Crypto World
JPMorgan (JPM) says bitcoin’s (BTC) lower volatility relative to gold might make it ‘more attractive’ in long term
Despite its long-standing reputation as “digital gold,” bitcoin has sharply diverged from traditional safe havens like gold and silver, but that might not be a bad thing for the digital asset’s future, according to JPMorgan analysts.
Gold surged more than 60% in 2025 on sustained central bank buying and flight-to-safety demand, while bitcoin has struggled into 2026, posting repeated monthly declines and underperforming major risk assets. JPMorgan’s report suggests this widening gap reflects bitcoin’s fading appeal as a hedge against market turmoil.
Digital assets “came under further pressure over the past week as risk assets and in particular tech came under pressure and as gold and silver, the other perceived hedges to a catastrophic scenario, saw a sharp correction,” analysts led by Nikolaos Panigirtzoglou wrote.
This selloff has also spilled over into spot bitcoin and ether exchange-traded funds (ETFs), signaling broad-based negative sentiment among institutional and retail investors, according to JPMorgan analysts. The bearish sentiment has also affected the stablecoin supply, which has contracted, the note said.
‘Catastrophic scenario’
However, JPMorgan still sees a longer-term case for bitcoin.
The report said gold has outperformed bitcoin since last October, but with sharply higher volatility, which makes bitcoin “even more attractive compared to gold.”
In theory, if bitcoin were to match the recent volatility seen in gold, the price of the digital asset would have to rise to near $266,000 to match the investments being made in gold, which, the analysts agree, is unlikely. What this low volatility does for bitcoin is that it highlights bitcoin’s future potential as a safe haven.
“This $266k volatility-adjusted comparison to gold is in our opinion an unrealistic target for this year, but it shows the upside potential over the long term once negative sentiment is reversed and once bitcoin is again perceived equally attractive to gold as a potential hedge to a catastrophic scenario,” the analysts wrote.
Read more: Bitcoin nears pre-election floor as ETF flows stall, Citi says
Brent crude oil just posted its biggest monthly price gain on record, 51% since the opening day of the month, and crypto traders are watching both the oil chart and their crypto positions simultaneously before making any prediction.
Bitcoin rebounded 2% intraday to $67,000 even as oil shockwaves rattled equities, raising a question active traders are increasingly asking: is the real opportunity in oil, crypto, or something built on top of both narratives? The answer depends heavily on what happens in the Strait of Hormuz over the next 72 hours.
Brent closed Friday at $112.57 per barrel, up from $72.48 on February 27, the day before the US-Israeli strike on Iran, and briefly tagged $119.50 intraday, its highest since June 2022. BloombergNEF estimates 9 million barrels per day have been knocked offline by the conflict, with Iran all but closing the Strait of Hormuz, through which roughly one-fifth of global oil and gas normally flows.
A coordinated 400-million-barrel emergency reserve release on March 11 barely dented the rally. Trump’s 10-day ultimatum to Iran to reopen the strait was met by a rising oil price and falling stock markets, not exactly the negotiating leverage the White House projected.
Total crypto market capitalization has reached $2.4 trillion despite the macro turbulence, suggesting digital assets are absorbing the geopolitical shock. The macro correlation between Treasury yields, risk assets, and crypto is tightening, and oil is now the single most consequential variable in that equation.
Discover: The best crypto to diversify your portfolio with
Oil Price Prediction: Will Oil Blast Pass $200?
WTI crude surged above $110 per barrel on March 9 and has held elevated since, with 10-year futures still pricing around $57 per barrel, a signal that markets expect eventual normalization but have no timeline for it.
Bitcoin is currently trading in a defined $62,000–$73,000 channel. Resistance sits at $73,000, tested and rejected recently; support is intact at $62,000. The brief touch of $74,000 before the pullback signals buyers are present at highs, but conviction is thin.
Rising import prices, up 1.3% in February, combined with oil above $110, are the inputs feeding that rate-hike probability. Watch Tuesday’s API Crude Oil Stocks and ADP Employment data as the next directional catalysts.
Once the Strait of Hormuz opens for business, oil will likely start to normalize. Is this the time to long oil? The answer lies more in geopolitics right now, not much in chart structure.
Discover: The best pre-launch token sales
Bitcoin Hyper is Targeting A movement Similar to Oil
BTC at $67,000 inside a known range is a respectable position, but at this market cap, the asymmetric upside that early crypto cycles delivered is structurally compressed.
The Iran deadline extension is already weighing on risk assets, and spot BTC traders are essentially betting on a macro resolution they cannot control. For traders hunting for leverage on the Bitcoin ecosystem without the channel ceiling, the infrastructure layer is where some rotation is happening.
Bitcoin Hyper ($HYPER) is positioning as the first Bitcoin Layer 2 with Solana Virtual Machine (SVM) integration, combining Bitcoin’s security model with sub-Solana-speed execution and low-cost smart contracts.
The presale has raised $32 million at a current price of just $0.0136, with 36% staking rewards live for early participants. The core pitch: Bitcoin’s programmability problem (slow transactions, high fees, no native smart contracts) gets a direct fix, while the security layer stays intact.
Research Bitcoin Hyper before the presale window closes.
This article is not financial advice. Crypto assets are highly volatile. Do your own research before investing.
The post Oil Price Prediction: Trading Oil With Crypto? Is It Time to Long Oil? appeared first on Cryptonews.
Bitcoin (BTC) buyers made a tepid comeback on Monday, pushing BTC price to its intraday high of $67,860. Analysts said that Bitcoin remains in a bear market, with several metrics pointing to a potential bottom below $50,000.
Key takeaways:
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Bitcoin price turns $70,000 into resistance, clearing the path for a deeper correction.
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Bitcoin’s short-term holder realized price bands moved lower, with a potential bottom around $46,000.
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Historical retracement levels and a bear flag breakdown point to $39,000–$41,000 as the final low for BTC price this cycle.
Bitcoin’s “path of least resistance” is downward
Data from TradingView captured ongoing BTC price gains, up 1.5% on the day to trade at $67,750, as $69,000-$70,000 became new resistance.
Analyzing Bitcoin’s price action on lower time frames, Telegram trading resource Technical Crypto Analyst said losing the $68,000-$69,000 support “confirms short-term bearish momentum,” adding:
“Unless price quickly reclaims $69K–$70K, the path of least resistance remains downward toward the $65K demand zone.”
Related: Worst six months since 2018? Five things to know in Bitcoin this week
“Great bounce upwards, but nothing confirmed as of yet on Bitcoin,” MN Capital founder Michael van de Poppe said in a Monday post on X.
It “all depends on macroeconomic events; however, I’d rather see a breakout above $71K for confirmation,” he added.
“On the other hand, a classic little sweep to $65K just before the push upwards would signal that we’re going to get that momentum.”
Analyst Kyle Chassé said that with the Fear and Greed index still in the “extreme fear zone” and the order books showing more shorts than longs, the market leans “towards more downside.”
Where will the Bitcoin price bottom?
Bitcoin’s 46% drawdown from its $126,000 all-time high has seen the cost basis of short-term holders (STH) — the average price of entities who have held BTC for less than 155 days — drop from $113,500 to $83,200.
“This is a sign that the pricing for a potential bottom has also moved lower,” said CEO and founder at Alphractal Joao Wedson in an X post on Monday.
Similarly, the lower line of the STH realized pricing bands (blue line) has also moved “even lower, which could confirm that Bitcoin may form a bottom around $50K or slightly below,” Wedson added.
The chart below shows that Bitcoin bottomed out just below the lower band of the STH realized price during the 2022 bear market.
Analyst Willy Woo said that the bear market bottom for Bitcoin could be between its realized price, currently at $54,000, and the Cumulative Value-Days Destroyed (CVDD), now at $45,500.
“Old school onchain models suggest a BTC bottom between $46K-54K. ”
The CVDD measures the cumulative value of “Coin Days Destroyed” (long-term holders selling) relative to the market’s age, creating a rising “floor” price during bear markets.
Crypto analyst Crypto Jelle said Bitcoin’s bear market lows have historically formed between the 0.618 and the 0.786 retracement levels, which are at $57,600 and $39,000, respectively.
As Cointelegraph reported, the current “last stages” of the bear market are producing predictions of as low as $41,000, based on a bear flag breakdown.
This article is produced in accordance with Cointelegraph’s Editorial Policy and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute investment advice or recommendations. All investments and trades carry risk; readers are encouraged to conduct independent research before making any decisions. Cointelegraph makes no guarantees regarding the accuracy or completeness of the information presented, including forward-looking statements, and will not be liable for any loss or damage arising from reliance on this content.
Morgan Stanley is preparing to launch a Bitcoin ETF with a 0.14% fee, undercutting major competitors. The fund aims to compete directly with BlackRock’s IBIT dominance. The listing progress suggests a likely April debut as competition intensifies.
Key Highlights
- Morgan Stanley sets 0.14% fee to rival BlackRock’s Bitcoin ETF dominance
- MSBT filing signals aggressive pricing strategy ahead of April launch
- Low-cost structure may attract both advisors and external capital flows
- ETF approval progress points to imminent debut on NYSE Arca exchange
- Bank expands crypto push with filings for Ethereum and Solana ETFs
🚨LATEST:
$1.9 trillion Morgan Stanley to offer Bitcoin ETF with 0.14% fee, cheapest in the market if approved. pic.twitter.com/8h5XLiMSAO
— CryptoGoos (@cryptogoos) March 28, 2026
Bitcoin ETF Pricing War Intensifies
Bitcoin traded near $67,000 during the latest session, reflecting ongoing market volatility and uneven ETF flows. Morgan Stanley positioned its ETF with a 0.14% management fee, placing it below most competitors in the current market.
The fee undercuts BlackRock’s IBIT, which charges 0.25%, and slightly beats Grayscale’s Mini Bitcoin Trust. As a result, the pricing strategy signals a direct challenge to established leaders. It also reinforces growing competition among issuers seeking market share.
Bloomberg analyst Eric Balchunas described the move as strategic and timely. He noted that lower fees could remove internal friction among advisors. Additionally, the structure could attract external allocations due to cost efficiency.
Morgan Stanley Expands Crypto Strategy
Morgan Stanley has steadily increased its exposure to digital asset products in recent years. The firm already allows client allocations to Bitcoin related funds through advisory channels. This ETF marks its first direct issuance in the spot Bitcoin ETF market.
The bank manages trillions in advisory assets and maintains a large network of financial advisors. Therefore, the ETF launch could unlock significant distribution potential. It also positions the firm as a direct competitor rather than a facilitator.
James Seyffart highlighted the broader implications of the pricing decision. He suggested that similar fee reductions could apply to future products. The firm has already filed for Ethereum and Solana ETFs, signaling continued expansion.
Launch Timeline and Market Context
The ETF has secured a listing on NYSE Arca, which often signals an imminent launch window. Current expectations point to a debut within weeks, possibly in April. This timeline aligns with regulatory progress and final preparation stages.
Bitcoin ETF flows have shown mixed patterns amid recent price weakness. Some funds have recorded outflows, while others maintain steady inflows. Despite this trend, new entrants continue to pursue market share through aggressive pricing.
Morgan Stanley’s entry stands out due to its scale and distribution reach. The firm operates a large advisor network managing substantial client assets. Consequently, its ETF could influence allocation trends within traditional wealth channels.
The broader ETF market has evolved rapidly since initial approvals earlier in the year. Large asset managers have dominated early inflows, led by BlackRock. However, new issuers now compete through differentiation, mainly via fees.
Morgan Stanley’s approach reflects this shift toward cost leadership and accessibility. Lower fees reduce barriers for adoption and improve long term competitiveness. This strategy may reshape pricing standards across future crypto ETFs.
South Korea’s Naver Financial has pushed back the timeline for its planned share swap with Dunamu, the operator of crypto exchange Upbit, according to a regulatory filing posted on Monday.
In a filing with the Financial Supervisory Service (FSS), the company said it expects to hold a shareholder vote on Aug. 18 and complete the transaction on Sept. 30, marking a roughly three-month delay from earlier target dates of late May or early June.
Naver Financial’s plans to acquire Dunamu were first revealed in September 2025, as local news agencies Yonhap and Chosun reported the company was preparing a share swap to bring the Upbit operator under its umbrella. The company later confirmed the transaction in a Nov. 26 regulatory filing, outlining a roughly $10.3 billion all-stock deal.
The transaction is part of Naver Financial’s plan to bring Dunamu under its umbrella as a wholly owned subsidiary. The transaction would combine one of South Korea’s biggest fintech platforms with the operator of its biggest crypto exchange, making it one of the country’s most consequential crypto-finance tie-ups.
Digital Asset Basic Act could affect the deal’s outcome
Naver Financial’s FSS filing also outlined that the deal remains subject to multiple regulatory approvals tied to changes in major shareholding and business combination review.
Naver said the transaction could be delayed further or even canceled depending on the progress of approvals.
It also said ongoing discussions around South Korea’s proposed Digital Asset Basic Act could affect the timeline or outcome once the legislation is enacted.
South Korea’s proposed Digital Asset Basic Act is a planned second-phase crypto law meant to go beyond the current user-protection regime and create a broader rulebook for digital assets. The legislation is expected to be rolled out in the first half of 2026.
Related: Upbit hit with $36M Solana hot wallet breach day after $10B Naver deal
Dunamu profit declines as crypto trading volumes fall
The pushed-back timeline comes as Dunamu reported a decline in operating performance, with revenue and profit both falling in 2025 amid weaker activity in the crypto market.
According to its annual report filed with the FSS, the company posted revenue of about 1.56 trillion won (around $1 billion), down 10% year-on-year. Operating profit fell 26.7% to 869.3 billion won (around $573.3 million), while net profit fell 27.9% to 708.9 billion won (around $467 million).
The company attributed the decline to reduced trading volumes during a broader slowdown in the crypto market.
According to research firm 10x Research, trading volumes recently fell to their lowest levels since 2022, with total weekly volume down about 7% from average and network usage indicators such as Ethereum fees signaling subdued demand.
Magazine: Hong Kong isn’t the loophole Chinese crypto firms think it is
The decentralized finance (DeFi) revolution promised a financial system without banks, borders, or gatekeepers. And to be fair, it delivered. Today, anyone with an internet connection can lend, borrow, trade, and earn yield through blockchain-based protocols.
But here’s the uncomfortable truth: most of DeFi ended up optimizing for profit… not purpose.
Enter ImpactFi—the evolution of DeFi that merges financial returns with real-world social and environmental impact. It’s not just about making money anymore; it’s about making money matter.
What Is ImpactFi?
ImpactFi sits at the intersection of DeFi and impact investing.
Impact investing itself focuses on generating measurable social or environmental benefits alongside financial returns.
Now combine that with blockchain—and you get a transparent, programmable, and decentralized system that aligns capital with global impact.
In simple terms:
ImpactFi = DeFi + Purpose
Instead of yield farming for pure profit, users can now earn while funding renewable energy, education, healthcare, or climate initiatives.
Why Traditional Finance Fell Short
Before ImpactFi, impact investing faced several bottlenecks:
- High entry barriers (big money only)
- Slow decision-making
- Lack of transparency
- Limited community involvement
Even with trillions flowing into the sector, capital distribution remained inefficient and often disconnected from the communities it aimed to serve.
ImpactFi fixes this—with code.
The Core Pillars of ImpactFi
1. Transparency Through Blockchain
Every transaction, allocation, and outcome is recorded on-chain.
No more vague “impact reports.”
No more “trust us” fund managers.
With blockchain:
- You can verify where funds go
- Track outcomes in real time
- Audit impact metrics transparently
This solves one of the biggest issues in traditional impact investing—accountability.
2. Smart Contracts = Automated Impact
Smart contracts power DeFi by executing agreements without intermediaries. ImpactFi takes this further.
For example:
- A portion of the yield is automatically redirected to climate projects
- Donations are triggered by on-chain events
- Funds are released only when impact milestones are met
This creates programmable philanthropy—no human bias, no delays.
3. Community Governance via DAOs
ImpactFi platforms often use DAOs (Decentralized Autonomous Organizations).
Instead of a centralized fund manager:
- Investors, communities, and stakeholders vote on decisions
- Governance tokens give real influence
- Funding decisions are democratized
This flips the script:
The people affected by investments finally have a say in them.
4. Impact Yield Farming
A standout innovation is impact yield farming.
Traditionally:
- You stake → you earn rewards
In ImpactFi:
- You stake → you earn and fund real-world impact
Some protocols even split yields:
- Part goes to the user
- Part goes to social/environmental causes via smart contracts
It’s like earning passive income… with a conscience.
5. Financial Inclusion at Scale
DeFi already removes intermediaries, making finance accessible globally.
ImpactFi extends this by:
- Funding underserved communities
- Supporting microfinance through decentralized systems
- Enabling grassroots participation in investment decisions
This is where things get powerful:
ImpactFi doesn’t just redistribute wealth—it redistributes opportunity.
How ImpactFi Is Changing DeFi Itself
ImpactFi isn’t just a niche—it’s reshaping the entire DeFi narrative.
From Speculation → Sustainability
DeFi has often been criticized for being overly speculative. ImpactFi introduces long-term, mission-driven capital allocation.
From Whales → Communities
Governance is shifting from large token holders to broader stakeholder groups via DAO models.
From Yield → Purpose
Yield is no longer the only KPI. Now we measure:
- Carbon offset
- Social impact
- Community development
Real-World Use Cases
ImpactFi is already being applied in:
- 🌱 Climate finance (carbon credits, reforestation)
- 🏥 Healthcare funding in underserved regions
- 📚 Education access through decentralized grants
- 🌍 Local economic development via community DAOs
Blockchain even enables faster capital flow by simplifying the verification and tracking of outcomes.
Challenges (Because Nothing Is Perfect)
Let’s not pretend this is all sunshine and green candles:
- Impact measurement is still evolving
- Regulatory uncertainty remains
- Greenwashing risk exists (yes, even on-chain)
- User experience is still… very crypto
But compared to traditional systems?
ImpactFi is already leagues ahead in transparency and efficiency.
The Future of ImpactFi
The impact investing market is projected to grow massively in the coming years, and decentralized models are accelerating that shift.
We’re heading toward a world where:
- Every transaction has a traceable impact
- Capital allocation is community-driven
- Financial systems are aligned with global sustainability goals
In other words:
Finance stops being neutral—and starts being intentional.
Conclusive
ImpactFi is what happens when DeFi grows up.
It keeps the best parts—permissionless access, transparency, automation—and adds something DeFi desperately needed:
a reason beyond profit.
And if DeFi was about removing middlemen…
ImpactFi is about removing meaninglessness.
REQUEST AN ARTICLE
Bitcoin (BTC) heads into the March monthly close as it risks its sixth straight month of losses.
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BTC price action touches $65,000 to start the week as traders expect a copycat bear flag breakdown.
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Iran headlines dominate the macro mood amid rumors of a US ground invasion.
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March could go either way for Bitcoin as it sits on the edge of its first six-month losing streak since 2018.
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Whales have begun to reduce their BTC exposure, adding to mid-term price headwinds.
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Modest demand in the current trading range lacks “magnitude” to support a trend reversal.
BTC price action revisits $65,000
Bitcoin faced last-minute selling into Sunday’s weekly close, dropping to $65,000 before a modest rebound.
Data from TradingView shows $67,500 forming a focus for Monday, with traders still firmly risk-off on the short-term outlook.
In its latest post to Telegram channel subscribers, analytics resource Technical Crypto Analyst wrote:
“BTC is showing a clear shift in structure on the 4H, with price forming lower highs and losing the 68–69k support, which now acts as resistance; this confirms short-term bearish momentum, and unless price quickly reclaims 69–70k, the path of least resistance remains downward toward the 65k demand zone.”
Last week, Cointelegraph reported on $70,000 rapidly becoming new resistance, with a key long-term trend line at $68,300 unable to function as support.
“BTC’s local uptrend is over – as expected – and price is starting to move lower again,” trader Jelle continued on Monday.
“Testing the previous lows as resistance as we speak; bears are back in the drivers’ seat.”
Others also focused on the continuing breakdown of Bitcoin’s second bear flag of 2026 — something that has already sparked sub-$50,000 BTC price targets.
“Repeating the exact same bear flag breakdown like we saw in January,” trader Roman summarized.
Iran war rattles stocks with inflation in focus
Macro markets remain highly sensitive to developments in the US-Iran war, and these keep coming as April arrives.
US President Donald Trump reported a “big day” militarily to start the week amid reports of plans for a ground invasion of Iran.
BREAKING: President Trump is weighing a military operation to extract nearly 1,000 pounds of uranium from Iran, per WSJ.
Details include:
1. This is considered a “complex and risky” mission that would likely put American forces inside the country for days or longer
2. Trump…
— The Kobeissi Letter (@KobeissiLetter) March 30, 2026
Asia stock markets opened sharply down on Monday as the impact of the oil-supply crisis made its presence felt.
“The ongoing tensions means that tanker traffic through the Strait of Hormuz remains limited, which continues placing strains on global energy markets along with uncertainty over access to fertilizer products for farming,” trading resource Mosaic Asset Company commented in the latest edition of its regular newsletter, “The Market Mosaic.”
“That’s weighing on the S&P 500, which has now closed out five consecutive weeks with a loss.”
Mosaic noted that the S&P’s red streak was now the longest since the 2022 Russia-Ukraine war.
“The growing risk of lasting damage on the global economy from high energy prices is pressuring the stocks market,” it continued.
“But perhaps the most consequential spillover impact is on the outlook for inflation, and implications for interest rates on both the short- and long-end of the yield curve.”
As Cointelegraph reported, crypto markets joined stocks in a comedown in late March as the odds of the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates in 2026 faded. At the same time, bets of a recession coming this year increased to their highest since last September.
Fed Chair Jerome Powell is due to take to the stage on Monday, potentially offering more insight into officials’ positions on the economy. Powell will participate in a moderated discussion at the Harvard University Principles of Economics Class.
“The outlook for rate cuts by the Federal Reserve is in jeopardy, while long-term rates are jumping higher as well due to uncertainty around inflation,” Mosaic added.
“The 30-year Treasury yield is close to breaking higher from an ominous pattern that could mean sharply higher rates ahead.”
March risks becoming sixth red BTC price month
Bitcoin bulls have little to boast about as March comes to a close, with BTC/USD about to seal its sixth consecutive month of losses.
Data from CoinGlass shows the result on a knife-edge ahead of the monthly close, with a “green” finish still possible.
If Bitcoin ends March lower than its starting price, it would mark the first six straight “red” months since the 2018 bear market.
“Very slow month so far all things considered. Bitcoin pretty much flat on the month just like last year,” trader Daan Crypto Trades commented about the CoinGlass data.
Daan Crypto Trades noted that over Bitcoin’s history, April has always been comparatively strong.
“Historically speaking, April is bitcoin’s 3rd best month in average returns,” he added.
Trader XO observed that in February 2019, following Bitcoin’s first six-month losing streak, monthly gains totaled 11%.
“If April sees an early sweep into the $55–60K range, it could create a compelling setup for mean-reversion longs imo… (much depends on the overall macro landscape),” they told X followers.
“That said, the higher timeframe structure remains in control until a clear contextual ‘structural’ shift is confirmed.”
Bitcoin whales flip defensive
Bitcoin whales have sparked concerns about future downward pressure on BTC price action.
After an “aggressive” accumulation period at the start of 2026, whales have started reconsidering their exposure, per data from onchain analytics platform CryptoQuant.
“A clear divergence has formed: on-chain buying has ceased while large-scale inflows to exchanges are rising,” contributor Sunny Mom wrote in a “QuickTake” blog post.
“Although the price continues to oscillate around $67K, the data suggests the market is entering another phase of hand-overs (re-distribution).”
CryptoQuant noted increasing whale presence among exchange inflows, with their wallets accounting for more of the largest inbound transactions.
“Furthermore, the stablecoin ratio remains at a low level, reflecting a slowdown in sidelined capital flowing into the market,” Sunny Mom added, referring to stablecoin trends.
“Without fresh liquidity, any attempt by whales to realize gains from their previous on-chain accumulation must rely on existing liquidity, making the price highly sensitive to selling pressure.”
Newer holders sit on “massive supply overhang”
Offering a hint of optimism this week, onchain analytics platform Glassnode sees promise in overall demand tendencies at current prices.
Related: Bitcoin value ‘off the chart’ as BTC price metric hits record lows in 2026
Between $60,000 and $70,000, it notes, new BTC buyers have their aggregate cost basis.
“BTC sits at the lower bound of the new buyers’ cost basis range ($60k–$70k),” it wrote in an X post on Monday.
“Supply accumulation in this range is notable, but the cluster is thinner than historical analogs that preceded a strong recovery.”
For a sustained rebound to begin, demand simply needs to ramp up — something not yet underway as traders stay nervous about geopolitical and macroeconomic shocks.
“The accumulation setup is constructive in form, not yet in magnitude,” Glassnode added.
Previously, Cointelegraph analyzed the various aggregate cost bases of Bitcoin investor cohorts, including that of short-term holders (STHs), the majority of whom are now underwater on their BTC holdings.
Last week, CryptoQuant calculated STH share of the overall supply at 5.7 million BTC, with 92% sitting on losses.
“That’s a massive supply overhang,” it warned.
This article is produced in accordance with Cointelegraph’s Editorial Policy and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute investment advice or recommendations. All investments and trades carry risk; readers are encouraged to conduct independent research before making any decisions. Cointelegraph makes no guarantees regarding the accuracy or completeness of the information presented, including forward-looking statements, and will not be liable for any loss or damage arising from reliance on this content.
Ethereum (ETH) price is trading above $2,000 as March prepares to close with its first green monthly candle since August 2025, potentially snapping a six-month losing streak.
However, how March closes could set the tone for April and even the rest of 2026. Historically, April has been a solid month for ETH with average gains of 18% and a median of roughly 9%. Yet the 3-day chart, on-chain conviction, and whale behavior all suggest the path into April carries more risk than seasonality would imply.
A Six-Month Red Streak May End, but the 3-Day Chart Warns
Ethereum price has not posted a positive monthly close since August 2025. March is on track to break that streak, though gains remain modest. Historically, April ranks among the stronger months for ETH, with average returns of 18% and median returns above 9%.
Want more token insights like this? Sign up for Editor Harsh Notariya’s Daily Crypto Newsletter here.
However, the 3-day chart introduces a structural concern. Since hitting a low of roughly $1,730 on Feb. 6, ETH has been rising inside an ascending channel. That channel formed after a near 50% decline from the $3,410 peak on Jan. 13. Ascending channels that develop after steep corrections often act as continuation patterns, resolving lower rather than higher unless the upper trendline breaks convincingly.
The Relative Strength Index (RSI), a momentum oscillator, has formed a hidden bearish divergence on the 3-day timeframe. Between Dec. 9 and March 23, the price made a lower high while the RSI made a higher high. Hidden bearish divergence signals that the dominant downtrend for ETH is likely to resume despite the apparent recovery. This strengthens the ascending channel theory that the chart already highlights.
A similar divergence appeared between Dec. 9 and March 14. After that signal was confirmed, ETH corrected sharply. The current divergence was confirmed on March 23, and prices have already pulled back from the $2,200 area toward $2,000. The lower trendline of the ascending channel is now acting as support. If it breaks on the 3-day chart, the bearish thesis carries into April with added force.
The technical setup alone does not confirm whether the channel will hold or break. On-chain conviction data provides that answer.
Hodler Conviction Collapsed, and Whales Just Started Selling
The Ethereum hodler net position change, a Glassnode metric that tracks the 30-day rolling accumulation by wallets holding ETH for more than 155 days, peaked at 543,169 ETH on March 21, its highest year-to-date level. By late March, that figure had collapsed to just 121,902 ETH, a near 78% decline.
That decline matters because a similar pattern played out earlier this year. Between mid-January and early February, hodler net position change weakened steadily before flipping negative on Feb. 3. During that transition, ETH price dropped from $3,383 to $1,824, a correction of roughly 46%. The current pace of decline mirrors that earlier deterioration.
While March is still closing in green, the conviction that supported the rally is evaporating in the final week. If hodler accumulation turns negative in early April, the February playbook suggests a significant move lower.
Ethereum whale behavior adds nuance. Two of the largest cohorts, wallets holding between 1 million and 10 million ETH and those holding between 100,000 and 1 million ETH, increased their share of supply since March 25. The larger group went from 8.07% to 8.22% of supply. The smaller group rose from 13.19% to 13.53%.
However, both cohorts reversed course heading into the final days of March. The larger whales began trimming on March 27, and the smaller cohort followed on March 29. The drops are minor so far, but the directional shift is significant. When hodler conviction weakens and whale accumulation stalls simultaneously, the demand side of the market thins at the worst possible time.
The combination of fading conviction and reversing whale flows weakens the foundation heading into April. The price chart now determines whether these signals translate into a deeper decline.
Ethereum Price Needs $2,200 to Avoid a 30% Drop
For the Ethereum price prediction heading into April, the 3-day chart provides clear levels. To regain bullish momentum, ETH needs a 3-day close above $2,200, which would clear the immediate resistance zone. A stronger confirmation comes at $2,390, where a close would push price above the upper trendline of the ascending channel, converting the pattern from bearish continuation to genuine reversal.
That breakout scenario looks difficult given the weakening hodler conviction and whale distribution. The more probable path, based on the alignment of the hidden bearish divergence, collapsing hodler accumulation, and stalling whale buying, points lower.
On the downside, $2,000 (the 1,999 zone on the chart) is the immediate psychological and technical support. A 3-day close below $2,000 would confirm the channel breakdown and expose the $1,750 to $1,730 zone, which marks the February low.
If April follows the pattern set in February, where hodler net position change went negative and prices dropped 46%, the 0.618 Fibonacci retracement near $1,350 becomes a realistic target. That would represent a decline of roughly 30% from current levels.
A 3-day close above $2,200 keeps April constructive and aligns ETH with its historically strong seasonal pattern, while a breakdown below $2,000 risks repeating February’s 46% slide with $1,350 as the measured target.
The post Ethereum Price Prediction: What To Expect From ETH in April 2026 appeared first on BeInCrypto.
Disclosure: This article does not represent investment advice. The content and materials featured on this page are for educational purposes only.
Bitcoin, USDC, and XRP remain key pillars as investors balance store of value, stability, and payments.
Summary
- Bitcoin, USDC, and XRP lead the crypto ecosystem, driving innovation, stability, and cross-border payments.
- ConfluxCapital enables users to earn daily returns through AI-driven quantitative crypto strategies without complex setups.
- The platform offers a $20 signup bonus, automated trading, and flexible withdrawals to simplify crypto investing.
In the booming wave of digital assets, Bitcoin, USDC, and XRP are arguably the three most influential cryptocurrencies. Bitcoin, as decentralized digital gold, continues to lead industry trends; USDC, as a stablecoin, ensures value stability and facilitates asset management and trading; and XRP, with its high-speed, low-cost cross-border payment network, is highly favored by financial institutions.
These three cryptocurrencies together form the core foundation of the modern blockchain ecosystem, continuously driving innovation and development in the global digital economy.
Now, with Confluxcapital, a leading intelligent quantitative strategy mining platform, anyone can easily participate in Bitcoin, USDC, and XRP quantitative strategies, earning stable daily returns without complex equipment or technical barriers.
Whether they are an experienced investor or a beginner, Confluxcapital provides an efficient and compliant strategy environment, allowing anyone to truly create value with digital assets.
What is a quantitative strategy?
ConfluxCapital’s Cryptocurrency AI Quantitative Strategy refers to an investment strategy that uses artificial intelligence and quantitative trading algorithms to automate cryptocurrency trading. In short, it allows programs and AI to replace humans in identifying buying and selling opportunities, automatically trading in the cryptocurrency market to generate stable returns.
ConfluxCapital advantages:
- Receive an instant $20 bonus upon registration. Automated operation: After purchasing a strategy package, earnings are automatically credited to an account the next day, with no need to monitor the market.
- Flexible withdrawals: Withdrawals to a crypto wallet are available once the account balance reaches $100, or reinvest for even more returns.
- Top-tier security: Dual security protection with McAfee® and Cloudflare® ensures assets are safe.
- Globally trusted: Recognized by over 3 million users in 195+ countries and regions.
- Multi-currency support: Supports settlement in major digital assets such as XRP, DOGE, SOL, BTC, ETH, LTC, USDC, USDT, BNB, and BCH.
- Zero extra fees: No hidden fees, transparent and worry-free.
How to start earning daily with Confluxcapital
Step 1: Register an Account
Step 2: Choose a Plan
Confluxcapital offers a variety of earning strategies to meet specific financial goals. Whether someone is looking for short-term gains or long-term returns, there’s one for them.
Step 3: Start Earning
Enjoy earnings without any management. Daily earnings will be automatically deposited into an account, which can then be withdrawn to a cryptocurrency wallet address.
Strategy Name
unit price
Days
Total Revenue
Starter Strategy
$100
2 days
$100+$6
Basic Strategy
$600
5 days
$600+$45
Advanced Strategies
$5,000
15 days
$5,000+$1,215
Elite Strategy
$25,000
25 days
$25,000+$11,250
Quantum Strategy
$90,000
20 days
$90,000+$36,000
Infinite Strategy
$200,000
25 days
$200,000+$110,000
Once the strategy is executed, the resulting profits will be automatically credited to the user’s account the following day. Accumulated funds in the account can be flexibly used to add to existing strategy configurations or withdrawn to a personal encrypted wallet according to platform rules.
About Conflux Capital
Founded in London, UK in 2023, Conflux Capital holds a valid operating license issued by the local government. The platform focuses on quantitative trading, combining intelligent algorithms and arbitrage strategies to provide standardized value-added solutions for crypto asset holders. The team is dedicated to improving strategy execution efficiency and fund transparency, offering multi-currency strategy options to users with different risk appetites.
Conclusion
While XRP still has room for short-term growth, its potential risks are increasingly apparent. Faced with signs of whales exiting the market, more and more savvy investors are choosing to enter the market in a timely manner to diversify their assets and obtain more stable passive cash flow. Confluxcapital’s convenient multi-currency quantitative strategy service perfectly meets this need, enabling investors to fully utilize their existing crypto assets (including XRP, BTC, USDC, etc.) and create a long-term, stable source of income in volatile markets.
No hardware or technical expertise is required to enjoy a one-stop quantitative strategy service, allowing anyone seeking a second or higher income to enjoy a stable and efficient asset appreciation experience.
For more information, visit the official website and download the application.
Email:[email protected]
Disclosure: This content is provided by a third party. Neither crypto.news nor the author of this article endorses any product mentioned on this page. Users should conduct their own research before taking any action related to the company.
Crypto World
XRP Holds Steady Between $1.30 and $1.50 as Whales and Mid-Sized Investors Keep Accumulating
TLDR:
- XRP has been trading between $1.30 and $1.50 for months, showing resilience amid altcoin weakness.
- Binance outflow transactions surged since late February, with some days recording nearly 6,000 withdrawals.
- Most outflow activity is driven by transactions of 1,000 to 100,000 XRP, pointing to mid-sized investors.
- Whales have maintained an accumulation zone between $1.20 and $3.00 for over a year without selling to retail.
XRP has been trading within a defined range for several months, oscillating between $1.30 and $1.50. On-chain data from Binance shows a growing accumulation trend, with outflow transactions rising notably since late February.
Binance Outflow Data Points to an Active Accumulation Phase
Despite challenging conditions across the broader crypto market, XRP has shown a degree of resilience. The asset continues to hold within its established trading range while other altcoins have faced heavier losses.
This steady price action has drawn attention from market analysts tracking on-chain behavior. The pattern suggests that some investors are using the consolidation period to build positions.
Data from Binance shows a clear resurgence in outflow transactions starting from late February. Several days during this period recorded more than 4,000 outflow transactions on the exchange.
Source: Cryptoquant
Some peaks reached close to 6,000 transactions within a single day. This level of activity is notable for an asset still trading over 60% below its all-time high.
Most of the activity is driven by transactions ranging between 1,000 and 100,000 tokens. This range typically corresponds to mid-sized investors rather than large institutional whales.
The pattern differs from the usual whale-dominated movements seen in early bull market cycles. As a result, the accumulation appears to be spread across a broader segment of the market.
An increase in outflow transactions generally means investors are moving tokens off exchanges. This behavior is often interpreted as a preference to hold assets in private wallets.
It suggests reduced selling intent and a longer-term holding mindset. Analysts often view this trend as a positive on-chain signal during a consolidation phase.
Whale Accumulation Adds to the Bullish Narrative for the Asset
Beyond retail and mid-sized investor activity, whale behavior has also drawn considerable attention. According to crypto analyst CW, whales have been accumulating consistently for over a year.
The analyst noted that whales typically build positions at the bottom before an uptrend begins. This observation adds another layer to the existing accumulation narrative.
CW further noted that the current whale accumulation zone sits between $1.20 and $3.00. Before this phase, strong accumulation was recorded in the $0.30 to $1.30 range as well.
These whales have not yet offloaded their holdings to retail investors. Based on available data, they appear to be continuing to buy.
The broader picture suggests that the asset is in an active accumulation phase across multiple investor segments. Both mid-sized holders and larger market participants appear aligned in their current behavior.
However, the key question remains whether this accumulation will be enough to trigger a breakout. A move above the $1.50 resistance level could confirm a shift in momentum.
At press time, XRP is trading at $1.35, still within its months-long range. Market participants continue to monitor on-chain data closely for further signals of a directional move.
Bitcoin is approaching the March monthly close with a potential sixth straight month in the red, hovering in the mid-$60,000s as macro headlines keep risk-off sentiment front and center. The latest price action saw BTC test the $65,000 area early in the week, with traders eyeing $67,500 to $68,000 as near-term resistance and noting a lack of sustained demand to spark a durable rebound. The backdrop combines geopolitical frictions around Iran with inflation and growth concerns, while equities tilt lower and expectations for aggressive Fed easing retreat.
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BTC sits near critical levels: a move back above the $68,000–$69,000 zone is needed to shift the short-term bias away from a bearish channel.
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Macro headlines remain a headwind, as tensions around Iran and energy markets feed inflation and risk-off sentiment in stocks and crypto alike.
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March risks becoming a sixth red month for Bitcoin; April historically offers stronger average returns, though the path depends on macro liquidity and on-chain demand.
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On-chain behavior shows whales reducing exposure while large exchange inflows rise, signalling potential near-term selling pressure in the absence of fresh buying demand.
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New buyers are concentrated around a cost-basis between $60,000 and $70,000, a band that could indicate a fragile cushion for a meaningful rebound unless demand strengthens.
BTC price action tightens around critical levels
Bitcoin’s price action has resumed a cautious stance, with a late-week dip into the mid-$60,000s followed by a modest rebound. Data from Cointelegraph and price-tracking services show BTC hovering around $65,000, with traders highlighting resistance near the $68,000–$69,000 zone. A breach above that range would be a notable shift, while failure to reclaim higher ground keeps the market in a downbeat configuration.
Analysts underscored a pattern of lower highs and a break below prior support, signaling renewed short-term bearish momentum unless BTC can reclaim the $69,000–$70,000 area. In a Telegram update circulated to subscribers, a popular observer noted that the formation of a bear-flag structure on shorter timeframes points toward a continued path of least resistance to the downside unless price quickly reclaims the higher band around $69,000–$70,000.
Market chatter through the week framed this as a continuation of a broader bearish setup that has been developing since mid-March, with traders wary of a potential retest of the mid-$60,000s. Previous cycles have shown that the price must break above the immediate resistance to alter the near-term tilt; otherwise, the scenario remains skewed toward further downside toward a demand zone near $65,000.
Macro headwinds: geopolitics, energy, and monetary policy
Macro markets remain highly sensitive to geopolitical developments in the Middle East, where ongoing tensions are affecting energy prices and risk assets. Reports drawing attention to the potential for further escalation have kept oil markets elevated and injected volatility into equities and crypto alike. As the energy complex tightens and inflation dynamics stay in focus, traders are closely watching how policy signals will adapt to a higher-for-longer inflation regime.
Market commentary has connected these geopolitical and energy factors to broader risk sentiment, noting that tensions surrounding the Strait of Hormuz and related supply constraints can propagate into inflation expectations and the pricing of longer-dated rates. In parallel, a softening in equities has coincided with fading bets on rate cuts this year, a dynamic that has historically correlated with renewed caution in Bitcoin and other risk assets.
Observers point to the Fed’s policy outlook as a crucial hinge for crypto markets. With expectations for significant near-term rate relief waning, long-dated yields have moved higher on inflation concerns, complicating the prospect of any quick crypto rebound. Analysts at market-monitoring firms have highlighted that the combined effect of energy-price pressures and a cautious stance on monetary easing could keep upside momentum contained for Bitcoin in the near term.
April on the horizon? Historical context and potential mean reversion
March is shaping up to be a difficult month for Bitcoin, with data-tracking firms signaling a possible continuation of a six-month losing streak. CoinGlass data shows BTC on the cusp of closing March in the red, maintaining a structure that would echo the strongest downtrends Bitcoin has faced in recent cycles.
Some traders point to historical patterns where April has been more forgiving or even positive for Bitcoin. A number of market observers have highlighted that, in past cycles, April has yielded meaningful upside after a prolonged downturn, though much depends on macro conditions and liquidity flows. One analyst noted that early April strength could set up mean-reversion longs, particularly if broader macro conditions stabilize and Bitcoin retrieves risk-appetite from other assets.
The discussion around April’s potential gains is tempered by the reality that the long-term trend remains under the control of larger-timeframe structure. Another trader emphasized that while a fast bounce is possible, the overarching trend has not yet reversed without a clean break above the defined resistance level and a shift in on-chain demand dynamics.
Whales, liquidity, and the new-buyer base
On-chain dynamics reveal an evolving balance between accumulation and distribution. After an aggressive early-2026 phase of buying, Bitcoin whales have started to pare back some exposure, with analysts noting a divergence between on-chain accumulation and actual supply inflows to exchanges. In a quick-take assessment, CryptoQuant highlighted rising exchange inflows alongside a drop in on-chain buying, suggesting the market could face renewed selling pressure without fresh inflows of demand from buyers at scale.
That narrative is reinforced by stablecoin activity: the stablecoin ratio has remained subdued, indicating a relative dearth of sidelined capital waiting to re-enter the market. As a result, any renewed selling pressure from whales could find limited immediate liquidity, making price moves more sensitive to the available bid depth and to new buyers stepping in at meaningful volume.
Glassnode’s data adds nuance to the debate about demand and supply. The firm pointed out that a notable portion of new Bitcoin buying is concentrated in a cost-basis band between $60,000 and $70,000. While this indicates that new buyers are entering the market, the overall cluster is thinner than past cycles that followed strong recoveries. In other words, a sustained rebound would likely require a clearer uptick in demand rather than a mere reallocation of existing liquidity.
Beyond the headline numbers, the broader takeaway is that a meaningful recovery requires a shift in both macro conditions and on-chain demand. Short-term holders remain underwater for much of their holdings, reinforcing the sense that fresh buyers and renewed risk appetite will be essential to re-accelerate BTC higher.
This article is prepared with reference to market data and commentary from CoinGlass, CryptoQuant, Glassnode, and Mosaic Market, among others, to frame the ongoing crypto-price dynamics against a backdrop of macro and liquidity trends.
This article is produced in accordance with editorial policy and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute investment advice or recommendations. All investments and trades carry risk; readers are encouraged to conduct independent research before making any decisions.
What to watch next: a clear shift above the $68,000–$69,000 zone could retarget the immediate resistance and potentially alter the near-term outlook, while continued macro fragility could keep Bitcoin tethered to the current range. market participants will also monitor on-chain signals for renewed demand and any changes in whale behavior as the market moves into April.
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