The crypto market mood has shifted from caution to cautious optimism as Bitcoin extended a rally that pushed it to the cusp of $80,000. A broad gauge of market sentiment — the Alternative.me Crypto Fear & Greed Index — climbed 14 points to 46, its highest reading in more than three months, signaling a shift away from deep fear even as traders breathe a sigh of relief after a turbulent period.

Bitcoin’s price action helped anchor the move. The leading token surged about 5.9% over roughly a 20-hour window to approach $79,400, before easing back to around $77,900. The bounce arrives amid a backdrop of mixed signals: on one hand, regulatory clarity and institutional participation have gained traction, while on the other, retail engagement remains uneven compared with prior cycles.

Key takeaways

• Crypto Fear & Greed Index rebounds to 46, the highest since January 18 and the strongest one-day rise in over three months, suggesting a shift from fear to guarded optimism.
• Bitcoin briefly neared $80,000 on a sustained intraday rally, then cooled, trading around the high-$70,000s range as of the latest data.
• The rally appears to be driven by derivatives demand, with analysts noting perpetual futures momentum outpacing spot buying in the near term.
• On-chain behavior shows a continued shift toward longer-holdings, with more than 300,000 BTC moving into long-term wallets in the past month, while shorter-term holders have been trimming positions.
• Market fundamentals show ongoing institutional interest amid a crypto-friendly regulatory backdrop, but retail participation remains a partial, slower-moving factor this cycle.

Perps-led momentum and the question of what comes next

One of the standout observations during the latest price move comes from CryptoQuant, which attributed the strength in Bitcoin’s rally to demand within the perpetual futures market. In a post on X, CryptoQuant’s head of research noted that the rally was “completely driven by demand” in perpetuals, rather than spot accumulation. The caveat, however, is that spot demand—though not collapsing—has been contracting gradually, raising the specter of a pullback if traders start taking profits or if the demand impulse from the futures market wanes.

The dynamic underscores a broader theme of the current cycle: risk managers and traders need to monitor whether the perps-led rally can sustain itself in the absence of robust spot buying. If the forward-looking appetite slows, a revert to more traditional price discovery could emerge, particularly as macro and regulatory cues continue to imprint price behavior on crypto markets.

On-chain shifts: liquidity flows and holders

On-chain activity added another layer to the narrative. CryptoQuant highlighted a notable shift in Bitcoin ownership: over 300,000 BTC have moved into long-term holder wallets over the last 30 days, while shorter-term holders have been trimming. The report framed the flow as a sign that “Bitcoin supply is moving into stronger hands.” One notable detail cited was that a single strategy—referred to in the note as Strategy—has accumulated about 53,000 BTC in the same period, contributing to the long-hold trend.

These moves align with a converging narrative of accumulation from entities perceived as patient capital. The implication for investors is nuanced: while short-term volatility may persist, the flow into longer-duration wallets can signal a stabilization of supply dynamics, potentially supporting more durable price levels if the trend continues alongside steady demand from institutions and prudent holders.

What the macro backdrop suggests for traders and builders

The mood shift comes even as geopolitical and regulatory tensions linger in the background. The price rally has occurred despite ongoing uncertainties in the Middle East and broader geopolitical frictions that can influence risk appetite. In parallel, the policy and regulatory environment in the United States continues to evolve, with a construct that remains crypto-friendly relative to the past several years. Coverage of ongoing regulatory developments, including institutional products and market infrastructure, has framed a foundation for continued institutional interest while testing the appetite of retail participants.

In this context, market watchers have noted a divergence: institutional adoption on Wall Street has progressed, with products such as regulated crypto derivatives and ETFs attracting capital. Morgan Stanley’s Bitcoin ETF inflows, reported in coverage surrounding institutional streams, point to a persistent, if measured, engagement layer. Yet retail demand, a traditional engine of multi-year cycles, has yet to reassert itself with the same velocity seen in prior upswings. This dichotomy invites a closer look at how much momentum the market can sustain without a broader retail revival.

What to watch next

Looking ahead, traders will be watching the balance between futures-driven momentum and spot demand more than any single price level. If spot buying accelerates and long-term holders continue to accumulate, it could reinforce a constructive backdrop for Bitcoin and the broader market. Conversely, a decline in futures momentum or a return of profit-taking could trigger a pullback, particularly if macro risk sentiment worsens or if regulatory signals shift toward a more cautious stance.

Meanwhile, the interaction between on-chain behavior and derivatives activity will remain a key lens for assessing the sustainability of the current rally. Investors and builders should monitor long-term holder accumulation trends, the pace of spot inflows, and the evolving regulatory narrative in the coming weeks to gauge whether this rally represents a temporary lift or a structural shift in Bitcoin’s market structure.

As the market digests this latest swing in sentiment, readers should stay tuned to updates on institutional product flows, central-bank signals, and any shifts in retail participation that could illuminate the next leg of Bitcoin’s price journey.

Key Takeaways

• Aave witnessed a TVL collapse from approximately $48.5B to $30.7B after the April 18 KelpDAO rsETH bridge security breach
• Bad debt accumulated on the platform ranges between $196M and $280M due to the exploit
• AAVE token trades near $93, reflecting a 7% weekly decline
• Exchange token reserves jumped to 2.39M, indicating potential selling momentum
• Competitor SparkLend absorbed approximately $1.3B in capital as users fled Aave

The leading DeFi lending protocol Aave experienced a staggering $15 billion reduction in total value locked within just four days following a critical security incident tied to KelpDAO that undermined user confidence throughout the decentralized finance ecosystem.

The security breach exploited a vulnerability within KelpDAO’s rsETH bridging infrastructure. The malicious actor leveraged this weakness to create fraudulent collateral tokens, subsequently borrowing legitimate ETH from Aave’s liquidity pools before withdrawing the funds. The resulting bad debt burden facing the protocol is currently estimated at $196 million to $280 million.

Prior to the April 18 security incident, Aave maintained approximately $48.5 billion in aggregate deposits. Within four days, by April 22, that amount had contracted sharply to roughly $30.7 billion. Prominent crypto intelligence account Wu Blockchain highlighted on X that total outflows exceeded $16.2 billion, erasing more than a third of the platform’s deposit base.

Morpho protocol similarly experienced capital flight, with TVL declining from $11.7 billion down to $10.2 billion during the identical timeframe.

SparkLend Emerges as Capital Destination

The exodus from Aave didn’t entirely exit the DeFi sector. SparkLend’s total value locked climbed to $3.2 billion, absorbing roughly $1.3 billion in fresh deposits over the same period. Blockchain analytics indicate users repositioned funds toward platforms perceived as carrying reduced risk exposure.

The AAVE token was changing hands around $93.45 during the analysis period, showing a modest 1.06% gain over 24 hours. Nevertheless, the asset remains down 7.09% across the previous week and approximately 11% throughout the past month.

Technical indicators on the four-hour chart show the MACD histogram turning positive with signs of a potential bullish crossover forming. However, the RSI indicator hovers around 46, positioned just beneath the neutral 50 threshold.

Blockchain Metrics Indicate Distribution Activity

Exchange-held reserves of AAVE tokens surged to nearly 2.39 million units. Historical patterns show that substantial token transfers to centralized exchanges typically precede selling activity.

Active borrowing positions on Aave are stagnating, demand for new loans has weakened, and incoming capital flows have diminished considerably. The divergence between falling TVL and rising exchange inflows creates a pattern that market analysts typically interpret as distribution behavior rather than accumulation.

The token has faced repeated rejections approaching the $100–$105 price zone, establishing this range as immediate overhead resistance. Meanwhile, the $85–$90 corridor represents critical support territory worth monitoring.

Notably, large-wallet addresses have continued accumulating AAVE tokens despite the broader outflow trend. At reporting time, Bitcoin maintained levels above $78,000 while Ethereum held above $2,300, offering a generally supportive macroeconomic environment for crypto assets.

Should buyers successfully breach the $96 level, the subsequent price target becomes $100. A decisive break above $100 would clear the path toward $108. Conversely, failure to maintain $90 support could expose the $88 level, with $84 representing the next significant support zone beneath that.

Key takeaways 

• XLM is down 2% on Thursday after the 100-day EMA capped its short-term recovery run.
• XLM futures Open Interest stabilizes, but the declining long-to-short ratio signals a bearish bias.

XLM flips bearish as the leverage market loses confidence

Stellar (XLM) extended its losses on Thursday, with the token struggling to regain momentum as the 100-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) near $0.1798 continues to cap upside attempts, reinforcing a bearish short-term outlook.

Sentiment in the derivatives market also points to growing downside expectations. Data from Coinglass shows that XLM futures Open Interest (OI) remains elevated at $114.70 million after climbing sharply from $99.45 million earlier this week, signaling sustained trader activity despite weak price action.

However, bearish positioning continues to dominate. The long-to-short ratio currently sits at 0.7632 — a level that has remained below 1 since mid-January — indicating that traders are increasingly favoring short positions and anticipating further downside for XLM.

Technical forecast: XLM could drop below $0.1700

The XLM/USD 4-hour chart remains bearish and efficient, indicating that the bears have regained control in the near term. 

XLM is trading below the key 100-day EMA while still holding above the 50-day EMA at $0.1669. 

Momentum indicators still show some signs of resilience. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is hovering around 62 on the 4-hour timeframe, remaining above the neutral midpoint, while the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) indicator continues to trade above its signal line, suggesting buyers have not fully lost control.

Still, downside risks remain elevated. If XLM falls below the 50-day EMA support at $0.1669, the token could slide toward the key consolidation support zone at $0.1471 — a level that has held since early February.

On the upside, bulls would need to push XLM above the 100-day EMA at $0.1798 to uphold a bullish sentiment. 

A daily candle close above that resistance could pave the way for a move toward the 200-day EMA near $0.2101.

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Key takeaways

• Hyperliquid holds steady around $40 on Thursday, up 1.1% in the last 24 hours.
• The negative funding rate gives HYPE a mixed signal in the market.

Hyperliquid (HYPE) is trading around $40.95 at press time on Thursday, stabilizing after a 3%+ gain in the previous session. 

While the decentralized exchange (DEX) token has managed to hold recent levels, weakening retail demand in the leverage market and a developing rising wedge pattern on the chart are keeping the broader outlook neutral-to-bearish.

HYPE’s futures market suggests a cooling demand

HYPE initially attracted strong retail interest during heightened geopolitical tensions around the US–Iran situation and the Strait of Hormuz, as its platform enabled 24/7 trading of commodities such as oil and precious metals. 

However, as geopolitical pressure eased following signals of extended diplomatic timelines, speculative interest in the token has started to fade.

Data from CoinGlass shows HYPE futures open interest at about $1.63 billion, moving mostly sideways—an indication that trader participation has plateaued. 

Meanwhile, the funding rate sits at -0.0061%, suggesting a growing tilt toward short positioning as traders increasingly bet on downside risk.

Technical outlook: Bears could push the price lower

The HYPE/USD 4-hour chart is bearish and efficient as HYPE remains supported above both the 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) near $38.46 and the 200-day EMA around $34.51. 

The 4-hour structure is forming a rising wedge pattern, typically considered a bearish setup when momentum weakens. The momentum indicators also paint a bearish picture. 

The MACD remains in negative territory, signaling fading bullish strength, while the RSI at 47 reflects a growing bearish condition. 

If the sellers remain in control, they would encounter immediate support at the trendline near $40.33. A break below this level could open a path toward the 50-day EMA at $38.46, followed by stronger support near the 200-day EMA at $34.51.

However, if the bulls push higher, resistance is first seen at $43.71, with further upside capped near $45.77 at the upper trendline boundary.

A 5% stake in AI coding startup Cursor that FTX’s bankruptcy estate sold for $200,000 in April 2023 would be worth about $3 billion today, following SpaceX’s agreement this week to acquire the company at a $60 billion valuation.

SpaceX said Monday it has the right to buy Cursor later this year for $60 billion or to pay $10 billion if the full acquisition does not proceed. The deal is founder Elon Musk’s move to close the gap with OpenAI and Anthropic on AI coding tools, an area where he recently said xAI, the Musk-run AI company that merged with SpaceX, is behind competitors.

SpaceX is holding off on immediate acquisition because of its planned initial public offering targeting a $2 trillion valuation, with the $10 billion serving as a breakup fee.

The crypto angle sits in the cap table. In April 2022, Alameda Research, the trading firm founded by Sam Bankman-Fried and run alongside FTX, invested $200,000 in Anysphere, the company that builds Cursor.

That investment bought roughly 5% of the company at a $4 million valuation. One year later FTX had collapsed, Alameda and FTX were in bankruptcy, and the court-appointed estate sold the Cursor stake for the same $200,000 Alameda had paid.

The stake is worth $3 billion at SpaceX’s $60 billion price tag, meaning the gap between what the FTX estate received and what the position would fetch today is roughly a 15,000x return. It was instead realized by whoever bought it from the bankruptcy rather than the creditors the estate was supposed to be maximizing recovery for.

The timing cuts awkwardly for FTX’s bankruptcy administration.

Bankman-Fried, currently serving a 25-year federal sentence, has spent the past year arguing from prison that FTX’s estate destroyed billions in value by liquidating assets too quickly during the bankruptcy, and that customers could have been made more than whole if the process had held positions instead of selling them into what turned out to be the bottom of crypto prices.

In February, he shared a projection suggesting FTX’s net asset value would have reached $78 billion if the estate had held assets through the subsequent recovery rather than selling in 2023 and 2024.

Cursor launched its AI coding product in early 2023, the same year the estate sold the stake, and the company’s trajectory from that launch to its current valuation three years later is among the steepest in software startup history.

FTX customers have since been made whole in dollar terms under the bankruptcy’s distribution plan, receiving back their claim values plus interest. What they did not receive is the upside from what those assets became between the bankruptcy filing and now, which in the case of the Cursor stake alone represents about $3 billion of forgone recovery against $200,000 realized.

Bankman-Fried’s parents have publicly advocated for a pardon, appearing on CNN in March arguing that FTX customers were ultimately repaid and that the case against their son should be revisited. The Cursor number is likely to feature prominently in the family’s continued campaign, and in Bankman-Fried’s own letters from prison, as the single clearest example of the kind of value he claims the estate destroyed through forced selling.

Ether futures on Binance have surged to a near two-month high as aggressive buyers stepped into the market over the past week. The 24-hour cumulative net taker volume climbed to about $5.5 billion, rising roughly 72% from about $3.2 billion earlier in the month, according to data tracked by CryptoQuant. The move aligns with a broader technical setup that keeps a critical liquidity zone in focus for ETH, with traders watching a potential breakout beyond the mid-$2,400s toward a $2,475–$2,634 corridor if buy-side pressure remains sustained and supply-side resistance eases.

CryptoQuant data show the 30-day average of net taker volume has remained positive since March 1, a pattern last seen in July 2022. That sustained buying cadence, alongside the growing futures activity, paints a picture of continued demand from participants rather than a fleeting bounce. Amr Taha, a market analyst cited in CryptoQuant’s quicktake, noted that spikes in buying near local highs often signal stronger conviction, suggesting buyers may be in control of the near-term price direction as momentum builds.

Key takeaways

• Binance ETH futures net taker volume hits about $5.5 billion in 24 hours, up 72% from earlier this month, indicating sustained buyer dominance.
• The 30-day net taker-volume average has been positive since March 1, reaching levels not seen since July 2022.
• ETH faces a key resistance around $2,400; a clean break could unlock the $2,475–$2,634 zone where a daily fair-value gap sits, created during February’s sell-off.
• The price is attempting to reclaim the 100-day EMA, a sign that the uptrend could gain traction; the 200-day EMA sits near the upper end of the imbalance zone around $2,634, aligning with liquidity considerations.
• Derivatives signals show futures cumulative volume delta (CVD) approaching $12.6 billion, with funding rates near neutral, suggesting leverage has not expanded aggressively alongside price.

Buy-side momentum and the path through the liquidity cloud

The immediate narrative around Ether’s price action is closely tied to the strength of daily demand captured in the futures market. The $5.5 billion 24-hour net taker volume on Binance represents a significant tilt toward buyers rather than sellers, reinforcing the sense that market participants are willing to chase higher prices rather than step back at the first sign of supply. This level of activity, when viewed against the 30-day positive readings, points to a broader conviction among traders that ETH can sustain upside momentum beyond the current consolidation range.

From a market structure standpoint, the $2,400 barrier has proved a stubborn but not unbreakable ceiling. The price has tested this level three times since early February, with each rejection thinning the density of overhead sell orders. A decisive move above $2,400 would shift attention to the next liquidity-rich zone between roughly $2,475 and $2,634. That corridor hosts a daily fair-value gap left behind by a February sell-off, an area where price can snap back quickly if bid-side liquidity improves and sell orders are absorbed efficiently.

Technical watchers are keeping an eye on trend-following indicators as well. Ether’s attempt to reclaim the 100-day exponential moving average (EMA) is viewed as a potential sign of trend continuation, provided the rally can sustain above this benchmark. Conversely, the 200-day EMA sits near the upper boundary of the current imbalance zone, implying that any sustained move into the higher end of the range would converge with overs supply and liquidity considerations. The interplay between EMA dynamics and the liquidity gap helps explain why even a modest breakout could accelerate through the $2,400 hurdle if buyers remain persistent.

Derivatives signals: cautious optimism amid balanced leverage

Beyond spot and futures price activity, the derivatives landscape paints a nuanced picture of risk and reward. The futures cumulative volume delta (CVD) has been climbing toward $12.6 billion, signaling ongoing buying pressure in the disciplined posture of the market. Yet funding rates have remained near neutral, suggesting that while demand exists, leverage has not surged in lockstep with price gains. In practical terms, this balance means the near-term upside might hinge on continued bid activity rather than an aggressive expansion of borrowed exposure.

Taken together, the data imply a near-term liquidity cluster around the $2,475–$2,634 zone remains the critical hurdle for ETH. Clearing this band would not only reflect a shift in market sentiment but also provide a clearer pathway for a more durable rally, as new orders fill on the back of rising conviction and improved liquidity depth. For traders, the key question is whether current buyers can sustain enough pressure to overwhelm fresh supply that tends to cluster near resistance zones, especially given the neutral stand of funding costs.

Overall, the current setup suggests a moment of thoughtful optimism rather than exuberant hype. The confluence of rising taker-volume, persistent positive net inflows in the 30-day window, and a technical chart that hints at a liquidity-driven breakout offers a plausible path for ETH in the near term. Investors will want to monitor whether the $2,400 barrier is decisively crossed and whether the liquidity gap in the $2,475–$2,634 range can be absorbed with limited downside risk.

Readers should watch how the price actions unfold around the key resistance zone and the related liquidity clusters in the coming sessions, as a sustained move beyond $2,400 would set the stage for a more pronounced leg higher—provided market participants sustain the current level of demand without a sharp pullback in leverage or a shift in macro risk sentiment.

TLDR:

• Pornhub replaced USDT with USDC for creator payouts, citing better reliability and MiCA regulatory compliance.
• The switch ends Pornhub’s infrastructure partnership with Justin Sun’s TronLink wallet established back in 2020.
• Drift Protocol took the opposite route, moving from USDC to USDT following a $127.5M Tether-backed bailout.
• USDC’s MiCA-compliant status is driving adoption on platforms operating within regulated financial environments.

USDC has officially replaced USDT as the preferred stablecoin for creator payouts on Pornhub. The world’s largest adult website confirmed the change through an email sent to its content creators.

The switch follows years of relying on Tether after PayPal exited the platform in 2020. Pornhub cited payment reliability and regulatory compliance as its primary reasons for adopting Circle’s stablecoin.

The move also ends the platform’s infrastructure partnership with Justin Sun’s TronLink wallet.

Pornhub Cites MiCA Compliance in the USDC Transition

The email sent to creators described USDC as a “fully-backed, MiCA-compliant and regulated stablecoin.” Pornhub added that it provides “a more secure option for your earnings” compared to USDT.

The platform also stated that USDC “is pegged 1:1 to the US dollar.” It further noted that it “works just like USDT on the ERC-20 network.”

OnlyFans content creator Gracie Hartie shared a screenshot of the email on social media. A Japanese trader also confirmed receiving the same communication from Pornhub.

The email specifically stated the change was aimed at making payouts “more reliable” for creators. The broad circulation of the message confirmed the policy shift applied across multiple regions.

Pornhub’s model program page no longer lists USDT as an available payout method. In its place, the page now shows USDC alongside Paxum, Verge, and Cosmo.

The removal of USDT from the payout list marks a complete and deliberate transition. Creators are expected to update their wallet information to reflect the change.

Pornhub adopted USDT back in 2020 after PayPal severed ties with the platform. The company stated at the time, “Since PayPal’s decision to stop payouts to thousands of Models two months ago, we’ve been hustling to…offer you more options.”

That USDT infrastructure was supported through a partnership with Justin Sun’s TronLink wallet. That partnership no longer appears anywhere on Pornhub’s model program page.

USDT and USDC Continue to Compete Across Different Platforms

While Pornhub moved to USDC, a separate development saw USDT gaining ground in another ecosystem. Earlier this month, Tether stepped in to support the hacked Drift Protocol with a $127.5 million bailout.

The Solana-based platform had been drained of approximately $285 million by attackers. North Korean-linked hackers were suspected of compromising a multisig wallet to execute the breach.

As part of the bailout deal, Drift Protocol agreed to transition its settlement asset from USDC to USDT. This effectively reversed the stablecoin preference within that ecosystem.

The back-and-forth between the two stablecoins reflects an ongoing rivalry in the crypto market. Each major platform event appears to shift institutional preference in a new direction.

These moves by both Pornhub and Drift show how stablecoin adoption continues to shift across platforms. USDC’s standing under MiCA gives it an advantage in compliance-focused environments.

USDT, however, retains dominance in markets where liquidity and speed take priority. The broader competition between the two stablecoins remains very much active.