Science & Environment
Headwinds from Middle East, tailwinds from China
Pedestrians holding Chinese flags outside a Chanel SA store on Nanjing East Road in Shanghai, China, on Wednesday, Oct. 2, 2024.
Qilai Shen | Bloomberg | Getty Images
This report is from today’s CNBC Daily Open, our international markets newsletter. CNBC Daily Open brings investors up to speed on everything they need to know, no matter where they are. Like what you see? You can subscribe here.
What you need to know today
Geopolitical uncertainty
Major U.S. indexes all closed slightly above the flatline on Wednesday. Oil prices continued rising, helping energy stocks outperform. Nike fell 6.8% and Tesla lost 3.5%. Europe’s regional Stoxx 600 inched up 0.05%. Defense stocks like Saab and Thales rose in response to the escalating conflict in the Middle East.
OpenAI’s $157 billion valuation
OpenAI has raised $6.6 billion in its latest funding round, putting it at a valuation of $157 billion. The round was led by Thrive Capital – which planned to invest $1 billion – and included participation from Microsoft, Nvidia and Softbank, said a person with knowledge of the matter.
Tesla’s deliveries missed expectations
Tesla stocks fell 3.5% after it reported deliveries that missed expectations. In the third quarter of 2024, Tesla delivered 462,890 vehicles, slightly below the 463,310 estimate compiled by FactSet StreetAccount. Tesla doesn’t report sales numbers for specific models or regions, so deliveries are the closest approximation to them.
More-than-expected private jobs added
The U.S. private sector added 143,000 jobs in September, according to a report by payrolls processing firm ADP. That’s more than the 128,000 predicted by economists polled by Dow Jones and higher than August’s upwardly revised figure of 103,000. It’s a sign that the labor market isn’t as flabby as some had feared.
[PRO] October’s volatility has begun
The S&P 500 moves an average of more than 1% in either direction each day in October, according to CNBC Pro analysis, based on FactSet data going back to 1950. And October is already living up to that reputation, writes CNBC Pro’s Fred Imbert. Here’s how one Wall Street analyst is preparing for the historically choppy month.
The bottom line
The nature of today’s globalized world means that the manufacturing process of one smartphone may take it to more places around the world than I will ever be.
It may begin with designing a blueprint in the U.S., sourcing minerals from China, manufacturing semiconductors in Taiwan, assembling the product in India and working with the European Union to meet standards.
But supply lines are so intricately connected that the moment one link in the chain snaps, the whole process can be interrupted.
That’s why the recent tension in the Middle East – already simmering for a year, now bubbling slightly more furiously – has weighed on investor sentiment across the world. The conflict’s effects are magnified because the region is the epicenter of oil production, and oil is, well, literally the fuel for the global economy.
Furthermore, producing oil is not like manufacturing a smartphone, in which a company can shift assembly to another country. Either there is or isn’t oil in the land. Oil suppliers are bound to where they are.
You’d expect that markets would have been shaken by that threat to the global economy. But all major U.S. indexes managed to close just a tad above the flatline. The S&P 500 was mostly unchanged, the Dow Jones Industrial Average eked out a 0.09% gain and the Nasdaq Composite ticked up 0.08%.
Headwinds blowing from Middle East might have been tempered by optimism in China.
Lifted by Beijing’s recent announcement of economic stimulus, Chinese stocks have been on a tear. That’s caused U.S. exchange-traded funds that track Chinese stocks to rally, helping to keep the U.S. market afloat amid worries over the escalating Middle East conflict.
Indeed, U.S. stocks tend to benefit whenever the Chinese government unleashes economic stimulus and credit expansion, according to Ryan Grabinski, strategist at Strategas Securities.
Here’s the flipside of globalization: Negative developments in one part of the world may weigh down others, but positive ones will radiate optimism beyond their origin.
– CNBC’s Hakyung Kim, Yun Li, Alex Harring and Samantha Subin contributed to this story.
Science & Environment
Nvidia bucks the market, and oil jumps on fears of how Israel may respond to Iran’s missile attack
Every weekday, the CNBC Investing Club with Jim Cramer releases the Homestretch — an actionable afternoon update, just in time for the last hour of trading on Wall Street.
Science & Environment
WTI rises as traders fear Middle East war
U.S. crude oil prices rose nearly 2% on Thursday for a third consecutive session of gains, as the market braces for Israel to retaliate against Iran.
The risk of oil supply disruptions increases as fighting in the Middle East intensifies, but OPEC+ is sitting on a large amount of spare crude that could step into the breach, according to Claudio Galimberti, chief economist at Rystad Energy.
U.S. crude oil has gained 5% this week.
Here are Thursday’s energy prices:
- West Texas Intermediate November contract: $71.53 per barrel, up $1.46, or 2.08%. Year to date, U.S. crude oil is nearly flat.
- Brent December contract: $75.29 per barrel, up $1.39, or 1.88%. Year to date, the global benchmark has fallen more than 2%.
- RBOB Gasoline November contract: $2.0242 per gallon, up 1.93%. Year to date, gasoline has pulled back nearly 4%.
- Natural Gas November contract: $2.0243 per thousand cubic feet, up 1.98%. Year to date, gas has gained more than 16%.
“This spare capacity is for now preventing runaway prices amid one of the deepest and most pervasive crises in the Middle East in the past four decades,” Galimberti told clients in a Thursday note.
OPEC+ spare capacity would be sufficient to cover a disruption to Iran’s exports if Israel strikes the Islamic Republic’s oil infrastructure as retaliation for Tehran’s ballistic missile attack, said Bjarne Schieldrop, chief commodities analyst at the Swedish bank SEB.
But traders would begin to worry about supply disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz, Schieldrop said. “That would add a significant risk premium to oil,” he told CNBC’s “Street Signs Europe.”
As a consequence, oil prices could surge to $200 per barrel if Israel hits Iran’s oil infrastructure, he said.
Science & Environment
Oil prices could soar if Israel targets Iran’s energy infrastructure
A general view of Isfahan Refinery, one of the largest refineries in Iran and is considered as the first refinery in the country in terms of diversity of petroleum products in Isfahan, Iran on November 08, 2023.
Anadolu | Anadolu | Getty Images
Oil markets are being too complacent given the risk of major supply disruptions in the Middle East, analysts told CNBC on Thursday, with one warning that crude futures could rally to more than $200 a barrel.
It comes amid speculation that Israel could be planning to launch a retaliatory attack on Iran targeting its oil infrastructure — a prospect which would likely deliver a rude awakening to bearish energy market participants.
Iran, which is a member of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC), is a major player in the global oil market. So much so, it is estimated that as much as 4% of the world’s supply could be at risk if Iran’s oil infrastructure becomes a target for Israel.
Speaking to CNBC’s “Street Signs Europe” on Thursday, Bjarne Schieldrop, chief commodities analyst at Swedish bank SEB, said escalating tensions in the Middle East could have dramatic consequences for the market.
“If … you really took out the oil installations in Iran, force down the exports by 2 million barrels, then the next question in the market will be what will happen now in the Strait of Hormuz? That, of course, would add a significant risk premium to oil,” Schieldrop said.
Asked the extent to which oil prices could spike in such a scenario, Schieldrop replied, “If you take out installations in Iran, easily you go to $200-plus.”
Situated between Iran and Oman, the Strait of Hormuz is a narrow but strategically important waterway that links crude producers in the Middle East with key markets across the world.
Oil prices have climbed more than 4% since the start of the week as traders have closely monitored elevated geopolitical risks in the Middle East.
International benchmark Brent crude futures with December expiry traded more than 2.1% higher at $75.50 per barrel on Thursday, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude futures stood at $71.75, over 2.3% higher for the session.
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu on Tuesday pledged to respond with force to Iran’s ballistic missile attack, insisting Tehran would “pay” for what he described as a “big mistake.” His comments came shortly after Iran fired more than 180 ballistic missiles at Israel.
Speaking during a visit to Qatar on Thursday, Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian said his country was “not in pursuit of war with Israel.” He warned, however, of a forceful response from Tehran to any further Israeli actions.
Maxar overview satellite imagery of the Fortune Galaxy Mahshahr Oil Terminal in Iran.
Maxar | Maxar | Getty Images
“It all depends on how the conflict escalates further and I think it goes without saying that Israel is going to retaliate after the latest Iranian attack — and it’s going to happen within, like, five days probably, before the October 7 one-year anniversary,” SEB’s Schieldrop said.
“Is it going to be … a feeble attack, like we saw in April and then all quieting down? Or is it going to be a more violent attack going after military installations, potentially nuclear installations and oil installations are also on the table. This is what is bugging the market at the moment,” he added.
Energy market complacency?
Energy analysts have warned about a prevailing sense of bearish sentiment in the market, even as flaring tensions in the Middle East threaten to reach a new boiling point.
“I do think, from an oil market point of view, the market is so complacent right now,” Amrita Sen, founder and director of research at Energy Aspects, told CNBC’s “Squawk Box Europe” on Thursday.
“And look, since 2019, since Abqaiq, geopolitical risks haven’t resulted in oil supply losses.
She said that since 2019 — when Saudi Arabia shut down half its oil production a drone attack on its Abqaiq oil processing facility — geopolitical risks haven’t actually resulted in supply losses.
“That’s why the market is jaded,” she continued. “It was Abqaiq, it was Russia-Ukraine, but I do think this is a little bit different.”
The 2019 attack by Yemen’s Houthi rebels on Saudi Aramco facilities prompted a sharp rally in oil prices at the time.
Asked about the prospect of Israel launching retaliatory strikes on Iran’s energy infrastructure, Sen said the U.S. was likely to be unequivocal in its diplomatic messages to the Jewish state.
“That is definitely something every side is talking about, right? The U.S. is involved in this. I don’t think we can forget the fact that we have U.S. elections coming up in days, so I think the message from them very clearly is do not hit energy infrastructure. Equally, do not hit the nuclear facilities,” Sen said.
Meanwhile, John Evans, analyst at oil broker PVM, said in a research note published Thursday that historically, oil prices would have shown a “very different and violent reaction” to missile strikes and bombings in multiple countries in the Middle East.”
“Needless to say, anything around Israel pulls on historical impassioned attitudes, but in oil terms, the involvement of the more influential Iran ought to bring favour for bulls,” Evans said.
“Expansion of war and its damage will need to be proven before oil market participants will shake off the over-riding presence of scepticism,” he added.
Science & Environment
The asteroid that killed the dinosaurs was not alone
The huge asteroid that hit Earth and wiped out the dinosaurs 66 million years ago was not alone, scientists have confirmed.
A second, smaller space rock smashed into the sea off the coast of West Africa creating a large crater during the same era.
It would have been a “catastrophic event”, the scientists say, causing a tsunami at least 800m high to tear across the Atlantic ocean.
Dr Uisdean Nicholson from Heriot-Watt University first found the Nadir crater in 2022, but a cloud of uncertainty hung over how it was really formed.
Now Dr Nicholson and his colleagues are sure that the 9km depression was caused by an asteroid hurtling into the seabed.
They cannot date the event exactly, or say whether it came before or after the asteroid which left the 180km-wide Chicxulub crater in Mexico. That one ended the reign of the dinosaurs.
But they say the smaller rock also came at the end of the Cretaceous period when they went extinct. As it crashed into Earth’s atmosphere, it would have formed a fireball.
“Imagine the asteroid was hitting Glasgow and you’re in Edinburgh, around 50 km away. The fireball would be about 24 times the size of the Sun in the sky – enough to set trees and plants on fire in Edinburgh,” Dr Nicholson says.
An extremely loud air blast would have followed, before seismic shaking about the size of a magnitude 7 earthquake.
Huge amounts of water probably left the seabed, and later cascaded back down creating unique imprints on the floor.
It is unusual for such large asteroids to crash out of our solar system on course for our planet within a short time of each other.
But the researchers don’t know why two hit Earth close together.
The asteroid that created the Nadir crater measured around 450-500m wide, and scientists think it hit Earth at about 72,000km/h.
The nearest humans have come to this scale of event was the Tunguska event in 1908 when a 50-metre asteroid exploded in the skies above Siberia.
The Nadir asteroid was about the size of Bennu, which is currently the most hazardous object orbiting near Earth.
Scientists say the most probable date that Bennu could hit Earth is 24 September 2182, according to Nasa. But it is still just a probability of 1 in 2,700.
There has never been an asteroid impact of this size in human history, and scientists normally have to study eroded craters on Earth or images of craters on other planets.
To further understand the Nadir crater, Dr Nicholson and team analysed high-resolution 3D data from a geophysical company called TGS.
Most craters are eroded but this one was well-preserved, meaning the scientists could look further into the rock levels.
“This is the first time that we’ve ever been able to see inside an impact crater like this – it’s really exciting,” says Dr Nicholson, adding there are just 20 marine craters in the world but none have been studied in detail like this.
The findings are reported in Nature Communications Earth & Environment.
Science & Environment
Buffeted by Middle East, propelled by China
Customers at a restaurants on Nanjing East Road in Shanghai, China, on Wednesday, Oct. 2, 2024.
Qilai Shen | Bloomberg | Getty Images
This report is from today’s CNBC Daily Open, our international markets newsletter. CNBC Daily Open brings investors up to speed on everything they need to know, no matter where they are. Like what you see? You can subscribe here.
What you need to know today
Geopolitical uncertainty
Major U.S. indexes all closed slightly above the flatline on Wednesday. Oil prices continued rising, helping energy stocks outperform. Nike fell 6.8% and Tesla lost 3.5%. Asia-Pacific stocks traded mixed Thursday. Japan’s Nikkei 225 rose about 2% as the yen slipped, while Hong Kong’s Hang Seng index dropped around 1.4% after enjoying a strong rally on Wednesday.
Yen slides on Ishiba’s dovish comments
The Japanese yen fell to as low as 147.15 against the U.S. dollar during Asia trading hours today on dovish comments from new Japanese Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba. “I do not believe that we are in an environment that would require us to raise interest rates further,” Ishiba said Wednesday. Analysts, however, think the Bank of Japan will still raise rates by early 2025.
OpenAI’s $157 billion valuation
OpenAI has raised $6.6 billion in its latest funding round, putting it at a valuation of $157 billion. The round was led by Thrive Capital – which planned to invest $1 billion – and included participation from Microsoft, Nvidia and Softbank, said a person with knowledge of the matter.
Behind India’s booming market
India Nifty 50 index is up 18.7% year to date, hitting record highs on its way there. Several factors are driving its rally: public infrastructure investments by the government, companies diversifying their supply chains away from China to India, healthy economic growth, a growing population and lower U.S. Federal Reserve interest rates.
[PRO] Opportunities amid disruptions
Strikes by longshoremen at U.S. coastal ports are only the latest in a series of supply chain disruptions we’ve experienced in recent years. While those interruptions are generally bad for the global economy by increasing shipment prices and delivery times, Goldman Sachs thinks some stocks can benefit from such events.
The bottom line
The nature of today’s globalized world means that the manufacturing process of one smartphone may take it to more places around the world than I will ever be.
It may begin with designing a blueprint in the U.S., sourcing minerals from China, manufacturing semiconductors in Taiwan, assembling the product in India and working with the European Union to meet standards.
But supply lines are so intricately connected that the moment one link in the chain snaps, the whole process can be interrupted.
That’s why the recent tension in the Middle East – already simmering for a year, now bubbling slightly more furiously – has weighed on investor sentiment across the world. The conflict’s effects are magnified because the region is the epicenter of oil production, and oil is, well, literally the fuel for the global economy.
Furthermore, producing oil is not like manufacturing a smartphone, in which a company can shift assembly to another country. Either there is or isn’t oil in the land. Oil suppliers are bound to where they are.
You’d expect that markets would have been shaken by that threat to the global economy. But all major U.S. indexes managed to close just a tad above the flatline. The S&P 500 was mostly unchanged, the Dow Jones Industrial Average eked out a 0.09% gain and the Nasdaq Composite ticked up 0.08%.
Headwinds blowing from Middle East might have been tempered by optimism in China.
Lifted by Beijing’s recent announcement of economic stimulus, Chinese stocks have been on a tear. That’s caused U.S. exchange-traded funds that track Chinese stocks to rally, helping to keep the U.S. market afloat amid worries over the escalating Middle East conflict.
Indeed, U.S. stocks tend to benefit whenever the Chinese government unleashes economic stimulus and credit expansion, according to Ryan Grabinski, strategist at Strategas Securities.
Here’s the flipside of globalization: Negative developments in one part of the world may weigh down others, but positive ones will radiate optimism beyond their origin.
– CNBC’s Hakyung Kim, Yun Li, Alex Harring and Samantha Subin contributed to this story.
Science & Environment
Israel retaliation may target Iran oil infrastructure, analysts say
The Iranian flag above the new Phase 3 facility at the Persian Gulf Star gas condensate refinery in Bandar Abbas, Iran, in 2019.
Ali Mohammadi | Bloomberg | Getty Images
The oil market faced a rude awakening this week after Iran launched a large-scale ballistic missile attack against Israel, briefly sending crude prices more than 5% higher Tuesday after a period of sleepy trading.
For months now, traders have largely dismissed the risk of a supply disruption in the Middle East. Instead, bearish sentiment swept the market in September as investors increasingly fear a surplus next year due to softening demand in China and increased production from OPEC+.
The expanding war in the Middle East, however, has reached a new boiling point as Israel has vowed a “painful” response to Iran’s attack. The government of Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu could take aim at the Islamic Republic’s oil infrastructure in retaliation, geopolitical and crude market analysts say.
“There has been a lot of complacency about this war,” Helima Croft, head of global commodity strategy at RBC Capital Markets, said on CNBC’s “The Exchange” Tuesday shortly after the attack. “We do need to think about a scenario where Iranian oil supplies are at risk.”
Israel could also take aim at Iran’s nuclear facilities, but those buildings are hardened, making them difficult to destroy, said retired U.S. Army Colonel Jack Jacobs. A strike on those facilities could trigger an even larger ballistic missile attack by Iran that would be difficult to defend against, he said.
“What is really on the table now and is more likely is an attack on oil facilities,” Jacobs said on CNBC’s “Squawk Box” Wednesday morning.
OPEC member Iran is producing at a five-year high of more than 3 million barrels per day, Croft said. U.S. intelligence in the past has highlighted the potential risk to Iran’s Kharg Island oil terminals, through which 90% of the country’s crude exports pass, according to a Tuesday note from RBC Capital Markets.
“The next turn in this retaliation spiral may very well involve oil – via the degrading of Iran’s oil capacity
or Iran’s proxies attacking oil and gas shipping from the Persian Gulf,” Piper Sandler analysts told clients in a Wednesday research note.
The impact on the oil market would depend on the damage done to Iranian crude exports and how the situation escalates from there, said Bob McNally, president of Rapidan Energy. If Iran’s oil exports of around 1.8 million bpd were taken offline, prices would likely jump by at least $5 per barrel, McNally said.
Iran, in turn, would likely retaliate by threatening the 13 million bpd of crude and 5 million bpd of products that are produced in and flow through the Persian Gulf, McNally said. An escalation on this scale could send oil prices higher in increments of $10 per barrel, the analyst said.
“These are dangerous times for oil markets at the moment,” Andy Critchlow, EMEA head of news at S&P Global Commodity Insights, told CNBC’s “Street Signs” Europe Wednesday. “It’s hard for anyone in the market to really gauge the direction when you look at the amount of geopolitical risk that is out there.”
OPEC, however, has 5.6 million bpd of spare capacity that can be brought back to the market with Saudi Arabia keen to bring as much of its oil back to the market as possible, Critchlow said.
“Any disruption to Iranian supplies to the international market I think could be made up by spare OPEC capacity and it’s idled oil at the moment,” the analyst said.
McNally, however, said this oil won’t mean much if there is a major disruption in the Persian Gulf. “Spare capacity won’t help because it’s mostly bottled up inside the Strait of Hormuz,” the analyst said.
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