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Nomura survey shows rising institutional crypto adoption driven by regulation and diversification

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Nomura pushes back on crypto retreat concerns as it tightens risk controls

Institutional investors are warming to digital assets, with improving sentiment and broader use cases emerging as key drivers of adoption, according to a new survey from Tokyo-based bank Nomura and its crypto unit Laser Digital.

The study, based on responses from more than 500 investment professionals in Japan, found that 31% of respondents now hold a positive outlook on crypto over the next year, up from 25% in 2024. Meanwhile, negative sentiment has declined, pointing to a gradual shift in perception as the asset class matures.

A central theme is diversification. Some 65% of respondents said they view crypto as a portfolio diversifier, while 79% of those considering exposure plan to invest within three years. Most expect relatively modest allocations — typically between 2% and 5% — suggesting institutions are still in the early stages of adoption.

That shift is being supported by a changing regulatory and policy backdrop. In Japan, policymakers have spent the past year refining crypto frameworks, including discussions around classification, taxation and investor protections. Globally, clearer rules in major markets — alongside the approval and expansion of crypto investment products such as exchange-traded funds (ETFs) and tokenized assets — have reduced some of the uncertainty that previously kept institutions on the sidelines.

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As a result, interest is expanding beyond simple price exposure. More than 60% of respondents expressed interest in staking, lending, derivatives and tokenized assets, reflecting growing demand for yield-generating strategies and more sophisticated portfolio construction.

Stablecoins are also gaining traction, with 63% of respondents identifying potential use cases ranging from treasury management to cross-border payments and investment in tokenized securities.

Still, barriers remain. Concerns around volatility, counterparty risk and the lack of established valuation frameworks continue to weigh on adoption. Regulatory uncertainty, while improving, has not fully disappeared.

Even so, the survey suggests the conversation is shifting. Rather than debating whether to invest in crypto, institutions are increasingly focused on how to do so — a sign that digital assets are moving closer to becoming a standard component of institutional portfolios.

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Crypto World

Current BTC Price Action Shows Dramatic Underperformance: Analyst

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Bitcoin Price, Bitcoin Analysis, Halving, Bitcoin Halving

The current Bitcoin (BTC) market cycle is “dramatically” weaker than the three previous cycles, according to Alex Thorn, the head of firmwide research at investment firm Galaxy.

Thorn compared price action since the April 2024 Bitcoin halving to cycles triggered in 2012, 2016 and 2020; the current cycle shows significantly dampened volatility and lower upside. The all-time high above $125,000 on Oct. 5, 2025 was only 97% above the 2024 halving price around $63,000.

BTC’s price increased by about 9,294% during the 2012 halving cycle, reaching a high of about $1,163, and climbed by about 2,950% during the 2016 halving cycle, reaching a high of about $19,891. The 2020 halving saw a price increase of about 761%.

Bitcoin Price, Bitcoin Analysis, Halving, Bitcoin Halving
A comparison of Bitcoin’s price action in previous halving cycles. Source: Alex Thorn

“Cycle four is dramatically underperforming prior cycles,” Thorn said in an X post, asking, “Is this the new normal, or is it the new normal until it isn’t?”

The decreasing volatility in each successive BTC halving cycle suggests that traditional market dynamics are changing and that BTC’s price may start to be influenced more by other factors, rather than the halving or the four-year cycle market theory.

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The 30-day Bitcoin Volatility Index, which spiked to 9.64% on April 2, 2020, has not been above 3.11% in the current cycle, a reading last tipped on Aug. 24, 2024. At last look, the latest 30-day estimate for that volatility gauge is 1.75%, according to Bitbo data.

Related: Bitcoin bull run ‘still too early’ to call as demand lags exiting capital: Analyst

Critics say current cycle performance ignores the premature all-time high before 2024’s halving

BTC reached what was then the all-time high above the $70,000 level in March 2024 — one month before the April 2024 halving.

The approval of spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) in the United States in January 2024 was the primary catalyst for the price pump.

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Bitcoin Price, Bitcoin Analysis, Halving, Bitcoin Halving
The price of BTC hit an all-time high before the April 2024 halving. Source: TradingView

This historic anomaly of BTC hitting a new all-time high before the halving skewed the current cycle’s price performance, critics of Thorn’s analysis said.

Bitcoin drawdowns have also become less severe, as volatility has declined, according to Fidelity Digital Assets.

Previous Bitcoin bear markets have seen declines between 80% and 90%, according to Zack Wainwright, a Fidelity Digital Assets research analyst.

However, Bitcoin’s crash to $60,000 from the all-time high above $125,000 represents a decline just north of 50%, Fidelity’s analysis noted.

In March, Jan van Eck, CEO of asset management company VanEck, said that BTC is close to bottoming out and that he expects the price to begin gradually rising again in 2026. 

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At last look, the biggest crypto was trading at about $74,703, up almost 5% in the last seven days, according to TradingView data.

Magazine: Bitcoin will not hit $1M by 2030, says veteran trader Peter Brandt