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US spot crypto ETFs see fresh inflows into BTC, ETH and SOL

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US spot ETFs absorbed 4,349 BTC, 35,736 ETH and 1,311 SOL in a day, signaling that despite choppy prices, regulated wrappers remain the preferred route into crypto exposure.

US-listed spot Bitcoin (BTC) ETFs saw net inflows of 4,349 BTC today, pointing to steady institutional and advisory demand despite ongoing volatility in digital asset markets, according to on-chain tracker Lookonchain.

Bitcoin, Ethereum, Solana ETFs attract new capital

At current market levels, that represents a roughly mid eight-figure allocation into regulated Bitcoin products in a single session, adding to the already sizable holdings accumulated by issuers since the first approvals.

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Ethereum (ETH) ETF flows were even more notable in native units, with Lookonchain reporting 35,736 ETH in net inflows into US vehicles over the same period.

This wave of ETH buying via ETFs comes as traders reassess Ethereum’s positioning ahead of potential further upgrades and as staking yields and DeFi risks remain in focus for professional allocators.

Solana products, still comparatively smaller than their Bitcoin and Ethereum peers, logged net inflows of 1,311 SOL, suggesting that investor interest in higher-beta layer-1 exposure is persisting alongside blue-chip assets.

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Taken together, the positive flows into Bitcoin, Ethereum and Solana (SOL) ETFs highlight that regulated wrappers remain a preferred channel for US-based institutions and advisers seeking crypto exposure, even as macro conditions and regulatory signals stay mixed.

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$404K Polymarket Bet Triggers First CFTC Insider Trading Case Against US Army Soldier

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Brian Armstrong's Bold Prediction: AI Agents Will Soon Dominate Global Financial

TLDR:

  • CFTC accuses Army service member of Polymarket trades using classified Venezuela operation intel.
  • Over 436K event contract shares allegedly produced $404K profit via “Yes” Maduro position.
  • Case marks first CFTC insider trading enforcement tied specifically to prediction market contracts.
  • SDNY unsealed parallel indictment the same day, expanding civil and criminal pressure on defendant.

The Commodity Futures Trading Commission has filed a civil complaint against Gannon Ken Van Dyke in the Southern District of New York. The defendant, an active-duty U.S. Army service member, allegedly traded on Polymarket using classified operational information. 

Authorities say the activity involved an operation linked to the attempted capture of former Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro. The case also runs alongside a parallel criminal indictment unsealed by federal prosecutors in New York.

CFTC Polymarket Insider Trading Case Involving U.S. Army Service Member

According to the CFTC complaint, Van Dyke participated in “Operation Absolute Resolve” between December 2025 and January 2026. 

The agency alleges he accessed classified and sensitive nonpublic information during operational planning. That information reportedly gave him insight into geopolitical outcomes tied to Maduro’s status.

Investigators claim he used that intelligence to trade on Polymarket prediction markets. 

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The activity centered on a contract asking whether Maduro would be out by January 31, 2026. Authorities say he purchased more than 436,000 “Yes” shares.

The complaint states Van Dyke operated under the handle “Burdensome-Mix” on Polymarket. 

His positions allegedly generated over $404,000 in trading profits. The CFTC argues this conduct violated duties of confidentiality owed by military personnel.

Besides, the regulator is now seeking restitution, disgorgement, civil penalties, trading bans, and a permanent injunction. The filing also marks a new enforcement angle for prediction markets linked to real-world events.

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Allegations, Enforcement Action, and Parallel SDNY Indictment

CFTC officials described the alleged conduct as misuse of sensitive government information in regulated markets

The agency emphasized that service members hold strict confidentiality obligations. It also linked the case to broader concerns about insider activity in prediction-based trading platforms.

Enforcement leadership said the defendant’s actions involved classified operational details tied to U.S. military planning. 

Authorities argue that such disclosures created market advantage in event contract trading. The case expands scrutiny of how nonpublic information intersects with decentralized betting markets.

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The CFTC noted this is its first enforcement action involving insider trading on event contracts. Officials also referenced the use of a regulatory approach informally known as the “Eddie Murphy Rule.” The agency said it intends to intensify monitoring of prediction markets.

Separately, the U.S. Attorney’s Office for the Southern District of New York unsealed a criminal indictment on April 23, 2026. 

Prosecutors allege similar conduct involving misuse of classified information and financial gain. The dual-track enforcement underscores coordinated civil and criminal action

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BTC ETFs pull $2 billion in 8 days while short-term holders sell

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(SoSoValue)

Somebody is buying $2.1 billion of bitcoin through ETFs. Somebody else is using that bid to get out.

U.S. spot bitcoin ETFs have now logged eight straight days of inflows totaling $2.10 billion through April 23, per SoSoValue. That is the longest streak since the nine-day October 2025 run that took bitcoin to its $126,000 all-time high. April 23 alone brought $223.21 million, with BlackRock’s IBIT doing roughly 75% of the lifting at $167.49 million and Fidelity’s FBTC the one meaningful outflow at $16.93 million.

(SoSoValue)

Bitcoin has climbed from $68,000 to $77,000 over the streak, a 12% move that has coincided almost perfectly with the ETF bid returning. Cumulative ETF net inflows since launch now sit at $58 billion, and total assets hit $102 billion, which is 6.5% of bitcoin’s market cap.

But here is the part the ETF data does not tell.

A Glassnode report from earlier this week showed that bitcoin just reclaimed its True Market Mean at $78,100, which tracks the average cost basis of actively transacted supply. That is the first time that level has been reclaimed since mid-January, and historically marks the transition from bear-market conditions to something more constructive.

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The problem is the next level. The Short-Term Holder Cost Basis sits at $80,100, which is the average entry price for anyone who bought in the last 155 days. A move above it would push more than 54% of recent buyers into profit.

In every prior instance this cycle, that threshold has coincided with local top formation as short-term holders use the rally to break even and exit. This is the second time the structure has set up, and it broke down the first time.

Short-term holder realized profit has already spiked to $4.4 million per hour, per Glassnode. The $1.5 million threshold has preceded every local top year-to-date. The current reading is three times that.

The setup from here is specific. Funding on bitcoin perpetuals is still negative, meaning shorts are paying longs. Saturday’s short squeeze took bitcoin to $78,000 briefly before the Hormuz reversal pulled it back.

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A second squeeze, stacked on the ETF bid and the spot demand Glassnode has flagged as recovering on offshore venues, is the clean path to $80,000. Whether that break holds against short-term holder distribution, or gets sold into the same way every local top has been sold this cycle, is the trade.

March’s seven-day streak broke the same week price tagged its local high. IBIT has carried most of the current run alone while smaller issuers posted mixed flows. The structure is not identical but the pattern rhymes.

The ETF bid is real. The exit liquidity for short-term holders it provides is also real. Which side wins at $80,000 is worth watching.

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Ethereum (ETH) Price Analysis: $633M in ETF Inflows Amid Continued Resistance at $2,400

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Ethereum (ETH) Price

Key Highlights

  • U.S. spot Ethereum ETFs have seen net inflows for 10 straight trading sessions, accumulating $633 million
  • Ether continues to face rejection at the $2,400 price level and has declined 22% so far in 2026
  • Nasdaq welcomed the BESO ETF from GSR Markets, marking the debut of a multi-crypto fund featuring staking rewards
  • Ethereum’s DApp-generated revenue has plunged to $13 million per week, representing a nearly 50% decline over half a year
  • Technical observers suggest $2,250 could serve as the next critical support if current resistance persists

Ethereum (ETH) is currently hovering near $2,340, consistently unable to sustain price action above the $2,400 threshold. While the asset experienced an uptick in tandem with Bitcoin’s push toward $79,000, the upward drive proved insufficient to pierce through major resistance zones.

Ethereum (ETH) Price
Ethereum (ETH) Price

U.S.-based spot Ethereum exchange-traded funds have recorded positive net flows for ten consecutive trading days through Wednesday, bringing total inflows to $633 million. Overall cumulative flows into these investment vehicles are now nearing the $12 billion mark. Within the current week alone, just three sessions contributed $206 million in net capital, representing the strongest weekly performance since these products debuted.

GSR Markets introduced the BESO ETF on the Nasdaq exchange this week, representing the first actively managed U.S. fund to hold a diversified portfolio of Bitcoin, Ethereum, and Solana while distributing staking yields. The product carries a 1% annual management fee, undergoes weekly rebalancing, and channels Ethereum staking returns of approximately 3.3–4.0% annually straight to investors.

BESO joins a competitive landscape that includes BlackRock’s IBIT, currently managing $54 billion in assets, and Bitwise’s BAVA, which provides AVAX exposure featuring 5.4% staking yields.

Transaction activity on the ETH network jumped 41% from the previous week as ETF-related engagement intensified. Additionally, the amount of ETH available on exchanges continues to contract as staking mechanisms remove tokens from circulation.

Declining DApp Revenue Creates Headwinds

Weekly revenue generated by decentralized applications on the Ethereum network has dropped to $13 million in April, marking a decline of nearly 50% compared to figures from six months prior. The wider DApp ecosystem has experienced similar pressures, with combined weekly blockchain DApp revenue across platforms falling to $73 million from $130 million recorded in October 2025.

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Competing networks including Solana, BNB Chain, and Hyperliquid have exhibited comparable downturns, indicating this represents an industry-wide phenomenon rather than challenges unique to Ethereum.

Year-to-date, ETH has fallen 22%, underperforming compared to the broader cryptocurrency market’s 14% decline. Nevertheless, Ethereum maintains its dominant position in total value locked (TVL), while its layer-2 scaling solutions have captured increasing market share in decentralized exchange trading volumes.

The annualized premium on ETH futures contracts has contracted to just 1%, significantly beneath the 4% baseline considered neutral. This reflects minimal appetite for leveraged long exposure, marking the weakest level observed over the past four months.

Technical Perspectives on Critical Price Zones

Crypto analyst Ali Charts highlighted that ETH is currently testing its Realized Price level at $2,340, which represents the average acquisition cost for all on-chain holders. Historical patterns suggest that when this level successfully holds as support, Ethereum has typically entered expansion cycles.

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Analyst Ted Pillows cautioned that ETH’s inability to reclaim $2,400 raises concerns and pinpointed $2,250 as the subsequent crucial support area. He emphasized that ETH appears to be exhibiting weakness compared to Bitcoin’s performance.

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Research from TD Cowen establishes a $3,650 price objective for ETH, while Standard Chartered maintains a longer-term institutional projection of $7,500 based on anticipated capital flows.

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The cryptocurrency Fear & Greed Index currently registers at 33, signaling fear sentiment among market participants, with 30-day price volatility measured at 5%.

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Polymarket Traders Profit $37K From Paris Weather Glitch

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Polymarket Traders Profit $37K From Paris Weather Glitch

Two Polymarket accounts have attracted suspicion after making $37,000 betting correctly on two unusual temperature readings of a weather station located in a major airport in France.

The two weather-focused prediction markets focused on the highest temperature in Paris on April 6 and 15, using the highest temperature recorded at the Charles de Gaulle Airport Station in degrees Celsius, according to Polymarket.

French media outlet BFMTV reported on Monday that the temperature suddenly climbed to over 21 degrees Celsius on April 6, before dropping again immediately. The market resolved with the winner taking over $16,000. The winning account is under 30 days old.

Meanwhile, blockchain analytics tool Bubblemaps reported a similar glitch for the April 15 market. The weather station showed 18 degrees Celsius most of the day, then suddenly spiked to 22 degrees Celsius before dropping back.

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Some have questioned whether foul play was involved. Prediction markets are already facing growing scrutiny over insider trading and possible violations of gambling laws.

Source: Bubble Maps

“That spike didn’t show on nearby stations,” Bubblemaps analysts said, adding that “Just before the spike, one trader started buying NO shares on 18°C,” before exiting with over $21,000.

The winning trader account has been highly active on Polymarket with wagers on crypto and weather. However, this is the largest payout by a wide margin; the next-highest is $13.

Ruben Hallali, a meteorologist, told BFMTV the temperature glitch was unlikely to be a natural event and alleged it may have been tampered with on-site.

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Related: Charles Schwab, Citadel Securities are eying prediction markets

“Such temperature variations seem very unlikely, especially on these two dates, and over such a short period. We can imagine that an individual with a good understanding of how the sensors work intervened, resulting in temperatures rising by two degrees at the right time, to validate a bet,” he added.

Météo France, the official government weather agency of France, has reportedly made a complaint with the police unit the Roissy Air Transport Gendarmerie Brigade, for alleged tampering with the operation of its automated data processing systems.

Magazine: How to fix suspected insider trading on Polymarket and Kalshi

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Cointelegraph is committed to independent, transparent journalism. This news article is produced in accordance with Cointelegraph’s Editorial Policy and aims to provide accurate and timely information. Readers are encouraged to verify information independently.

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Crypto protocols pledge 43K ETH to restore rsETH backing

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Crypto protocols pledge 43K ETH to restore rsETH backing

Mantle, EtherFi Foundation, Golem Foundation, Lido DAO, Ethena, LayerZero, Ink Foundation and Tyrdo have all made pledges to the “DeFi United” recovery effort.

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US Crackdown on Southeast Asian Scam Centers Nets $700 Million Crypto Seizure

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Banks Broaden Lobbying Against Stablecoin Yield in CLARITY Act Talks

The US Department of Justice (DOJ) restrained more than $700 million in crypto and filed wire fraud conspiracy charges against two Chinese nationals who allegedly managed scam compounds.

US Attorney Jeanine Ferris Pirro, Assistant Attorney General A. Tysen Duva, and partners announced the coordinated actions alongside Treasury and State Department measures aimed at dismantling Southeast Asia’s compound-based fraud network.

Scam Center Strike Force Targets Burma Compound and Cambodia Expansion

The Scam Center Strike Force announced the enforcement push against transnational criminal groups accused of stealing billions from American victims. 

Huang Xingshan and Jiang Wen Jie allegedly managed the Shunda compound in Min Let Pan, Burma, between January and November 2025. They also use the aliases “Ah Zhe” and “Jiang Nan,” according to the press release.

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“According to the investigation, Huang served at Shunda as a high-level manager and enforcer and personally participated in the physical punishment of trafficked compound workers. Jiang served as a team leader directly supervising workers who specifically targeted American victims,” the authorities revealed.

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Prosecutors say one American victim lost more than $3 million to a worker managed by Jiang. The two defendants also tried to establish a second compound in Cambodia. Investigators seized 503 websites that hosted fraudulent investment platforms.

Authorities also took control of a Telegram channel with over 6,000 followers. The channel recruited victims into a Cambodia-based scheme that posed as law enforcement.

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FBI Co-Deputy Director Christopher G. Raia described the actions as a significant blow to transnational criminal organizations targeting American citizens.

“We have taken down more than 500 websites used to steal people’s savings. And my Office continues to work to identify funds stolen from victims, having now caused restraint of more than $700 million in cryptocurrency involved in money laundering from US victims of fraud. This Administration is lock-step in combatting these scams, and we are not done,” US Attorney Jeanine Pirro said.

In addition, the Treasury Department’s Office of Foreign Assets Control (OFAC) designated Kok An, a Cambodian senator accused of controlling scam compounds across the country. 

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REAL and RWA Inc. Expand RWA Infrastructure Ahead of Token Launch

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Brian Armstrong's Bold Prediction: AI Agents Will Soon Dominate Global Financial

TLDR:

  • REAL and RWA Inc. will explore tokenized asset issuance and investor onboarding infrastructure
  • The partnership includes post-issuance servicing, reporting, and asset distribution channels
  • AI-powered automation and co-marketing will support REAL’s upcoming token generation event
  • RWA market projections now point to a $16 trillion opportunity by 2030 across global finance

REAL, a Layer 1 blockchain focused on real-world assets, has entered a strategic partnership with RWA Inc. as tokenized finance continues to gain traction across crypto markets. The deal centers on asset issuance, investor access, and post-launch support for tokenized real-world assets on-chain. 

Both firms plan to use the partnership to strengthen infrastructure before REAL’s upcoming token generation event. The announcement comes as demand for compliant, yield-focused blockchain products continues to grow.

REAL and RWA Inc. Build RWA Infrastructure for Tokenized Assets

According to REAL’s official announcement on X, the partnership will explore how selected tokenized assets from RWA Inc. can launch on REAL’s blockchain.

The company said its Layer 1 network was built specifically for tokenization, trading, and management of real-world assets. That includes products like treasuries, gold, and private market assets.

RWA Inc. focuses on asset tokenization, investor onboarding, and Web3 growth systems. It also provides launch strategy, automation tools, and investor-facing infrastructure for projects entering the market.

REAL said both sides will work on distribution channels and lifecycle support after issuance. That includes reporting, servicing, and access management for investors holding tokenized assets.

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The firms also plan to develop AI-powered automation and campaign support around adoption efforts. Co-marketing activities will also support REAL’s upcoming TGE as the network prepares for broader rollout.

REAL added that future discussions may include agentic AI in governance, validation, and financial workflows. Both teams scheduled an X Spaces event for April 24 at 12 PM UTC to discuss the roadmap publicly.

RWA Market Growth Pushes More Blockchain Infrastructure Deals

The partnership arrives as real-world asset tokenization moves beyond early experimentation and into live financial infrastructure across crypto markets.

In a separate post, DeFi researcher The Angel said RWA is shifting from a market narrative into operating infrastructure. The post pointed to technology readiness, regulation, and institutional capital as the main drivers.

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The Angel highlighted jurisdictions like Hong Kong for creating clearer compliance paths for institutions. That reduces uncertainty and makes tokenized assets easier to deploy at scale.

Capital is also rotating toward stable, yield-generating assets instead of purely speculative crypto products. Tokenized U.S. Treasuries, tokenized gold, and pre-IPO equity were listed among the strongest demand areas.

The same post projected the RWA market could reach $16 trillion by 2030, representing nearly 10% of global GDP. It also noted that exchanges are seeing stronger monetization from asset-backed tokens.

Another growing area involves compute, energy, and AI-backed infrastructure linked to RWAs. This includes energy-backed compute and financial systems tied to physical assets.

REAL and RWA Inc.’s partnership reflects that broader shift as blockchain firms compete to become the settlement layer for tokenized finance.

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Army Soldier Used Classified Maduro Intel to Win Over $400,000 on Polymarket, DOJ Says

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Arbitrum Security Council Blocks KelpDAO Hacker From 30,766 ETH

The Department of Justice has charged a US Army soldier in a Polymarket insider trading case. 

He allegedly used classified intelligence to win roughly $409,881 by betting on the January capture of Venezuela’s Nicolás Maduro.

US Soldier Turned $33,000 Into $400,000 on Polymarket Using Classified Intel

According to a Justice Department indictment unsealed, Gannon Ken Van Dyke, a 38-year-old stationed at Fort Bragg, turned about $33,034 into approximately $410,000 across 13 prediction market bets before allegedly trying to erase his trail.

“Gannon Ken Van Dyke allegedly betrayed his fellow soldiers by utilizing classified information for his own financial gain. Van Dyke profited more than $400,000 by trading various outcomes related to Venezuela after learning of the operation because of his role as a US Army soldier,” FBI Assistant Director in Charge James C. Barnacle Jr said.

The US soldier was involved in planning and executing “Operation Absolute Resolve.” The early morning January 3 mission captured Maduro and his wife in Caracas. 

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Van Dyke, who reportedly used the Polymarket handle “Burdensome-Mix,” started placing Polymarket wagers on December 27, 2025, days before the operation went live.

All 13 bets took “YES” positions on Maduro and Venezuela-related contracts. They included “Maduro out by January 31” and “US Forces in Venezuela by January 31.”  The Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) said Van Dyke bought more than 436,000 “Yes” shares of the Maduro contract alone. 

After making a profit, Van Dyke allegedly moved most of the proceeds to a foreign crypto vault, changed his exchange email to an alias, and asked Polymarket to delete his account.

The US soldier faces five counts. They include three violations of the Commodity Exchange Act, as well as wire fraud and an unlawful monetary transaction. Each CEA count carries a maximum of 10 years, while each wire fraud count carries a maximum of 20 years.

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The CFTC has also filed a parallel complaint in the US District Court for the Southern District of New York. The agency is seeking restitution, trading bans, and civil penalties.

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Polymarket has faced mounting pressure this year over wallets making precisely timed bets on geopolitical events. Suspected insiders allegedly profited hundreds of thousands on contracts linked to the Iran conflict and the Maduro operation.

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The complaint breaks new ground for the CFTC, delivering both its first event-contract insider trading charge and its application of the “Eddie Murphy Rule” covering misused federal information.

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Ripple Expands Digital Asset Custody Push as Institutions Move Onchain

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TLDR:

  • Ripple says custody now anchors payments, staking, tokenization, and treasury operations for banks
  • Kyobo Life became Korea’s first major insurer exploring blockchain custody with Ripple infrastructure
  • Chainalysis and Securosys integrations strengthen compliance checks and enterprise-grade key security
  • Figment partnership lets institutions offer ETH and SOL staking inside custody workflows safely

Ripple is expanding its digital asset custody business as regulated financial institutions push deeper into blockchain-based operations. 

The company said custody now sits at the center of payments, tokenization, staking, and treasury management for banks entering digital assets. 

Recent partnerships and integrations show Ripple is focusing on compliance, security, and faster institutional onboarding. The move comes as more banks and insurers shift from pilot programs to production-level digital asset platforms.

Ripple Digital Asset Custody Expands Across Banking and Insurance

Ripple said digital asset adoption is moving beyond early testing in Europe, the UAE, and Asia. Stablecoins are now entering treasury operations, while tokenized real-world assets continue gaining regulatory support.

The company argues custody has become the governance layer for these services. Without secure custody, compliance gaps and operational risks can slow institutional adoption.

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Since late 2025, Ripple has expanded Ripple Custody across several core areas. These include wallet infrastructure, transaction compliance, enterprise security, and institutional staking.

Its acquisition of Palisade added wallet infrastructure and scalable transaction signing. Ripple also integrated Chainalysis tools for real-time transaction screening and policy enforcement.

The Securosys integration introduced cloud-based hardware security module support. At the same time, Ripple partnered with Figment to add institutional staking for Proof-of-Stake networks.

Ripple also announced a partnership with Kyobo Life Insurance in South Korea. According to Ripple, the insurer will explore blockchain-based custody and on-chain settlement infrastructure.

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Kyobo is one of Korea’s largest insurers and the first major insurance firm there to take this step. Ripple said this reflects broader institutional movement into digital asset operations.

Ripple Custody Adds Staking and Cloud HSM Security Tools

Ripple said institutions want custody platforms that fit into existing banking systems without major operational changes. The company is pushing an API-first structure designed for banks, custodians, and regulated enterprises.

It said clients want fewer vendors and faster deployment. This reduces delays and lowers infrastructure costs for digital asset operations.

Ripple listed partners including BBVA, DBS Bank, DZ Bank, and Intesa Sanpaolo. The company said these institutions use Ripple Custody for digital asset management and related services.

In Europe, Intesa Sanpaolo is using Ripple Custody for its digital asset initiatives. This reflects growing demand from major banks for compliant crypto infrastructure.

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Through Securosys, Ripple now offers CyberVault HSM and Cloud HSM integrations. These tools allow institutions to manage cryptographic keys without large hardware deployments.

Ripple said this helps banks meet security requirements while reducing onboarding time. It also supports compliance across different regulatory jurisdictions.

The Figment partnership adds staking for Ethereum and Solana directly inside custody workflows. Ripple said institutions can offer staking without building their own validator systems.

This allows staking to remain under existing governance and compliance controls. Ripple sees this as a key step for institutions expanding digital asset services.

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Bitcoin, ether drop in Asia as Japanese data adds to Iran war-led market jitters

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Bitcoin, ether drop in Asia as Japanese data adds to Iran war-led market jitters

Cryptocurrency markets remained on the back foot Friday as macroeconomic signals from Japan, one of the world’s largest economies, compounded uncertainty driven by the Iran war.

Bitcoin hovered near $77,800, having struggled to break above the Thursday high of $78,700 during the early Asian trading hours, according to CoinDesk data. The broader uptrend, which began in late March near the $65,000 mark, appears to have stalled since Wednesday.

Ether (ETH), the second-largest cryptocurrency by market capitalization, traded around $2,300, slipping 0.8% since midnight UTC and underperforming bitcoin’s relatively modest 0.6% decline.

The cautious tone in crypto markets coincided with fresh inflation data out of Japan. The country’s Corporate Service Price Index (CSPI) rose 3.1% year-on-year in March, exceeding forecasts of 3.0% and underscoring persistent price pressures in the services sector.

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Additional government data showed core inflation rising to 1.8% in March from 1.6% in February, marking the first acceleration in five months. Headline inflation edged up to 1.5% from 1.3%, though it remained below the Bank of Japan’s 2% target for a second consecutive month. Meanwhile, core-core inflation, which excludes both fresh food and energy, eased to 2.4%, its lowest level since October 2024.

The uptick in headline inflation aligns with rising energy costs linked to geopolitical tensions, particularly disruptions to oil shipments through the Strait of Hormuz amid the ongoing Iran conflict.

apan, a major crude importer, remains especially vulnerable to such price shocks. WTI crude futures have risen over 40% to $96 since the onset of the Iran war in late February.

Market participants are now turning their attention to the Bank of Japan’s upcoming policy meeting. Analysts at InvestingLive suggest a shift in tone may be imminent.
“The Bank of Japan looks set to hold fire next week but deliver a pointed warning that rates are heading higher, with June firmly in play as war-driven inflation risks build,” analysts said.

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Hints of tighter monetary policy and potential rate hikes could lift the Japanese yen (JPY) and influence global market sentiment. It’s especially plausible now, given that speculative positioning in the yen is currently bearish, according to the latest CFTC data. As a result, there is room for a sharp bullish reaction in the yen if the Bank of Japan turns hawkish.

As for the broader market impact, a stronger yen may not be favorable. Historically, the yen has been used to fund purchases of risk assets worldwide. A sudden appreciation in the currency could therefore trigger an unwinding of those trades, leading to increased risk aversion.

Speaking of the Iran war, Iran has deployed additional naval mines in the Strait of Hormuz this week, according to Axios. Shipping traffic through the Hormuz, which
accounts for 20% of the world’s seaborne oil, fallen sharply since the conflict intensified.

The Pentagon warned lawmakers that it would take at least six months to clear mines in the Strait, with the process only beginning after the war ends. It also cautioned that inflation in the U.S. could remain elevated this year, potentially making it harder for the Fed to cut rates.

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