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MicroStrategy Explains What Happens First in a Bitcoin Collapse

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MicroStrategy Explains What Happens First in a Bitcoin Collapse

MicroStrategy (Strategy) released its Q4 2025 earnings report and, along with it, disclosed an extreme downside scenario that would begin to strain its Bitcoin treasury model.

The CEO’s remarks provided rare insight into how far the market could fall before the company’s capital structure comes under serious pressure.

MicroStrategy Finally Reveals What Would Be Its Breaking Point as Bitcoin Price Drops

During its latest earnings discussion, MicroStrategy CEO Phong Le said that a 90% decline in Bitcoin’s price to roughly $8,000 would mark the point where the firm’s Bitcoin reserves roughly equal its net debt.

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Bitcoin Price Performance. Source: TradingView

 At that level, the company would likely be unable to repay convertible debt using its BTC holdings alone. As a result, it may need to consider restructuring, issuing new equity, or raising additional debt over time.

Leadership emphasized that such a scenario is viewed as highly improbable and would unfold over several years, giving the firm time to respond if markets deteriorated significantly.

“In the extreme downside, if we were to have a 90% decline in Bitcoin price to $8,000, which is pretty hard to imagine, that is the point at which our BTC reserve equals our net debt and we’ll not be able to then pay off of our convertibles using our Bitcoin reserve and we’d either look at restructuring, issuing additional equity, issuing an additional debt. And let me remind you: this is over the next five years. Right, So I’m not really worried at this point in time, even with Bitcoin drops,” said Le.

Meanwhile, it is worth noting that Le’s remarks come only months after the Strategy executive admitted a situation that would compell the firm would sell Bitcoin. As BeInCrypto reported, Phong Le cited a Bitcoin sale trigger tied to mNAV and liquidity stress.

Speaking on What Bitcoin Did, CEO Phong Le outlined the precise trigger that would force a Bitcoin sale:

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  • First, the company’s stock must trade below 1x mNAV, meaning the market capitalization falls below the value of its Bitcoin holdings.
  • Second, MicroStrategy must be unable to raise new capital through equity or debt issuance. This would mean capital markets are closed or too expensive to access.

Therefore, the latest statement does not contradict Phong Le’s earlier position but adds another layer of risk.

Previously, a Bitcoin sale depended on stock trading below mNAV and capital markets’ closing. Now, he clarifies that in an extreme 90% crash, the immediate issue would be debt servicing, likely addressed first through restructuring or new financing—not necessarily selling Bitcoin.

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Massive Bitcoin Exposure Comes with Large Losses

Strategy remains the world’s largest corporate holder of Bitcoin, reporting 713,502 BTC as of early February 2026. The company acquired the holdings at a total cost of about $54.26 billion, according to its fourth-quarter financial results.

However, Bitcoin’s decline during the final months of 2025 significantly impacted the balance sheet. The firm reported $17.4 billion in unrealized digital-asset losses for the quarter and a net loss of $12.4 billion. This highlights the sensitivity of its financial performance to market swings.

At the same time, Strategy continued to raise substantial capital. The company said it raised $25.3 billion in 2025, making it one of the largest equity issuers in the US.

Meanwhile, they also reportedly built a $2.25 billion USD reserve designed to cover roughly two and a half years of dividend and interest obligations.

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Executives argue that these measures strengthen liquidity and provide flexibility, even during periods of market stress.

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Bitcoin Volatility Brings the Risk Into Focus

The disclosure comes amid heightened volatility in crypto markets. Bitcoin traded near $70,000 in early February before extending successive legs lower to an intraday low of $60,000 on February 6.  This shows how quickly price movements can reshape the outlook for highly leveraged treasury strategies.

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Strategy’s capital structure relies heavily on debt, preferred equity, and convertible instruments used to accumulate Bitcoin over multiple years.

While this approach has amplified gains during bull markets, it also magnifies losses during downturns, drawing increasing scrutiny from investors and analysts.

However, the company’s leadership maintains that the long-dated nature of much of its debt provides time to manage through cycles. This, they say, reduces the risk of forced liquidations in the near term.

Saylor Doubles Down on Long-Term Thesis

Elsewhere, executive chair Michael Saylor reiterated his conviction in Bitcoin despite recent losses, describing it as the “digital transformation of capital” and urging investors to “HODL.”

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Saylor and other executives argue that Bitcoin remains the hardest form of money and that the company’s long-term strategy is built around holding the asset indefinitely, rather than attempting to time market cycles.

The firm has also expanded its financial engineering efforts, including scaling its Digital Credit instruments and preferred equity offerings. According to management, these are designed to reduce volatility and diversify funding sources while continuing to accumulate Bitcoin.

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Investors Split on the Risks Ahead

Market reaction to the earnings disclosures and downside scenario has been mixed. Supporters argue that Strategy’s massive Bitcoin reserves, ability to issue equity, and multi-year debt maturities provide sufficient flexibility to navigate even severe downturns.

Critics, however, warn that a prolonged bear market could still force difficult choices. Potential risks cited by investors include shareholder dilution, pressure on the capital structure, or the possibility of selling Bitcoin if funding conditions tighten.

“The company is currently facing a whopping -$7.3 billion loss on their Bitcoin investments,” said Jacob King.

For now, Strategy appears committed to its high-conviction approach. However, by acknowledging that its Bitcoin reserves would merely match its debt, the company has made clear that even the most aggressive corporate Bitcoin strategy still has a theoretical breaking point, one defined not just by market prices but by the limits of leverage itself.

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RWA Perps heat up as gold, silver whipsaw; ONDO, PAXG, MKR, LINK lead RWA trade

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RWA Perps heat up as gold, silver whipsaw; ONDO, PAXG, MKR, LINK lead RWA trade

RWA perps volume explodes above $15B as gold and silver crash, Binance cements dominance, and ONDO, PAXG, MKR, LINK front-run the real‑world assets trade.

The RWA perpetuals market is suddenly where the adrenaline is. As CoinMarketCap put it, “the RWA Perpetuals market is carving out an interesting niche… by letting traders speculate on real-world commodities like gold and silver using crypto derivatives,” with early 2026 showing “genuine momentum” on the back of extreme precious‑metal volatility.

Leading the way are ONDO (ONDO), PAXG (PAXG), MKR (MKR), LINK (LINK), which analysts say may be bucking the broader crypto bear trend.

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Volatility, flows, and exchanges

CoinMarketCap’s data show clear venue concentration: “Binance dominates with 68.37% market share in YTD Volume, followed by OKX (14.63%) and MEXC (9.25%). Bitget (4.77%) and Gate (4.52%) combine for under 10%.” That kind of skew tells you where liquidity — and liquidation cascades — are most likely to cluster.

The flow has been violent. On January 30, RWA perps volume hit $15.57 billion as “gold futures plunged around 11% (closing near $4,745/oz), while silver had its worst single day since 1980, crashing about 28% from nearly $115/oz down to $78/oz.” February 2 still pushed $10.96 billion, with gold down another 2% to roughly $4,652/oz and silver slipping to $77.

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By February 5, volume rebounded to $12.06 billion as silver “dropped another 9% to $76 per ounce, while gold slipped about 1.24%,” a sequence CoinMarketCap summarized as “explosive moves fueled by speculation running hot, margin calls forcing positions closed, and macro news sending shockwaves through the markets.”

Crypto bleed and RWA bid

Context matters: “crypto itself has been bleeding badly in early 2026. Bitcoin’s down ~49% from its late 2025 peak, and the overall market has shed trillions in what feels like full capitulation mode.” That backdrop is exactly why RWA perps “are emerging as something genuinely different… a way for crypto traders to get exposure to TradFi assets and speculate without leaving their native ecosystem,” offering diversification and hedging that “pure crypto can’t provide right now.”

Among spot RWA‑themed tokens, names like Ondo (ONDO), Maker (MKR), PAX Gold (PAXG), and Chainlink (LINK) sit at the core of the narrative, spanning tokenized Treasuries, on‑chain collateralized credit, gold‑backed exposure, and oracle infrastructure for tokenized assets.

Major coin prices and 24h moves

As of the latest session, Bitcoin (BTC) trades around $73,420, down roughly 3.9% over 24 hours. Ether (ETH) changes hands near $2,165, off about 5.7% in the same period, while Solana (SOL) sits around $93, down approximately 7.7%. The broader market has seen similar pressure, with total crypto capitalization sliding sharply in early February.

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(For full live pricing and deeper breakdowns, see the crypto.news price pages for BTC, ETH, SOL, ONDO, MKR, PAXG, and LINK.)

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Pump.fun Expands Trading Infrastructure by Acquiring Vyper

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Crypto Breaking News

Pump.fun has expanded its footprint in on-chain trading by acquiring Vyper, the Solana-based trading terminal, and winding down Vyper’s standalone product to merge its infrastructure into Pump.fun’s Terminal ecosystem. The transition is set to begin with the shutdown of core Vyper features on Feb. 10, while limited functionality remains accessible as users are directed to Pump.fun’s Terminal (the former Padre) for continued access to trading tools. The deal’s financial terms were not disclosed, and Pump.fun did not comment for this article. The move underscores a broader consolidation strategy as Pump.fun seeks to unify token launches, execution, and analytics under a single platform, even as Solana-based memecoin activity cools from the speculative peak of late 2024 and early 2025. The acquisition follows Pump.fun’s earlier push into trading infrastructure, positioning the company to streamline workflow across the memecoin ecosystem.

Key takeaways

  • Pump.fun is consolidating its trading workflow by absorbing Vyper, integrating the terminal into its broader ecosystem rather than maintaining standalone tooling.
  • Vyper will begin winding down its core product on Feb. 10, with limited functions remaining as users migrate to Pump.fun’s Terminal (formerly Padre).
  • The deal’s terms were not disclosed, and Pump.fun did not provide comment prior to publication.
  • The move follows Pump.fun’s October acquisition of Padre, which was rebranded to Terminal, and signals a broader pivot toward end-to-end trading infrastructure.
  • DefiLlama data show Pump.fun’s monthly revenue peaked at over $137 million in January 2025, but fell to about $31 million in January 2026, illustrating a cooling memecoin market.

Sentiment: Neutral

Market context: The consolidation comes as the memecoin sector, which once heated Solana-based launch activity, has cooled amid slower momentum and tightened liquidity. The industry is calibrating trading workflows, liquidity provisioning, and analytics to weather shifting risk appetite and evolving regulatory scrutiny.

Why it matters

The acquisition of Vyper marks a notable shift in how meme-centric platforms orchestrate their trading infrastructure. By folding a standalone terminal into a broader platform, Pump.fun aims to deliver a unified experience that spans token launches, liquidity management, and execution analytics. For users, this could mean simplified onboarding and a more cohesive set of tools, reducing the need to juggle multiple interfaces across separate services. For the broader market, the move signals ongoing consolidation among infrastructure players as platforms seek to lock in users during periods of normalization after the frenetic memecoin era.

Central to the narrative is the Solana (CRYPTO: SOL) blockchain’s role in memecoin activity. Pump.fun’s strategy has long leaned on Solana-based launches, where liquidity and speculative demand previously surged, driving short-term revenue growth. The latest integration suggests that Pump.fun intends to offer a more durable, end-to-end workflow—combining launch capabilities with execution and analytics—potentially stabilizing revenue streams even as speculative dynamics recede. Investors will be watching how the Terminal ingestion affects execution quality, slippage, and the reliability of data streams as the platform absorbs Vyper’s user base and tooling.

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From a governance and product perspective, the move foreshadows further shifts as platforms recalibrate their product mix away from standalone memecoin gimmicks toward sustainable infrastructure. Pump.fun’s earlier steps—acquiring Padre and launching an investment arm, Pump Fund, in January—signal a pivot beyond pure memecoin speculation toward more diversified funding and support for early-stage projects. The company’s stated intent to back non-crypto ventures through the hackathon underscores a broader strategic realignment toward building an ecosystem with longer-term value capture, beyond the transient popularity of individual memecoins.

What to watch next

  • Feb. 10: Operational shutoff of Vyper’s core features and the continued migration of users to Terminal. Monitor any service interruptions or migration pain points.
  • Progress of Terminal integration: Assess how quickly users adapt to the combined workflow for launches, execution, and analytics and whether feature parity with Vyper is maintained.
  • Subsequent expansion: Look for additional upgrades or partnerships that broaden Terminal’s capabilities beyond memecoin launches, including non-crypto or cross-chain integrations.
  • Regulatory and market context: Stay aware of changing regulatory signals and macro conditions that influence liquidity and risk sentiment in on-chain trading.

Sources & verification

  • Vyper announced the wind-down and migration plan with Feb. 10 as a milestone (X post by TradeonVyper).
  • DefiLlama revenue data for Pump.fun showing a peak of over $137 million in January 2025 and ~ $31 million in January 2026.
  • Cointelegraph reporting on Pump.fun’s acquisition of Padre (trading terminal) in October, which was later rebranded as Terminal.
  • Pump.fun’s launch of Pump Fund and the January 20 hackathon aimed at supporting early-stage projects beyond crypto.
  • Contextual background on the broader memecoin market’s expansion and subsequent cooling, including market-cap discussions tracked by CoinMarketCap.

Expansion and consolidation: Pump.fun absorbs Vyper into its Terminal ecosystem

Pump.fun’s latest move extends a pattern of vertical integration designed to streamline how users interact with memecoin launches, liquidity provisioning, and on-chain analytics. By absorbing Vyper, a trading terminal with a dedicated user base, into Terminal, the company is effectively folding a specialized toolset into a broader platform that aspires to cover more of the user journey—from initial token ideas to live trading and data-driven decision making. The timeline is explicit: on Feb. 10, core parts of Vyper will cease operating as a standalone product, while limited functionalities will remain accessible to bridge the transition. Users are being redirected to Pump.fun’s Terminal, which had previously been known as Padre, signaling a seamless migration path for existing customers.

The strategic logic behind the acquisition aligns with a broader industry trend: platforms seeking to lock in users by offering a one-stop shop for token launches, liquidity management, and analytics. As memecoin momentum cooled—from the heady days when celebrity-led token drops and government officials’ involvement helped spur a parabolic interest to a more measured pace—providers have sought to preserve revenue by bundling services. DefiLlama’s data capture demonstrates how Pump.fun’s revenue trajectory paralleled this cycle: a record of $137 million in January 2025, followed by a steep 77% decline in the year that followed, landing around $31 million in January 2026. The consolidation may be a pragmatic response to such revenue pressure, creating a more sustainable platform that can weather fluctuating demand while still serving a highly specialized user base.

Industry observers note that the Solana-based ecosystem has been a focal point for memecoin activity, with a number of tokens and launchpads anchored to that network. The rebranding and consolidation around Terminal indicates a shift from a project-centric model to an infrastructure-centric approach—one that prioritizes execution quality, reliability, and analytics accuracy for traders and project teams launching new tokens. The absence of disclosed financial terms in the deal leaves questions about the valuation and future revenue sharing, but the strategic intent is clear: unify tools under a single umbrella to improve user experience and potentially stabilize monetization channels beyond speculative token launches.

In tandem with the acquisition, Pump.fun has already pursued related strategic moves. The October acquisition of Padre, which was subsequently renamed Terminal, extended the company’s reach into the trading floor’s core capabilities. Earlier in January, Pump.fun broadened its footprint by launching Pump Fund, an investment arm intended to diversify beyond memecoins, and kicked off a $3 million hackathon to back early-stage projects, including ventures not directly tied to crypto. Together, these steps signal an evolution from a meme-driven growth model toward a more diversified ecosystem play that emphasizes sustainable infrastructure, broader funding initiatives, and broader use cases for its technology stack. The market will likely scrutinize how this transition affects liquidity, execution quality, and the platform’s ability to attract high-quality launches in a shifting macro environment.

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Risk & affiliate notice: Crypto assets are volatile and capital is at risk. This article may contain affiliate links. Read full disclosure

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Bitcoin May Need Two Years to Flip $93,500 Back to Support

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Bitcoin Price, Markets, Market Analysis

Bitcoin (BTC) liquidated billions of dollars going into Friday as BTC price action set bearish records.

Key points:

  • Bitcoin liquidates $2.6 billion as it sees its first red $10,000 daily candle ever.

  • BTC price action dives further in percentage terms than on any day since the 2022 bear market.

  • It may take until 2028 for Bitcoin to return above $93,500 again.

Bitcoin seals biggest daily dollar rout in history

Data from TradingView showed BTC/USD consolidating after bouncing from $59,930 — its first trip below the $60,000 mark since October 2024.

Bitcoin Price, Markets, Market Analysis
BTC/USD one-day chart. Source: Cointelegraph/TradingView

Sustained selling pressure during Thursday’s US trading session eventually sparked a liquidation cascade, with $2.6 billion in crypto positions wiped out over 24 hours, per data from CoinGlass.

Crypto liquidations vs. BTC/USD (screenshot). Source: CoinGlass

Commenting, crypto market participants noted that the liquidation tally had surpassed both the COVID-19 crash from March 2020 and the reaction to the implosion of exchange FTX in late 2022.

Bitcoin price action also brought back historical bear-market records elsewhere.

In percentage terms, Thursday’s daily candle was the largest daily decline since the FTX debacle — an event that sparked the bear-market low of $15,600.

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BTC/USD one-day % change. Source: Joe Consorti/X

“The ETF holders have never experienced this kind of sell-off,” Joe Consorti, head of growth at Bitcoin equity company Horizon, responded on X, referring to institutional investors with exposure to the US spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs).

They saw net outflows of $434 million on Thursday, per data from UK-based investment firm Farside Investors.

US spot Bitcoin ETF netflows (screenshot). Source: Farside Investors

BTC/USD, meanwhile, achieved an unenviable new feat, falling by more than $10,000 in a day for the first time.

“Yesterday was the highest volume day on $BTC since August 2024,” trader Jelle added.

“One for the history books.”

BTC price “trend reversal,” only in 2028?

In a grim outlook for Bitcoin bulls, crypto trader and analyst Rekt Capital said that it could be 2028 before a true rebound occurs.

Related: Will Bitcoin rebound to $90K by March? Here’s what BTC options say

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Using the BTC price cycle model as a guide, including a key moving average crossover at the end of January, Rekt Capital foresees a classic bear market year for 2026.

“Looks like it indeed is the year of the Bitcoin Bear Market,” he wrote in an X post.

“2027 will be the Bottoming Out year for BTC. And 2028 will be the Trend Reversal year where $93500 would be finally broken.”

BTC/USD 12-month chart. Source: Rekt Capital/X

A separate post warned of “bearish acceleration” on BTC/USD, again mimicking the 2022 bear market.