Anyone who’s spent time around the Green Party — its politicians, activists, or campaign strategists — will most likely have heard one decisive phrase: ‘Target to Win’, or TTW.
It’s fairly uncontroversial to say that the Green Party’s considerable electoral successes in recent years up and down the UK are largely thanks to TTW.
It’s arguably thanks to TTW campaigns that the Greens quadrupled their MPs’ seats in the House of Commons in 2024, gained considerable footholds across London boroughs and multiple council areas around England over the years, and even entered government coalition in Scotland (albeit briefly).
In 2025, Young Greens credited TTW with winning 75% of the seats they stood in where they targeted. Indeed, the Green Party’s official webpage advertising How to Win Local Elections, their elections bible for party members, states:
“Virtually all of our recently elected councillors would not have been elected without the guidance of this 250-page manual. …
“It contains template election newsletters and leaflets and scripts for canvassing, as well as advice on choosing target candidates and target wards, sample questionnaires for door-to-door surveys. Everything you need for a proper target to win campaign. Everything you need for a proper target to win campaign.
Shifting political landscapes for the Green Party
However, some within the Green Party argue that they won all their prior successes in an entirely different electoral landscape to the one they confront today. Hence, MP Hannah Spencer’s history-making Manchester victory in a century-old Labour stronghold.
Labour’s popularity is at record lows and falling evermore. The Tories collapsed and aren’t meaningfully holding ground anywhere. The Lib Dems are seemingly making little use of their record number of MPs, freely admit this, and rightly fear the Greens’ surge.
Reform is now a real threat and Greens showed they can hold them off better than Labour in February’s historic Gorton and Denton by-election win. However some feel they’re not meeting the moment. One Greater Manchester-based Green activist told The Canary:
“Gorton and Denton smashed the gates open, but we’re not running through it.”
That by-election result — won by an almost 50% margin, with over 4,400 votes more than Reform — combined with surging membership (now at over 225,000), bolder leadership figures in Zack Polanski, Mothin Ali and Rachel Millward and an insurgent left-wing and grassroots force, represented partly by Greens Organise, change the landscape entirely.
Yet some in the party feel that the party isn’t capitalising on this unique electoral moment. Another Greater Manchester-based campaigner reiterated this concern:
“This [7 May 2026] is going to be an election of missed opportunity.”
Given the Greens’ recent electoral successes, it would be potentially reckless to scrap a historically valuable strategy without a solid replacement. After all, it’s a strategy which could decide the fate of the country for the next decade potentially, for better or worse.
The question right now, then, is whether sticking to TTW in such a new political moment is really the right course of action. I spoke to different party activists to find out.
Balancing the playing-field
We can’t understand TTW without knowing why, where and how it originated.
The ‘why’ is pretty straightforward: for a small party — not historically backed by unions like Labour, nor by super-wealthy donors like Tories or Lib Dems, or Labour and Reform today — resources are scarce. It’s only with their recent membership boom that Greens can boast some competitive funding, and even then it’s relatively tiny.
Greens’ party coffers barely featured visibly in Sky’s recent graph reviewing major party donation sources, where Reform broke historic records – via Sky News.
When resources are scarce, they must be used wisely. Hence, Greens use the TTW playbook: give strong wards, constituencies or boroughs the funding, resources and volunteer support they need. It’s why they went all-in on Gorton and Denton, for example, and won recent council by-elections (even Kent!).
But, conversely, it means that non-TTW seats don’t get that same needed level of support. This leaves them as marginal or ‘cardboard’ seats — where there’s a good chance but no proper targeted campaign — or else ‘paper’ seats, where people stand without real expectation that any campaigning will (or even should be allowed to) take place.
Why ‘Target to Win’?
To find out more about TTW, I recently visited Solihull outside Birmingham, which local Green Party activists described to me as “ground zero” for the electoral strategy. It’s there, supposedly, where the Greens tested, refined and capitalised on TTW.
And it’s been a local shining success: Greens have been in formal opposition to the Tories in Solihull’s council for a decade, with no meaningful Labour presence to speak of.
This is the result of sustained local efforts, combined with national TTW strategy which dedicated resources to securing viable wins. As Solihull’s entire council stands for re-election on 7 May, owing to re-bordering of local wards (despite alleged gerrymandering), it’s plausible that Greens could even take overall control or enter a governing coalition.
But it’s also not exactly true that TTW originated there first. Former party leader Natalie Bennett admitted that Greens adopted the strategy from watching the Lib Dems’ targeted campaigns and wins which brought them into government in 2010, from which they’ve only recently recovered. One party activist and council candidate describes TTW as “guerilla-style electioneering.”
Since the Lib Dems shifted more recently to following Gail’s bakeries as their electoral guide, and their main contributions to British politics are tripled tuition fees and austerity governance, they’re a questionable guide to follow. Even a Lib Dem party veteran says:
“Sometimes there’s benefits in being a bit boring.”
Greens can’t be accused of being boring right now, judging by ongoing establishment backlash. But Polanski’s stated ambition, after all is to replace Labour, not the Lib Dems. But some in the party remain unconvinced that following Lib Dem-originated TTW strategy will achieve that.
Green Party candidates and councillors back TTW
Solihull is supposedly the ‘ground zero’ where biochemist-turned-Green Party elections chief Chris Williams won his first council campaigns, before moving onto national strategising.
One standing Green Party candidate standing there described to me their experience of being non-TTW, but later coming to accept it, as follows:
“Initially I was disappointed, and I was saying ‘Can I go out leafletting on my own?’, but I was told ‘We’d rather you come and leaflet in a target ward’.
“I’ve come round to the view that targeting is the right way, having done door-to-door and seen how time consuming it is. You haven’t got the time or the number of people to cover every single ward in the borough.”
If this argument flies anywhere, it’s surely in Solihull. One of Solihull’s star councillors, who doubtless owes his success to TTW, described it in similarly favourable to The Canary:
“TTW has been a genuinely effective framework in my personal view and Solihull is a good example of what patient, consistent, locally-rooted work can achieve.”
“The discipline of concentrating resources, building a presence over years rather than weeks, and earning credibility ward by ward — that approach has real merit and the results speak for themselves.”
It’s possible that people’s approaches to and opinions on TTW vary depending on their personal relationship to it: if it’s helped you or fellow activists win, you’d be more likely to see the benefits. Conversely, those who don’t see the benefits may stand more critical.
Other candidates criticise TTW
Party activists elsewhere shared their frustrations with The Canary. Some of those are in Greater Manchester, where Hannah Spencer’s by-election win is still felt as a weather-vane indication of potentially fertile ground for sweeping Green success.
Manchester’s foremost news site The Mill recently shared incumbent councillors’ concerns (mostly Labour) that they could be about to lose a great many seats to Greens across the city. But that analysis overlooked TTW as a central factor, which may or may not serve all Greater Manchester areas equally well.
One candidate faces a ward which has had huge demographic shifts in recent years — younger voters coming in, a now-thriving arts scene and Green-leaning independent businesses — which has not been captured in the party’s most recent historical voter data.
As it’s not a target ward, organisers instruct new, enthusiastic members that they’re not allowed to campaign in their ward. Rather, they should go out to another ward, which they likely have no connection to, often on the other side of their constituency, because that’s TTW. One candidate told The Canary:
“I’ve found TTW not only restrictive, but actively demobilising and disengaging for the vast majority of newer members from the Green surge, who do want to get involved but are constantly being told ‘No’ and being shut out.
“Several new members have felt on the brink of walking away entirely as a result of this.”
They describe TTW as resting on two “core assumptions.” Namely, that 1) in order to win, Greens need to intensively campaign and focus resources on a small number of wards; and 2) that any volunteering outside of TTW would have otherwise happened in a TTW ward, and so detracts from TTW campaigns.
On the first point, they said, following Gorton and Denton, that:
“I agree that strategic resource distribution can be done incredibly effectively, but my sense is that the ambition of local parties has not yet met national potential.”
They continued on the second point:
“Point 2 is where TTW is fundamentally flawed. The Green party has seen unprecedented membership surge, and the primary Green goal must be towards mass-mobilisation, grassroots activism and volunteer upskilling.
“Light-touch campaigns such as small leafleting rounds or occasional local door-knocking — which are effectively banned under TTW — are absolutely critical in terms of engaging and upskilling our membership base, in order to build not only towards next year’s local elections, but towards the 2029 general.”
From the “volunteer engagement lens,” they even advocated for a degree of blanket campaigning in wards everywhere. They weren’t oblivious about the need for some targeting, not least owing to its historical successes in capacity-building. However, they shared:
“The Greens need to stop acting like a minority party, and do justice to the surge in national polling. … Change will only come if we build it.”
Time to bin Green Party Target To Win?
I’ve seen this dynamic in messages shared around Greater Manchester. In one, a Green Party staff organiser instructed activists not to direct volunteers to a certain ward with strong Green popularity and large young professional and student populations,
“bc [because] it isn’t quite a target ward.”
One party activist commented on this incident to The Canary:
“This makes me mad; they are actually policing TTW.”
Another shared the following about the same message:
“I’ve actually never known such a top-down party organising before. It’s so restrictive and not helpful for engaging with membership.”
For some activists and dedicated volunteers, it feels like a deliberate stranglehold on local organising. One North West Green campaigner told me of two target wards in their constituency, one of which already has all three seats on the ward held by Greens.
“That [fully Green] ward feels like a safe ward, yet most of our resources are going there, [so it’s] feeling like the councillors care more about staying in power than getting more Green councillors in the area. The other target ward feels a lot more close between Reform and Green but is definitely winnable.”
Another campaigner confirmed to me that this second TTW ward in question is only being allocated “overspill” resources after the safer ward gets 100% of its allocated volunteer hours. In other words, even where two wards are supposedly TTW, that doesn’t mean they’re both getting the same level of support.
This begs the question: Are some TTW wards more equal than others?
The former campaigner pointed out that many supposedly ‘paper’ wards scheduled for 7 May elections won strong Green support at the last council elections in 2024 (since 2025 had no local elections). But now, many of these aren’t receiving TTW-strength support.
Since 2024, though, the ‘Green surge’ or ‘Polanski wave’ has dominated UK left politics and changed everything electorally. Unsurprisingly, the activist told The Canary:
“The TTW policy has felt very restrictive — to a confusing degree.”
They also shared that they found it counter-productive, and less engaging generally, to only engage in TTW campaigning. As a result, TTW is sometimes going ignored anyway. They shared this experience:
“I have campaigned in a non-target ward where I live with the local candidate, and I found that I had way longer chats and gave out way more posters than I ever have in the target wards. People were so happy because they had never been knocked by us before, but we don’t have the resources for an effective campaign there.”
The Rochdale resistance: another model?
That campaigner isn’t alone in forgoing TTW, in favour of a cause they believe can be won — not least where the alternative could be a Reform UK win. But one council-level party is apparently not enforcing TTW strictly, or at all, and instead spreading out its resources wherever it can.
Rochdale Green Party has never been large nor had many resources, but what resources they do have before 7 May are being shared among candidates where the committee feels they have a strong chance. Still, it won’t be easy, one committee member shared:
“We’ve got a tough deal in Rochdale, as Labour are incredibly unpopular, but we’re facing Reform plus Middleton Independents, Restore/Advance in Heywood and Worker’s Party across Rochdale town, so it’s a 4- or 5-way race in some places. It’s anyone’s game.”
In an area with such strong contender wards for split votes — compared with the three-way race of Gorton and Denton, for example, albeit at the council rather than constituency level — Rochdale could become a vital test-case for TTW.
If they can pull off big wins without using TTW in a multi-polar race, it might be a sign of time for change.
One committee member told The Canary:
“We’ve not identified any wards as TTW, because we’ve not really had much capacity in the borough before, either in terms of money or people power.
“I’ve not had much experience of TTW, but it has felt very restricted in its scope and vision. It’s obviously designed for a long-game, guerrilla-style electioneering, rather than the big insurgent wave that GPEW is currently riding.”
It might come down to the fact that a full slate of candidates across Rochdale’s wards hasn’t been possible until now, however. They indicated that TTW could feel like party ideology, rather than necessarily the best strategy in every instance:
“We’ve been lucky to have a chair and sec that haven’t dogmatically followed TTW and have run a dynamic campaign where we throw whatever we can at whichever wards we have capacity to do so.”
At the same time, they went on to suggest that TTW might be strategically adopted later, once there’s a clearer picture of the electoral ground:
“We’re gonna come out with some baseline results and be more strategic next year. This is where some elements of TTW might become useful.”
Time to test TTW
Despite their current resistance to applying TTW rigidly, the Rochdale candidates seem realistic about its strategic value in some scenarios. Perhaps that’s what’s needed when electoral politics looks more unusual than ever: a case-by-case approach.
The candidate and branch committee member continued, telling The Canary:
“I don’t think TTW will be a major issue for us in Rochdale, but I’ve heard stories in Manchester and Stockport where it’s going to be more restrictive, because they’re much more fertile ground for the Greens.
“Hopefully, in the future, TTW is seen as more of a guiding principle, or one of a set of tools that local parties can choose from, rather than a prescription imposed from above.”
Speaking of ‘above’, one name came up in my research which I knew from my time around the historic Gorton and Denton campaign — a party figure involved with an MP’s success in 2024, alongside Hannah Spencer’s win. When I contacted them for comment, they replied:
“Hey Cameron, I’m alright thank you. Busy winning elections!”
The coming week will tell if they’re right to maintain their faith in TTW. When so much depends nationally on Greens’ ability to present a progressive alternative to collapsed centrism and an increasingly emboldened and radical right-wing, it’s no small matter.
Time for the Green Party to evolve
Even Solihull’s key councillor, who leans favourably on TTW, shared that there’s “a fair conversation to have” around TTW in areas unlike his own. He told The Canary:
“The political landscape has shifted significantly. The rise of Reform, the collapse of traditional party loyalties, and the Greens now being seen as a genuine national force means the old targeting assumptions don’t always hold.
“There are communities — including more diverse urban areas — where the TTW model as originally designed hasn’t reflected the full electoral opportunity.”
As for Greater Manchester — one of those diverse urban areas he cites — fears still linger that perceived party dogma might hold Greens back from really succeeding in areas they otherwise could do better. One activist involved in Manchester’s campaigns told The Canary:
“I absolutely think we will suffer as a result of TTW. … I think a lot of people will be disappointed that we haven’t tried to expand to that degree.”
Solihull’s Green councillor offered a nuanced view that will likely resonate with many fellow activists in the run up to — and perhaps especially after — the 7 May local elections:
“My view is that the core discipline of TTW remains sound, but it needs to evolve. Targeting must become more flexible, more diverse in where it looks, and more responsive to the moment we’re in. That’s not a criticism of the strategy — it’s what any good strategy does over time.”
Green Party Deputy CEO and elections manager Chris Williams himself told Politico that he’s encouraging candidates and activists to “raise their ambitions.” Politico says that 7 May is the moment Williams has been building towards for now almost two decades. Like Williams says:
“We [Greens] are a big party now.”
The question remains whether that messaging is really cutting through at the local level, or whether branches accustomed to old TTW campaigns will fail to meet this urgent moment.
By Cameron Baillie
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