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Microsoft (MSFT) Stock: Should You Buy After 22% Plunge?

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MSFT Stock Card

TLDR

  • Microsoft stock plunged 22% from all-time highs after January 28 earnings report revealed AI growth challenges
  • Copilot adoption reached only 15 million licenses out of 400 million available Microsoft 365 seats
  • Azure cloud revenue growth slowed to 39% from 40% previous quarter despite beating analyst expectations
  • OpenAI represents $281 billion or 45% of Microsoft’s $625 billion order backlog creating concentration risk
  • Stock trades at P/E ratio of 26.5, cheapest valuation in three years compared to Nasdaq-100’s 32.8 multiple

Microsoft stock has tumbled 22% from record highs following its fiscal Q2 2026 earnings release. Shares fell over 10% on January 28 alone as investors questioned the company’s AI momentum.


MSFT Stock Card
Microsoft Corporation, MSFT

The stock closed at $393.58 on February 5, marking a sharp retreat from its $555 peak. Despite posting 16.7% revenue growth over the trailing twelve months, concerns about AI execution have spooked Wall Street.

Microsoft’s Copilot virtual assistant has struggled to penetrate enterprise markets. The company sold just 15 million Copilot licenses for Microsoft 365 out of 400 million total business licenses available.

That 3.7% adoption rate doubled from a year earlier but disappointed investors. Copilot integrates AI capabilities into Word, Excel, Outlook and other productivity applications.

The company found more success with developers. Paid Copilot subscriptions for software developers surged 77% from the prior quarter.

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Healthcare showed promise too. Dragon Copilot now assists over 100,000 medical professionals and processed 21 million patient encounters in Q2, tripling year-over-year.

Azure Growth Rate Decelerates

Azure cloud platform revenue increased 39% year-over-year in the second quarter. The result beat Wall Street’s 37.1% forecast but slowed from 40% growth three months earlier.

Investors interpreted the deceleration as a warning sign. Azure provides critical infrastructure and AI development tools for businesses building applications.

Microsoft pointed to data center capacity shortages as a limiting factor. The company’s order backlog from customers waiting for infrastructure ballooned 110% year-over-year to $625 billion.

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OpenAI Concentration Creates Vulnerability

A closer look at the backlog revealed troubling details. OpenAI alone accounts for $281 billion or 45% of total future commitments.

The AI startup lacks sufficient cash reserves to fund those orders immediately. OpenAI must depend on investor capital and revenue expansion to meet obligations.

Microsoft’s CFO disclosed this concentration during the earnings call. Shareholder lawsuits emerged in February 2026 alleging the company misled investors about OpenAI dependence.

Capital spending reached $37.5 billion in Q2 2026 as Microsoft invests heavily in AI infrastructure. Company-wide gross margins contracted despite revenue gains, pressuring profitability.

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The More Personal Computing division declined 3% year-over-year. Gaming revenue fell 9% with Xbox content and services dropping 5%.

Microsoft currently trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 26.5 based on trailing earnings of $15.98 per share. That represents the lowest valuation in three years.

The Nasdaq-100 trades at a 32.8 P/E multiple, making Microsoft cheaper than most tech peers. Analysts project fiscal 2027 earnings of $19.06 per share, implying a forward P/E of 22.4.

The company maintains robust cash generation with a 25.3% free cash flow margin and 46.7% operating margin. Microsoft’s market capitalization stands at $2.9 trillion as of February 5, 2026.

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Crypto World

Oil Rose 3% to Open the Week: Here’s What Moved the Market on Monday

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Oil prices jumped more than 3% on Monday, pushing Brent crude above $116 a barrel. West Texas Intermediate (WTI), the US benchmark, climbed to roughly $102 per barrel.

The latest rise comes as the US-Israel war on Iran entered its fifth week with no signs of abating.

Oil Extends Its War-Fueled Rally 

Several escalatory developments over the weekend fueled the surge. President Donald Trump told the Financial Times he could possibly seize Kharg Island, the terminal that handles roughly 90% of Iran’s crude exports.

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The US president struck a mixed tone on diplomacy with Iran, saying he was “pretty sure” of making a deal with Iran but conceding that talks could still collapse.

Meanwhile, Iran’s parliament speaker warned that Tehran would “set them on fire” when American forces arrived and promised consequences for US-allied nations in the region. 

The oil price surge is far from over, according to market analysts, who warn that the prolonged closure of the Strait of Hormuz could drive crude even higher.

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“A scenario in which the Strait remains closed for an additional month would be consistent with oil prices rising towards $150/bbl and constraints on industrial consumers of energy supply,” Bruce Kasman, global head of economics at JPMorgan, said.

According to Bloomberg, US officials and Wall Street analysts have also begun discussing the possibility of crude reaching $200 per barrel.

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Asian Stocks Tumble, Crypto Feels the Pressure

The energy shock rippled across Asia. Google Finance data showed that Japan’s Nikkei 225 fell over 4.5%, while South Korea’s KOSPI dropped more than 4.3% as import-dependent economies repriced risk.

The volatility has spread to crypto markets, with asset prices dipping early in the morning before rebounding. 

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“The market briefly crashed just now — ETH dropped below $1,940 and BTC fell below $65,000,” Lookonchain reported.

Oil above $100 per barrel continues to pressure risk assets by fueling inflation expectations and delaying anticipated Federal Reserve rate cuts.

The post Oil Rose 3% to Open the Week: Here’s What Moved the Market on Monday appeared first on BeInCrypto.

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Lido DAO Mulls $20M LDO Buyback to Boost Token Price

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Lido DAO Mulls $20M LDO Buyback to Boost Token Price

Lido’s decentralized autonomous organization is considering a one-off $20 million buyback of its governance token to address so-called price dislocation, which is at “historically depressed levels” relative to Ether, according to the DAO. 

The proposal, submitted Friday, seeks permission to swap 10,000 Lido Staked Ether (stETH) tokens, currently worth $20 million from the DAO’s treasury for Lido DAO (LDO), arguing that LDO is undervalued.

“This is not a routine fluctuation. It represents one of the most significant dislocations between LDO’s market price and its underlying protocol fundamentals in the token’s history.”

A token buyback of this size could boost the price of the token, which has fallen roughly 96% from its all-time high. In November, a Lido DAO member pitched an automated buyback mechanism for LDO to improve the token’s price. However, that proposal hasn’t been implemented.

LDO’s change in price relative to ETH since 2024. Source: Lido DAO

Lido DAO pointed out that LDO is trading at a steep discount to Ether (ETH) at a ratio of 0.00016, roughly 63% below its two-year median.

This is despite the protocol holding the top spot of the Ethereum liquid staking market, with a 23.2% share of staked Ether, according to Dune Analytics data. The protocol’s dominance has even been flagged as a centralization risk to the network in previous years.

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Share of Ethereum network validators. Source: Dune Analytics

Related: Ethereum builders propose ‘economic zone’ to tackle L2 fragmentation 

LDO is currently trading at $0.30, down 95.9% from its $7.30 high set in August 2021, according to CoinGecko data. LDO’s $255 million market cap makes it the 141st largest token by value at the time of writing.

“That dislocation is not justified by a proportional deterioration in protocol performance,” Lido DAO said. 

Lido DAO proposes buying stETH in batches

Lido DAO proposed buying up to 10,000 stETH in smaller batches of 1,000 to buy LDO. 

Lido DAO said it would use limit orders or adopt a dollar-cost averaging strategy to avoid market volatility. 

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