Bitcoin staged a defiant recovery Friday, recapturing the psychological $70,000 threshold after a harrowing 24-hour period that saw the digital asset suffer its steepest one-day decline since the collapse of the FTX exchange in 2022.

The world’s largest cryptocurrency climbed more than 11% to trade as high as $71,600, according to CoinDesk data, providing much-needed relief to a market that had been in a state of freefall. The rebound follows a “Black Thursday” for crypto investors, during which Bitcoin’s price cratered to an intraday low of $60,057.

The recovery has reignited debates among Wall Street strategists regarding the asset’s bottom. While some warn of a “Crypto Winter” in 2026, others maintain that the structural foundations of the market—bolstered by institutional ETFs—could propel Bitcoin back toward $100,000 before the year is out.

Anatomy of a Crash: What Triggered the $60,000 Test?

The midweek rout wiped out more than $500 billion in total crypto market capitalization in just seven days. Several factors converged to create a “perfect storm” of selling pressure:

• Macroeconomic Anxiety: Uncertainty surrounding the Federal Reserve’s interest rate path and the nomination of Kevin Warsh as Fed Chair has pushed investors toward “risk-off” assets.
• ETF Outflows: Data from Deutsche Bank revealed that U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs saw over $3 billion in withdrawals in January, signaling a cooling of the “Bitcoin Boomer” adoption phase.
• Mass Liquidations: Nearly $1 billion in leveraged long positions were liquidated within 24 hours on Thursday, creating a cascade effect that forced prices lower.
• Corporate Exposure: Shares of “Bitcoin Treasury” companies like Strategy (formerly MicroStrategy) plummeted as the market realized many of their recent purchases were “underwater,” with an average acquisition price reportedly around $76,000.

‘Capitulation’ or ‘Buying Opportunity’?

The sharp bounce from $60,000 suggests that significant “buy the dip” demand remains. Julio Moreno, head of research at CryptoQuant, noted that buying volume surged as prices touched the $60,000 level, a sign of institutional or “whale” accumulation.

“It seems like a relief rally after the share-price decline of the last few days,” Moreno told MarketWatch. “In the futures market, the open interest declined while prices increased, which suggests short positions were closed or liquidated.”

However, the road ahead remains fraught with technical hurdles. Bitcoin is still down roughly 43% from its record intraday high of $126,272 reached in October 2025. For many retail investors who entered the market during the post-election surge in late 2024, the current “recovery” to $70,000 still leaves them deep in the red.

The 2026 Outlook: Price Predictions and Targets

Despite the recent carnage, the long-term sentiment among crypto-native analysts remains cautiously optimistic.

“From a sentiment perspective, comparisons across cycles are always imperfect, but anecdotally there is an outsized sense of fear and fatigue,” wrote Sean Farrell, head of digital assets at Fundstrat. Farrell noted he is increasing net long exposure but leaving “wiggle room” for another potential dip into the $50,000s if macro conditions worsen.

The ‘Trump Effect’ Fades

The 2026 slump has notably erased all gains made since President Trump’s election in November 2024. While the administration’s pro-crypto rhetoric initially fueled a massive rally, the lack of movement on key legislation—such as the stablecoin bill—and concerns over conflict-of-interest investigations into Trump-related crypto ventures like World Liberty Financial have dampened investor enthusiasm.

As of Saturday, Bitcoin continues to consolidate around the $70,000 mark. Traders are closely watching the $75,000 resistance level; a break above this could signal the end of the “mini-bear” market, while a failure to hold $68,000 could lead to a retest of the week’s lows.

Relying solely on the headline capital expenditure (capex) number in the Union Budget provides an incomplete picture of the government’s true infrastructure push. The budgeted capex for FY27, at Rs. 12.2 trillion versus the FY26 revised estimate of Rs. 10.96 trillion, does not fully capture the underlying trends for several reasons.

First, the headline figure includes equity infusions (such as the Air India infusion in FY22 or the BSNL infusion under the Ministry of Telecom) as well as capex-oriented loans and advances. These items must be stripped out to understand the actual asset-creating expenditure.

Second, many sectors that require significant infrastructure development—such as water supply, housing, metro systems, and commercial shipping—fall either under state jurisdiction or the private sector. Spending on these schemes does not result in asset creation on the Union Government’s books and is therefore recorded as revenue expenditure. These items must be added back. Finally, infrastructure spending financed through extra-budgetary resources—via PSUs or quasi-sovereign bodies—must also be incorporated to form a holistic view.

After making these adjustments, we find that the Centre’s effective infrastructure spending has increased by 18% year-on-year, reversing the modest contraction seen last year. Defence continues as the mainstay, with a 17% increase in allocations, while roads and railways see growth of around 11% each (including allocations under the Gram Sadak Yojana). After an introduction to Maritime Vision, provision for the shipping and ports industry kicks off. Housing and water also receive healthy allocations, though execution remains a key risk given that these segments have failed to meet budgeted targets over the past three years. In the power and renewables sector, spending remains PSU-driven through internal and extra-budgetary resources.

In addition to direct capex, Production-Linked Incentive (PLI) schemes are an important indirect driver of investment. Given that these schemes absorb part of the cost of capacity creation, tracking their allocations and utilisation is crucial. Subsidy disbursements under PLI have been rising steadily, reaching an estimated Rs. 200 billion in FY26. Between FY22 and FY26, total disbursements amount to Rs. 421 billion—around 14% of the committed envelope. The overall PLI corpus has expanded from Rs. 2.3–2.6 trillion four years ago to nearly Rs. 3 trillion today. For FY27, the government expects strong traction in autos, semiconductors, electronic components, and white goods. PLI utilisation in large-scale electronics and IT hardware may moderate in the near term, as the second round has only recently begun and is likely to gather momentum from FY28 onward.

Tax incentives are also an important lever to catalyse investment. In this context, the proposed tax holiday for foreign companies using India-based data centres could materially boost the sector. Under the proposal, foreign firms delivering services through Indian data centres would enjoy a tax holiday until 2047, subject to specific conditions: they cannot own or operate the data centres directly, must route domestic sales through an Indian reseller, and must receive formal government notification. Few major jurisdictions offer an incentive of comparable duration, potentially making India an attractive destination for hyperscalers such as Amazon, Google, and Microsoft. This could spur large-scale data-centre construction and significantly expand demand for power, transmission infrastructure, cooling systems, substations, optical fibre networks, and commercial real estate. However, important questions remain—particularly around whether hyperscalers would accept not owning or operating their facilities, and whether competing global hubs such as the US, Germany, or the UK might respond with counter-incentives.
To sum it all, the budget clearly had a sharper focus on quality of expenditure, accompanied by selective tax changes. Measures have been focussed on enhancing the long-term productive potential of the country to counter the external vulnerabilities and boost growth.

Infrastructure oriented spend budgeted to rise 18% in FY27

Source: Budget Documents, SBIFM Research

Subsidy disbursement under Production linked incentives kicks off

India’s equity benchmarks clawed back from early losses to eke out gains at close on Friday, as investors balanced the optimism ahead of the release of the US-India trade deal details against the nervousness in the global technology pack.The NSE Nifty added 0.2% to finish at 25,693.7, while the BSE Sensex rose 0.3% to 83,580.40. Both gauges ended the event-fuelled six-session trading week with gains of roughly 1.5% for the second week in a row.

The Nifty IT index declined 1.5% on Friday, posting 5% losses for the week, as the slide in the US technology and AI stocks on concerns around rising AI-related spending at Alphabet and intensifying competitive pressures spilt over to the software services stocks in the rest of the world. Elsewhere in Asia, South Korea dropped 1.4% and Hong Kong slipped 1.2%. China was down 0.3%, Taiwan was flat, while Japan bucked the trend with an 0.8% rise. “IT stocks are having a rough time given the slump in tech stocks globally due to increasing focus on AI, and investors should stay cautious on the sector,” said UR Bhat, co-founder and director, Alphaniti. Bhat added that Friday’s pullback was likely supported by foreign buying.

Foreign portfolio investors were net buyers on Friday at ₹1,951 crore, while domestic institutions sold ₹1,265 crore. In February so far, global investors have purchased equities worth ₹9,716 crore after selling to the tune of over ₹34,000 crore in January.

Investors had to navigate sharp swings in the market through the week, starting with the Union budget in the special trading session on Sunday, the Indo-US trade deal finalisation on Monday, the risk-off sentiment in the technology sector and the RBI’s Monetary Policy on Friday when the central bank held the repo rate steady at 5.25%on expected lines. Analysts said investor mood now hinges on the fine print of the bilateral trade pact.

“The market is waiting for the fine print of the US-India trade deal as currently it seems like there is a possible risk of a large influx of American imports,” said Bhat. “If the deal favours Indian exports on balance, then there is scope for meaningful gains.”

Derivatives indicators pointed to growing uncertainty. A widening trading range suggested a lack of conviction among traders.
“The headline indices opened on a strong note after the US-India trade deal and rallied close to the lifetime high levels however, since then, it has been drifting lower, indicating caution,” said Ajit Mishra, SVP Research, Religare Broking. He added that “the levels around 25,400 are make or break for the market as any move lower could lead to a slide and result in gap closure around 25100.”

In commodities, gold rose 2.3% and silver jumped 4.7% to $74 on Friday morning, recovering from the early day losses. Mishra noted that while gold remained relatively stable, silver could face further pressure. Geopolitics could also play a role in the market direction.

Portland Trail Blazers guard Shaedon Sharpe was forced to exit Friday night’s game against the Memphis Grizzlies early due to a left calf injury, leaving the team shorthanded in a crucial Western Conference matchup and raising immediate questions about his availability for the rematch on Saturday.

Sharpe, who has emerged as one of Portland’s most consistent scorers this season, played just 14 minutes before departing. He finished with two points on 0-for-2 shooting, including 0-for-1 from three-point range, along with two rebounds, two assists and two free throws made. The injury was announced during the game, with Sidy Cissoko checking in to start the third quarter in his place. The Trail Blazers later confirmed Sharpe would not return.

The exact moment of the injury was not immediately clear, as no specific play was highlighted in initial reports. Sharpe appeared to be moving normally early in the contest but was ruled out after evaluation by the medical staff. The severity remains undetermined, though the quick turnaround for Saturday’s second game against Memphis — the first of a back-to-back set — adds urgency to his recovery timeline.

Portland entered the night at 23-28, sitting 10th in the Western Conference standings amid a push to climb into play-in contention. Sharpe has been a key piece of that effort, averaging around 21.7 points, 4.6 rebounds and 3.0 assists per game this season. His scoring outburst has been particularly notable in recent weeks, including a stretch where he scored at least 19 points in six consecutive games while shooting nearly 50% from the field.

The 22-year-old, selected seventh overall in the 2022 NBA Draft, has developed into a dynamic wing for the rebuilding Trail Blazers. His athleticism, scoring ability off the dribble and improved playmaking have made him a cornerstone alongside veterans like Jerami Grant and newcomers such as Jrue Holiday. Friday’s limited output marked a departure from his recent form, where he had been a reliable source of offense.

The Grizzlies, at 20-29 and dealing with their own injury woes, presented a challenging but winnable opponent for Portland at Moda Center. Memphis was without several key contributors, including Ja Morant (elbow), Zach Edey (ankle), Brandon Clarke (calf) and others on the injury report. Ty Jerome, recently returned from his own calf issue, was sidelined for load management on the first night of the back-to-back.

Portland’s injury report heading into the game already featured absences and questionables. Damian Lillard remains out for the season with an Achilles injury, while others like Deni Avdija (back), Scoot Henderson (hamstring) and Matisse Thybulle (knee) have been in and out of the lineup. Sharpe’s early exit compounded the challenges, forcing coach Chauncey Billups to adjust rotations with increased minutes for reserves like Cissoko and Vit Krejčí.

Calf injuries can range from mild strains to more serious tears, often requiring days to weeks of rest depending on severity. In the NBA, such issues frequently lead to missed time, especially with the physical demands of the schedule. The Trail Blazers will likely monitor Sharpe closely overnight, with imaging or further evaluation possible before determining his status for Saturday.

The game itself unfolded as a competitive Western Conference battle between two teams hovering around .500 or below, both looking to string together wins in the second half of the season. Portland has shown flashes of potential with its young core, but consistency has been elusive. Sharpe’s absence could impact offensive spacing and transition scoring, areas where his explosiveness shines.

Fans and analysts expressed concern on social media and in post-game discussions. Sharpe’s recent hot streak had boosted optimism around the Blazers’ direction, and an injury now threatens to disrupt that momentum. Fantasy basketball managers, who have rostered Sharpe at high rates this season, also face decisions on whether to hold or seek replacements given the back-to-back uncertainty.

The Trail Blazers have emphasized player health in their rebuild, prioritizing long-term development over short-term risks. Head coach Billups has spoken frequently about managing minutes and avoiding overexertion for young talents like Sharpe and Donovan Clingan. This latest setback will test that approach once more.

Memphis, meanwhile, continues navigating a roster in flux following the trade deadline. New additions and returns from injury have yet to fully gel, but the team remains competitive despite missing star power. Their defense and rebounding have kept games close, even against healthier opponents.

As the night progressed without Sharpe, Portland leaned on Grant’s scoring and interior presence from Clingan. The outcome of the game was still in flux late, but the injury overshadowed much of the on-court action for Blazers supporters.

The team issued no immediate update beyond the ruling out, but a Saturday morning report is expected. If Sharpe is sidelined, it could open opportunities for others in the rotation while highlighting the depth challenges Portland faces.

Calf strains have plagued several players league-wide this season, including Memphis’ own Jerome earlier in the campaign. Recovery protocols typically involve rest, ice, compression and gradual return-to-play progression under medical supervision.

For Sharpe, who turned heads as a high-flying prospect out of Kentucky, staying healthy has been key to realizing his potential. This incident serves as a reminder of the physical toll of the NBA schedule, particularly for athletic wings who rely on burst and explosiveness.

Portland’s upcoming schedule includes the immediate rematch with Memphis before further tests against playoff contenders. Maintaining health will be critical as the team eyes a late-season surge.

The Trail Blazers and Grizzlies tip off again Saturday night in what could be a pivotal game for both squads’ positioning in the crowded Western Conference play-in race.

Air India opens first flagship Maharaja Lounge at Delhi airport’s Terminal 3

Air India has unveiled its inaugural flagship lounge, The Maharaja Lounge, at Delhi’s Terminal 3, marking a significant enhancement to its premium travel offerings. This new space, designed with Indian heritage and modern aesthetics, will cater to Business and First Class passengers, elite club members, and eligible Star Alliance travelers.

Bitcoin has recovered from Friday’s low of $60,000 to above $70,000, signaling stabilisation after a macro-driven crash. The cryptocurrency was trading at $70,695.

In the past 24 hours, Bitcoin jumped 9.31% whereas Ethereum went up by 9.23% to trade at $2,083. Among the major altcoins, BNB, XRP, Solana, Tron, Dogecoin, Cardano rose 14% whereas Hyperliquid slid 6.77%.

Also Read | Thinking of pausing your mutual fund SIPs? A 6 month gap may cost you Rs 2 lakh additional lossRiya Sehgal, Research Analyst, Delta Exchange, said Bitcoin’s rebound from the $60,000 lows to above $70,000 and Ethereum’s recovery beyond $2,000 mark a potential turning point following the steepest two-week decline since mid-2022.Sehgal further added that this correction was largely macro-driven, triggered by risk-off sentiment, and leverage washouts, rather than any structural weakness within crypto. “Overall, the market appears to be shifting from panic to cautious optimism, signaling that the worst of the drawdown may be behind us, though volatility will likely remain elevated in the near term.”

The global crypto market capitalisation jumped 8.6% to $2.42 trillion, according to CoinMarketCap.
In the past week, Ethereum and Bitcoin were down by 22.62% and 15.68% respectively. Among the major altcoins, BNB, XRP, Solana, Tron, Dogecoin, Cardano were down over 26% whereas Hyperliquid was up by 3.11%.Nischal Shetty, Founder, WazirX said over the last 24 hours, crypto markets have seen short-term volatility, driven largely by technical factors and cautious sentiment rather than any fundamental shift in the ecosystem.

Also Read | Radhika Gupta urges investors to ignore ‘cats’ and think like a goldfish amid market chaos

“Importantly, continued investments by financial institutions into crypto infrastructure reinforce the long-term conviction that this space is becoming an integral part of the global financial system, beyond short-term price movements,” Shetty said.

The investigation into the suspected abduction of Nancy Guthrie, the 84-year-old mother of Today show co-anchor Savannah Guthrie, has taken a high-tech and harrowing turn. Federal and local authorities confirmed Friday that multiple ransom notes, including a demand for millions of dollars in Bitcoin, are being treated as credible leads in the search for the missing octogenarian.

Nancy Guthrie was reported missing from her home in the Catalina Foothills, north of Tucson, on Feb. 1 after failing to appear for a Sunday church service. Five days into the search, the Pima County Sheriff’s Department and the FBI are racing against a ticking clock, complicated by the victim’s fragile health and the digital wall of a cryptocurrency ransom.

A ‘Credible’ Digital Ransom

The FBI’s Phoenix field office revealed that several media organizations, including TMZ and local station KOLD-TV, received messages purportedly from the kidnappers. According to FBI Special Agent in Charge Heith Janke, these notes contained “specific details” about the Guthrie residence that had not been released to the public, including references to a floodlight and an Apple Watch.

The primary demand is for a “substantial amount” of Bitcoin, reportedly totaling millions of dollars. The kidnappers established a hierarchy of deadlines: an initial cutoff of 5 p.m. on Thursday, followed by a secondary deadline this coming Tuesday.

“Every transaction in Bitcoin is logged on an open public ledger,” noted Ari Redbord, a former Department of Justice official now with TRM Labs. While the semi-anonymous nature of cryptocurrency often appeals to criminals, experts say law enforcement’s ability to “follow the money” on the blockchain provides a digital trail that cash or gold cannot match.

Evidence of a Struggle

The case was upgraded from a missing person report to a criminal investigation early in the week. Pima County Sheriff Chris Nanos confirmed that DNA testing of blood found on the porch of Nancy Guthrie’s home matched the 84-year-old.

Additional forensic evidence paints a chilling timeline of the abduction:

• Saturday, 9:30 p.m.: Family members drop Nancy off at her home after dinner.
• Sunday, 1:45 a.m.: The home’s doorbell camera is physically disconnected.
• Sunday, 2:28 a.m.: Software monitors indicate that Nancy’s pacemaker disconnected from her personal device, suggesting she was moved out of range of her home network.

“We believe Nancy is still out there,” Sheriff Nanos said during a press conference. “Our protocol is to assume she is alive until we are told otherwise, and we’re going to continue thinking that way until we find her.”

The Family’s Heartfelt Plea

Savannah Guthrie, who has taken an indefinite leave of absence from NBC, released a poignant video alongside her siblings, Annie and Camron. In the footage, Savannah’s voice breaks as she addresses the captors directly.

“We are ready to talk. However, we live in a world where voices and images are easily manipulated. We need to know without a doubt that she is alive.”

The plea for “proof of life” highlights the modern challenges of kidnapping in the age of AI. The family expressed fears that deepfake technology could be used to simulate Nancy’s voice or likeness to extract a ransom without her actually being safe.

The family also emphasized Nancy’s medical needs. The 84-year-old requires daily medication for heart issues and high blood pressure. “Her heart is fragile. She lives in constant pain,” Savannah said. “She needs her medicine to survive.”

Hoaxes and Red Herrings

The high-profile nature of the case has already attracted opportunists. On Thursday, authorities arrested Derrick Callella in Los Angeles. Callella is accused of sending “imposter” ransom notes to the Guthrie family demanding Bitcoin. Investigators clarified that Callella is a “scammer” attempting to profit from the tragedy and is not believed to be involved in the actual disappearance.

Ongoing Investigation

The FBI is currently offering a $50,000 reward for information leading to Nancy Guthrie’s return. President Donald Trump has also reportedly directed federal resources to assist in the search, calling the circumstances “very unusual.”

As the Tuesday deadline approaches, the Catalina Foothills community remains on edge. Neighbors have turned the local Saint Philip’s in the Hills Episcopal Church into a site for continuous prayer vigils, with a large photo of Nancy Guthrie illuminated by hundreds of candles.

Authorities are asking anyone with information, or anyone who may have seen a white van reported in the neighborhood prior to the disappearance, to contact the Pima County Sheriff’s Department immediately.

The latest Market Talks covering the Health Care sector. Published exclusively on Dow Jones Newswires at 4:20 ET, 12:20 ET and 16:50 ET.

1610 ET – Jefferies pushes back the timing of first revenues from Neuren Pharmaceuticals’s trofinetide treatment for Rett Syndrome in the European Union following a setback in getting approval. Neuren says its partner, Acadia Pharmaceuticals, was recently informed by a key committee of the European Medicines Agency of a negative trend vote on its Marketing Authorization Application for trofinetide. Analyst David Stanton says this was likely due to concerns about the effect size of the confirmatory trial. “As a result of this news, and to be conservative, we now assume royalties from EU sales of trofinetide at start 4Q FY26,” Jefferies says. That’s six months later than its prior forecast. Jefferies cuts its FY 2026 net profit forecast for Neuren by 17% to A$48.1 million, from A$58.2 million. It retains a buy call on the stock. (david.winning@wsj.com; @dwinningWSJ)

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