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Nifty under pressure; 23,000 break sparks further concern: Analysts

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Nifty under pressure; 23,000 break sparks further concern: Analysts
Nifty could continue to trend lower and experience sharp swings this week as geopolitical tensions in West Asia persist, with no clarity on a definitive resolution yet. Nifty 50 once again closed below 23,000 on Friday, and trading below this level could drag the index to 22,500–22,400 zone, according to analysts.

DHARMESH SHAH

HEAD OF TECHNICAL RESEARCH, ICICI SECURITIES

Where is Nifty headed?
For a meaningful pullback to materialise, Nifty must reclaim its short-term moving average (23,800) and establish a ‘higher high–higher low’ pattern on weekly chart in the upcoming truncated week. Failure to do so means the possibility of a prolonged correction cannot be ruled out, wherein critical long-term support is placed in 21,900–21,700 zone.

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Our support is based on the following observations: a) Past 25 years’ data suggest that there have been eight occasions where bull market corrections were arrested, with an average decline of 17%. b) Since 2003, on multiple occasions, Nifty has respected the long-term 200-week EMA (barring 2008 and 2020), currently placed at 21,930. c) The April 2025 panic low is placed at 21,743. d) Whenever 85% of Nifty 500 universe trades below their 50- and 200-SMAs, and the net daily advance-decline suggests that only 30 stocks are in positive territory, it signals capitulation extremes. Post these extremes, the index has delivered a median rally of 23% in the subsequent 6–12 months.


Trading Strategies: Option Strategy for April
Buy 1 lot of 23,800 CE @ 322
Buy 1 lot of 21,800 PE @ 379
Sell 2 lots of 24,100 CE @ 230
Sell 2 lots of 21,500 PE @ 311

Total inflow is 381 points (Rs 24,765 per lot), which is the minimum profit if the index stays between 21,800 and 23,800. The maximum profit is 650 points (Rs 42,000 per lot) if the index closes at 24,100 or 21,500.

The breakeven range is 20,800 on the downside and 24,800 on the upside. As long as Nifty trades within this range, the strategy remains profitable, with gains between Rs 24,765 and Rs 42,000 per lot. The approximate margin required is Rs 2,20,000.

Screenshot 2026-03-30 055226Agencies

TOP PICKS FOR THE WEEK
Bharti Airtel: Buy at Rs 1,790–1,845, Stop Loss at Rs 1,684, Target: Rs 2,032

Stock has rebounded from its key 20-month EMA, which has held as support in past corrections. After an ~18% fall over four months, it is showing a familiar correction pattern, offering a favourable risk-reward buying opportunity.

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DLF: Sell at Rs 523–535, Stop Loss at Rs 546, Target: Rs 502.

Stock has been trading below all its key moving averages, indicating a negative short-term bias. Structurally, the stock has witnessed a multi-month support breakdown, with a lower high–lower low structure on the weekly time frame.

RAHUL SHARMA
HEAD – TECHNICAL & DERIVATIVE RESEARCH, JM FINANCIAL SERVICES

Where is Nifty headed?
Nifty formed back-to-back doji candles on weekly charts, indicating indecision. Friday’s sell-off came on higher-than-average volumes, with FII shorts in the index at their highest level (2.79 lakh short) since the war began. India VIX has risen to sub-27 levels, suggesting continued gap openings. The daily trend remains down, with significant short additions seen on Friday in Nifty, Bank Nifty, and Midcap Nifty futures. Immediate support is at 22,471, below which the index could test 22,000. Resistance is placed at 22,900 and 23,200.

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Trading Strategies: Look to add Nifty ATM puts of next week’s expiry on a bounce back around 23,000 for downside targets of 22,470 and lower. Investors can look to add Nifty ETFs in the range of 21,700–22,000 if the correction extends this week.

TOP STOCKS FOR THE WEEK
Reliance Industries: Sell at CMP Rs 1,348, Stop Loss at Rs 1,380, Target: Rs 1,310/1,280

A bearish breakdown was seen on daily charts on Friday, along with a rise in volumes.

Bharti Airtel: Buy at CMP Rs 1,843, Stop Loss at Rs 1,795, Target: Rs 1,900/1,950

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A bullish divergence was seen on daily charts relative to Nifty in the last two weeks, along with a rise in volumes on Friday.

DHUPESH DHAMEJA
DERIVATIVES ANALYST, SAMCO SECURITIES

Where is Nifty headed?
The index remains in a lower high–lower low formation, with rebounds being sold into and the short-term trend firmly bearish. Nifty faced rejection near its 10-DEMA and has breached the 22,950–23,000 support zone, now acting as resistance. Weak momentum (RSI below 40) and elevated India VIX near 26.8 point to continued volatility and downside risk.

As long as Nifty stays below 23,000, the bias remains negative with targets of 22,500 and 22,200. A sustained move above 23,000– 23,100 could trigger short covering towards 23,400–23,500.

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Trading Strategies: Adopt a sell-on-rise approach near 22,900–23,000 with a stoploss above 23,100, aiming for 22,600–22,500 on the downside. At the same time, options traders can deploy a Bear Call Spread (sell 22,500 CE and buy 25,800 CE of the 07 April 2026 expiry) to benefit from overhead resistance and limited risk exposure.

TOP STOCKS FOR THE WEEK
Ather Energy: Buy at CMP Rs 796, Stop Loss at Rs 748, Target: Rs 880

Ather Energy is showing strong bullish momentum after breaking above its previous all-time high zone of Rs 780–790 and hitting fresh highs, signalling trend continuation. The stock continues to form a higher high–higher low structure, indicating sustained buying interest.

Emcure Pharma: Buy at CMP Rs 1,652, Stop Loss at Rs 1,540, Target: Rs 1,840

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Stock shows a strong bullish continuation after breaking above the Rs 1,580 resistance, a key supply zone. It continues to form a higher high–higher low structure, indicating a strengthening trend and accumulation. The breakout is backed by improving participation, signalling demand-driven price action and reinforcing the uptrend.

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German infrastructure fund misses its spending targets, Handelsblatt says

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Wall Street Brunch: Shrodinger’s IPO (undefined:QNT)

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Wall Street Brunch: Shrodinger's IPO (undefined:QNT)

3D illustration of a working quantum computer. Quantum computing concept

adventtr/E+ via Getty Images

Listen below or on the go via Apple Podcasts and Spotify

Quantinuum attracts strong demand ahead of debut. (0:17) Broadcom earnings focus shifts to accelerating AI chip demand. (1:09) May jobs report tests outlook for a cooling labor market. (1:58)

The following is an abridged transcript:

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Quantum computing firm Quantinuum (QNT) is set to go public this week, with reports that the offering is already oversubscribed by a double-digit multiple of the shares available.

The company, which is owned by Honeywell (HON), plans to offer 21.05 million shares at between $45 and $50 each. At the top end of that range, Quantinuum would raise about $1.05 billion and be valued at roughly $13 billion.

The stock is expected to trade on the Nasdaq under the ticker symbol QNT.

Quantinuum generated 2025 revenue of $30.9 million, up from $23 million in 2024, while its net loss widened to $192.6 million as the company continued investing in growth and commercialization.

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The company recently signed an agreement with the U.S. government to receive research and development funding aimed at addressing technology bottlenecks in fault-tolerant trapped-ion quantum computers.

On the earnings front, Broadcom (AVGO) highlights the week when it reports Wednesday after the close.

Wall Street expects EPS of $2.40 on revenue of about $22 billion.

Analysts have turned increasingly bullish ahead of the report.

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Oppenheimer expects a beat-and-raise quarter driven by AI demand and says Broadcom remains the number-two AI accelerator player behind Nvidia (NVDA).

Susquehanna also raised its price target ahead of results, citing continued momentum in Broadcom’s custom AI chips and networking business.

Analysts said AI revenue could exceed $100 billion in fiscal 2027 as customer demand continues to broaden.

Also on the earnings calendar, Hewlett Packard (HPE) and Credo Technology (CRDO) report Monday.

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Earnings spotlight: Tuesday: Palo Alto Networks (PANW) and Ulta Beauty (ULTA) are up Tuesday.

CrowdStrike (CRWD) and Medtronic (MDT) joing Broadcom on Wednesday.

Ciena (CIEN), Lululemon (LULU) and DocuSign (DOCU) weigh in on Thursday.

On the economic calendar, Friday’s jobs report is the main event.

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Economists expect 96,000 jobs to have been added in May, down from 115,000 in April, while the unemployment rate is expected to hold at 4.3%.

Average hourly earnings are forecast to rise 0.3% for the month.

Wells Fargo says the labor market remains stuck in a low-fire, low-hire environment that is no longer deteriorating, but isn’t showing meaningful improvement either.

In the news this weekend, Waymo unveiled its new Ojai robotaxi minivan, an all-electric vehicle designed specifically for autonomous ride-hailing rather than retail sales.

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The company says the vehicle is roomier, cheaper to operate and built around its sixth-generation self-driving system. Analysts say the lower operating costs could eventually help Waymo undercut human-driven ride-hailing services in some markets.

And Microsoft (MSFT) and Nvidia (NVDA) are expected to unveil the first Windows PCs powered by Nvidia chips as the primary processor at Computex and Microsoft’s Build conference this week.

The launch could mark a significant expansion of Nvidia’s push beyond AI servers and into the PC market.

And for income investors, McDonald’s (MCD) goes ex-dividend on Tuesday and pays out on June 16.

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Halliburton (HAL) goes ex-dividend on Wednesday with a June 24 payout date.

Cigna (CI) goes ex-dividend on Thursday and pays out on June 18.

And Western Digital (WDC) goes ex-dividend on Friday with a payout date of June 17.

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Berkshire Hathaway to acquire Taylor Morrison for $8.5 billion

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Berkshire Hathaway to buy US homebuilder Taylor Morrison for $8.5 billion

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Russia-appointed official says child killed, 11 injured in drone attack in Russian-held Kherson region

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International Countries Have Only Bought 10% Of Total New Debt Over 18 Months

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SchiffGold is a full-service, discount precious metals dealer specializing in investment-grade gold and silver bullion. We offer a range of related services, from vault storage partners to physical gold IRAs.

Renowned investor Peter Schiff founded SchiffGold in 2010 to provide a trustworthy source of bullion for his brokerage clients. Peter has always advised long-term investment in physical precious metals as an inflation-proof store of value. Unfortunately, he found far too many gold buyers were getting swindled by big companies pushing numismatics at high markups. SchiffGold is his answer — an honest gold dealer that sells only the most liquid bullion products in the world at the lowest possible prices.

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Taiwan Suspects Nvidia AI Chip Shipment Smuggled to China

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Taiwan Suspects Nvidia AI Chip Shipment Smuggled to China

Taiwan prosecutors suspect three individuals successfully smuggled at least one shipment of Nvidia AI chips to China. The suspects reportedly used deceptive methods in the transfer process, raising concerns over technology security and intellectual property violations. An investigation is ongoing to determine the full extent of the smuggling operation and potential regulatory breaches.


Authorities in Taiwan suspect that a shipment of Nvidia AI chips was smuggled into China, raising concerns about potential technology leaks and national security. The investigation was prompted after customs officials detected irregularities in the export documentation of the high-performance chips, which are crucial for artificial intelligence applications. These chips are highly sought after for their advanced capabilities and are often targeted for smuggling to benefit competitors or unauthorized entities.

The suspected smuggling operation highlights the growing complexities of international technology trade and security. Taiwan, a major hub for semiconductor manufacturing, closely monitors the export of sensitive technology to prevent misuse or unauthorized transfer. The government has vowed to strengthen controls and collaborate with international partners to prevent similar incidents in the future.

This incident underscores the broader geopolitical tensions surrounding technology and innovation. As countries compete for technological dominance, safeguarding intellectual property and preventing unauthorized exports become increasingly critical. Authorities continue to investigate the case, aiming to ensure the integrity of Taiwan’s high-tech industry and prevent technological espionage.

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