It was a catastrophic week in terms of price movements, but HYPE has defied the trend and stands out as a top performer.

The past few weeks have been anything but dull in the cryptocurrency markets. Unfortunately for the bulls, it’s not in their favor.

It all began last Saturday. Bitcoin had finally recovered some ground following the previous crash to $81,000 and stood around $83,000-$84,000, which was rather unusual as the two largest precious metals – assets known for their stability – crashed on Friday by double digits.

This heightened volatility reached BTC on Saturday when it dumped from $84,000 to under $76,000. The bulls tried to intervene, but all they could do was help BTC recover slightly to $79,000. The asset was quickly rejected there and dipped below $74,000 on Monday. The same failed rebound scenario repeated, and the bears took complete control of the market in the following days.

The culmination, at least for now, transpired yesterday. Another brutal sell-off drove the largest digital asset down to $60,000. As such, BTC not only erased all gains charted after Trump’s reelection victory in late 2024, but it actually dumped to under the levels from back then. Strategy’s bitcoin positions went deep in the red as the cryptocurrency dropped by $30,000 in just over a week.

The reasons behind this calamity may vary and are still debated by analysts. From rising geopolitical tensions to the new Fed Chair to excessive leverage in the markets. The fact is, though, the overall crash on Thursday alone wiped out more than $2.6 billion in leveraged positions.

Despite rebounding to $67,000 as of press time, BTC is still nearly 20% down weekly. Many altcoins have produced even more significant declines, such as ETH (-28%), BNB (-23%), LINK (-21%), XMR (-26%), and others. HYPE, on the other hand, continues to defy the overall trend and has soared by 19% within the same timeframe.

Market Data

Market Cap: $2.38T | 24H Vol: $360B | BTC Dominance: 56.6%

You may also like:

BTC: $67,200 (-18.4%) | ETH: $1,950 (-28.3%) | XRP: $1.43 (-20%)

This Week’s Crypto Headlines You Can’t Miss

Institutional Exit? US Investors Are Dumping ETH at a Record Rate. Even before Ethereum’s most significant decline to under $1,800, reports claimed that US-based investors had intensified the selling pressure, which was evident from the declining ETH Coinbase Premium Index.

Roubini Predicts a ‘Crypto Apocalypse’ Amidst Bitcoin’s Plunge Under Trump-Era Policies. These times of pure uncertainty and price calamity are the perfect opportunity for industry haters, such as Nouriel Roubini, to lash out again. Recently, the economist predicted a “crypto apocalypse,” explaining that the evolution of money and payments will be a gradual process, instead of the quick revolution promised by crypto advocates.

Michael Burry Warns Bitcoin Treasury Firms Face Existential Risk as BTC Slide Deepens. Michael Burry also spoke out after years of silence, warning that Bitcoin Treasury Companies could soon face liquidation threats if the cryptocurrency’s price declines continue.

Crypto Winter Has Been Here Since January 2025, But Recovery May Be Closer Than You Think. Despite the multiple new all-time highs registered by BTC last year before October, Bitwise’s CIO, Matt Hougan, recently asserted that the asset has been in a bear market since January 2025. More optimistically, though, he noted that the end may be closer than you expect.

Tom Lee Shrugs Off ETH Sell-Off, Says Fundamentals Don’t Match Falling Prices. Tom Lee, who has perhaps the largest exposure to ETH through Bitmine, dismissed the recent asset decline. Although Bitmine’s position is deep in the red, Lee said ETH’s crashing price doesn’t reflect the strong fundamentals behind the token and the network.

Bitcoin Trading at 41% Discount, Power-Law Model Shows $122K Fair Value. Basing their analysis using the power-law valuation model, market commentator David put BTC’s fair value at just under $123,000. If true, this would mean that the cryptocurrency currently trades with a massive discount of roughly 50%.

• Ethereum price is trading inside a huge channel on the monthly chart.
• Bitcoin’s crash to $60,000  dragged ETH to its intraday lows.
• After falling to lows of $1,748, ETH risks another leg down.

Ethereum’s price hovers above $1,960 as of writing on February 6, 2026.

This follows a sharp downturn in the past 24 hours, with the top altcoin crashing to lows of $1,700 amid broader market turbulence.

Bitcoin’s crash to $60,000, before rebounding to $67,000, dragged ETH to its intraday lows.

All the top altcoins, including Solana, BNB and XRP, fell sharply amid the bloodbath.

Ethereum price recap

Ethereum fell below $1,800 on Thursday, marking its weakest level since mid-2025 as heavy selling pressure intensified.

The decline followed a sharp drop in Bitcoin to around $60,000, which sent shockwaves through the broader crypto market.

Although prices have since recovered above $1,900, continued ETF outflows and a prevailing risk-off environment suggest bullish momentum remains fragile.

Ethereum is down more than 29% over the past week and about 40% over the past month, underscoring the depth of the recent sell-off.

ETH price prediction: could bears target $1,000 next?

Although bulls are targeting a move back above $2,000, the monthly chart points to a fragile price structure.

The chart paints a massive range with $4,900 forming the top established during the past bear cycle.

At the lower end, the parallel channel suggests potential downside toward the $1,000–$1,200 zone.

At present, the $1,800–$1,900 area aligns with support levels seen in April and May 2025, which were tested after ETH retraced from highs of around $4,100 in December 2024.

This overlap reinforces the zone’s importance in determining near-term price direction.

Analysts see this as a critical support zone, but if sellers breach it, it could give way to a downturn to levels untested since Ethereum’s 2022 bear market bottom.

As such, bulls must eye a notable bounce above $2,000. If this happens, the next targets lie in the $2,250-$2,700 range.

However, a breakdown below $1,800 risks testing $1,700 again.

This week’s breakdown aligns with a similar breakdown in March-April 2025, which put prices beneath a key uptrend line formed since the bullish flip in April 2020 after the COVID crash.

With bears having touched the mark already amid current bearish conditions, the picture isn’t in favour of bulls.

A revisit could open up a path to the multi-year demand reload zone around $1,250-$1,000. This area represents untapped liquidity from the 2022 lows.

Cardano price continued its strong downward trend, reaching its lowest level since February 2021, as the crypto market crash accelerated. 

Cardano (ADA) token was trading at $0.2650, down by 80% from its highest point in December 2024. It has also retreated by 91% from its all-time high of $3.

A potential catalyst for ADA’s price will be the upcoming CME Group futures listing on February 9 this year. This is a major listing that will make it available to institutional and retail traders.

Historically, such important launches normally lead to higher prices. For example, tokens such as Solana (SOL) and Ripple (XRP) jumped after their futures launched. 

However, in Cardano’s case, there is a possibility that the rebound will not happen after the futures launch. First, the launch will occur during a crypto market crash. As such, the broader sentiment in the industry may outweigh the importance of the futures listing.

Second, Cardano may remain under pressure since the ADA futures launch has been priced in by market participants. Additionally, Cardano has lost favor with investors in the past few years because it has been left behind by similar chains like Solana, BNB Chain, and Ethereum. 

Cardano has failed to attract major oracle networks like Chainlink. Its total value locked in the DeFi industry is less than $300 million, which is much lower than the billions in assets in the industry. Also, it has a small market share in the stablecoin industry, with just $30 million in assets.

Charles Hoskinson and the team are working to address these issues through a 70 million ADA fund launched last year. The fund’s goal is to attract more oracles, tier-1 stablecoins, and analytics tools. Also, Cardano is preparing for the Midnight mainnet launch either this month or in March.

Cardano price technical analysis 

The weekly chart shows that the ADA token has been in a strong downtrend in the past few months. It retreated from a high of $1.3296 in December 2024 to a low of $0.2360. Its lowest level this week was notable as it has failed to move below it several times since December 2022.

ADA price has moved below the 50-week and 100-week Exponential Moving Averages, which have made a bearish crossover. The Relative Strength Index has moved into the oversold zone at 30.

Therefore, the most likely Cardano price prediction is neutral. On the positive side, it has always bounced back whenever it reached this support level. This means that it may rebound again in the coming weeks.

On the other hand, losing this support will lead to more downside, potentially to the key level at $0.100.

As the weekend approaches, select altcoins are flashing early signals that could define short-term price action. From renewed bullish momentum to deep drawdowns hinting at exhaustion, the market is offering a mixed technical outlook.

BeInCrypto has analysed three such tokens that the investors should watch going into the weekend.

Sponsored

Sponsored

Decred (DCR)

Decred has produced a strong bullish expansion, rallying sharply to $24.70 after reclaiming the $20.22 pivot. The impulsive candle confirms buyers regaining control following a higher-low structure above $17.45. This move shifts short-term momentum decisively bullish after a prolonged consolidation phase.

Holding above $22.84 keeps upside momentum intact, with $25.94 as the next key resistance. A daily close above $25.94 would open a move toward $30.06. Notably, DCR shows a weak negative correlation of -0.09 with Bitcoin, suggesting relative insulation from broader BTC volatility.

Want more token insights like this? Sign up for Editor Harsh Notariya’s Daily Crypto Newsletter here.

The bullish scenario is invalidated on a daily close below $20.22. A failure there would shift momentum back to neutral and expose $18.79. Losing $17.45 would fully break the higher-low structure and confirm a return to broader downside or prolonged consolidation.

Sponsored

Sponsored

Polygon (POL)

POL extended losses, setting a new all-time low at $0.0839. The altcoin briefly plunged 22.8% before recovering part of the drop. It closed the session down 12.8%, reflecting persistent selling pressure and weak market confidence as POL continues to struggle for a stable price base.

On-chain signals offer cautious optimism. The Chaikin Money Flow is forming a bullish divergence with the POL price, indicating declining outflows despite continued weakness. This shift suggests improving demand beneath the surface, which could help POL reclaim $0.1024 and extend a recovery toward the $0.1193 resistance.

However, downside risks remain elevated if sentiment fails to improve. Continued bearish momentum could force POL to print additional all-time lows. As a result, such a move would negate the emerging bullish divergence, reinforce the prevailing downtrend, and delay any meaningful recovery as sellers maintain control over price action.

Optimism (OP)

OP set a new all-time low during Friday’s intraday session, falling to $0.1579. The move extended a persistent downtrend that has pressured prices all week. OP’s cumulative decline is now near 40%, highlighting sustained selling pressure and weakening investor confidence across recent trading sessions.

Momentum indicators suggest selling pressure may be nearing exhaustion. The Money Flow Index is close to slipping into oversold territory, a level historically linked with reversals. If confirmed, this could encourage dip buying and help OP reclaim $0.1817, opening upside toward $0.2128 or $0.2506.

On the other hand, bearish risk remains elevated if market sentiment continues to deteriorate. Failure to stabilize could push OP below $0.1579. At the same time, a fresh all-time low would invalidate the bullish divergence setup, reinforce the prevailing downtrend, and delay any recovery attempt as sellers retain control.

• ai.com lets users create a personal AI agent in about 60 seconds, with no coding required.
• Agents can execute tasks across apps and build new capabilities when needed.
• Improvements are shared across the network, boosting overall agent performance.

The race to move artificial intelligence from conversation to execution is accelerating.

ai.com, a new consumer AI platform founded by crypto executive Kris Marszalek, is entering the market with autonomous AI agents designed to act on users’ behalf, not just answer prompts.

The company says its agents can organize work, execute tasks across apps and even build missing tools themselves, a step that could push AI deeper into everyday digital life.

From crypto scale to consumer AI ambition

ai.com is led by Kris Marszalek, best known as co-founder and CEO of Crypto.com, one of the world’s largest consumer crypto platforms.

Marszalek will continue to lead both companies, positioning ai.com as a mass-market AI play rather than a niche developer tool.

The platform allows users to generate a personal AI agent in about 60 seconds, with no coding or technical setup.

Unlike standard chatbots, these agents are designed to carry out actions like sending messages, managing calendars, automating workflows or building simple projects.

ai.com says agents can even create new capabilities on their own if a task requires functionality that does not yet exist.

Those improvements, once validated, are shared across the wider agent network. In theory, that creates a flywheel effect: the more agents are used, the more capable all agents become.

Marszalek has framed this as a decentralized system that could speed progress toward artificial general intelligence, or AGI: AI systems that can perform a wide range of tasks at a human-like level.

“We are at a fundamental shift in AI’s evolution as we rapidly move beyond basic chats to AI agents actually getting things done for humans,” said Kris Marszalek, Founder and CEO of ai.com.

Our vision is a decentralized network of billions of agents who self-improve and share these improvements with each other, vastly and rapidly expanding agentic capabilities and accelerating the advent of AGI.

ai.com will officially launch its agent product on February 8, 2026, with a high-profile advertising debut during Super Bowl LX on NBC.

Autonomy meets privacy and regulation

While the promise is bold, autonomous agents raise immediate questions around safety, privacy and accountability.

ai.com says each agent operates in a secure, isolated environment where user data is encrypted with individual keys and actions are limited strictly by user permissions.

That architecture will be tested quickly if agents are allowed to trade stocks, handle payments or interact with third-party platforms.

Financial regulators, in particular, are likely to scrutinize how responsibility is assigned when an AI agent makes a mistake or executes a harmful action.

The company says users will retain full control, with all actions permission-based. Still, the real challenge will be proving that consumer-grade autonomy can scale without introducing new risks.

ai.com is free to start, with paid subscription tiers offering more advanced capabilities.

Additional features under exploration include financial integrations, agent marketplaces and social networks connecting humans, agents and agencies.

For now, ai.com’s launch signals a shift in the consumer AI narrative, away from asking questions and toward getting things done.

Editor’s note: This release outlines how Amazon enters its fourth-quarter earnings period with improving investor sentiment, driven largely by stronger-than-expected performance from Amazon Web Services. Cloud growth and resilient demand have become central to the market narrative, alongside expectations that AI-related workloads will scale further in 2026. The commentary also highlights investor focus on valuation, operating margins, capital expenditure discipline, and the advertising business, while pointing to longer-term optionality from logistics automation, AI monetisation, satellite connectivity, and potential pricing changes across the Prime ecosystem.

Key points

• AWS growth exceeded expectations, supporting confidence ahead of Q4 earnings.
• Investor sentiment is closely tied to cloud capacity expansion and sustained demand.
• AI-driven workloads are expected to be a major factor shaping AWS performance in 2026.
• Amazon’s valuation is viewed as relatively modest compared with long-term earnings potential.
• Profitability drivers include margin expansion, capex discipline, and advertising growth.

Why this matters

Amazon’s cloud performance is increasingly important for investors assessing earnings quality and long-term growth. AWS sits at the intersection of cloud infrastructure and AI adoption, making its trajectory relevant for enterprise customers, developers, and the broader digital economy. For markets, the balance between continued investment and margin improvement will be key in determining whether stronger cloud momentum can translate into sustained shareholder value.

What to watch next

• Fourth-quarter earnings results and updated guidance for AWS growth.
• Signals on AI workload scaling and related infrastructure investment.
• Developments in operating margins, capital expenditure, and advertising revenue.

Disclosure: The content below is a press release provided by the company/PR representative. It is published for informational purposes.

Abu Dhabi, United Arab Emirates – February 05, 2026: Amazon (NASDAQ: AMZN) is entering its fourth-quarter earnings period with improving investor confidence, supported by a strong performance in the previous quarter and growing optimism around its cloud computing division, Amazon Web Services (AWS).

Cloud momentum has been a key driver of sentiment, with AWS growth coming in ahead of expectations and clear signs that demand remains resilient as capacity continues to expand.

Commenting on the outlook, Lale Akoner, Global Market Analyst, said:
“Momentum in AWS has been a major positive for Amazon, with cloud growth exceeding expectations and demand remaining healthy as capacity scales. This has played an important role in strengthening investor confidence heading into the fourth quarter.”

Looking ahead, 2026 is expected to be a pivotal year for AWS, particularly as AI-related workloads continue to scale. Investors are increasingly focused on whether accelerating cloud growth can translate into stronger earnings momentum and support a higher valuation. At current levels, Amazon shares trade at a relatively modest multiple of long-term earnings, further contributing to the improving sentiment.

Beyond cloud, market attention is also centred on Amazon’s path to higher profitability. This includes potential operating margin expansion, continued discipline around capital expenditure, and sustained growth in the advertising business.

Over the longer term, additional upside could come from logistics automation, broader monetisation of AI across consumer products, new revenue streams such as satellite internet, and the potential for future Prime subscription price increases.

Media Contact:
PR@etoro.com

About eToro

eToro is the trading and investing platform that empowers you to invest, share and learn. We were founded in 2007 with the vision of a world where everyone can trade and invest in a simple and transparent way. Today we have 40 million registered users from 75 countries. We believe there is power in shared knowledge and that we can become more successful by investing together. So we’ve created a collaborative investment community designed to provide you with the tools you need to grow your knowledge and wealth. On eToro, you can hold a range of traditional and innovative assets and choose how you invest: trade directly, invest in a portfolio, or copy other investors. You can visit our media centre here for our latest news.

As the United States moves toward the 2026 midterm elections, crypto industry lobbying and fundraising activity has accelerated, highlighting a strategic shift in how the sector seeks to shape policy. Super PACs linked to crypto interests have begun pooling funds, with a notable fundraising push that includes a main industry vehicle and prominent tech donors. The landscape features a blend of bipartisan engagement and party-aligned advocacy, underscored by legislative efforts such as the CLARITY Act, which has stalled in the Senate even as committees in the House advance. This push comes amid a broader backdrop of regulatory scrutiny, market volatility, and debates over how best to foster innovation while protecting consumers.

Key takeaways

• The crypto sector’s political spending surged last cycle, with total contributions reaching at least $245 million in 2024, signaling a robust, well-funded lobbying posture ahead of midterm elections.
• Fairshake, the industry’s leading super PAC, raised about $133 million in 2025 and now holds more than $190 million in cash on hand, reflecting significant donor commitments from major players including a16z, Coinbase, and Ripple.
• Discontent about influence in Washington is real among reform groups, who warn that large, industry-aligned money can marginalize ordinary voters and complicate democratic processes.
• Crypto donors are pursuing a bipartisan strategy, supporting both parties or pivoting to align with policymakers who promise a friendlier regulatory environment, while some in Congress push for a unified framework like the CLARITY Act.
• Historical context matters: the sector’s political clout has grown since the 2020–2021 lobbying surge and the FTX collapse, which did not halt the industry’s push to engage lawmakers and shape policy on market structure and consumer protection.

Tickers mentioned: $BTC, $ETH, $COIN

Market context: As the midterm cycle sharpens, the crypto lobby’s visibility in Washington mirrors broader regulatory debates and a shifting investment climate. The policy trajectory—particularly around market structure and stablecoins—remains uncertain, even as lobby groups deploy sizable resources to influence committees and votes.

Why it matters

The scale of money funneled into crypto lobbying marks a meaningful departure from earlier eras of campaign finance. Industry-aligned super PACs have become major players, capable of marshaling independent expenditures and transfers to allied committees in a way that can outpace more traditional advocacy channels. This dynamic matters for users, investors, and builders because policy decisions—ranging from regulatory clarity to enforcement actions—directly affect product innovation, market access, and consumer protections.

Observers say the growing influence of well-funded crypto PACs is changing the calculus inside Congress. While some lawmakers welcome clearer rules and a predictable regulatory environment, critics argue that high-dollar donations risk sidelining everyday constituents and distorting legislative priorities. The tension between fostering innovation and imposing guardrails is at the core of ongoing debates about market structure, stablecoins, and the broader crypto economy. The argument is not merely about dollars and elections; it touches the core question of how the American political system can balance rapid technological change with responsible oversight.

Within this landscape, the industry’s messaging is increasingly tailored to bipartisan themes, while some prominent figures invest in politically aligned avenues that promise favorable outcomes. The Winklevoss twins’ support for a conservative pro-crypto fund, for example, underscores a strategic tilt toward candidates perceived as crypto-friendly, even as others push for more centrist or Democratic support to maintain broad accessibility to policymakers. The result is a more nuanced, multi-faceted lobbying approach that seeks to hedge policy risk across party lines and ideological spectrums.

Looking back, the sector’s political activity has evolved alongside its own evolution as a market sector. During the 2020–2021 bull run, crypto firms ramped up advertising and public-relations campaigns, while high-profile names in the industry entered politics or attempted to influence policy through visible campaigns. The FTX saga and related enforcement actions accelerated a broader embrace of Washington engagement, as industry participants sought to define a path toward functioning product rails under a potential regulatory framework.

In Congress, the debate often centers on balance. Proponents argue that a comprehensive framework could unlock innovation and reduce uncertainty, while opponents warn against overreach that could stifle the development of new financial products. The debate around a major piece of legislation, commonly referred to as the CLARITY Act, illustrates this tug-of-war: supporters contend that clear rules would legitimize the sector and invite responsible participants to operate within a defined system, whereas critics warn that the bill may still fall short of satisfying industry stakeholders and ethics officials in the Senate.

One notable donor in the crypto space—Bankman-Fried—made headlines years earlier with immense campaign contributions, a fact cited by prosecutors as part of a broader indictment about how influence was used to push for policies favorable to his business interests. His case serves as a cautionary backdrop to current financing strategies, illustrating how the line between political advocacy and business priorities can blur in high-velocity markets. While Bankman-Fried has faced severe legal scrutiny, the broader ecosystem continues to pursue access to policymakers, albeit with increased attention on governance, compliance, and transparency.

As the 2024 cycle demonstrated, crypto funding did not merely surge; it also diversified. The Fairshake network, originally built as a single-issue pro-crypto fund, grew into a hub for multiple committees and independent expenditures. Its disclosed activity included substantial support for Democrats during the 2023–2024 period, alongside other, more conservative-aligned committees. This diversification is indicative of a broader strategy: deploying resources to achieve leverage across the political spectrum, while maintaining an emphasis on lawmakers perceived as aligned with crypto-friendly regulatory approaches.

“Super PACs are increasingly becoming in vogue for special interests who want to make their presence known in Washington,” said Michael Beckel, research director of Issue One, noting that large, industry-backed reservoirs of cash have become a significant force in shaping policy outcomes. As a result, the cadence and flow of money—both donations and independent expenditures—have become a persistent feature of the policy landscape, with significant implications for how regulations are written and how quickly they move through Congress.

“Industry-aligned super PACs with huge bank accounts have made a huge splash and helped thwart new regulations on their business interests.”

Beyond the halls of Congress, attention has turned to broader governance questions, including the ongoing debate around market structure, consumer protections, and the role of stablecoins in a broad financial ecosystem. The White House has hosted closed-door discussions among crypto and banking leaders in a bid to bridge gaps, but public progress remains cautious, with officials signaling that meaningful consensus may require additional time and negotiation. The dynamic between White House oversight, Senate deliberations, and industry lobbying will likely shape the regulatory timetable for years to come.

As election season resumes, the crypto lobby’s influence remains a core variable in policy outcomes. The sector’s strategy—balancing donor networks, bipartisan outreach, and legislative pressure—highlights how political influence now intersects with technology policy in a way that goes beyond traditional lobbying. If lawmakers can craft a coherent, forward-looking framework that protects consumers while enabling innovation, it could mark a watershed moment for both the crypto industry and the broader financial ecosystem. If not, the divergence between policy ambitions and practical implementation could prolong regulatory uncertainty for years ahead.

What to watch next

• Tracking the CLARITY Act’s status in the Senate and any new consensus on market structure legislation (dates and committee votes).
• Updates on major crypto donors’ disclosures and whether new transparency rules affect PACs and independent expenditures.
• White House-industry talks outcomes and potential regulatory proposals touching stablecoins and consumer protections.
• Upcoming midterm dynamics and how shifts in party control may influence crypto-friendly policy initiatives.
• Monitoring any shifts in the funding strategy of Fairshake and its affiliated committees as the 2026 cycle approaches.

Sources & verification

• FEC committee records for Fairshake (C00835959) and its 2024–2025 activity.
• Open Secrets data on Fairshake expenditures and donor contributions from 2023–2024.
• Reuters reporting on Bankman-Fried’s political donations and related investigations.
• Politico commentary on the blockchain network and party strategy in 2025.
• Senate roll-call votes related to the GENIUS Act and related crypto policy debates.

Crypto money and the midterm race: donors, policy, and power

Political action committees representing the crypto industry have already mobilized substantial funding as the United States heads toward its 2026 midterm elections. The focal point is a blend of large, unrestricted sums and more targeted campaigns designed to influence key policymakers and committees. The industry’s flagship super PAC, Fairshake, has emerged as a central vehicle for fundraising and political spending, with documented contributions and independent expenditures that exceed a century-and-a-half in collective capacity when combined with allied groups.

Last year, the crypto industry spent at least $245 million on campaign contributions, a figure that underscored the sector’s appetite for influence. The main super PAC funded by the industry, Fairshake, raised about $133 million in 2025, and its cash on hand now exceeds $190 million. Notable backers include venture-capital powerhouse a16z which contributed an initial $24 million, with Coinbase and Ripple each donating $25 million. The scale here is not merely academic: it represents a deliberate attempt to tilt regulatory and legislative outcomes in ways that supporters argue will create a more predictable environment for innovation and growth, while critics warn of the democratic perils of concentrated influence.

Activist groups have pressed back, arguing that large, industry-backed money undermines the voice of everyday Americans. “This kind of influence buying ultimately undermines the democratic process by marginalizing everyday Americans, ensuring that their voices and interests take a backseat to the crypto industry’s deregulatory desires,” said Saurav Ghosh, director of the Campaign Legal Center. The concern is not limited to the abstract; it centers on the real-world risk that policy outcomes could skew toward a narrow set of corporate interests rather than broad public goals, particularly as midterm dynamics favor the party controlling the House, Senate, or White House.

The broader political calculus shows crypto lobbying pursuing a degree of bipartisanship, even as the industry remains most comfortable with a regulatory posture that favors innovation. The Senate’s posture toward the CLARITY Act remains a barometer of how far policymakers are willing to go in crafting a comprehensive framework. The act advanced in the House this summer, but in the Senate it has yet to reach a conclusion that satisfies the governance and ethics concerns raised by many Democrats. In the interim, crypto advocates have sought to demonstrate broad-based appeal, balancing support within both major parties and pushing a long-term vision of a policy regime that accommodates new financial technologies without compromising consumer protections.

Publicly, some in the industry emphasize the necessity of nonpartisan engagement. Representative Sam Liccardo, a crypto-friendly Democrat, suggested that no industry should “put eggs in one basket,” signaling a preference for diversified political support. Yet others warn that aligning too closely with one party could backfire as political winds shift. The Winklevoss twins’ strategic donations to Digital Freedom Fund illustrate how industry actors are attempting to influence the policy conversation from multiple angles, covering both conservative and liberal lanes in pursuit of favorable regulatory outcomes.

The policy dialogue has also intersected with discussions about market structure and consumer protections, with Coinbase’s leadership engaging in public debates about proposed restrictions on stablecoin yields. Coinbase argued that a blanket ban could stifle innovation and impede legitimate financial services, while supporters of tighter controls contend that consumer safety cannot be compromised in the name of rapid innovation. The White House has attempted to broker a dialogue on these issues, hosting a closed-door summit with leaders from both crypto and banking sectors; however, Reuters reports that the gathering did not yield a definitive breakthrough on policy alignment.

The broader context is a political environment in which the crypto industry’s influence is increasingly visible and, for some observers, troubling. Critics warn that a system in which wealthier donors shape policy can cast doubt on the electorate’s ability to influence outcomes. Election-oversight advocates argue that this trend could erode trust in democratic institutions if policy results appear engineered to accommodate corporate interests rather than public benefit. In this light, the ongoing lobbying activity surrounding the CLARITY Act, the market structure debate, and related regulatory proposals will be essential to watch as the 2026 midterms approach.

As with any sector undergoing rapid evolution, the stakes are high for users, investors, and builders who rely on a stable, transparent policy framework. The current cycle demonstrates that money, messaging, and momentum can affect the speed and direction of regulatory developments, even in a landscape as complex and dynamic as crypto. The coming months will reveal whether policymakers can translate high-level objectives into clear, workable rules that support innovation while safeguarding the integrity of financial markets.

Is XRP’s recovery sustainable or is this just a dead cat bounce?

Ripple’s cross-border token nosedived to a 14-month low amid the recent crash of the broader cryptocurrency market.

Despite the brutal collapse and the bearish conditions, one important indicator suggests that a short-term resurgence could be on the horizon.

The Light at the End of the Tunnel

The past 24 hours have been ruthless for the digital asset sector, and XRP undoubtedly felt the impact. Its valuation plummeted to $1.11 (per CoinGecko’s data), the lowest level since November 2024, while its market capitalization briefly shrank to nearly $70 billion.

The violent move south has caused the asset’s Relative Strength Index (RSI) to reenter territory last seen during the October 2025 collapse. The technical analysis tool measures the speed and magnitude of recent price changes and ranges from 0 to 100.

Ratios below 30 suggest that the valuation has declined too much in a short period of time, meaning the token is oversold and ready for a potential rebound. On the contrary, anything above 70 is considered a bearish zone. Hours ago, XRP’s RSI fell to 13, but later rose to the current 40.

Meanwhile, the asset’s price has regained some lost ground to nearly $1.40, raising the question of whether this marks the beginning of a genuine recovery or simply represents a dead-cat bounce.

It is important to note that over the past few days, the spot XRP ETF netflows have been positive, suggesting that institutional investors remain interested in the asset. To put this into perspective, the same investment vehicles focused on Bitcoin (BTC) and Ethereum (ETH) have experienced massive red daily candles.

You may also like:

Not so Fast

Despite the optimistic signals mentioned above, some industry participants believe that a further crash is imminent. X user FEXIR | CRYPTO predicted that XRP may tumble below $0.50, while Charting Guy warned that the price could fall to $1.

The increasing number of tokens stored on Binance reinforces fears of an additional crash. Data provided by CryptoQuant shows that investors have been transferring coins from self-custody to the biggest exchange in the past week, and now the reserves stand at almost 2.73 billion XRP. Such a development is often interpreted as a pre-sale step.

While the leading cryptocurrency was trading above $125k in October 2025, it fell to around $60k yesterday. The decline accelerated sharply — a pattern typical of panic-driven markets where excessive leverage is widely used. According to Coinglass, roughly $2bn worth of long positions were liquidated across crypto exchanges over the past 24 hours.

Bitcoin’s drop of more than 50% over five months has had a direct impact on Coinbase (COIN) shares, which slid below $150 for the first time since April 2025.

Technical analysis of COIN shares

Recall that on 16 January, when analysing the Coinbase (COIN) chart, we:

→ highlighted bearish signals, including a bull trap at peak B;
→ outlined a descending red price channel;
→ suggested that despite COIN trading near a key support area (marked in blue), a strong bullish reversal was unlikely.

Since then:

→ the narrow candle bodies between 20 and 28 January showed that buyers attempted to defend the highlighted support zone, but without success;
→ on 29 January, price broke bearishly below the long-term ascending channel (shown in black), after which COIN continued to fall without finding support. As a result, 13 consecutive bearish daily candles formed.

That said, the extreme fear currently dominating the market is creating conditions for a technical rebound:

→ the RSI indicator has fallen to its lowest level since COIN began trading on the Nasdaq, encouraging profit-taking on short positions;
→ price is hovering near the lower boundary of the descending channel, which has now doubled in width;
→ price is also close to the $145 level, which acted as support in 2024–2025. A false bearish break below this area cannot be ruled out, potentially triggering a psychological shift and altering the balance between supply and demand.

It is reasonable to assume that the sharp collapse in COIN’s share price could attract large-scale investors who may view it as undervalued from a long-term perspective.

Sentiment could also improve following the release of the quarterly earnings report, scheduled for 12 February, as well as the exchange’s strategic plans for 2026.

Buy and sell stocks of the world’s biggest publicly-listed companies with CFDs on FXOpen’s trading platform. Open your FXOpen account now or learn more about trading share CFDs with FXOpen.

This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.

In Smart Money Concept (SMC) trading, recognising when market momentum shifts can mean the difference between catching a trend reversal and holding a losing position. The Change of Character (CHoCH) is a price action pattern that can signal these pivotal moments when the balance between buyers and sellers tips. Unlike continuation patterns that confirm ongoing momentum, a CHoCH alerts traders to prepare for directional changes.

This article explores how to identify CHoCH patterns on a chart, explains how they differ from similar concepts like Break of Structure and Market Structure Shift, and demonstrates their practical application through real trading examples.

Advertisement

Takeaways

• CHoCH is a concept that signals potential trend reversals in Smart Money Concept trading. This pattern has two forms: bullish CHoCH and bearish CHoCH. A bullish CHoCH occurs when price breaks above a recent lower high in a downtrend, while a bearish CHoCH happens when price falls below a recent higher low in an uptrend, indicating possible momentum shifts.
• A CHoCH is usually compared to a Break of Structure (BOS). However, these concepts are opposite. BOS confirms trend continuation by breaking in the direction of the existing trend, whereas CHoCH signals a potential reversal by breaking against the prevailing trend.
• Another common pattern the CHoCH is compared to is a Market Structure Shift (MSS).  However, MSS is a higher-confluence CHoCH that includes additional confirmation signals like a lower high (bearish) or higher low (bullish) before the break, plus strong displacement.
• Change of Character patterns can be found across all timeframes, from intraday to weekly charts, with higher-timeframe signals generally carrying more significance.

Understanding Breaks of Structure

Before delving into concepts like Change of Character (CHoCH) traders should understand the Breaks of Structure (BOS) pattern. A BOS in trading signifies a continuation within the current trend and is marked by a clear deviation from established swing points that indicate previous highs and lows.

In the context of an uptrend, a BOS is identified when the price exceeds a previous high without moving below the most recent higher low. This action confirms that the upward momentum is still strong and likely to continue as buyers push the market to new heights.

Similarly, in a downtrend, a BOS occurs when prices drop below a previous low without breaking the prior lower high, suggesting that sellers remain in control and the downward trend is set to persist.

By recognising these points where the market extends beyond its former bounds, traders can confirm that the current trend is robust and act accordingly. This foundational concept of BOS may not only help in assessing trend strength but also sets the stage for understanding more complex patterns like CHoCH, where the focus shifts from trend continuation to potential trend reversals.

CHoCH Trading Meaning

Advertisement

In trading, a Change of Character (CHoCH) is a concept that reflects a potential shift in market dynamics, often indicating a reversal from the prevailing trend. It may help traders discern when the momentum is shifting, offering a strategic point to consider adjusting their positions.

A CHoCH occurs when there’s a noticeable deviation in the market’s price trend. For example, in a bullish trend characterised by a series of higher highs and higher lows, a CHoCH is indicated by the price failing to set a new high and subsequently falling below a recent higher low. This suggests that buyers are losing control, and a bearish trend could be emerging.

Similarly, during a bearish trend marked by lower highs and lower lows, a bullish CHoCH would occur if the price unexpectedly breaks above a recent lower high. This break indicates that sellers are losing their grip, and a bullish trend may be starting.

The Significance of CHoCHs Across Timeframes

The fractal nature of financial markets means that patterns and behaviours recur across various timeframes, each providing unique insights and implications for trading. Understanding CHoCHs in different timeframes may help traders align their strategies with both short- and long-term trend shifts. This is known as multi-timeframe analysis.

In intraday trading, where decisions are made on lower timeframes (like minutes or hours), a CHoCH can signal a possible short-term trend reversal. For example, if a currency pair in a downtrend on a 15-minute chart suddenly posts a higher high, this could indicate a weakening of the bearish momentum, suggesting a potential bullish reversal.

Traders might use this information to close short positions or to consider a long position, capitalising on the emerging upward trend. These short-term CHoCHs allow traders to respond quickly to market changes, potentially securing returns before larger market shifts occur.

Advertisement

Conversely, CHoCHs observed on higher timeframes, such as daily or weekly charts, are particularly significant because they can indicate a shift in the broader market trend that might last days, weeks, or even months. Such changes can then be used by both long and short-term traders to adjust their positioning and directional bias.

How Is Change of Character Identified?

The initial step to identify a CHoCH in trading involves clearly defining the existing trend on a specific timeframe. This is done by marking the significant swing highs and lows that delineate the trend’s progress. These points should represent somewhat meaningful retracements in the price, providing clear markers of trend continuity or potential reversal points.

According to the Smart Money Concept (SMC) theory, the integrity of an uptrend is maintained as long as the price does not trade through the most recent significant higher low. Conversely, a downtrend is considered intact if the price does not surpass the most recent significant lower high. Therefore, traders focus their attention on these critical points.

Advertisement

To identify a CHoCH, traders watch for a break in these crucial high or low points. For instance, in an uptrend, a bearish CHoCH is indicated when the price achieves a higher high but then reverses to descend below the previous significant higher low.

Similarly, in a downtrend, a bullish CHoCH occurs when the price drops to a lower low before reversing to break above the previous significant lower high, setting a new high. Both types of breaks signal a potential reversal in the trend direction.

To try and spot your own CHoCHs, you can head over to FXOpen’s TickTrader platform to access real-time charts and numerous market analysis tools.

Application of CHoCH

CHoCHs should be integrated with other aspects of the SMC framework. This includes the use of order blocks and imbalances, which are important components in identifying potential reversals.

Order Blocks and Imbalances

An order block is essentially a substantial consolidation area where significant buying or selling has occurred, and prices often revisit these zones before reversing. These blocks can be seen as levels where institutional orders were previously concentrated.

An imbalance, also known as a fair value gap, occurs when the price moves sharply up or down, leaving a zone that has not been traded extensively. Price often returns to these gaps to ‘fill’ them, establishing equilibrium before a potential reversal happens.

In practice, traders can look for a sequence where the price first approaches an order block and begins to fill any existing imbalances. This setup increases confidence in a potential reversal. As the price meets these criteria and a CHoCH occurs, this indicates that the influence of the order block is likely to initiate a price reversal.

Practical Example on GBP/USD

Consider the 4-hour chart of the GBP/USD pair above. We see the pair encounter an order block on the left, one that’s visible on the daily chart. As the price interacts with this block, it begins to retrace, attempting to fill the imbalance but moves away. Eventually, the price completes the fill of the imbalance and meets the previously established order block.

Switching to a 1-hour timeframe, this scenario unfolds similarly. After reaching the order block on the 4-hour chart, another CHoCH occurs, signalling the start of a new uptrend. This lower timeframe CHoCH, following the meeting of the order block, corroborates the potential for a reversal initiated by the higher timeframe dynamics.

Advertisement

This example illustrates how CHoCHs can be utilised across different timeframes, tying back to the fractal nature of markets discussed earlier. By recognising these patterns and understanding their interaction with order blocks and imbalances, traders can strategically position themselves to capitalise on potential market reversals, aligning their trades with deeper market forces at play.

Change of Character vs Market Structure Shift

A Market Structure Shift (MSS) is a specific type of Change of Character that includes additional signals suggesting a potential trend reversal. Unlike a straightforward CHoCH that typically indicates a trend is shifting but may also be a false break, an MSS can be seen as a higher confluence CHoCH. An MSS occurs after the market first makes a key movement contrary to the established trend—forming a lower high in an uptrend or a higher low in a downtrend—without plotting a higher high or lower low.

Following these preliminary signals, an MSS is confirmed when there is a decisive break through a significant swing point accompanied by a strong displacement (i.e. impulse) move, creating a CHoCH in the process. This sequence not only reflects that the prevailing trend has paused but also that a new trend in the opposite direction is establishing itself.

Advertisement

Due to these additional confirmations, an MSS can offer added confirmation for traders, indicating a stronger likelihood that a new, sustainable trend has begun. This makes the MSS particularly valuable for traders looking for more substantiated signals in their trading strategy.

The Bottom Line

The Change of Character (CHoCH) is one of the popular Smart Money concepts, offering traders valuable insight into potential market reversals. By learning to identify CHoCH patterns, traders can align their strategies with institutional order flow. However, as with any trading tool, CHoCH isn’t used in isolation but combined with other market analysis techniques.

To test different trading approaches, you can consider opening an FXOpen account and access a wide range of financial assets, low commissions*, and tight spreads* (*additional fees may apply).

FAQ

What Is CHoCH in Trading?

In trading, CHoCH is a technical observation that signifies a change in the trend’s character, where the price movement breaks from its established pattern of highs and lows, suggesting a potential reversal or substantial shift in the market’s direction.

What Is CHoCH in SMC Trading?

In Smart Money Concept (SMC) trading, a Change of Character (CHoCH) refers to a clear shift in market behaviour that indicates a potential reversal of the prevailing trend. This concept is used by traders to detect early signs of a momentum shift that might lead to significant changes in price direction, enabling strategic adjustments to their trading positions.

What Is a CHoCH in the Market Structure?

A CHoCH in market structure is identified when there is an observable deviation from established price patterns — specifically when new highs or lows contradict the current trend. It signifies that the previous market sentiment is weakening, and a new opposite trend may be starting, prompting traders to reassess their strategies.

How Is CHoCH Identified on a Price Chart?

Identifying a CHoCH involves monitoring significant swing highs and lows for breaks that are contrary to the existing trend. For instance, in an uptrend, a CHoCH would be indicated by a failure to reach a new high followed by a drop below the recent higher low, suggesting a shift to a bearish outlook.

What Is ChoCH vs BOS in Trading?

While both CHoCH and Break of Structure (BOS) are critical in assessing market dynamics, they serve different purposes. CHoCH indicates a potential trend reversal by highlighting a significant change in the price pattern. In contrast, a BOS indicates a continuation of the current trend by showing the price surpassing previous significant highs or lows, reinforcing the ongoing direction.

This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.