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Crypto Week Ahead

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Fidelity Investments strategist sees resilient markets despite geopolitical turbulence

Crypto heads into the new week with its Friday rally on shakier ground.

The announced reopening of the Strait of Hormuz sent oil lower and pushed risk assets higher, including bitcoin and the wider crypto market. The opening reversed on Saturday, with Iran firing at ships attempting to pass and the U.S. seizing an Iranian-flagged tanker on Sunday.

With the ceasefire set to expire by mid-week, traders will be watching whether the risk-on rotation can survive a renewed energy shock.

The technical level to watch is clear. Luke Nolan, senior ETH research associate at CoinShares, told CoinDesk the follow-through hinges on bitcoin holding its ETF cost basis near $74,000.

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“With Hormuz reopening, oil is off and equities have caught a bid back to ATHs, pulling crypto higher with it,” Nolan said. “Follow-through now hinges on BTC decisively holding above its ETF cost basis (~$74k), which would confirm the risk-on rotation already visible in flows. ETF flows have turned positive the last three sessions, and a pickup in that pace would be supportive of the move higher.”

A decisive hold above $74,000 into the ceasefire deadline, paired with a fourth straight session of positive ETF inflows, would validate the rotation thesis. A break below would bring volatility back into the sector.

What to Watch

(All times ET)

  • Crypto
    • April 30: Comment period on the CFTC’s Advanced Notice of Proposed Rulemaking on prediction markets closes.
  • Macro
    • April 20, 7:30 a.m.: Canada Consumer Price Index YoY for March (Prev. 1.8%); Core Rate (Prev. 2.3%)
    • April 21, 1:30 p.m.: Fed Gov. Christopher J. Waller speech on”Modernizing Reserve Bank Operations” at Brookings Institution, Washington, D.C.
    • April 22, 1:00 a.m.: UK Consumer Price Inflation YoY for March (Prev. 3.0%); Core rate (Prev. 3.2%)
    • April 22, 7:30 p.m.: Japan S&P Global Services PMI Flash for April (Prev. 53); Manufacturing PMI (Prev. 51.6)
    • April 23, 7:30 a.m.: Canada Producer Price Index YoY for MArch (Prev. 5.4%); MoM (Prev. 0.4%)
    • April 23,7:30 a.m.: U.S. Initial Jobless Claims for week ending April 18 (Prev. 207K)
    • April 23, 8:45 a.m.: U.S. S&P Global Flash U.S. Manufacturing PMI for April (Prev. 52.3); Services PMI (Prev. 49.8)
    • April 23, 3:30 p.m.: U.S. Fed Balance Sheet for period ending April 22 (Prev. $6.71T)
    • April 23, 6:30 p.m.: Japan Consumer Price Index YoY for March (Prev. 1.3%); Core CPI (Prev. 1.6%)
    • April 24, 3:00 a.m.: Germany Ifo Business Climate for April (Prev. 86.4)
    • April 24, 9 a.m.: U.S. Michigan Consumer Sentiment Final for April est. 47.6 (Prev. 53.3)
  • Earnings (Estimates based on FactSet data where available)
    • April 22: Tesla (TSLA), pre-market, $0.3
    • April 22: CME Group (CME), pre-market, $3.29
    • April 23: Nasdaq (NDAQ), pre-market, $0.93

Token Events

  • Governance Votes & Calls
    • SafeDAO is voting to allocate 5 million SAFE tokens to fund a six-month staking rewards program and interface development for Safenet Beta. Voting ends April 20.
    • Unlock DAO is voting on a payment plan to compensate members for their contributions to the collaboration platform throughout March and April. Voting ends April 20.
    • RootstockCollective DAO is voting on a 20,000 USDRIF grant to fund a security audit for TYKORA Prize Vaults, a no-loss savings protocol. Voting ends April 20.
    • ENS DAO is voting to update its DNSSEC implementation by repointing algorithm 7 to a previously patched contract, adding proper padding validation to correct an omission from a prior security update. Voting ends April 21.
    • Decentraland DAO is voting to overhaul its transparency infrastructure by establishing named ownership for all record-keeping systems, publishing strict maintenance standards, and creating a single accessible portal for the community to locate data. Voting ends April 22.
    • Telcoin Platform Council DAO is voting to allocate 50 million TEL to hire a strategic telecom advisor to drive GSMA adoption. Voting ends April 22.
    • Aavegotchi DAO is voting to appoint nine multi-sig signers for 2026-2027, maintain a 5-of-9 security threshold, set their quarterly compensation at $1,000 in GHST and establish a succession plan. Voting ends April 22.
    • Lightchain AI DAO is voting to explore adding an optional Moonpay fiat on-ramp to its AI chat, focusing on feasibility and risks without committing any funds or approving implementation yet. Voting ends April 23.
    • Gitcoin DAO is voting to claw back remaining unclaimed fees from the discontinued public goods network (PGN). Voting ends April 24.
    • Parallel DAO is voting to begin sunsetting its V2 EUR stablecoin by halting most new issuance and imposing a punitive 50% borrow rate to encourage users to repay their existing debt. Voting ends April 24.
  • Unlocks
    • April 20: LayerZero (ZRO) to unlock 5.35% of its circulating supply worth $48.33 million.
    • April 22: Undeads Games (UDS) to unlock 13.47% of its circulating supply worth $37.09 million.
    • April 23: Toncoin (TON) to unlock 1.47% of its circulating supply worth $49.75 million.
    • April 25: Humanity Protocol (H) to unlock 4.02% of its circulating supply worth around $11.88 million.
    • April 25: Avalanche (AVAX) to unlock 0.39% of its circulating supply worth $15.6 million.
    • April 26: Plasma (XPL) to unlock 3.73% of its circulating supply worth $10.10 million.
  • Token Launches
    • April 21: OpenGradient (OPG) token generation event occurs.
    • April 21: USDAI’s CHIP token to launch.
    • April 22: Wingbits (WINGS) token generation event occurs.

Conferences

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Crypto World

Bitget brings pre-IPO tokens to masses starting with SpaceX shares on Solana

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Musk’s SpaceX holds $603 million in bitcoin despite $5 billion loss stemming from xAI

Crypto exchange Bitget rolled out a new platform offering tokenized exposure to private companies, starting with an asset linked to SpaceX, as firms push to bring early-stage investing onto blockchain rails.

The platform, called IPO Prime, allows users to subscribe to tokens that track the economic performance of companies before they go public. Its first listing, preSPAX, is tied to Elon Musk’s space and artificial intelligence firm and is issued through Republic, an investment platform specializing in private markets, with tokens minted on the Solana blockchain.

Trading began after a short subscription window, giving users near-immediate liquidity. That marks a break from traditional pre-IPO investing, where stakes in private firms are often locked up for years with limited options to exit.

Instead of fixed allocations, users commit stablecoins into a pool and receive tokens based on total demand. Once distributed, those tokens can be traded on a spot market, allowing investors to adjust positions as expectations around a future listing shift.

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Tokenization has gained traction across traditional finance, from bonds to money market funds to equities. Extending the model to pre-IPO markets could widen access to a segment long dominated by venture capital and private equity, while testing how far crypto infrastructure can reshape capital formation.

The pre-IPO tokens do not represent equity ownership. They are derivatives structured to mirror financial outcomes tied to a company’s valuation after a public debut.

SpaceX is preparing for one of the most widely expected stock market debuts this year, after the firm reportedly confidentially filed for an IPO.

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Gunman Posing as Courier Targets Crypto Investor in France

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Cryptocurrencies, France, Security, Crimes, Self Custody

A man posing as a delivery driver allegedly tried to extort a crypto investor at gunpoint in a suburb of Montpellier, in what local media describe as the first reported crypto-motivated home invasion in France’s Hérault region. 

According to French outlet Actu.fr, the suspect gained access to the family home in Saint-Jean-de-Védas on April 11, pulled out a handgun and forced the parents and their children into a room before the father overpowered him during a struggle in which a shot was fired. 

No one was injured, and investigators from the Montpellier research section of the Gendarmerie later identified and arrested a 25-year-old suspect, who has since been charged and remanded in custody while police examine whether he acted alone.

The case comes amid a surge in so-called “wrench attacks,” in which criminals use threats or violence to force crypto holders to hand over funds or seed phrases, bypassing digital safeguards. France has emerged as one of the countries worst hit by these assaults, with at least 41 crypto-linked kidnappings and home invasions so far this year. 

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France emerges as wrench attack epicenter

France’s wrench attack incidents amount to roughly one every 2.5 days, after such attacks jumped 75% in 2025 to 72 global cases in a single year and millions of dollars in confirmed losses, with France recording the highest number for a single country. 

Related: Crypto execs ramp up security as wrench attacks increase

French tech outlet Generation-NT reported on Tuesday that, beyond victims’ social media footprints, police and cybersecurity specialists increasingly suspect some gangs are compiling target lists from leaked customer data, giving them information on who holds significant crypto and where they live. 

Those concerns have been sharpened by recent leaks at crypto companies. In January, hardware wallet manufacturer Ledger said a breach at its payment partner Global‑e had exposed names, contact details and order information for some hardware wallet buyers, effectively creating a new, high-quality list of confirmed crypto users tied to physical addresses.

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Cryptocurrencies, France, Security, Crimes, Self Custody
Total wrench attacks per country. Source: Gart.io

Kidnappings span fake raids and ransom plots

Recent French cases have ranged from fake police raids to ransom kidnappings. In February, police arrested six suspects over the abduction of a magistrate and her mother in a plot to extort crypto from the magistrate’s partner, a digital asset entrepreneur. Another investigation in March detailed assailants posing as officers who forced a French couple to transfer close to $1 million in Bitcoin (BTC) under threat of violence.

French officials say crypto crime is shifting from code-based exploits to physical coercion. At Paris Blockchain Week, French minister Jean-Didier Berger said the government had launched a prevention platform for crypto holders and was working with the Interior Ministry on wider measures in response to the wave of kidnappings and home invasions tied to digital assets.

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