This year’s Stanley Cup Playoffs have an interesting mix of returning contenders and new challengers rising up out of rebuilds.

The Tampa Bay Lightning are in a dead-heat with the Montreal Canadiens, an older multi-time Cup winner against the youngest group in these playoffs. The Edmonton Oilers are in a 3-1 hole to Anaheim, the back-to-back finalists having a heckuva time against another younger team fresh out of a rebuild. The Central Division has gone as expected, with Presidents’ Trophy-winning Colorado rolling through Los Angeles and waiting on the winner of a tight Dallas-Minnesota series.

These are the games every team wants to be playing.

But as these 16 teams battle it out in Round 1, 16 other teams are left planning for next season and charting a path towards getting back to the post-season themselves. And that’s what we’ll look at today, the biggest off-season question facing the 16 teams that did not make the 2026 Stanley Cup Playoffs.

Columbus Blue Jackets: What will a ‘culture change’ look like?

“If I’m back, I’m changing this culture.”

That’s what a clearly frustrated Rick Bowness told the media at the end of the regular season, after his team dropped 10 of its last 13 games and missed the playoffs by seven points. We now know that he will be back behind Columbus’ bench next season, so what does a different culture mean?

The first big thing to figure out is what GM Don Waddell is going to do with his UFAs. There are four big ones: Charlie Coyle, Mason Marchment, Erik Gudbranson and captain Boone Jenner.

Each of these players could have been moved at the deadline to avoid the scenario of losing them for nothing, but instead, the team took its shot at the playoffs. Now, it’s unlikely they’ll keep all of them, and they will have a choice to make. Certainly, letting the captain walk would be a culture-changing decision, but the 32-year-old is a fan favourite and the franchise’s all-time leader in games played.

Marchment was a mid-season trade acquisition who brought a flurry of offence and great size to the lineup — he played as high as the first line. Coyle is an important centre who had one of the better seasons in his career. And Gudbranson is a valued right-shot who brings snarl to the lineup.

The Blue Jackets have their restricted free agents to worry about too — No. 1 centre Adam Fantilli and starting goalie Jet Greaves are top of mind there. Columbus might not be able to afford to keep everyone, so we have to consider the possibility of trades, too.

But which moves would change the culture in the way Bowness envisions, and which might downgrade the lineup? When the head coach had his end-of-season outburst, he was targeting certain unnamed individuals.

“Don’t forget, during that I said there’s a few players in there that are happy that there’s no game or practice tomorrow,” Bowness said a few days after his blowup. “So I wasn’t painting the whole team with that brush. There are a couple of guys that I’ve got to get on board.”

Calgary Flames: How does the long-term plan look after the draft?

There isn’t anything major expected to go down in Calgary this summer. No coaching or GM replacement is coming, and there’s no urgency to return a greatly improved team after finishing 29th in the league this past season. The Flames may be active on the transaction front here and there, as GM Craig Conroy plainly pointed out at his year-end press conference, but the long-term plans are what will dictate Calgary’s actions.

And for them, that will start at the draft table. The Flames have two first-round picks, their own and Vegas’. Their own draft pick would currently be fourth overall, but they will have a 9.5 per cent chance at the lottery to move up to the first overall pick. Either slot will land them a top prospect.

Then they have four picks in the second round and two of them will be very early on: they have their own plus the Rangers’, who finished one spot worse than Calgary.

With eight picks overall in the first three rounds, plus another two first-round picks in 2027 and 2028, the Flames have a lot of draft capital, so a trade could even be on the table. The draft is likely to be Calgary’s biggest event this off-season and will begin to set the foundation for what’s to come.

Chicago Blackhawks: What will Connor Bedard’s next contract look like?

This was the question we asked at the end of last season and, surprisingly, the franchise centrepiece still hasn’t been extended. Now he’s just over two months away from becoming an RFA.

“I’m easy. I think the thing is we just said I’ll play and focus on the day-by-day,” Connor Bedard said at his year-end talk with the media. “I know I want to be here, and I know we’ll get it done soon. I don’t think if it’s not done in a month there’s any worry or anything.”

Meantime, the NHL salary cap continues to soar and will rise from $95.5 million this season to $104 million in 2026-27, and it’s against that upper limit we should consider what Bedard’s number will be. The post-pandemic inflation we’ve seen has completely changed the contract landscape, but we’re still just getting started, given the 2027-28 cap will reach $113.5 million.

The best recent comparable for Bedard — the first overall draft pick in 2023 — is Logan Cooley, the No. 3 overall pick from 2022. Cooley re-upped with Utah this past October on an eight-year extension and $10 million cap hit. That contract does not start until next season, so that rate will account for 9.62 per cent of next year’s cap.

Both of these players are now through three full NHL regular seasons. Bedard, in 219 games, has 75 goals and 203 points. Cooley, in 211 games, has 69 goals and 152 points. Bedard is coming off a career-best season, and between the two players, he’s the only one with a better-than-point-per-game season under his belt. Cooley, as good as he is, is not Utah’s No. 1 centre, nor their leading scorer, and not (yet anyway) the face of the franchise. Bedard is all of the above to the Blackhawks.

The highest “percentage against the cap” a recent RFA has signed for is Tim Stutzle, who signed at 10 percent on a deal that began in 2023. His current cap hit is $8.35 million.

If Bedard were to sign at that rate, his next AAV would be $10.4 million, but again, given Bedard’s first three years were more productive than Stutzle’s, we would anticipate him coming higher than that on an eight-year extension.

Chicago’s highest-paid active player is Andre Burakovsky, who’s making $5.5 million against the cap, and it’s worth wondering if Bedard could double that on his next deal.

Detroit Red Wings: How will they get better players?

A full decade now without a playoff appearance, seven of those with Steve Yzerman at the helm, and the Red Wings are left asking themselves, how do we get back to the playoffs? Well, Yzerman was blunt in answering that last week.

“We need better players,” he said.

The Red Wings were in control of their destiny this season, but a late-season collapse put them in the same place they’ve been the past couple of years. They’re past being a bottom-of-the-standings team with great odds at the draft lottery, but not yet good enough to compete in the post-season. For years, Yzerman wasn’t big on adding players through trade at the deadline, and Dylan Larkin voiced his frustration over that last season. This year, Yzerman was active by bringing in Justin Faulk and David Perron, but it didn’t propel them forward.

Hope remains, and prospects are still making their way through the system, towards the NHL. But now Yzerman sounds like a GM ready to be more active and perhaps more aggressive in changing his group somewhat this summer.

“I don’t think I’m just going to sit and hope for the best,” he said. “I’m very disappointed how this season played out.”

Florida Panthers: Who’s going to be the goaltender next season?

There is every expectation that the Panthers will be back next season. Every forward and defenceman considered part of the “core” is already under contract, and there are only depth UFAs to either re-sign or replace. None of that will be overly expensive. All their injuries should be healed, everyone should be ready for training camp, and so, barring something unforeseen, Florida should be back in the playoff mix in 2027.

There is one major dangling question about the roster, and it’s at the most important position. Sergei Bobrovsky, who will be 38 by the time next season begins, will be a UFA on July 1 as his $10 million AAV contract comes to an end. He’s also coming off the worst season of his career with an .877 save percentage, 3.07 GAA and a minus-12.2 Goals Saved Above Expected mark that ranked 90th out of 98 goalies.

In a mid-March 32 Thoughts column, Elliotte Friedman wrote that Bobrovsky’s side was interested in a contract similar to Brad Marchand, who signed a six-year extension at a $5.25 million cap hit at age 37. Friedman also noted that the Panthers weren’t interested in doing that with Bobrovsky.

Bobrovsky will certainly get a pay cut from $10 million, but on a one- or two-year contract, might still be worth $7-9 million. Is it that simple for the Panthers to run it back, or is that now too risky?

Backup Daniil Tarasov was the better of the two goalies this season in 33 games played, but even he had below league-average numbers. The 27-year-old is also a pending UFA, so Florida doesn’t currently have any goalies under contract for next season.

Jordan Binnington is the most discussed trade option, and though he’s also coming off a terrible season (he was dead last in GSAE), perhaps having the Panthers in front of him would lead to a bounce back.

“What do the analytics tell you? They tell you Florida is a team that defends really well off the rush. When they won their two Stanley Cups, they didn’t give up a lick off the rush,” Steve Valiquette, President and Chief Executive Officer for Clear Sight Analytics, said on Real Kyper and Bourne. “Binnington is really good when he gets to play the shooter, gets to over-challenge and just play his 1-on-1 hockey. He gets hurt on the backside when he over-challenges. Florida can protect him there. He has the pedigree and ability to go in and play big game hockey.”

At the very least, if the Panthers did bring Bobrovsky back, they’d still need a quality backup, as that player might have to take on a bigger workload if the starter falters again.

Nashville Predators: Who’s the next GM and what will their vision be?

Whether it’s a first-time NHL GM, like a Brett Peterson or Bill Scott, or someone who’s had that job before, like Peter Chiarelli or Tom Fitzgerald, the Predators’ search for Barry Trotz’s replacement is still ongoing.

The big takeaway from this season can be hard to figure out. After winning the 2024 off-season and then falling way short of the playoffs in 2025, the Predators had another terrible beginning in 2025-26 and looked on the way to another disaster. But they did seem to turn a corner, got into the playoff race, and fell short of the wild card by four points.

Speculation of a rebuild had been thrown around, and questions were asked of the veterans about wanting to be part of something like that. Now leaderless in the front office, it was impossible to get a read on what the plans would be from here until the next GM takes over.

“I think the message was the expectation is still to be a competitive team and push for the playoffs,” Steven Stamkos said at his year-end media conference. “I don’t anticipate any huge changes. We’ve kinda talked about, is there going to be a rebuild, this and that, and I think it’s probably safe to say that’s not going to be the case. I think we all want to be part of the solution.”

New Jersey Devils: What impact will ‘analytics guy’ Sunny Mehta have?

Tom Fitzgerald was let go as GM, and while the Devils have a lot of great players already in place, their trajectory is a reminder that not all rebuilding teams ascend in the same straight line. It’s been bumpy for sure, and now the job of charting a direction towards success falls on new GM Sunny Mehta.

Deemed an analytics guy because of his background in poker, options trading and for his role with Florida’s front office, Mehta considers himself more than just a numbers guy. At his introductory press conference, he talked about “blending” data with more traditional measures and what he’ll take away from working under Bill Zito in Florida.

“Bill’s biggest strength was aggregating information. His biggest strength was embracing lots of different viewpoints in our front office, having traditions scouts, young scouts, older scouts, having a lot of emphasis on data and analytics, sports science, leave no stone unturned,” Mehta said. “And to me, his biggest strength was taking all that information, making sense of it, aggregating it, and he did a phenomenal job of decision making, and that’s pretty much exactly what I want to do here.”

So what do you do now with a team that underperformed so much? Mehta explained how he thought the Devils had a “framework to win right away” but that the long-term view remained important. One of the bigger player questions has to do with Nico Hischier, who has one year left on his contract and could extend on July 1. Starter Jacob Markstrom will embark on a fresh two-year contract next season, but he was the second-best goalie on the team this year. Dougie Hamilton was part of trade rumours, as was younger defenceman Simon Nemec. Even head coach Sheldon Keefe’s future is up in the air as Mehta intends to go through a review process throughout the organization.

It’s always fascinating to see how a first-time GM will proceed, and Mehta comes with extra intrigue given the hype around him, the fact that he was part of a back-to-back Stanley Cup championship team, and his unorthodox background.

“To me, the reason I ever even cared about analytics, statistics, probability is because it helped me win,” he said. “It helped me win in poker, it helped me win on the trading floor, and it helped me win in hockey. And so that’s why I care about it. The blending, of course, that’s important. The same way that in poker it’s not just numbers, you have to have a feel for your opponent, you have to understand the subjectivity of bluffing, you have to understand the psychology. The same thing was true in trading. You have to have a feel for markets, you have to understand how news affects things, and subjectivity, human emotions affect things.

“Yes, data does undoubtedly give a huge advantage in hockey in terms of projecting future performance of players, but you have to understand all those same things, the character, the locker room, the culture, the intangibles, all that stuff matters.”

New York Islanders: Can they acquire more scoring?

Missing the playoffs for a second season in a row, the Islanders were in it until late in the season and certainly had some positive takeaways. Matthew Schaefer’s first season was a smashing success, and he’s a lock for the Calder Trophy. Ilya Sorokin was one of the best goalies this season, should be a finalist for the Vezina, and had a real shot at winning the award until his last weeks were a little more underwhelming.

But, for the second year in a row, the Islanders’ offence finished near the league’s bottom. They were 27th in 2024-25 and 25th in 2025-26. Their power play this season was 30th in the league. If they can find some more offence to punch into the lineup, it would go a long way for the team.

Where will that come from? The UFA market is notably thin, and the Islanders have a lot of players signed already. Captain Anders Lee is their most important UFA to figure out up front, and he’ll be 36 in July coming off a 19-goal season. Could we see any buyouts or trades to free up more cap room and roster space for a splash? It’s clear what New York’s biggest need is.

New York Rangers: Is there anything left undone at the trade deadline that will be revisited this off-season?

In a letter to their fans in January, GM Chris Drury said the Rangers would not stand pat with the group they had, and would engage in a “re-tool” of the roster. Artemi Panarin was traded a few weeks later, and while there were several rumours and plenty of speculation about who else could be moved out, the trade deadline itself was rather quiet for New York, and they faded into last place in the Eastern Conference.

Primarily, the focus will return to Vincent Trocheck and Braeden Schneider as off-season trade candidates. With the cap rising and even non-playoff teams able to get into buying mode, the offers may begin to approach GM Chris Drury’s asking price, and the Rangers could move both of them out. From there, we wonder if anything surprising might also be in the cards (Alexis Lafreniere?), but we have to keep in mind that the team has clearly stated it does not want to engage in a full-blown rebuild.

Seattle Kraken: What will the internal audit lead to?

In April, the Kraken parted ways with Ron Francis, the franchise’s first GM, who moved up into the president of hockey operations role after Jason Botterill was elevated to the GM last season. Under Francis, the Kraken did qualify for one playoff, but generally the team underwhelmed and lacked the star power to contend with some of the league’s better teams.

When Francis was let go, CEO Tod Leiweke said the organization would conduct a full and independent audit of the hockey operations to seek out any inefficiencies, what’s working, what’s not, and try to figure out how to attract and acquire players who will move the needle forward.

At the season-ending press conference with Botterill and Leiweke, there were a lot of buzzwords. They spoke of the promise the team has in its prospect pipeline, the belief the organization was headed in the right direction, how wonderful the city is to live in and how supportive ownership is. But, in a season where free agency isn’t the strongest and trading might be the best way to find a quick upgrade, how will any of this translate to tangible improvements? What if the audit reveals the Kraken need to take a stark step back and flirt with the idea of a rebuild?

That audit is still ongoing, and the results are yet to be determined. In the meantime, the Kraken hold two first-round picks in this draft (their own and Tampa Bay’s), and that is the next big date on their calendar.

San Jose Sharks: Will Celebrini get a contract extension this summer?

With 115 points this season, 19-year-old Macklin Celebrini finished fourth in league scoring and scored 56 more points than the next highest-scoring Shark. There’s a case to be made that he should win the Hart Trophy, that he’s the true “most valuable player” to his team this season, though that case may have been stronger had San Jose made the playoffs.

Celebrini wore an ‘A,’ and he made it onto Team Canada for the Olympics, where he played a leading role. Now he’s through two years of his entry-level contract and eligible to extend beginning on July 1.

“We haven’t really had any talks or discussions yet,” an unbothered Sharks GM Mike Grier said last week. “I don’t think there’s a huge rush on either side of it.”

Celebrini could do what Bedard did and play out the final season of his ELC before working on an extension. We discussed Bedard’s contract outlook above, and all of that is true for Celebrini, though his number should be expected to go even higher than Bedard’s. Celebrini could be the one to set a new bar for RFAs, possibly even by percentage of the cap, whenever he signs. It won’t be a small number.

St. Louis Blues: What will Alex Steen do with this roster?

Some big rumoured trades were bubbling around the Blues the past few trade deadlines, and while Doug Armstrong did move out a couple of his veterans this season, the more blockbuster-y deals will be saved for another day.

Alex Steen is the GM now, with Armstrong bumped upstairs. Steen has been learning under Armstrong for some time now, but we wonder if his vision will be any different, trade finger any itchier, than his predecessor, and we wonder when we’ll start seeing his plans in action.

“What I told the players right after the trade deadline is, for all intents and purposes, that Alex is the GM as far as you’re concerned now. There are no more trades, there are no more waivers (this season),” Armstrong said. “Now Alex has to put his stamp on the team in exit meetings and (set) his expectations.”

Toronto Maple Leafs: Who will be the next GM, and what plan did they present to get the job?

Will there be a president of hockey operations? Will there just be a GM? And if it is just a GM, will other hirings be made around him?

Right now, Mats Sundin’s involvement in whatever comes next in Toronto is what we’re wondering about. Could his role and decision impact what the overall makeup of the next front office setup will be?

“I think what we’re kind of awaiting here to see how this is all going to work is Mats Sundin’s decision, and we’ll see here that goes,” Elliotte Friedman said on Monday’s 32 Thoughts: The Podcast. “I have wondered if he’s contemplating a larger role than has been hinted or reported.”

Will John Chayka be part of this setup, or possibly Scott White? Maybe all three? This is the biggest piece of business hanging over the Leafs because whoever comes in next, and whatever their vision is, will directly impact any further questions about Auston Matthews, William Nylander and the team’s general direction.

Vancouver Canucks: Will Pettersson still be part of this team come September?

It’s always easier to move a big contract in the summer, but still, trading Elias Pettersson and his $11.6 million AAV will be a tall task. Another disappointing season — just 51 points — means his impact is far less than the money he’s being paid on a long-term contract. Can the Canucks even extract a return that will have a meaningful impact on their rebuild? Will they have to retain money to do so, and how much? There’s also the matter of the no-movement clause he has in the contract.

Once a centrepiece of the Canucks’ plan, Pettersson now seems on the outside of the core and leadership group. He has failed to score 20 goals two years in a row now, and the organization is looking down the long road of a rebuild. A little lottery luck and the first overall pick might help delay any huge changes, but Pettersson’s future with the club is certainly the biggest question mark now.

Washington Capitals: Will Ovechkin return?

The all-time leader in regular-season goals now, Alex Ovechkin, still has a couple of benchmarks to chase if he wants. Ovechkin is still 10 shy of tying Wayne Gretzky for most regular-season and playoff goals combined, which he could surpass next season. He’s also 71 shy of reaching 1,000 regular-season goals in his career, but would need at least two years to get to that mark.

Part of Ovechkin’s decision to retire or not will have to do with his family and his health, but another factor is the state of the NHL team.

“We have to fight for (the) Cup. That’s probably (the) biggest thing,” Ovechkin said.

When asked what he wanted to hear from Caps GM Craig Patrick about next season, Ovechkin joked, “Two more years, this is the contract, sign it.” He did sound optimistic about the organization’s direction, too, naming Cole Hutson and Ilya Protas as two up-and-comers who showed well in limited games at the end of the season.

Will all that be enough to persuade him to come back? And if he does, what will his next contract look like, after finishing one that paid him $9.5 million against the cap?

Winnipeg Jets: Can they piece together a quality second line?

The Mark Scheifele-Kyle Connor-Gabe Vilardi trio spent most of the season together, and they finished 1-2-3 in team scoring with 103, 92 and 69 points, respectively. Josh Morrissey’s 55 points were fourth-most on the team, and then Cole Perfetti was the next-most productive forward with 12 goals and 32 points.

That is a massive drop from first to second line.

Winnipeg’s biggest challenge has been finding a second line to support its first, since splitting up the Scheifele-Connor duo is not something the team has an interest in doing. Those two played 1,233 5-on-5 minutes together this season and just over 200 minutes apart.

Now, how the Jets find upgrades for the offence is the trick. Finding quality players who also want to come to Winnipeg can be a challenge, and the free agent pool is thin as it is. The organization will be hoping for more development internally, but there wasn’t much in the way of standout performances in the AHL either, where the highest scorer registered 44 points.

Meantime, Connor Hellebuyck’s stern end-of-season message to the team was clear: return to contending or difficult conversations will follow.