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Steve Englander on US dollar, oil and the surprising market resilience

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Steve Englander on US dollar, oil and the surprising market resilience
As global markets navigate a complex mix of geopolitical uncertainty and economic resilience, investors are closely watching how the ongoing West Asia tensions unfold. Despite initial fears of prolonged disruption, recent trends suggest a more measured response from financial markets, particularly in the United States.

In an interaction with ET Now, Steve Englander from Standard Chartered Bank shared his perspective on the evolving situation, noting that neither side appears eager to escalate tensions further.

“Well, look, I think both sides are clearly hesitant to reinitiate hostilities. Both are hoping that the other one is in a more difficult economic and political situation and will cave first.”

He pointed out an interesting shift in market behavior. While US equities have pulled back slightly from their highs, their correlation with oil prices has weakened significantly compared to the early weeks of the conflict. Even Israeli equities, he observed, are hovering near all-time highs.

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“In some ways, you can say that the pressure on Trump may be less than the Iranians are counting on, given that the asset markets seem to be dealing with this relatively well.”


The US dollar, meanwhile, has shown signs of strengthening against major global currencies. However, Englander cautioned against attributing this solely to oil price movements or geopolitical developments.
“No, it is certainly having an impact on other regions, and again the Iranian side is probably hoping that that leads other countries to put pressure on the States to back off.”He added that the dollar’s movement is more closely tied to equity market performance than to oil dynamics.

“I would say that the dollar is weaker than it was before when oil prices hit these levels, but I do not think it is because of oil. I think that the negative correlation between the dollar and equity prices has been the strongest correlation over the last couple of weeks.”

Interestingly, the resilience of US equities may itself be contributing to a softer dollar.

“Paradoxically, the fact that the US equities are so robust is making the dollar weaker, and you are not seeing a global equities collapse.”

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When it comes to market focus, Englander believes the spotlight has shifted away from geopolitical risks toward corporate performance, especially in the technology and AI sectors.

“It is possible, but setting aside the war, say the war had never happened, US earnings would still be strong. The AI productivity drive would still be strong, and probably stronger than in other countries.”

He also highlighted structural advantages within the US economy, particularly its labor market flexibility.

“It is easy to fire people, and that is unfortunate when it happens, but it is also easy to hire people. So, I think that the ability to adjust is strongest certainly within G10 and the US as compared to Europe or Japan.”

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Turning to bond markets, the US 10-year yield—currently around 4.33%—has repeatedly faced resistance near the 4.4% mark. While some see this as a ceiling tied to geopolitical stress, Englander views it differently.

“Well, looking at the same thing, you can look at oil prices, you can look at inflation breakevens, you can look at Treasury yields—they have all been very strongly correlated, and that correlation is still in place.”

He expects yields to rise further over time, regardless of the conflict.

“Ultimately, I think that US yields are going to go above 4.4 even without the war. There is enough going on in terms of activity picking up, real returns picking up—the direction of travel for bond yields is higher.”

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For now, while uncertainties persist, markets appear to be taking the situation in stride—balancing geopolitical risks with strong economic fundamentals and corporate performance.

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Fitch withdraws Reliance Capital ratings

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ET Search
NEW DELHI: Fitch on Friday said it has withdrawn the ratings on Reliance Capital as the company has decided to stop participating in the agency’s rating process.

“The ratings have been withdrawn as Reliance Capital has chosen to stop participating in the rating process. Therefore, Fitch will no longer have sufficient information to provide ratings or analytical coverage of Reliance Capital,” Fitch Ratings said in a statement.

A leading financial services company Reliance Capital, an Anil Ambani group firm, has interests in diverse areas including asset management, mutual funds, portfolio management services, life and general insurance.

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German business sentiment hits lowest since 2020 as Iran war weighs

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German business sentiment hits lowest since 2020 as Iran war weighs


German business sentiment hits lowest since 2020 as Iran war weighs

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Stifel raises MaxLinear stock price target on data center growth

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Stifel raises MaxLinear stock price target on data center growth

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Truist raises Valley National Bancorp stock price target on NII outlook

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Truist raises Valley National Bancorp stock price target on NII outlook

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Stifel raises Gaming and Leisure price target to $50 on guidance

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Stifel raises Gaming and Leisure price target to $50 on guidance

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'Finfluencers' draw ASIC's ire

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'Finfluencers' draw ASIC's ire

Australia’s peak corporate regulator has issued notices to four finfluencers who it says were providing unlicensed financial advice or engaging in deceptive conduct.

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DB Realty, Unitech stocks rose after top executives granted bail in 2G scam

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The stocks of DB Realty and Unitech rose after top executives of these companies were granted bail in the 2G scam case. The DB Realty stock has risen 40%, while Unitech gained 4%. However, some of the intrinsic problems which plague these companies, and uncertainty over the outcome of the 2G scam case may prevent any major appreciation in the stock.

Scrapping of projects involving the government, delayed execution and difficulty in securing approvals for new projects – DB Realty has seen it all. The company did not launch any new projects in the September quarter and sold around 50-75% of its existing seven projects. Even the analyst community has washed its hands of the stock with most brokerages discontinuing their coverage on the stock.

The company’s net sales for the first half year ended September are down by 36%, while its net profit dropped by 76% during the same period. However, the company is extinguishing its debt by selling non-core assets.

At the end of the September quarter, the company managed to reduce its debt from Rs600 crore a year ago to Rs 230 crore. It is sitting on a substantial pileup of TDR (transfer of development rights), which can be realised to further boost cash flows of the company. However, the outcome of the 2G scam case on its promoters will weigh heavily on the business prospects of the company which has its projects predominantly in Mumbai.

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Unitech is the second big real estate company to be impacted because of the alleged involvement of its top deck in the 2G scam. Besides the problems associated with all real estate companies, there are other challenges.


For instance, the company was at the receiving end of shareholders’ ire at its annual general meeting as they refused to approve a resolution to pay dividend on equity shares for the fiscal 2011. The company’s net sales and earnings have dropped by 17% and 45% respectively for the first half of this fiscal.
However, the business model continues to remain strong. Unitech has a presence in the affordable and mid-income housing segment which enables it to generate cash flows. It has been launching new projects, although the scale of execution is slow. Despite lower revenue recognition, it has managed to lower its debt through internal cash accruals.

It has an outstanding net debt of Rs 5,144 crore and a land bank of close to 7,000 acres with an average cost of acquisition of land of around Rs 250 per square feet. Despite strong fundamentals, the loss of credibility and uncertainty over the 2G probe will restrict any major upside in the stock. The stock continues to trade at a significant discount to its land value that analysts estimate to be at Rs 60.

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Betsson AB (publ) 2026 Q1 – Results – Earnings Call Presentation (OTCMKTS:BTSNY) 2026-04-24

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OneWater Marine Inc. (ONEW) Q1 2026 Earnings Call Transcript

This article was written by

Seeking Alpha’s transcripts team is responsible for the development of all of our transcript-related projects. We currently publish thousands of quarterly earnings calls per quarter on our site and are continuing to grow and expand our coverage. The purpose of this profile is to allow us to share with our readers new transcript-related developments. Thanks, SA Transcripts Team

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UK retail sales bounce back to growth as motorists stock up on fuel

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Fuel stockpiling linked to the Iran war drove a surge in demand, according to the ONS

A big demand for petrol helped drive up retail sales last month, ONS figures have shown

A big demand for petrol helped drive up retail sales last month, ONS figures have shown(Image: Getty Images)

UK retail sales bounced back to growth last month, driven by motorists filling up their tanks as fuel prices surged due to the Iran conflict, according to official figures.

The Office for National Statistics (ONS) reported that the total volume of retail sales, which measures the quantity purchased, increased by 0.7% in March.

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This compared with a 0.6% decline in February, which was revised marginally lower.

The latest figure also exceeded expectations, with economists having forecast a 0.1% drop for the month.

Statisticians said March’s rise was primarily fuelled by a surge in demand for petrol, which saw sales volumes leap by 6.1% for the month, the highest level since April 2021.

They pointed out that this was particularly linked to a brief period, lasting less than a week, of exceptionally high sales as developing geopolitical tensions in the Middle East triggered a sharp increase in forecourt prices.

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The value of fuel sales, representing the amount of money spent, climbed 11.6% amid the spike in petrol and diesel costs.

Recent data from the RAC reveals that petrol prices have climbed by 18.5% to 157.34 pence per litre, as recorded on Wednesday.

Meanwhile, diesel has risen 33.4% to an average of 189.88 pence per litre.

Elsewhere, clothing retailers also enjoyed a strong month, with sales volumes across the sector growing by 1.2% in March thanks to a lift from improved weather conditions.

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Technology stores also witnessed sales growth after benefiting from new product launches. Food sales, however, proved something of a weak spot, dipping by 0.8% over the month.

The ONS reported that overall retail sales volumes climbed 1.6% across the first three months of 2026, with the sector also buoyed by strong growth in January.

ONS senior statistician Hannah Finselbach said: “Retail sales rose in the three months to March, with commercial art galleries doing well earlier in the quarter and sales in beauty products stores rising as retailers reported launching new collections.

“Motor fuel sales were up on the quarter, with retailers commenting that many motorists had been filling up their tanks in March following the start of conflict in the Middle East.”

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Elliott Jordan-Doak, senior UK economist at Pantheon Macroeconomics, said: “The first batch of hard data on consumers’ spending since the start of the Iran war was better than expected.

“Granted, stocking up on motor fuels drove headline sales higher, but even excluding petrol retail sales volumes nudged up showing that households largely brushed off the initial shock of higher energy prices.”

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Meghan Markle Shares Heartfelt Australia Tour Moments as Sussexes Spark Royal Debate

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Prince Harry and wife Meghan Markle were involved in a "near catastrophic car chase" involving paparazzi in New York late on May 16, 2023, a spokesperson for the couple said May 17

LOS ANGELES — Meghan Markle has returned to California after a whirlwind four-day visit to Australia with Prince Harry, sharing never-before-seen footage of their trip and drawing both praise for community engagement and sharp criticism over the quasi-royal nature of the tour.

The Duke and Duchess of Sussex touched down in Sydney earlier this month for their first visit to Australia since 2018. The trip blended philanthropy, public appearances and subtle brand promotion, with large crowds greeting the couple at several stops despite pre-tour debate about the visit’s value to the country.

Prince Harry and wife Meghan Markle were involved in a "near catastrophic car chase" involving paparazzi in New York late on May 16, 2023, a spokesperson for the couple said May 17
Meghan Markle & Prince Harry
IBTimes US

Meghan, 44, posted a heartfelt Instagram reel highlighting moments from the tour, including walks near the Sydney Opera House, interactions with locals and a warm homecoming where their children Archie and Lilibet greeted them with a “welcome home” banner. The video captured candid scenes that fans described as authentic and joyful.

One standout clip showed Meghan offering marriage advice to a bride-to-be during a visit to Bondi Beach lifeguards. Speaking to fan Ellie via her father, the Duchess emphasized that “the marriage is more important than the wedding,” drawing from her own experience approaching her eighth wedding anniversary with Harry on May 19.

The couple paid respects to victims of the Bondi stabbing attack, meeting survivors and first responders in an emotional tribute to the 15 people killed. They also attended charity events and community gatherings, with Harry participating in initiatives tied to his Invictus Games work.

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Meghan made a high-profile appearance as a guest judge on MasterChef Australia, earning praise from a former producer for her professionalism, conciseness and charm on set. The episode generated significant buzz and aligned with her lifestyle brand interests.

The tour has ignited intense discussion. Supporters celebrated the couple’s ability to draw crowds and connect with Australians independently, with some outlets framing it as a “powerful message” of self-reliance without palace support. Critics, including commentators like Piers Morgan and Sky News contributors, labeled the trip “tone deaf,” “narcissistic” and a “faux royal tour,” accusing the Sussexes of monetizing their titles while defying the late Queen Elizabeth II’s wishes for them to step back fully.

Analysts noted Meghan’s strategic trademark filing for her As Ever lifestyle brand in Australia shortly before the visit, fueling speculation about future commercial expansion Down Under. The couple has faced ongoing scrutiny over perceived half-in, half-out royal activities despite their 2020 departure from senior roles.

Insiders report behind-the-scenes pressure and discussions about potentially reintegrating Harry and Meghan into some form of royal life, though sources close to the palace describe such ideas as “worrying” and unlikely to materialize. King Charles III continues to navigate complex family dynamics amid health challenges and broader monarchy modernization efforts.

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Upon returning home, Meghan shared additional personal touches, including family moments and reflections on the trip. The couple’s children reportedly prepared a special welcome, underscoring the priority they place on family life in Montecito.

The Australia visit fits into a busier 2026 for the Sussexes. Meghan continues building As Ever, recently sharing New Year reset rituals and maintaining a lower public profile on certain projects after reported shifts with Netflix. Harry focuses on philanthropic endeavors, including veterans’ causes.

Public opinion remains deeply divided. Polls and social media sentiment show strong support among younger audiences and in Commonwealth nations, while traditional royal watchers express skepticism about the couple’s independent path. The tour has reignited conversations about the future of the monarchy and the Sussexes’ place within — or outside — it.

Meghan has spoken openly in recent years about the intense scrutiny she faces, once describing herself as one of the most trolled people globally. During the Australia trip, she addressed social media harms in Melbourne alongside Harry, drawing from personal experience.

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Supporters highlight the couple’s continued charity work, environmental advocacy and efforts to create a new model of public life. Critics point to perceived contradictions between privacy requests and high-profile activities. The debate shows little sign of quieting as the Sussexes maintain a visible presence on the global stage.

As they settle back into life in California, Meghan and Harry face a packed schedule. Future plans reportedly include more international engagements, brand growth and family milestones. The couple celebrated their anniversary privately last year and is expected to mark this year’s quietly while navigating public interest.

The Australia tour, despite mixed reviews, demonstrated the Sussexes’ enduring draw. Large crowds, media coverage and brand opportunities underscored their continued relevance eight years after stepping back from royal duties. Whether this model sustains long-term remains a central question in royal commentary.

For now, Meghan Markle appears focused on balancing motherhood, entrepreneurship and advocacy. Her latest social media posts emphasize gratitude for the Australian welcome and excitement for future projects. As one of the most discussed women in the world, every move generates headlines — a reality that shows no signs of changing in 2026.

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