyoming
Original pick: Baker Mayfield, QB, Oklahoma
I mentioned above that Patrick Mahomes wouldn’t have had the same career to date had he not gone to the Chiefs. Maybe we could say the same thing about Josh Allen going to the Browns here, but … you can’t not take him No. 1 overall.
The 2024 MVP singlehandedly dragged the Bills to the playoffs in 2025, and he remains one of the best players in the league.
2. Lamar Jackson, QB, Louisville
Original pick: Saquon Barkley, RB, Penn State
The Giants took Daniel Jones No. 6 overall in 2019, and despite signing a second contract, the two sides parted ways during the 2024 season.
Lamar Jackson, like Allen, is a former league MVP. The Giants have had a losing record in seven of the past eight seasons and haven’t had more than nine wins since 2016; that wouldn’t have been the case if Jackson had been the pick in 2018.
3. Fred Warner, LB, BYU
Original pick: Sam Darnold, QB, USC
I mean … Darnold sorta feels like the right pick here but 1) our made-up rules prohibit it and 2) WE KNOW HOW THIS PLAYS OUT. Instead, the Jets take Warner, one of the best defensive players in the league.
Originally the 82nd overall pick of the 49ers, Warner’s biggest concern coming out of college was whether he could hold up at linebacker because he played all over the field at BYU.
The four-time All-Pro quickly proved he was a first-round talent — and in this redraft, he becomes the No. 3 overall pick on a 2018 Jets team that started Darron Lee and Avery Williamson at linebacker.
4. Minkah Fitzpatrick, S, Alabama
Original pick: Denzel Ward, CB, Ohio State
The Browns got this second first-round pick from the Texans after Houston traded up in the 2017 draft for … yep, Deshaun Watson.
Part of me is tempted to draft Sam Darnold here and flip him for even more picks to a QB-needy team, but that’s beyond the scope of what we’re trying to accomplish. Saquon Barkley would be in consideration, too, but the Browns grabbed Nick Chubb in the second round, and he’s one of the best players in recent Cleveland history.
Instead, I’m taking Minkah Fitzpatrick, who can play anywhere in the secondary and would upgrade a unit that, in 2018, included T.J. Carrie, Damarious Randall and Jabrill Peppers.
5. Sam Darnold, QB, USC
Original pick: Bradley Chubb, EDGE, NC State
The Broncos were heading into the 2018 season two years removed from Peyton Manning, and their QBs were Trevor Siemian and, in 2018, Case Keenum. The future included starters like Joe Flacco, Drew Lock, Teddy Bridgewater and Russell Wilson before George Paton and Sean Payton drafted Bo Nix in 2024.
This is all a long-winded way of saying that then-coach Vance Joseph and then-GM John Elway are taking Sam Darnold.
6. Baker Mayfield, QB, Oklahoma
Original pick: Quenton Nelson, OT, Notre Dame
With the benefit of hindsight, Mayfield is a no-brainer here since 2018 was Andrew Luck’s final NFL season (and he missed all of 2017 with a shoulder injury).
In the six seasons since Luck retired, the Colts have had six different QBs start the majority of their games: Jacoby Brissett, Philip Rivers, Carson Wentz, Matt Ryan, Gardner Minshew, Anthony Richardson and Daniel Jones.
Mayfield would’ve stabilized the position from the moment he stepped on the field.
7. Saquon Barkley, RB, Penn State
Original pick: Josh Allen, QB, Wyoming
This is worst-case scenario for the Bills, who, in real life, ended up with the best QB in the class and here, in the redraft, are left empty-handed with four QBs off the board.
Buffalo also has the No. 16 pick in this draft (it originally took linebacker Tremaine Edmunds), but we’re going to give whoever ends up under center some help in the form of Saquon Barkley, who will pair with 30-year-old LeSean McCoy.
8. Quenton Nelson, OL, Notre Dame
Original pick: Roquan Smith, LB, Georgia
Smith was a great pick, but since we can’t redraft him here, I did think about Nick Chubb. But the Bears had the solid tandem of Tarik Cohen and Jordan Howard, both in their early 20s in 2018.
Quenton Nelson isn’t a bad consolation prize. I know the Bears took James Daniels in Round 2, and he started at left guard as a rookie in Chicago, but he’s also played on the right side in Chicago and Pittsburgh.
9. Roquan Smith, LB, Georgia
Original pick: Mike McGlinchey, OT, Notre Dame
This is a sprint-to-turn-the-card-in situation, especially since the 49ers took Fred Warner in real life and he’s long gone in this redraft.
10. Nick Chubb, RB, Georgia
Original pick: Josh Rosen, QB, UCLA
I gave serious consideration to tackles Orlando Brown Jr. and Mike McGlinchey here, but Chubb fills a big need, too.
David Johnson rushed for 940 yards in 2018 but averaged just 3.6 yards per carry. He played just one more year in Arizona, and in 2019, Kenyon Drake led the team in rushing in just eight games while Johnson was third behind rookie Kyler Murray.
Chubb was a workhorse in Cleveland before a serious knee injury in 2023, and in Arizona, he would’ve been a huge asset in the backfield alongside Murray.
1. Drake Maye, QB, UNC
Original pick: Caleb Williams, QB, USC
I’d have no issue running it back with Caleb here, but the made-up, arbitrary rules of the redraft forbid it.
So MVP candidate Drake Maye it is — and it’s an easy decision given how well he played under trying circumstances in 2024 and how he made such a huge leap in Year 2 under Josh McDaniels. You have to imagine he’d have similar success playing for Ben Johnson.
2. Caleb Williams, QB, USC
Original pick: Jayden Daniels, QB, LSU
Duh. Williams made big strides in 2025, and his familiarity with former Commanders offensive coordinator Kliff Kingsbury makes this an easy choice.
And I know we’re discounting injuries for our purposes here, but in the real world, Jayden Daniels missed a lot of the 2025 season because he couldn’t stay healthy. That hasn’t been a problem for Williams through his first two seasons.
3. Jayden Daniels, QB, LSU
Original pick: Drake Maye, QB, North Carolina
Again, this selection doesn’t require a lot of thought. And it’s not hard to envision a healthy Daniels replicating a lot of what we saw from Maye this season.
Coming out of LSU, Daniels was an elite deep-ball passer, something Maye has excelled at in 2025. Both are top-flight athletes, with the biggest difference being weekly availability due to staying healthy.
4. Jared Verse, EDGE, Florida State
Original pick: Marvin Harrison Jr., WR, Ohio State
The Cardinals used their second first-round pick on defensive end Darius Robinson, who has struggled to stay healthy, but that didn’t stop us from taking Jared Verse because a) he’s been healthy, b) he’s been incredibly disruptive and c) you can never have enough top-end pass rushers.
5. Malik Nabers, WR, LSU
Original pick: Joe Alt, OT, Notre Dame
Alt was a home run. He battled injuries in 2025, and I gave some consideration to taking JC Latham here because he’s been solid for the Titans, and he played right tackle in college. I also thought about Quinyon Mitchell but eventually landed on Malik Nabers.
I know the Chargers used a first-round pick on Quentin Johnston in 2023 … but they also used a high second-rounder on Ladd McConkey in 2024. Nabers is a legit No. 1, especially in a world where Justin Herbert is his QB.
6. Joe Alt, OT, Notre Dame
Original pick: Malik Nabers, WR, LSU
A lot of great options here — Alt, Quinyon Mitchell, Cooper DeJean (if you want more of a CB/S hybrid), even Brock Bowers. But Alt at right tackle, along with a healthy Andrew Thomas at left tackle, and maybe Brian Daboll doesn’t lose his job midway through last season.
7. Brock Bowers, TE, Georgia
Original pick: JC Latham, OT, Alabama
The Titans had needs along the offensive line, for sure, but their receiving room in 2024 included Calvin Ridley, Tyler Boyd and Nick Westbrook-Ikhine, with Chig Okonkwo, Josh Whyle and Nick Vannett in the tight end room. Put another way: Will Levis could have benefited from Bowers being on the field.
8. Quinyon Mitchell, CB, Toledo
Original pick: Michael Penix Jr., QB, Washington
Do you roll the dice on Bo Nix here? Maybe … but he’s a great example of the importance of fit, and he and Sean Payton have been a near-perfect marriage in Denver. I’m not sure that would’ve been replicable elsewhere.
Instead, we’re going with Quinyon Mitchell here, pairing him with A.J. Terrell for what could immediately give the Falcons two of the best cover cornerbacks in the league.
9. JC Latham, OT, Alabama
Original pick: Rome Odunze, WR, Washington
Man, I’m tempted to take Marvin Harrison Jr. here, but Odunze has outplayed him. If I’m going with a receiver based on production, Brian Thomas Jr. or Ladd McConkey would have to be in the conversation.
Instead, though, let’s continue to beef up the offensive line. Darnell Wright is one of the best right tackles in football, and JC Latham — who played on the right side in college — has proven he can play left tackle in the NFL, which solves an issue still facing the Bears.
Plus, assuming their 2025 draft still includes Colston Loveland and Luther Burden III, swapping Odunze for Latham feels even more palatable.
10. Bo Nix, QB, Oregon
Original pick: J.J. McCarthy, QB, Michigan
I love the idea of Brian Thomas Jr., Ladd McConkey or Marvin Harrison Jr. paired with Justin Jefferson and Jordan Addison, but they can’t throw the ball to themselves. (Unless we’re living in the same universe where the Vikes re-sign Sam Darnold or roll with Aaron Rodgers in 2025.)
Through two seasons, J.J. McCarthy hasn’t played like the No. 10 pick, and you can assign blame wherever you see fit. But I think Kevin O’Connell, QB whisperer, would be able to get more out of Bo Nix, similar to the production we’ve seen from the former Oregon QB in Denver.
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