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Pub chain JD Wetherspoon issues profit warning over ‘substantial increases in costs’

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Sir Tim Martin warned the FTSE 250 pub chain could miss profit targets as rising energy costs and hospitality sector challenges mount

Founder and Chairman of JD Wetherspoon, Tim Martin, speaking at a press conference in the Hamilton Hall pub, in central London, following the publication of the pub chain's full year results in October 2020.

Founder and chairman of JD Wetherspoon Sir Tim Martin

JD Wetherspoon has cautioned it may fall short of profit targets due to “substantial increases in costs,” as pubs prepare for surging energy and shipping prices stemming from the Iran conflict. The UK’s most recognisable pub chain confirmed on Tuesday that the widely anticipated consequences from the Strait of Hormuz blockage have started to impact hospitality businesses.

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Chairman Sir Tim Martin, who lives in Devon, said: “As many hospitality operators, including Wetherspoon, have reported, there have been substantial increases in costs, which may result in profits slightly below market expectations.”

Despite mounting costs, Sir Tim noted Wetherspoon was performing ahead of the market, with its sales growth outpacing audit firm RSM’s hospitality business tracker for the 43rd consecutive month,as reported by City AM.

Like-for-like sales rose by 3.4 per cent in the three months to April, while sales in the year-to-date increased by 4.3 per cent.

However, the FTSE 250 pub chain’s growth for the period was marginally slower than in preceding quarters, it revealed.

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Wetherspoon has acquired 3.8m shares in the year to date at £6.80 per share, and purchased the freehold rights to four of its pubs, totalling £12.2m.

In March, shares in the pub operator fell after pre-tax profit for the first half of its financial year plummeted by 32 per cent to £22m, missing even analysts’ revised expectations.

Sir Tim said rises to national insurance and minimum wage were set to cost Wetherspoon £60m annually, alongside the £7m cost of a green levy.

He said at the time: “These cost increases will undoubtedly add to underlying inflation in the UK economy, although Wetherspoon, as always, will endeavour to keep price increases to a minimum.

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“There is clearly considerable pressure on consumer finances, combined with higher taxes, wages and energy costs for the hospitality industry.”

British pubs had been preparing for steeper energy bills as a consequence of the Middle East conflict, with other leading pub operators such as Shepherd Neame cautioning that costs will rise.

Hospitality businesses are also grappling with rising employment expenses and increases to business rates bills which took effect in April.

Two thirds of pubs, bars and restaurants will be compelled to reduce staff numbers to manage these fresh costs, while one in seven will close entirely, according to trade body UK Hospitality.

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Earlier this week, figures revealed that two pubs closed every day during the first three months of the year, totalling 161 businesses and 2,400 jobs lost.

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Godrej Consumer shares tumble 6% despite Q4 show. Should you buy, sell or hold the stock?

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Godrej Consumer shares tumble 6% despite Q4 show. Should you buy, sell or hold the stock?
Shares of Godrej Consumer Products slipped 5.5% to an intraday low of Rs 1,035 on the BSE on Thursday, despite the company reporting a 9.7% year-on-year rise in Q4 net profit to Rs 452 crore, driven by steady volume growth and strong performance across key categories.

Revenue for the quarter rose 11% to Rs 3,900 crore from Rs 3,514 crore a year earlier. EBITDA also increased 11% to Rs 841.4 crore from Rs 759.2 crore, while EBITDA margin remained unchanged at 21.6%. Consolidated sales in Q4 FY26 grew 11% year-on-year, supported by underlying volume growth of 6%. The standalone business posted volume growth of 8%, with sales rising 10%.

Among international markets, Indonesia sales increased 3%, while Africa, the US and West Asia delivered 20% growth. For the full FY26, consolidated sales rose 9% year-on-year, driven by 6% volume growth. Standalone sales grew 8% with volume growth of 6%.

What are experts saying?

Morgan Stanley has maintained its Equal-weight rating on Godrej Consumer Products with a target price of Rs 1,159, an upside of 6% from current levels. The brokerage expects stronger pricing-led topline growth in Q1 and Q2FY27, although margins could remain under pressure. It noted that the company implemented price hikes across soaps, detergents and home insecticides in April.

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Morgan Stanley highlighted that the India business reported 8% volume growth, while EBITDA margin remained within the guided range. Management has guided for FY27 EBITDA margins in the 24-26% band. The brokerage also pointed to signs of stabilisation in the Indonesia business following weak performance in earlier quarters. However, it flagged crude oil and palm oil inflation as near-term risks. It added that a warmer summer could support demand for soaps but may negatively impact the home insecticides segment.
Motilal Oswal has maintained its “Buy” rating on Godrej Consumer Products with a target price of Rs 1,300, implying a potential upside of 19%.
The brokerage said management remains focused on improving domestic business volumes and driving efficiencies across the value chain. It expects the GAUM business to deliver better profitability growth going ahead, while recovery in the Indonesia business is likely to become more meaningful from FY27 as market conditions stabilise.
Also read: Paytm shares climb 5% after Q4 results. Do Jefferies and Bernstein see further upside?

Management also expressed confidence in sustaining profitability momentum in FY27 despite macroeconomic challenges. Motilal Oswal noted that the company is expanding its total addressable market by entering faster-growing categories such as men’s face wash and toilet cleaners, while continuing to strengthen its core portfolio. It added that consistent efforts have also been made to address profitability and growth gaps in the international business. Given the company’s growth-focused strategy, the brokerage said it remains constructive on GCPL.

(Disclaimer: Recommendations, suggestions, views and opinions given by the experts are their own. These do not represent the views of The Economic Times)

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Dialysis Giant Crushes Q1 Earnings, Raises 2026 Outlook on Strong Demand

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NEW YORK — DaVita Inc. shares exploded higher by nearly 19% in morning trading Wednesday, May 6, 2026, after the leading kidney care provider delivered a blockbuster first-quarter earnings beat and raised its full-year guidance, signaling robust demand for dialysis services and continued operational efficiency gains.

DaVita stock climbed as high as 186.40, up more than 29 points or 18.70% shortly after the market open. The surge pushed the company’s market capitalization above $12 billion and marked one of the strongest single-day performances for the healthcare stock in recent years.

The rally followed DaVita’s May 5 after-hours report showing revenue of $3.42 billion for the quarter ended March 31, up 6% from a year earlier and topping Wall Street expectations of about $3.35 billion. Adjusted earnings per share hit $2.87, smashing consensus estimates of $2.33 by more than 23%.

Strong Volume, Cost Control Drive Outperformance

CEO Javier Rodriguez highlighted broad-based strength across key metrics. Treatment volume grew modestly, revenue per treatment rose, and patient care costs came in lower than anticipated thanks to improved labor productivity and technology initiatives.

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“We delivered strong financial results ahead of our expectations with outperformance from each element of our U.S. dialysis trilogy: treatment volume, revenue per treatment and cost per treatment,” Rodriguez said. Management pointed to favorable patient transfers linked to competitor clinic adjustments and better-than-expected mortality trends as supporting factors.

Adjusted operating income reached $482 million, while operating cash flow totaled $321 million and free cash flow turned positive at $140 million. DaVita also continued its aggressive share repurchase program, buying back 3 million shares in the quarter for $403 million and an additional 2 million shares post-quarter for $302 million.

Upward Revision to Full-Year Outlook

Investors reacted enthusiastically to the raised 2026 guidance. DaVita now expects adjusted operating income between $2.15 billion and $2.25 billion, up from the prior range, and adjusted EPS of $14.10 to $15.20. Free cash flow guidance remained steady at $1.0 billion to $1.25 billion.

The update reflects higher expected treatment volume growth of 25 to 50 basis points for the year and sustained cost discipline. Analysts noted the midpoint of the new EPS range sits comfortably above prior consensus.

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Deutsche Bank upgraded the stock to Buy and significantly raised its price target following the results, contributing to the bullish sentiment.

Industry Tailwinds and Strategic Focus

DaVita operates one of the largest networks of outpatient dialysis centers in the United States, serving patients with end-stage kidney disease. The company benefits from an aging population and stable Medicare reimbursement rates, even as it navigates labor costs and regulatory changes.

Progress in integrated kidney care, including value-based arrangements covering billions in annualized medical spend, provides additional growth levers. Management expressed confidence in its ability to deliver high-quality care while improving margins through AI-driven scheduling tools and other efficiencies.

The Q1 results come amid a broader recovery in healthcare stocks, though DaVita’s move stands out for its magnitude. The stock had already posted strong year-to-date gains entering the report but pulled back modestly in after-hours trading on May 5 before exploding higher on Wednesday as the full implications of the beat and raise sank in.

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Analyst Views and Valuation

Wall Street has grown more optimistic. With shares now trading around 15-16 times forward earnings, many view DaVita as attractively valued relative to its earnings power and cash generation. Share repurchases have meaningfully reduced the outstanding float, boosting per-share metrics.

Risks remain, including potential changes in government reimbursement policy, labor inflation and competition. However, management’s track record of execution and the defensive nature of dialysis services provide a buffer.

Looking Ahead

Attention now turns to sustained volume trends through the remainder of 2026 and further progress on integrated care initiatives. DaVita’s ability to maintain or expand margins while returning capital to shareholders will be key watchpoints.

For investors, the Wednesday surge underscores how positive surprises in a stable, essential healthcare business can drive outsized moves. DaVita has transformed operational challenges into opportunities, positioning itself for what management believes will be another strong year.

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As trading continues, the market appears to be rewarding DaVita’s consistent delivery and forward-looking confidence. Whether the momentum sustains will depend on broader market sentiment and the company’s execution in the quarters ahead, but today’s reaction signals strong belief in its trajectory.

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McDonald’s (MCD) Q1 2026 earnings

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McDonald's (MCD) Q1 2026 earnings

People walk by a McDonald’s restaurant on March 11, 2026 in Las Vegas, Nevada.

Kevin Carter | Getty Images

McDonald’s is expected to report its first-quarter earnings before the bell on Thursday.

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Here’s what Wall Street analysts surveyed by LSEG are expecting the company to report:

  • Earnings per share: $2.74 expected
  • Revenue: $6.47 billion expected

In March, McDonald’s and its CEO Chris Kempczinski went viral — in all the wrong ways — for a taste test of its new Arch Burger that viewers saw as less than enthusiastic. Despite the ridicule from rivals and social media users, Wall Street is still predicting that the fast-food giant had a strong quarter. Analysts are expecting McDonald’s to report same-store sales growth of 3.7%, according to StreetAccount estimates.

Investors will also be looking for any signs that higher gas prices are having an effect on McDonald’s sales. Since the U.S. war with Iran began at the end of February, average fuel prices have spiked, leading to higher prices at the pump and less disposable income for many consumers who were already feeling cash-strapped.

Shares of McDonald’s have fallen 10% over the last year, hurt by concerns about the broader economy. Over the same time, the S&P 500 has risen about 31%. The company has a market cap of roughly $201.5 billion.

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Perma-Fix Environmental Services, Inc. (PESI) Q1 2026 Earnings Call Transcript

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OneWater Marine Inc. (ONEW) Q1 2026 Earnings Call Transcript

Operator

Good day, ladies and gentlemen, and welcome to the Perma-Fix Fiscal First Quarter 2026 Earnings Conference Call. [Operator Instructions] And please note, this conference is being recorded. I will now turn the conference over to your host, Mr. David Waldman, Investor Relations. Sir, the floor is yours.

David Waldman
Crescendo Communications, LLC

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Thank you, and good morning, everyone. Welcome to Perma-Fix Environmental Services First Quarter 2026 Conference Call. On the call with us this morning are Mark Duff, President and CEO; Dr. Louis Centofanti, Executive Vice President of Strategic Initiatives; and Ben Naccarato, Chief Financial Officer. The company issued a press release this morning containing first quarter financial results, which is also posted on the company’s website. If you have any questions after the call or would like any additional information about the company, please contact Crescendo Communications at (212) 671-1020.

I’d also like to remind everyone that certain statements contained within this conference call may be deemed forward-looking statements within the meaning of the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995 and include certain non-GAAP financial measures. All statements on this conference call other than statements of historical fact are forward-looking statements that are subject to known and unknown risks, uncertainties, and other factors, which could cause actual results and performance of the company to differ materially from such statements. These risks and uncertainties are detailed in the company’s filings with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission as well as this morning’s press release. The company makes no commitment to disclose any

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Collapsed power tools company that sold Black and Decker and Dewalt to auction off remaining stock

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The Somerset-based business was founded in 1970 but ran into financial difficulties during the pandemic

A generic picture of Dewalt power tools

A generic picture of Dewalt power tools(Image: Michael M. Santiago/Getty Images)

A power tools business in Somerset that collapsed into administration earlier this year is selling off its remaining stock at auction. Yeovil-based Miles Tool & Machinery Centre was established in 1970 by Philip and Margaret Miles, and sold a range of specialist hardware, paints, parts and accessories.

The third-generation family business, which was based at Pen Mill Trading Estate, also offered a power tools repair service.

But financial problems arose during the pandemic after delays installing a new management system to track stock negatively impacted online sales. The difficulties were compounded when the company’s buying group, Troy, went into administration early last year, cutting off access to several key suppliers.

It is understood that Miles was also hit by rising costs, such as business rates and employers’ national insurance contributions, while struggling to repay loans it had taken out.

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In February, the company was forced to appoint joint administrators from Milstead Langdon and made all staff within the business redundant. The administrators are now selling off the company’s assets in a bid to recoup money for existing creditors.

According to an advert on property website Lambert Smith Hampton, an assortment of power tools worth £500,000 is going on sale by online auction this month.

Miles Tool & Machinery Centre is selling off its remaining stock at auction

Miles Tool & Machinery Centre is selling off its remaining stock at auction(Image: LSH)

Among the tools included in the listing are Black and Decker lawn mowers, hedge trimmers and chainsaws; Bosch hammer drills and angle grinders; Dewalt drills and cutting benches; and Metabo circular saws, strimmers and compressors.

Viewing of the tools will be available between 10am and 4pm on Wednesday, May 13, with the bidding closing from 1pm on May 14. Collection of the tools will need to be between Monday, May 18, and Wednesday, May 20, between 9am and 4pm.

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“A rescue of the company cannot be achieved due to the cessation of its trade and as a result of the significant debts that are owed by the company,” a document issued by the administrators on the Companies House website states.

According to Companies House, there are ordinary preferential creditors of £12,863 and secondary preferential creditors of £336,999. The unsecured creditors liability is expected to be nearly £1.5m, including shortfalls to the second and third charge holders.

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Former Santander banker pleads guilty to stealing from senior with dementia

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Former Santander banker pleads guilty to stealing from senior with dementia

A former Santander Bank employee in Rhode Island has pleaded guilty in federal court to charges related to stealing more than $125,000 from the bank account of a 78-year-old customer with dementia.

Carlos Bras, 41, of East Providence, appeared in federal court where he admitted to mail fraud and aggravated identity theft, the Justice Department said Wednesday. At the time of the theft, Bras was working for the Spain-based global financial institution as a “relationship manager” just over the state line at a Seekonk, Massachusetts, branch.

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In his role, Bras assisted patrons with their accounts and had access to sensitive customer data, including the account of a 78-year-old man identified only as “MDR,” who was residing in an assisted living facility in Milton, Massachusetts. 

Federal prosecutors said Bras impersonated the man over the phone and online to obtain checks and a debit card for the account. 

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The Santander bank is seen on the facade of the corporate building

A former Santander Bank employee in Rhode Island has pleaded guilty in federal court to charges. (Henry Romero/Reuters, File / Reuters)

“The object of the scheme to defraud was for Bras to unlawfully enrich himself by using his access to Victim #1’s account to issue checks, conduct bank transfers, send wires, and make debit card purchases for himself,” court documents state.

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Bras’ activity was flagged by Santander’s internal fraud detection unit, which contacted the Seekonk Police Department, sparking an investigation that also involved the U.S. Secret Service.

Bras allegedly accessed the victim’s account approximately 88 times between April and July 2023. To conceal his activity, authorities said he used a TracFone — a prepaid wireless service often used to obscure identity — to check the status of illegal money transfers.

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A Santander bank building at night.

A former Santander employee in Rhode Island admitted to stealing more than $125,000 from an elderly client with dementia, federal prosecutors said.  (Kacper Pempel/Reuters, File / Reuters)

Prosecutors allege Bras purchased a 2023 KIA Sportage with the stolen money and fabricated a contract to make it appear that MDR was buying land from Bras’ wife. 

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When questioned by an internal bank investigator, Bras claimed his wife was a real estate agent in Portugal, and that the wires were part of a property transaction. Authorities say he sent at least 10 wire transfers totaling $9,690 via Western Union to accounts in Portugal; Bras personally received nine of those transfers.

When confronted, Bras repeatedly changed his story, initially claiming he did not know MDR, and then later claiming MDR was “upset” and had asked Bras to receive checks at his personal residence.

Ticker Security Last Change Change %
SAN BANCO SANTANDER SA 12.40 +0.52 +4.38%

The bank eventually terminated Bras in July 2023. 

A Santander spokesperson told FOX Business that Santander Bank had proactively brought the matter to law enforcement’s attention and worked with the customer to resolve the issue.

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“Santander Bank’s highest priority is protecting our customers and their accounts,” the bank said. 

Justice Department seal

Federal prosecutors said Bras impersonated the man over the phone and online to obtain checks and a debit card for the account. (Samuel Corum/Bloomberg via Getty Images / Getty Images)

Bras’ attorney, Kensley Barrett, told FOX Business that Bras has “accepted responsibility for his actions and is remorseful for what led to this regrettable situation, including the impact on those negatively affected.”

“He is committed to atoning for his actions and ensuring this mistake doesn’t define him,” Barrett said. 

Under the terms of his plea deal, Bras must forfeit $126,000 to the federal government. He faces up to 32 years in prison when he is sentenced Sept. 15. 

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Bras was released from federal custody in October on a $10,000 bond. 

His attorney has asked a judge to allow him to travel to Massachusetts, citing his role as a youth soccer coach and arguing that the ability to travel would increase his job prospects, WPRI-TV reported.

FOX Business has reached out to Santander.

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Paytm shares climb 5% after Q4 results. Do Jefferies and Bernstein see further upside?

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Paytm shares climb 5% after Q4 results. Do Jefferies and Bernstein see further upside?
Shares of One 97 Communications, the parent company of Paytm, rallied as much as 5% to their day’s high of Rs 1,166 on the BSE on Thursday after it reported a profit of Rs 184 crore for the fourth quarter, compared with a loss of Rs 540 crore in the same quarter last year.

The year-ago performance was impacted by a one-time charge linked to CEO Vijay Shekhar Sharma relinquishing his employee stock options. Revenue from operations for the quarter rose 18% year-on-year (YoY) to Rs 2,264 crore.

Paytm also reported a positive EBITDA of Rs 132 crore, versus a loss of Rs 88 crore a year earlier, though it was lower than the Rs 156 crore reported in the December quarter.

EBITDA margin came in at 6%, compared with a negative 5% in the corresponding period last year. The company said comparable EBITDA, excluding UPI and PIDF incentives, improved by Rs 330 crore year-on-year, indicating stronger underlying profitability.

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Paytm shares: Should you buy, sell or hold?


Jefferies has maintained a Buy rating on Paytm with a target price of Rs 1,350, an upside of 22% from current levels. The brokerage said revenue momentum helped offset the impact of missing UPI incentives during the quarter.
The Wall Street major highlighted that revenue growth of 18% was driven by the financial services business and came despite the absence of both PIDF and UPI incentives.The brokerage added that Paytm’s strong revenue momentum could continue to support earnings even amid risks related to UPI incentives.

Bernstein has maintained its “Outperform” rating on Paytm with a target price of Rs 1,500. Looking ahead, Bernstein expects non-linear EBITDA expansion over FY26-30, driven by revenue growth of over 20% along with disciplined cost management. The brokerage further noted that indirect expenses remained well controlled, rising 3% sequentially while declining 3% YoY. Payment margin, however, fell to 9 basis points due to the discontinuation of PIDF incentives.

(Disclaimer: Recommendations, suggestions, views and opinions given by the experts are their own. These do not represent the views of The Economic Times)

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Cento Fine Foods sued over alleged San Marzano ‘tomato fraud’

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Cento Fine Foods sued over alleged San Marzano 'tomato fraud'

A major food brand is being sued over claims it falsely marketed its canned tomatoes as premium “San Marzano” products.

Cento Fine Foods, based in New Jersey, is facing a proposed class action lawsuit claiming it misled consumers by labeling its tomatoes as “certified” San Marzano despite allegedly failing to meet the strict standards associated with the variety, according to a May 4 complaint filed in federal court in California.

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“San Marzano tomatoes are considered the Ferrari or Prada of canned tomato varieties,” the lawsuit states, quoting Martha Stewart’s website. “Loyalists say they are well worth the higher price tag compared to other Italian or domestically produced options.”

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Cento san-marzano-tomatoes

The complaint, filed May 4 in federal court in California, accuses Cento Fine Foods of falsely labeling its tomatoes as “certified.” (U.S. District Court For the Northern District of California)

“San Marzano” refers to both a variety of tomato and a region in Italy where they are traditionally grown. The tomatoes are a type of plum tomato, typically longer and more slender than standard varieties, with a distinct pointed end and fewer seeds, according to Martha Stewart’s website.

Under European Union rules, authentic San Marzano tomatoes carry a “Protected Designation of Origin” (DOP) status — similar to products like Champagne — meaning they must be grown and processed in a designated region of southern Italy and meet strict production standards.

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The complaint alleges Cento’s use of “certified” falsely suggests the products are officially recognized San Marzano tomatoes, calling the brand “the primary culprit of this tomato fraud in the United States.”

“Defendant’s claims that its tomatoes are ‘certified’ ‘San Marzano’ tomatoes misleadingly convey that the product is the famous San Marzano tomato certified by and exceeding the standards of Consorzio di Tutela del Pomodoro San Marzano dell’Agro Sarnese-Nocerino when in fact the product does not meet that standard,” the complaint states.

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San Marzano tomatoes are pictured in Campania, Italy.

San Marzano tomatoes are pictured in Campania, Italy. (DeAgostini/Getty Images / Getty Images)

The plaintiffs say they bought Cento’s San Marzano tomatoes believing they were “authentic.” They allege the products fell short of true DOP standards and say they “would never have purchased Cento San Marzanos” if they had known.

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The lawsuit seeks at least $25 million in restitution and changes to Cento’s business practices.

In a statement to “Good Morning America,” an attorney for Cento pushed back on the allegations.

“We believe this claim is entirely without merit. We have previously successfully defended a comparable lawsuit in New York federal court and will defend this claim vigorously as well, including seeking prompt dismissal,” the attorney said.

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Cento san-marzano-tomatoes

An attorney for Cento pushed back on the allegations. (U.S. District Court For the Northern District of California)

The company has previously faced similar claims. In a 2019 class action lawsuit, Cento said it “refutes” allegations that its tomatoes are not genuine.

“Our fields and farmers are audited by an independent third party in Italy who assures that the tomatoes are grown in the rich fertile soil of Sarnese-Nocerino at the base of Mt. Vesuvius in Campagna,” the company said at the time.

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That case was dismissed in 2020, “Good Morning America” reported.

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Cento Fine Foods did not immediately respond to FOX Business’ request for comment.

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Velocity Financial, Inc. (VEL) Q1 2026 Earnings Call Transcript

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OneWater Marine Inc. (ONEW) Q1 2026 Earnings Call Transcript

Operator

Good day, and welcome to the Velocity Financial First Quarter of 2026 Results Conference Call. Please note that today’s event is being recorded. [Operator Instructions]

I would now like to turn the call over to the Treasurer, Chris Oltmann. Please go ahead.

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Christopher Oltmann
Corporate Treasurer & Director of Investor Relations

Thanks, Joe. Hello, everyone, and thank you for joining us today for the discussion of Velocity’s first quarter 2026 results. Joining me today are Chris Farrar, Velocity’s President and Chief Executive Officer; and Mark Szczepaniak, Velocity’s Chief Financial Officer.

Earlier this afternoon, we released a press release with our first quarter results, and you can find the press release and accompanying presentation that we will refer to during this call on our Investor Relations website at www.velfinance.com.

I’d like to remind everybody that today’s call may include forward-looking statements, which are uncertain and outside of the company’s control, and actual results may differ materially. For a discussion of some of the risks and other factors that could affect results, please see the risk factors and other cautionary statements made in our communications with shareholders, including the risk factors disclosed in our filings with the Securities and Exchange Commission. Please also note that the content of this conference call contains time-sensitive information that is accurate only as of today, and we do not undertake any duty to update forward-looking statements.

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We may also refer to certain non-GAAP measures on this call. For reconciliations of these non-GAAP measures, you

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RBI may have to bear forex risk to boost foreign money inflows

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RBI may have to bear forex risk to boost foreign money inflows
Kolkata: India’s efforts to draw more dollar investments, likely from non-residents, would probably need the central bank’s support the ensure that the exchange risks are covered and yields are higher than in global markets, particularly the US, economists said.

“We are pencilling in a large balance of payment (BOP) deficit of around $68 billion in FY27. Unless the global backdrop changes to lower oil prices, this is the gap that will likely need to be plugged via the forex deposit scheme being considered,” Nomura’s Sonal Varma said in a report.

After a 6% retreat in the currency in 2026 and the worst fiscal-year fall in 14 years in FY26, the rupee’s performance has often been cited as the cause for persistent exits by overseas funds. Recent media reports suggest the central bank might start a dedicated program to draw dollar inflows, although Mint Road has not confirmed the likelihood of any such program.

Nomura said that such programs need to account for higher dollar deposit rates globally compared to domestic deposit costs. Nomura argued that the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) may need to provide higher subsidies to make such a scheme attractive for banks.

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According to a Reuters report on May 4, two options are being explored by the RBI-reviving a scheme similar to the 2013 FCNR(B) scheme and eliminating the 5% withholding tax on overseas government bond investors to encourage inflows.


A Bloomberg report the next day suggested the RBI is discussing an option similar to the India Millennium Deposits (IMD) in 2000, under which State Bank of India (SBI) had issued foreign-currency bonds.
The global interest rates are much higher today than in 2013, when US policy rates were near zero.

RBI may have to Bear Forex Risk to Boost Foreign Money InflowsAgencies

Weak Re weighs For deposit schemes to succeed, yields will have to be higher than global rates

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“This may mean that the structure of any new scheme being considered will need to be modified to account for higher dollar deposit rates globally and lower domestic deposit costs. This may require a higher subsidy from the RBI to make the scheme attractive for banks,” Varma said.

Bank of Baroda chief economist Madan Sabnavis differed with the view on the need for special schemes to attract dollars. “If remittances and NRI deposits are not rising, the expat population has a problem and will not be able to invest in such bonds even if issued,” he said.

However, he suggested that if India at all issues bonds like IMD, the yield would have to be higher than local deposit rates in the US.

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“For them to be feasible for Indian banks, the rate should still be lower than domestic deposits. Otherwise, it may not be viable especially as exchange risk is taken on by the banks,” he said, adding that the exchange risk is something where the government or RBI has to take on.

Earlier, India had come out with three specific schemes to attract dollar-denominated investments- the Resurgent India Bonds (1998), the India Millennium Deposit (2000) and the FCNR(B) swap window (2013).

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