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Why Bitcoin’s Latest Sell-Off Echoes The 2022 Crypto Winter

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Why Bitcoin’s Latest Sell-Off Echoes The 2022 Crypto Winter

Bitcoin has recently experienced a sharp freefall in the past 48 hours, scaring retail investors and raising serious concerns over its future viability. Though its price has improved slightly on Friday, traders are bracing themselves for the next big dip– and how much worse it might be.

Luckily for the crypto industry, this year wouldn’t be the first time that the future seemed dire. In times like these, history is the best anchor for knowing what happens next, which moves to avoid, and for overall assessing just how bad the situation currently is. Many of these answers lie in the 2022 collapse.

The Conditions That Preceded the 2022 Collapse

Though a lot has changed since then, the 2022 crypto winter provided the backdrop for what most in the community believed would be the end of the industry. 

The narrative began in 2020, when, over the course of a year, cryptocurrencies grew enormously. Funding poured into the market, driving prices sharply higher until they peaked around November 2021. During that time, Bitcoin rose from around $8,300 to $64,000 over 10 months.  

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All Previous Crypto Winters. Source: World Economic Forum

High-yield products were central to the allure some of the leading crypto firms offered at the time. The idea of receiving a generous, guaranteed interest rate on purchases such as Bitcoin or stablecoins was highly attractive. 

Yet, the narrative began to dismantle, partly due to broader macroeconomic factors. 

The US Federal Reserve had raised interest rates due to persistent inflation, limiting consumers’ access to liquidity. The stock market suffered a deep correction, partially in response to the outbreak of war in Europe.

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These factors led crypto investors to withdraw funds from the most speculative assets.

What ensued was a scenario similar to a bank run. But as consumers rushed to withdraw their funds, bigger issues began to appear– ones that caused investors to seriously distrust the industry.

The Domino Effect That Followed

The first shock was the collapse of the TerraUSD (UST) stablecoin in May 2022, when its price nosedived over 24 hours. The event raised serious distrust in its ability to maintain its dollar peg. 

According to an analysis by the Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, Celsius and Voyager Digital, leading centralized exchanges at the time, saw respective outflows of 20% and 14% in customer funds in the 11 days following the news. 

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Then came the collapse of Three Arrows Capital (3AC). At the time, the hedge fund managed about $10 billion in assets. The generalized plunge in crypto prices and a particularly risky trading strategy wiped out its assets, obligating the firm to file for bankruptcy. 

Withdrawals of customer funds during 90 days before bankruptcy filings. Source: Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago.
Withdrawals of customer funds during 90 days before bankruptcy filings. Source: Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago.

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Centralized exchanges suffered even more greatly, incurring another round of steep outflows. 

After that came the infamous FTX collapse in November 2022. Outflows reached 37% of customer funds, all of which were withdrawn within 48 hours. According to the Chicago Fed, exchanges Genesis and BlockFi respectively withdrew roughly 21% and 12% of their investments in that month alone. 

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During 2022, at least 15 crypto-related firms ceased operations or entered insolvency proceedings. The failures revealed structural liquidity weaknesses in several business models, particularly their vulnerability to rapid withdrawals during periods of market stress.

These events underscored an increasingly important lesson: financial promises must be aligned with underlying liquidity, and contingency planning is essential during periods of stress. 

Against today’s market backdrop, those lessons have regained renewed relevance.

Why Today’s Bitcoin Behavior Matters

Over the past week, leading cryptocurrencies Bitcoin and Ethereum fell nearly 30%. This drop wiped out an estimated $25 billion in unrealized value across digital asset balance sheets. 

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This data comes as global markets sold off sharply this week, hitting crypto, equities, and even traditional safe havens like gold and silver. The synchronized decline points to a broader liquidity shock rather than asset-specific weaknesses. 

As a result, traders facing margin calls liquidated their liquid assets first. For crypto, this broader backdrop indicated a market reset rather than a complete loss of confidence. With positive consumer data on Friday reducing near-term macro pressure, Bitcoin saw its price refloat back up to $70,000.

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Bitcoin’s price over the past week. Source: CoinGecko.

Nonetheless, Bitcoin’s behavior has signalled something more structural. It hasn’t exclusively reacted to liquidity conditions.

For the past year, Bitcoin has failed to reclaim momentum even on relief rallies. According to previous BeInCrypto analyses, this drawdown is being driven primarily by long-term holders who have consistently sold off their holdings. 

That behavior sends a powerful negative signal into the market. Newer retailers have followed their moves closely, understanding that when conviction hodlers sell, upside attempts lose credibility. 

Price action, however, is often only the first visible layer of stress. While markets tend to price fear quickly, institutions respond more slowly and more structurally, adjusting operations long before a full-blown crisis becomes evident.

In periods of prolonged uncertainty, these strategic shifts can serve as early warning signs.

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Institutions Begin Pulling Back Quietly

Beyond price movements, early indicators of stress are already emerging at the institutional level. 

One recent example has been Gemini’s decision to scale back operations and exit certain European markets. The move does not point to insolvency, nor can it be directly attributed to the latest price downturn. 

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However, it does reflect a strategic adjustment to a higher-compliance environment, illustrating how prolonged uncertainty often prompts institutions to reassess regional exposure and operating efficiency before stress becomes visible in balance sheets or market prices.

Meanwhile, last month Polygon carried out a large internal round of layoffs, dismissing roughly 30% of its staff. The move marked the third time it did so in the past three years. 

Historically, similar operational pullbacks appeared quietly in late 2021 and early 2022, well before broader industry failures became visible. Firms began freezing hiring, scaling back expansion plans, and reducing incentives as liquidity tightened. These moves were often framed as efficiency or regulatory alignment rather than distress.

Attention is also returning to digital asset treasuries, where prolonged drawdowns tend to expose balance-sheet sensitivity. MicroStrategy has once again emerged as a bellwether. 

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MicroStrategy Highlights Early Structural Stress

Bitcoin’s largest digital asset treasury faced renewed market pressure after Bitcoin slid to $60,000 this week. The event pushed its vast crypto treasury deeper below its average acquisition cost and reigniting concerns about balance-sheet risk.

MicroStrategy’s shares fell sharply as Bitcoin extended its sell-off, while the stock’s decline also pushed its market valuation below the value of its underlying Bitcoin holdings.

If price volatility persists, such balance sheets will become increasingly reflexive, amplifying both confidence and fragility.

In fact, MicroStrategy has already moved away from its once-unmovable promise to never sell. In November, CEO Phong Le acknowledged for the first time that the company could sell its holdings under specific crisis conditions. 

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Today’s indicators appear earlier and more subdued, which may make them easier to overlook. Yet their quiet nature may be precisely what makes them significant, offering a glimpse into how prolonged confidence erosion begins to reshape the industry from the inside out.

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Lido DAO Plans $20M LDO Buyback to Stabilize After Historic Decline

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Crypto Breaking News

Lido DAO’s decentralized autonomous organization is weighing a one-off $20 million buyback of its governance token, LDO, in a bid to address a pronounced price dislocation relative to Ether. The plan would swap 10,000 stETH tokens from the treasury for LDO, with proponents arguing that the governance token is undervalued given the protocol’s fundamentals.

The proposal, submitted on Friday, outlines a staged approach: the treasury would acquire up to 10,000 stETH in smaller batches of 1,000 and swap each batch for LDO. Lido argues this move could restore alignment between LDO’s market price and the underlying health of the protocol, a gap it says has widened to historically large levels. As part of the process, each batch would require tokenholder approval, and results would be reported before the next tranche proceeds.

“This is not a routine fluctuation. It represents one of the most significant dislocations between LDO’s market price and its underlying protocol fundamentals in the token’s history.”

The time to act comes as LDO sits at an extended discount to Ether. Lido DAO notes LDO trades at about 0.00016 ETH, roughly 63% below its two-year median. At the same time, Lido remains the dominant force in Ethereum’s liquid staking market, holding about 23.2% of staked Ether, according to Dune Analytics data. That leadership has not come without controversy; previous assessments flagged the potential centralization risks tied to a single protocol’s dominance in securing a large share of the network’s staking.

Price and market metrics underscore the scale of the challenge. LDO is currently trading around $0.30, down about 95.9% from its peak near $7.30 in August 2021. Its market capitalization sits near $255 million, placing it around the 141st-largest token by value. The plan’s proponents argue that the proposed buyback could shore up sentiment by demonstrating active governance-driven capital allocation tied to the protocol’s real-world performance.

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Key takeaways

  • The Lido DAO proposal would execute a one-off $20 million buyback by swapping up to 10,000 stETH from the treasury for LDO, in batches of 1,000 stETH each, using limit orders or dollar-cost averaging to manage volatility.
  • Approval for each batch would be required from tokenholders, and results would be disclosed after every tranche before proceeding.
  • LDO trades at a steep discount to ETH (approximately 0.00016 ETH per LDO, about 63% below the two-year median), despite Lido’s leadership in Ethereum’s liquid staking sector.
  • Lido’s dominance has been cited in the past as a potential centralization risk for the network, though the current governance move focuses on price alignment and treasury management.
  • Revenue and fee dynamics in 2025 show Lido’s take rate rising to 6.1% even as staking fees declined, with total staking revenue dipping amid a broader market retrenchment.

Mechanics, governance, and investor considerations

The proposed buyback plan hinges on a staged governance process. If approved, Lido would execute batches of 1,000 stETH each, swapping them for LDO until the 10,000-stETH target is reached. The strategy emphasizes price discipline: Lido intends to use limit orders or a dollar-cost averaging approach to smooth entry and avoid abrupt price moves. Each batch would require a new round of tokenholder approvals, and the DAO would report results after every step to maintain transparency and accountability.

The broader context includes a look at Lido’s earnings trajectory. In 2025, Lido’s revenue declined by about 23% to roughly $40.5 million, driven largely by a drop in staking fees to about $37.4 million. Despite the revenue dip, the protocol’s take rate—defined as the percentage of staked ETH rewards retained as fees—improved from about 5% to just over 6% in 2025. Lido argues that the core fundamentals remain robust even amid a wider market pullback and a 13% cost improvement in 2025 versus 2024.

The idea of a buyback is not entirely new within Lido’s ecosystem. In November, a member proposed an automated buyback mechanism to support LDO’s price, but that proposal has not been implemented. The current plan reframes the concept as a one-off, governance-driven initiative tied directly to the treasury’s assets and the DAO’s long-term interests.

Implications for holders and the broader ecosystem

If the proposal advances, the immediate effect could be a temporary lift in LDO’s trading dynamics, especially if the market interprets the buyback as a signal that the DAO is willing to put treasury-backed resources toward balancing token price with protocol fundamentals. For investors, the move highlights a visible attempt to align incentives between token economics and the platform’s operational strength, particularly given Lido’s entrenched position in Ethereum staking and its influence on validator economics.

However, the plan also introduces governance risk and execution risk. The need for multiple rounds of tokenholder approvals means outcomes will be contingent on community sentiment and turnout. Moreover, the market’s reaction will hinge on how the buyback intersects with broader SEC-like scrutiny, market liquidity conditions, and the pace at which LDO could absorb new supply without dampening demand for the token’s governance role.

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Looking ahead, observers will be watching whether the DAO proceeds with the proposed schedule, how each batch performs relative to market conditions, and whether this approach invites further debates about token economics, centralization concerns, and the resilience of Ethereum’s staking architecture as it evolves post-merge.

Readers should monitor Lido DAO’s governance votes and the market’s reaction to any announced results from each tranche, as these steps will illuminate how the community weighs treasury-backed interventions against the need to maintain decentralization and protocol integrity in a challenging macro environment.

Risk & affiliate notice: Crypto assets are volatile and capital is at risk. This article may contain affiliate links. Read full disclosure

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Bitcoin recovers to $67,400 after dipping below $65,200 as Houthis enter Iran war

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Bitcoin recovers to $67,400 after dipping below $65,200 as Houthis enter Iran war

The war just got bigger. Bitcoin briefly got smaller.

Bitcoin dipped to $65,112 early Monday morning, its lowest level since the February crash, before recovering to $67,402 as Asian markets opened.

The 24-hour range of $65,112 to $67,389 reflects a market that sold hard on overnight escalation headlines and found buyers near $65,000, a level that hasn’t been tested since the war’s opening weekend five weeks ago.

Ethereum recovered 2% to $2,044, Solana gained 0.9% to $83.48, and XRP added 1.4% to $1.35. The 24-hour green across the board masks a rougher weekly picture though. BTC is still down 1% on the week, ETH 0.9%, XRP 1.9%, and SOL 3.7%. Tron is the one name sitting in green, up 2.6% in a day and 4.6% on the week, quietly outperforming the entire majors complex.

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The escalation this time came from multiple directions simultaneously. Iran-backed Houthi forces entered the conflict, opening a new front beyond the direct U.S.-Israel-Iran theater. Additional U.S. troops arrived in the Middle East, fanning fears of a ground operation.

The Wall Street Journal reported Trump is weighing a military operation to extract uranium from Iran, though no decision has been made. And Iran attacked two aluminum production sites in the region, sending the metal up as much as 6% and extending the war’s economic damage beyond oil and into industrial commodities.

Brent crude rose 2.5% to around $115 a barrel, now up roughly 90% year-to-date. Asian equities fell sharply, with South Korea’s benchmark down 3.2% on a technology stock selloff and Japan’s Nikkei dropping 3.4%. S&P 500 futures pared losses and were trading roughly flat, suggesting some stabilization after the initial reaction.

The $65,112 low matters technically. That level is within range of the $64,000 low from Feb. 28, the day the war started. Bitcoin has spent five weeks building a pattern of higher lows on each escalation, from $64,000 to $66,000 to $68,000 to $69,400 to $70,596.

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Monday’s dip below $66,000 is the first time in weeks the floor has moved lower rather than higher. Whether it recovers and re-establishes the uptrend or marks the beginning of a break below the range that has held since the war began is the question for the rest of the day.

Meanwhile, oil at $115 and aluminum spiking on direct attacks on production facilities means the inflationary impact is broadening beyond energy into industrial supply chains. That makes the Fed’s position even harder and the rate cut timeline even more distant.

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Polymarket Trader Profits $67K on UFC Fight Mix-Up

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Polymarket Trader Profits $67K on UFC Fight Mix-Up

A Polymarket trader turned $676 into $67,608 on Saturday by capitalizing on a rare mistake during a UFC heavyweight bout, where the wrong fighter was initially announced as the winner. 

The trader, known as LlamaEnjoyer on Polymarket and Verrissimus on X, watched the live fight between Tyrell Fortune and Marcin Tybura and suspected that a mistake may have been made when UFC presenter Bruce Buffer announced Tybura as the winner.

During that time, Polymarket shares for Fortune fell to one cent, and LlamaEnjoyer was able to place the $676 bet moments before Buffer corrected himself and declared Fortune the winner. 

LlamaEnjoyer profited roughly $67,000 from the UFC’s brief blunder, allowing him to capture a near 100x return.

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Receipt of the LlamaEnjoyer’s win on Polymarket. Source: Polymarket

The incident shows the speed at which odds on prediction markets can whipsaw during live events. 

Related: NYSE parent ICE completes new $600M investment in Polymarket

LlamaEnjoyer almost lost $100,000 initially

Speaking about the incident, the Polymarket trader said they almost put $100,000 on Tybura at 99 cents, presumably once the initial decision was made before realizing that something “was off.”

“Cancelled my order, scooped up 1c shares instead. the UFC corrected the winner seconds later. easiest 100x ever.”