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If no party has a majority, the next Welsh Government will be judged not by the elegance of its agreements but by its ability to make the Welsh state work better.

Since devolution began twenty seven years ago, Welsh politics has been shaped by Labour’s dominance, even when that dominance has depended on agreements with others.

Whilst some would argue that the result has been a stable political system, waiting lists have grown, the economy has underperformed, housing pressure has intensified, and the same arguments about productivity, poverty, and public services have been rehearsed year after year.

With the polls currently suggesting that no party will secure an overall majority in the Senedd, the country’s future may depend on whether parties can agree on enough specific measures to pass budgets, shape legislation and keep a government in office. Indeed, when you read all six manifestos, there is a suggestion that the parties are much closer than their campaign language suggests.

The biggest issue is health, and every party, from Labour to Reform, begins with the same judgment: that the NHS in Wales is under severe strain and that public confidence has been badly damaged. That matters because, in a Senedd without a majority, health is the obvious ground for agreement.

Labour wants to focus on new hospitals and shorter waiting times, while Plaid Cymru is promising surgical hubs and a stronger link between health and care. The Liberal Democrats want to expand care capacity to relieve pressure on hospitals, and the Conservatives say they would declare a health emergency. Despite agreeing on almost nothing else, Reform and the Greens both argue that urgent intervention is needed.

There are profound differences over how the NHS should be funded, managed and reformed, but there could be enough overlap for an administration to secure backing for a pragmatic programme to cut waiting lists, expand planned care and tackle the indignity of corridor care. In a hung Senedd, that is likely to be the first test of whether politicians can accept that compromise is not weakness if it gets patients treated sooner.

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Childcare is one of the few policy areas where there is some agreement, even if they differ on whether expansion should be universal or targeted. Plaid Cymru and the Lib Dems want a universal childcare offer from nine months, whilst the Greens back universal childcare from nine months, and the Conservatives support extending free childcare for children from nine months to four years. Labour has again made childcare expansion one of its main promises.

This is not a minor point, as childcare is increasingly treated as economic infrastructure that helps parents return to work and supports family incomes. If Wales ends up with no party in command, childcare expansion looks like one of the easiest areas for a cross-party deal.

The economy offers a similar, if more limited, opportunity, and no party argues that Wales is performing as it should. Labour wants a new industrial strategy; Plaid and the Conservatives are proposing a National Development Agency; and the Liberal Democrats are talking about changing business rates. Even Reform, for all its populist language, frames its offer around backing business, rewarding work and cutting waste.

That does not amount to a shared economic philosophy, but it does suggest room for agreement on measures such as reforming business rates, improving support for apprenticeships and simplifying business support. Those are not glamorous policies, but they are the sort of interventions a minority government could get through in the next four years.

Housing is more politically divided, but even here, there are points of common agreement. Labour, Plaid Cymru, the Liberal Democrats and the Greens all argue that Wales needs more affordable and social housing, stronger action on homelessness and a bigger state role in fixing a market that is failing too many people. The Welsh Conservatives are more focused on planning reform, whereas Reform places less emphasis on expanding social housing.

So housing is not an issue on which all six parties can meet in the middle, but if the arithmetic points to a centre-left understanding, it is an area where that agreement could become substantial.

Then there is the environment, where Net Zero remains a dividing line, especially with Reform. However, on issues such as river pollution and water quality, there is a much broader consensus than many might expect. Labour, the Liberal Democrats, the Greens, the Conservatives and Reform all promise, in one form or another, tougher action on polluted rivers and sewage discharges, and that ought to be enough to support tougher enforcement.

Tax is the one example where consensus will be hardest to reach. Labour says it will not raise Welsh income tax, whilst the Conservatives and Reform want tax cuts. In contrast, the Liberal Democrats leave the door open to a temporary rise to fund social care, Plaid wants broader tax powers and a more progressive framework, and the Greens want much wider tax reform. That is not a basis for easy agreement, nor are the constitutional questions, with Plaid remaining fundamentally different from those of the Conservatives, Reform and the Liberal Democrats.

What should we conclude from all this? A Senedd without a majority need not mean paralysis, and it is unlikely there will be a grand coalition around a shared view of the country’s future, as the ideological divides are too deep. But it may produce a more negotiated politics in which parties are forced to agree on specific measures in areas where the public is demanding action.

After nearly three decades in which Welsh politics has been shaped by one party’s dominance, such a shift would be significant. The frustration in Wales is not simply that politicians disagree, but that we still face the same problems as we did two decades ago.

If no party has a majority, the next government will be judged not by the elegance of its agreements but by its ability to make the Welsh state work better. Therefore, the real test may not be who comes first on election night, but whether the next Senedd can make difficult compromises that lead to shorter waits, better services and a stronger economy.

OAKLAND, Calif. — A viral X thread capturing live courtroom notes from Elon Musk’s high-stakes lawsuit against OpenAI has thrust the landmark trial into the spotlight, with the plaintiff’s lawyer dramatically declaring that the company “stole a charity” created for the benefit of humanity rather than private profit. The April 28 post by attorney Ariel Givner, who received real-time updates from inside the federal courthouse, quickly spread as opening statements laid bare the bitter feud between Musk and OpenAI CEO Sam Altman.

Givner’s thread, posted during the first full day of testimony in the Ronald V. Dellums Federal Building, detailed Musk’s side of the story: how he co-founded OpenAI in 2015 as a nonprofit dedicated to safe, open artificial intelligence development for all mankind. Musk contributed tens of millions of dollars, recruited top talent including Ilya Sutskever, and emphasized existential risks from advanced AI. The lawyer argued that OpenAI’s later shift to a for-profit structure, fueled by billions from Microsoft, betrayed that mission and left the nonprofit shell with “almost no assets.”

The dramatic line — “THEY STOLE A CHARITY” — capped the plaintiff’s opening and echoed through social media. Givner’s notes highlighted an emotional close: “NOBODY SHOULD BE ALLOWED TO STEAL A CHARITY.” The thread also shared a 2017 email exchange in which Musk told Altman, “Either go do something on your own or continue with OpenAI as a nonprofit,” and Altman replied enthusiastically, “I remain enthusiastic about the non-profit structure!” A contemporaneous diary entry from OpenAI President Greg Brockman reportedly called the nonprofit commitment a “lie” if the company pursued a B-corp structure.

The lawsuit, filed in 2024, accuses Altman, Brockman and OpenAI of breaching fiduciary duties by converting the organization into a profit-driven entity valued at hundreds of billions and preparing for an IPO. Musk seeks more than $150 billion in damages and an order to unwind the changes, returning control and intellectual property to the nonprofit. He claims the original mission required no financial return and focused on humanity’s benefit, not enriching insiders or partners like Microsoft.

OpenAI’s lawyers fired back in their opening, arguing Musk knew about plans for a for-profit arm from the start and left the board voluntarily in 2018. They portray the suit as a competitive move by Musk, whose own xAI startup now rivals OpenAI. Defense attorney William Savitt told jurors the case boils down to Musk not getting his way, not a betrayal of any binding promise.

The trial, which began with jury selection on April 27 and opened in earnest April 28, has already featured heated testimony. Musk took the stand as the first witness, recounting his upbringing, early companies and long-standing fears about artificial general intelligence. He described OpenAI as a response to Google’s dominance and insisted he could have launched it as a for-profit but chose the nonprofit path for ethical reasons. Cross-examination grew tense, with Musk accusing OpenAI’s lawyer of trying to “trick” him and snapping, “You’re misleading.”

As of May 1, the proceedings have entered their fourth day. Musk has spent multiple days on the witness stand, with cross-examination continuing and expected to wrap soon. Altman, Brockman and Microsoft CEO Satya Nadella are among those slated to testify later. The monthlong trial before U.S. District Judge Yvonne Gonzalez Rogers could reshape AI development, corporate governance and the balance between nonprofit ideals and commercial realities in Silicon Valley.

Legal observers say the case hinges on whether OpenAI’s founders made enforceable promises to keep the organization nonprofit forever. Musk’s team presented the 2017 emails and Brockman’s diary as evidence of bad faith. OpenAI counters that the nonprofit structure was always intended to evolve with a for-profit subsidiary to fund research, similar to a museum gift shop supporting the museum. The company argues it has delivered on its mission by developing safe AI while attracting necessary capital from Microsoft.

The courtroom drama has drawn intense media attention and public fascination. Demonstrators gathered outside the Oakland courthouse during jury selection, reflecting broader debates about AI ethics, corporate power and Musk’s influence. Givner’s real-time X updates, which included apologies for typos and promises of more notes during breaks, turned the usually opaque legal process into a live-streamed spectacle followed by tech enthusiasts and Musk supporters.

Musk founded xAI in 2023 partly to counter what he sees as OpenAI’s closed, profit-driven direction. He has repeatedly warned that unchecked AI development poses existential risks, a theme he reiterated in testimony. OpenAI maintains it remains committed to safety and has implemented safeguards in models like ChatGPT, while pursuing the resources needed to compete globally.

The stakes extend far beyond personal animosity between former friends Musk and Altman. A ruling in Musk’s favor could force OpenAI to restructure, potentially slowing its momentum or returning valuable IP to the nonprofit. A defense victory would affirm the company’s right to adapt its structure and validate its multibillion-dollar valuation. Either outcome could influence how future AI labs are organized and funded.

Givner, an IP and corporate attorney with experience in fintech and crypto, positioned her thread as neutral live coverage. Her bio notes roles with MonkeDAO and DiversiFi, lending credibility to her detailed legal observations. The thread’s rapid spread underscored X’s role as a primary source for breaking courtroom news in the social media era.

As the trial continues into its second week, both sides prepare for testimony from key figures who shaped OpenAI’s early days. Musk has described himself as a “fool” for continuing to fund the organization after tensions arose, while OpenAI insists he was fully aware of and supported early commercial moves. The jury will ultimately decide whether the shift from nonprofit to for-profit constituted a betrayal or a necessary evolution.

For now, the viral thread from April 28 serves as a time capsule of the trial’s explosive opening, capturing the raw emotions and high principles at stake. Whether Musk’s vision of AI as a public good prevails or OpenAI’s commercial model is upheld, the case has already highlighted the tensions between idealism and pragmatism in the race to build the future’s most powerful technology.