Crypto World
BTC’s downside volatility is a feature, not a crisis, says hedge funder
Bitcoin’s sharp decline — nearly 50% from its all-time highs reached just months ago — has reignited debate over the cryptocurrency’s stability, but hedge fund veteran Gary Bode says the selloff is a feature of the asset’s inherent volatility rather than a sign of a broader crisis.
In a post on X, Bode noted that while the recent price drop is “unpleasant and jarring,” it is not unusual in bitcoin’s history. “80% – 90% drawdowns are common,” he said. “Those who have been willing to stomach the always-temporary volatility have been well-rewarded with incredible long-term returns.”
Much of the recent turbulence, he said, can be traced to market reactions to the nomination of Kevin Warsh to succeed Jerome Powell as Federal Reserve chair. Investors interpreted the move as a signal that the Fed might adopt a hawkish stance, raising interest rates and making zero-yield assets such as bitcoin, gold, and silver relatively less attractive. Margin calls on leveraged positions amplified the decline, causing a cascade of forced selling.
Bode, however, disputes the market’s interpretation. He pointed to Warsh’s public statements supporting lower rates and notes from President Trump suggesting Warsh promised a lower fed funds rate. Combined with Congress’ ongoing multi-trillion-dollar deficits, Bode argued, the Fed has limited ability to influence longer-term Treasury yields — a key factor in corporate borrowing and mortgage rates. “I think the market got this one wrong” he said, emphasizing that perception, rather than fundamentals, drove much of the recent selling.
Other commonly cited explanations, he said, also fail to tell the full story. One theory is that “whales” — early bitcoin holders who mined or purchased coins when prices were near zero — are offloading holdings. While Bode acknowledges that large wallets have been active and some big sellers have emerged, he frames these moves as profit-taking rather than an indication of long-term weakness. “The technical skill of the early adopters and miners is something to be applauded,” he said. “That doesn’t mean that their sales (full or partial) tell us much about the future of bitcoin.”
Bode also flagged Strategy ($MSTR) as a potential source of short-term pressure. The company’s stock fell after bitcoin slid below the prices at which Strategy purchased many of its holdings, prompting fears that Saylor might sell. Bode described this risk as real but limited, comparing it to when Warren Buffett buys a large stake in a company: investors like the support but worry about eventual sales. He stressed that bitcoin itself would survive such events, though prices could temporarily dip.
Another factor is the rise of “paper” bitcoin — financial instruments such as exchange-traded funds (ETFs) and derivatives that track the crypto asset’s price without requiring ownership of the underlying coins. While these instruments increase the effective supply available for trading, they do not alter bitcoin’s hard cap of 21 million coins, which Bode said remains a crucial anchor for long-term value. He drew parallels to the silver market, where increased paper trading initially suppresses prices until physical demand pushes them higher.
Some analysts have suggested that rising energy prices could hurt bitcoin mining and reduce the network’s hash rate, potentially lowering long-term prices. Bode calls this theory overblown.
Historical data shows that past bitcoin price drops did not consistently result in hash rate declines, and when declines did occur, they lagged months behind the price drop.
He also pointed to emerging energy technologies — including small modular nuclear reactors and solar-powered AI data centers — that could provide low-cost power for mining in the future.
Bode also addressed critiques that bitcoin is not a “store of value.” While some argue that its volatility disqualifies it from this role, Bode points out that nearly every asset carries risk — including fiat currencies backed by heavily indebted governments. “[…] Gold does require energy to secure unless you’re comfortable leaving it on your front porch,” he said. “Paper Bitcoin can influence the short-term price, but long-term, there are 21MM coins that will be issued and if you want to own Bitcoin, that’s the real asset. Bitcoin is permissionless and requires no trust in a counterparty.”
Ultimately, Bode’s assessment frames the recent decline as a natural consequence of bitcoin’s design. Volatility is part of the game and those willing to endure it may ultimately be rewarded. For investors, the key takeaway is that price swings, no matter how dramatic, are not necessarily a signal of systemic risk.
The United States has granted a nationwide banking charter to a crypto-friendly startup for the first time during President Trump’s second term, signaling a rare regulatory opening for niche lenders that straddle technology and finance. The Office of the Comptroller of the Currency confirmed Erebor Bank’s charter, allowing the lender to operate across the country and serve a market long underserved after the 2023 Silicon Valley Bank collapse, according to people familiar with the matter cited by the Wall Street Journal. Erebor begins life with about $635 million in capital and a mandate to back startups, venture-backed firms, and high-net-worth clients while pursuing a differentiated set of services tailored to cutting-edge tech sectors.
The approval comes as part of a broader movement to redefine how traditional banks engage with crypto-friendly business lines, fintech models, and complex asset classes. Erebor’s launch is anchored by a roster of prominent technology investors, including Andreessen Horowitz, Founders Fund, Lux Capital, 8VC and investor Elad Gil. Palmer Luckey, Oculus co-creator and Erebor’s founder, will sit on the bank’s board but will not manage day-to-day operations, a structure described to sources close to the matter. The bank’s regulatory path has already included a deposit insurance clearance from the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (FDIC), underscoring a careful balance between innovation and consumer protections.
Industry observers note that Erebor is positioning itself to address a unique demand: lending to tech-forward firms whose assets, including crypto holdings or private securities, may require non-traditional collateral frameworks. The bank’s blueprint also envisions a future where blockchain-based payment rails enable rolling settlements—a feature that diverges from the conventional, business-hours timetable of many U.S. banking rails. The project’s backers have framed Erebor as a “farmers’ bank for tech,” a nod to the expertise needed to evaluate startups whose assets aren’t always easy to quantify by traditional metrics.
In late 2024, Erebor’s capital raise and strategic milestones were mirrored in the broader tech-finance press, with coverage highlighting the bank’s ambitious scope and its founders’ willingness to explore uncharted territory in U.S. banking. The Bank’s trajectory has been tied to a broader push by high-profile investors to reshape crypto banking in the United States, with conversations around regulatory alignment and product suitability for crypto-related activities continuing to unfold across the ecosystem. The project’s narrative also intersects with broader industry discussions about how banks can adapt to support frontier technologies while maintaining prudent risk controls.
As Erebor evolves, it plans to offer lending backed by crypto holdings or private securities, and to finance acquisitions of high-performance AI hardware—an area where demand has grown as generative models and specialized chips have become central to competitive advantage. The bank’s leadership argues that technical sophistication matters when assessing borrowers whose value is tied to innovation, rather than conventional asset bases. This approach could help fill a vacuum left by traditional banks that pulled back from specialized tech lending after the SVB disruptions.
Coverage over the following months tied Erebor’s story to a broader wave of crypto-native banking efforts and regulatory discussions. In related reporting, industry observers noted the ongoing conversation around how new charters might coexist with crypto custody, on-chain settlement, and risk-management frameworks designed to protect consumers and institutions alike.
Key takeaways
- The OCC granted Erebor Bank a nationwide charter, enabling operations across the United States and formalizing a crypto-friendly banking approach for a niche client base.
- The lender starts with approximately $635 million in capital and aims to serve startups, venture-backed firms, and high-net-worth clients underserved after the 2023 SVB collapse.
- Erebor’s backers include Andreessen Horowitz, Founders Fund, Lux Capital, 8VC and Elad Gil; Palmer Luckey sits on the board but will not manage daily operations.
- FDIC deposit insurance was approved, adding a layer of consumer protection to the bank’s regulatory standing.
- The bank intends to explore blockchain-based payment rails for continuous settlement and to offer credit lines backed by crypto holdings or private securities, plus financing for AI hardware purchases.
Tickers mentioned:
Market context: The Erebor charter comes amid a broader regulatory dialogue around crypto-friendly banking and fintech partnerships in the United States, reflecting ongoing efforts to reconcile innovation with safety standards and consumer protections. Regulatory attention remains focused on how specialized banks can support frontier technologies while maintaining robust risk controls in an evolving landscape.
Why it matters
For startups navigating a capital-intensive growth phase, Erebor represents a potential new channel that blends traditional banking with a deep understanding of technology-driven business models. By anchoring lending strategies to assets such as crypto holdings and private securities, the bank could provide credit facilities that are more attuned to the capital structures of venture-backed companies and cutting-edge manufacturers. This approach could help alleviate liquidity strains that some tech teams faced during the SVB downturn, offering a more diversified banking relationship beyond the conventional routes that often rely on standard collateral.
Investors and builders may view Erebor’s platform as a test case for how specialized financial services can evolve to accommodate emerging industries—defense tech, robotics, AI-driven manufacturing, and other sectors where conventional metrics do not easily capture value. The combination of a robust capital base, notable backers, and a charter that enables nationwide operations could set the stage for more banks to calibrate their risk models toward the needs of frontier tech ecosystems. Yet the model also invites scrutiny around governance, liquidity risk, and the management of crypto-related exposures, especially as ongoing debates about stablecoins, custody, and on-chain settlement unfold in regulatory circles.
In a landscape where crypto and traditional finance increasingly intersect, Erebor’s trajectory could influence competitor strategies and policy discussions about how banking products should adapt to serve technology-forward clients without compromising safety. The bank’s willingness to pursue blockchain rails and crypto-backed credit arrangements signals a broader shift in which regulated institutions experiment with novel settlement mechanisms and capital structures to support rapid innovation.
What to watch next
- The pace and scale of Erebor’s onboarding of startups and venture-backed clients as it transitions from charter approval to full-scale nationwide operations.
- Regulatory updates on risk management practices, asset collateralization standards, and any changes to how blockchain-based settlement features integrate with conventional banking rails.
- Further disclosures on the composition of loan portfolios, particularly those backed by crypto holdings or private securities, and how these exposures are hedged or liquidated if market conditions tighten.
- Details on governance and operational oversight as Luckey participates on the board, including any updates to management structure or external audits.
Sources & verification
- Wall Street Journal report on the OCC charter approval for Erebor Bank. https://www.wsj.com/finance/banking/hobbit-inspired-startup-becomes-first-new-bank-greenlighted-by-trump-2-0-0d6075ef
- FDIC press release confirming deposit insurance approval for Erebor Bank NA. https://www.fdic.gov/news/press-releases/2025/fdic-approves-deposit-insurance-application-erebor-bank-na-columbus-ohio
- Preliminary conditional approval of Erebor by the OCC. https://cointelegraph.com/news/peter-thiel-erebor-silicon-valley-bank-rival-approval
- Valuation context following a Lux Capital-led round that propelled Erebor to a multi-billion-dollar valuation. https://cointelegraph.com/news/palmer-luckey-erebor-valuation-occ-fdic-crypto-bank
Regulatory milestones redefine crypto-friendly banking in the US
Erebor’s charter marks a notable inflection point in the regulatory landscape for crypto-adjacent banking endeavors. The OCC’s decision to charter a bank expressly positioned to engage with technology-driven clients signals a pathway for growth that balances innovation with the protections expected of federally chartered lenders. The FDIC’s deposit insurance approval further certifies a structural commitment to consumer protection, a critical factor for institutions considering crypto-backed financing models or on-chain settlement capabilities.
As Erebor moves toward full-scale operations, the industry will watch how its governance and risk frameworks evolve, how the bank manages collateral volatility tied to crypto markets, and how its product suite—ranging from crypto-backed lending to blockchain settlement rails—is received by regulators, customers, and rival banks. The broader banking ecosystem is contending with questions about capital adequacy, liquidity management, and the compatibility of new tech-driven products with established supervision regimes. Erebor’s progress could influence the speed at which others pursue niche charters and crypto-friendly banking partnerships in a climate where innovation and caution must be carefully balanced.
Crypto World
BlockDag presale finally ends while Remittix sees thousands of holders join its new 300% bonus offer
Disclosure: This article does not represent investment advice. The content and materials featured on this page are for educational purposes only.
BlockDag closes $453m presale ahead of Feb 16 listing as Remittix surges with 300% bonus and growing investor demand.
Summary
- Remittix raises $28.9m and launches its crypto-to-fiat platform Feb. 9, drawing strong investor attention in 2026.
- CertiK-audited Remittix gains traction with live wallet access, real-world utility, and a limited 300% bonus offer.
- Over 703m tokens sold as Remittix positions itself as a leading PayFi project bridging crypto and fiat payments.
The crypto market is buzzing, especially with the recent conclusion of BlockDag’s presale. The project has raised a massive $453 million, and now, with its official exchange listing set for February 16th, it’s on the verge of disrupting the blockchain world. However, one project is quickly gaining more traction, offering tremendous potential for early investors: Remittix.
As BlockDag’s presale wraps up, Remittix, with its 300% bonus offer, is drawing in thousands of new investors, catching the eye of those looking for the next big crypto opportunity. With its wallet already live and a crypto-to-fiat platform launching soon, investors are racing to buy RTX tokens before the presale ends, and the next XRP-like opportunity slips away.
BlockDag’s rise amid a transforming crypto landscape
BlockDag’s presale has certainly caught the attention of the crypto community. With over 312,000 participants and a price launch target of $0.05, this project is poised to make waves in the industry. The tech behind BlockDag promises to support 15,000 transactions per second, with predictions pointing to price highs of $0.30 by February 26, $0.20 for March, and even $0.45 by April.
However, the window for massive returns in BlockDag is likely narrowing. With the presale completed, the project is now shifting to the exchange phase, where exponential growth may be limited compared to the early entry points. While it’s expected to perform well post-listing, the real opportunity has passed for presale investors. This gives rise to the perfect question: What’s next for those seeking higher returns in the ever-shifting world of crypto?
Remittix: The next major opportunity in crypto
While BlockDag has its potential, Remittix is quickly becoming the top crypto to buy now in 2026, offering something different to its community. With over $28.9 million raised through the sale of 703.7 million tokens, currently priced at $0.123 each, Remittix stands out as a project with real-world utility that’s already beginning to change the crypto landscape.
The crypto-to-fiat platform launching on February 9, 2026, is a game-changer, giving users the ability to convert crypto into fiat seamlessly. As the Remittix wallet is already available on the Apple App Store with Google Play coming soon, it is evident that Remittix is taking all the right steps to provide lasting value.
Remittix has not only raised significant funds but has also passed a rigorous CertiK security audit, further cementing its position as a safe and trustworthy investment. The 300% bonus offer, which has caught the attention of many new crypto buyers, is yet another reason why this project is attracting so much attention.
Paired with Remittix’s secure and transparent development, this incentive has already led thousands of holders to join the Remittix community. With so much value locked in the token, the 300% bonus gives buyers the chance to maximize their returns before Remittix becomes a household name in the crypto world.
Remittix is poised to become one of the top crypto assets in the world, offering the following strengths:
- Over 93% of the total token supply has already been sold, creating scarcity that could drive up the value of $RTX in the near future.
- The upcoming launch of the crypto-to-fiat platform on February 9th promises to solve one of the biggest problems in the crypto world: bridging digital assets and real-world finance.
- With its CertiK verification, transparent development process, and early-stage community support, Remittix is one of the most promising new altcoins to consider for long-term growth.
- The 300% bonus offer, exclusively available to email subscribers, creates a sense of urgency for investors to act before the opportunity is gone.
- The wallet’s already live, and Android users can expect it soon, positioning Remittix as a leader in the growing PayFi sector.
Why now is the time to act
With only a few tokens remaining, there’s no time to wait. Over 93% of the supply has already been sold, and as more listings are set to be announced, the window for securing tokens at this price is closing fast. For those searching for the best crypto to buy now in 2026, Remittix offers a rare opportunity for exponential growth.
The crypto market is volatile, but Remittix provides a clear use case and a roadmap that gives it staying power. With its upcoming crypto-to-fiat platform and PayFi ecosystem, this is a project built to thrive in the real world, not just on speculative hype. The combination of security, real-world utility, and community engagement positions Remittix as one of the best investments you can make today.
For more information, visit the official website or socials.
Disclosure: This content is provided by a third party. Neither crypto.news nor the author of this article endorses any product mentioned on this page. Users should conduct their own research before taking any action related to the company.
The Bitcoin network mining difficulty, a metric tracking the relative challenge of adding new blocks to the Bitcoin (BTC) ledger, fell by about 11.16% in the last 24 hours, the worst drop in a single adjustment period since China’s 2021 ban on crypto mining.
Bitcoin mining difficulty is at 125.86 T and took effect at block 935,429, data from CoinWarz shows. The average block time is over 11 minutes, overshooting the 10-minute target.
Difficulty is projected to fall again in the next adjustment on February 23 by about 10.4% to 112.7 T, according to CoinWarz.
China announced a ban on crypto mining and began enforcing a crackdown on digital assets in May 2021, resulting in several downward difficulty adjustments between May and July 2021, ranging from 12.6% to 27.9%, according to historic data from CoinWarz.
The steep downward adjustment came amid a broad crypto market downturn, which crashed the price of Bitcoin by over 50% from the all-time high of over $125,000 to a low of $60,000, and a winter storm in the US that caused temporary miner downtime.
Related: Bitcoin’s ‘miner exodus’ could push BTC price below $60K
Winter Storm Fern sweeps through the US and curtails miner hashrate
A severe winter storm swept through the United States in January, impacting 34 states across 2,000 square miles with snow, ice and freezing temperatures that disrupted electrical infrastructure.
The disruption to the power grid caused US-based Bitcoin miners to temporarily curtail their energy usage and halt operations, reducing the total network hashrate, the amount of computational power expended by miners to secure the Bitcoin protocol.
Foundry USA, a US-based mining pool and the biggest mining pool by hashrate in the world, briefly lost about 60% of its hashing power amid winter storm Fern.
The mining pool’s total hashing power declined from nearly 400 exahashes per second (EH/s) to about 198 EH/s in response to the storm.
Foundry USA’s hashrate recovered to over 354 EH/s, the mining pool’s hashing power at the time of this writing, and it still commands 29.47% of the market share, according to Hashrate Index.
However, the total Bitcoin network hashrate declined to a four-month low in January amid deteriorating crypto market conditions and miners shifting operations to AI data centers and other forms of high-performance computing.
Magazine: Bitcoin mining industry ‘going to be dead in 2 years’: Bit Digital CEO
Crypto World
2026’s Best Presale Crypto: Can IPO Genie, Ruvi AI, & Nexchain Really Compete with ZKP Crypto?
New crypto presales release every week, but what truly sets apart the heroes? If we’ve learned anything from 2025, traders find value in real-life utility, spotlighting projects like IPO Genie, Ruvi AI, and Nexchain as standout choices in Q1 2026.
IPO Genie at $0.000119 unlocks private investments from $10, promising 1000x returns on $1,000 amid $1 million raises. Ruvi AI at $0.020 powers a creator rewards super app with over $5 million secured, while Nexchain at $0.12 bridges chains for multi-chain scalability.
But, Zero Knowledge Proof (ZKP), towers above the other names as the best presale crypto of 2026. What makes this project special is that it’s self-funded over $100 million for privacy-protected AI on a ready Layer-1. Its 17-stage auction is actively targeting a record $1.7 billion accumulation. Read on to see what makes these projects special in 2026.
1. Zero Knowledge Proof (ZKP): AI & Privacy-Based Auctions Target 600x Upside
ZKP crypto or Zero Knowledge Proof (ZKP) leads 2026 presales with a ready Layer-1 blockchain, self-funded by over $100 million for robust infrastructure. This platform enables privacy-protected AI computations, letting enterprises process encrypted data without exposing sensitive details. Its focus on real technology sets it apart in a crowded market.
The presale runs as a 450-day Initial Coin Auction across 17 stages, ensuring fair and transparent pricing. Stage 2 now releases 190 million ZKP tokens daily from a 4.75 billion pool, with unallocated tokens burned permanently to enforce scarcity. Already $1.78 million raised signals accelerating interest toward a $1.7 billion target.
Stage 1 launched with 11.8 billion tokens at 200 million daily, building early momentum. Each phase reduces supply progressively, ramping up competition as buyers secure shares at uniform prices by connecting wallets. This structure creates natural demand pressure.
By Stage 17, daily releases drop 80% to just 40 million tokens, compounding tightness over time. Burns remove unsold supply daily, tightening circulation as awareness builds through 2027. Participants compete harder in later rounds for dwindling allocations.
Analysts project 100x to 600x returns from current levels. This math stems from controlled distribution and rising utility in finance, healthcare, and AI sectors. ZKP stands as the best presale crypto for blending privacy innovation with proven tokenomics.
2. IPO Genie: Democratizing Private Investments
IPO Genie revolutionizes access to private and pre-IPO deals, letting everyday investors start with just $10 using AI-driven vetting for company data, growth, and risks. The $IPO token powers platform access, voting on deals, priority entry, and participation rights. Priced at $0.000119, it has raised nearly $1 million in two months, signaling strong early traction in Q1 2026. This utility-focused model positions IPO Genie as the best presale crypto for bridging Web3 with traditional private markets.
A $1,000 investment secures 8.4 million $IPO tokens, boosted to 11.59 million with 20% welcome and 15% referral bonuses. Potential returns shine: 100x hits $138,000, 500x reaches $690,000, and 1000x yields $1.38 million. Analysts track it alongside peers for real tokenomics over hype, making early entry a calculated play on democratized wealth creation.
3. Ruvi AI: Rewarding Creators & Engagement Incentives
Ruvi AI stands out as a Web3 AI super app bundling image, video, and text generation tools, where users earn RUVI tokens for usage and content creation shared in its marketplace. At $0.020, token utility covers advanced features, payments, buying/selling, voting, and rewards distribution. Having raised over $5 million in later presale phases, it taps AI and creator economy trends, differentiating from fee-based platforms by fostering ownership. Ruvi AI earns its spot as the best presale crypto through practical utility that aligns user activity with token demand.
This reward system fuels engagement, as creators monetize directly while accessing premium AI capabilities. Analysts highlight its momentum in 2026, where AI integration meets sustainable economics, promising growth as adoption scales across content creators seeking fair compensation.
4. Nexchain: Bridging Chains
Nexchain tackles blockchain interoperability as a Layer-1 solution for seamless cross-chain communication, using AI to optimize network performance and reduce transfer costs. Priced at $0.12 per NEX, its token handles transaction fees, staking, voting, and developer tools. Long-term value hinges on developer adoption for infrastructure plays, making Nexchain the best presale crypto for builders eyeing multi-chain futures.
Analysts group it with utility peers for its focus on real-world scalability in Q1 2026. Success builds gradually as ecosystems interconnect, rewarding patient investors with staking yields and governance influence amid rising demand for unified blockchain operations.
To Summarize
Not all crypto presales are built the same, and 2026 is proving that utility-driven projects consistently outperform hype-led launches. IPO Genie, Ruvi AI, and Nexchain each solve real problems, opening private markets to retail investors, rewarding creators through AI-powered tools, and enabling seamless cross-chain scalability.
However, Zero Knowledge Proof (ZKP) clearly separates itself from the pack. Unlike early-stage concepts, ZKP launches with a fully funded Layer-1 blockchain, over $100 million in self-backed capital, and live infrastructure purpose-built for privacy-preserving AI computation. Its 17-stage Initial Coin Auction introduces enforced scarcity through daily token burns, shrinking supply by 80% by the final phase while targeting a historic $1.7 billion raise.
For traders prioritizing long-term upside, disciplined tokenomics, and enterprise-grade utility, ZKP crypto’s 600x potential stands out as the best presale crypto of 2026,
Disclaimer: This is a Press Release provided by a third party who is responsible for the content. Please conduct your own research before taking any action based on the content.
TLDR:
- Cardano ADA trades at $0.27 within a critical higher timeframe bullish order block spanning $0.13 to $0.18
- Weekly closes above $0.13 maintain bullish structure; breaks below signal invalidation to $0.0755
- Historical pattern mirrors 2021 setup when ADA rallied 3,400% from similar accumulation zones
- Technical targets project sequential moves to $1.20, $3, $5, and $10 if current support holds firm
Cardano trades at $0.27 after a brutal 93% correction from recent highs, positioning the asset at a crossroads that could determine its entire cycle trajectory.
Technical analysis reveals a higher timeframe bullish order block between $0.18 and $0.13, where price action now consolidates.
The $0.13 level has emerged as the single most critical support, with analysts suggesting its defense or breach could unlock vastly different outcomes for ADA holders.
Critical Support Zone Holds Multi-Cycle Significance
The current price structure shows ADA testing support levels that haven’t been relevant since early accumulation phases.
After dropping 78% from the $1 local high reached six months ago, the asset now rests on multi-year support above $0.24.
This consolidation zone represents more than temporary support—it marks the battleground where cycle direction gets determined.
Crypto analyst Patel’s recent assessment emphasizes the importance of the $0.13 to $0.18 range as a higher timeframe bullish order block.
This technical zone has absorbed selling pressure while maintaining structural integrity. The key observation centers on weekly closes rather than intraday wicks, suggesting institutional participants are defending this range on meaningful timeframes.
Historical context adds weight to the current setup. During the 2021 bull run, ADA surged 3,400% to reach its all-time high of $3.10.
The subsequent bear market erased 92.89% of that value through a grinding correction lasting into 2026. Price action now sits within the same type of accumulation zone that preceded the previous explosive rally.
The distinction between a 10x cycle and continued downside rests entirely on the $0.13 threshold. Weekly closes above this level maintain the bullish structure and keep expansion targets in play.
Conversely, a confirmed break below invalidates the accumulation thesis and opens the door to deeper retracement toward the $0.0755 level, which represents the final line for high-risk positions.
Expansion Potential Hinges on Support Defense
The path forward splits into dramatically different scenarios based on how price interacts with current support. Bulls defending the $0.18 to $0.13 zone position ADA for what analysts describe as the last accumulation opportunity before parabolic movement.
The technical framework projects sequential targets that extend well beyond previous all-time highs if the base holds.
Immediate resistance appears at $0.4374, identified as the reclaim zone requiring confirmation. Breaking this level would shift momentum and validate that accumulation has concluded.
Beyond that point, the technical roadmap outlines targets at $1.20, $3, $5, and ultimately $10 during a full bull market expansion phase. These projections assume the current support structure remains intact through weekly timeframes.
The magnitude of potential upside reflects patterns observed in previous cycles. Cardano’s 2021 performance demonstrated the explosive potential when accumulation zones break into expansion phases.
The current compression from $1 down to $0.27 has created similar conditions—extended consolidation that historically precedes major directional moves.
Risk management parameters are unusually clear in this setup. The $0.13 weekly close functions as an unambiguous invalidation point for the bullish thesis. Traders can structure positions within the order block while maintaining defined exit strategies.
The asymmetric setup offers compelling upside if support holds, with downside risk clearly mapped to specific price levels that would trigger structural breakdown and force reassessment of cycle expectations.
Social media mentions of crypto “crash” spiked when Bitcoin fell to $60,000 on February 5, causing an immediate price rebound according to Santiment data.
Summary
- Santiment data shows “crash” mentions spiked as Bitcoin hit $60K on Feb. 5.
- BTC rebounded 13% to $67K as panic selling marked a local bottom.
- Arthur Hayes links the selloff to IBIT structured product hedging, not fundamentals.
The sentiment analytics platform found that when traders declare a crash has happened rather than simply observing a dip, prices typically bottom and reverse course.
Bitcoin (BTC) recovered 13% from the $60,000 low to reach $67,000 today. However, mainstream media continued amplifying crash narratives after the rebound had already occurred.
Santiment noted this lag allows key stakeholders to buy from panicked retail investors who sell at losses based on delayed coverage.
BitMEX co-founder Arthur Hayes attributed the selloff to dealer hedging tied to iShares Bitcoin Trust structured products rather than organic selling pressure.
Crypto crash mentions function as reliable bottom indicators
Santiment data showed multiple high-frequency spikes in “dip” mentions across social media during January, with January 26 producing a cluster of observations about falling crypto prices.
These mentions serve as bottom indicators but do not generate the severe panic associated with crash declarations.
“Dip” references typically happen when prices decline enough to warrant comment without causing mass liquidations.
“Crash” mentions emerge when panic selling begins, with traders capitulating and selling bags at losses.
The February 5 drop to $60,000 crossed the threshold where traders shifted from observing a dip to declaring a crash.
Hayes links dump to IBIT structured product hedging
Arthur Hayes posted on X that the Bitcoin selloff likely resulted from dealer hedging related to iShares Bitcoin Trust structured products rather than fundamental selling.
Banks issuing structured notes tied to IBIT create hedging requirements that can cause quick price movements as dealers adjust positions.
Hayes stated he is compiling a complete list of bank-issued notes to map trigger points that could cause sharp price rises or falls. “As the game changes, u must as well,” Hayes wrote.
TLDR:
- Trend Research sold 612,452 ETH valued at $1.26 billion over six days to avoid total liquidation.
- The firm’s leveraged position peaked at $958 million in borrowed stablecoins backed by 601K ETH.
- Only 39,301 ETH worth $80.93 million remains after aggressive deleveraging near $1,800 threshold.
- Market observers suggest yesterday’s flush to $1,800 specifically targeted the firm’s known position.
Trend Research has offloaded 612,452 ETH worth $1.26 billion over six days as its leveraged position collapses. The firm built a risky $958 million stablecoin debt through Aave’s lending protocol at the position’s peak.
Only 39,301 ETH valued at $80.93 million now remains from holdings that once reached 601,000 ETH. The aggressive deleveraging highlights dangers of excessive leverage during volatile market conditions.
Massive Liquidation Risk Forces Emergency Sales
Jack Yi’s Trend Research constructed one of crypto’s largest leveraged positions before market conditions turned unfavorable.
The structure borrowed stablecoins against Ethereum collateral in a loop that amplified exposure. As prices declined, the collateral value dropped while debt obligations remained fixed. This classic leverage trap forced increasingly desperate defensive maneuvers.
MartyParty, a market observer, called out the risky nature of this position on X. He suggested yesterday’s market drop to $1,800 specifically targeted Trend Research’s liquidation threshold.
According to his analysis, this flush aimed to trigger forced covering and position reduction. The observation underscores how large leveraged positions become known targets during market stress.
The firm sent 423,864 ETH worth $830.63 million to exchanges in just 24 hours. This selling pressure contributed to Ethereum’s brutal 40% decline over ten days.
Early February marked when Trend Research began scrambling to reduce exposure. The company sold 33,589 ETH for roughly $79 million and deployed $77.5 million in USDT for debt repayment.
These emergency actions lowered the liquidation threshold from $1,880 to $1,830. However, continued price weakness forced additional sales.
On February 4, another 10,000 ETH went to Binance for liquidation. The cascade of forced selling exemplifies how leverage amplifies losses during downturns.
Collapse Coincides with Deteriorating Market Sentiment
The Trend Research debacle unfolds as broader crypto sentiment reaches multi-year lows. Tom Lee, quoted by CryptosRus, compared current conditions to the post-FTX crash of November 2022.
The “is crypto even viable?” narrative has returned amid the carnage. Ethereum’s 40% drop in ten days shattered confidence across markets.
Lee noted that Ethereum has survived seven drawdowns exceeding 60% over eight years. Each instance produced V-shaped recoveries according to historical data.
Yet the Trend Research collapse adds another layer of concern for market participants. Large leveraged positions unwinding create additional downward pressure that extends declines.
The risky bet by Trend Research now serves as a cautionary tale. Building nearly $1 billion in stablecoin debt against volatile collateral proved catastrophic.
The position quintupled downside risk through leverage mechanics. When Ethereum fell, the spiral became self-reinforcing and unavoidable.
Market observers debate whether this forced selling represents a capitulation event. The combination of extreme negative sentiment and leverage flushing sometimes marks bottoms.
However, $80 million in remaining collateral suggests more selling could occur. Additional declines might trigger final liquidation of Trend Research’s position.
The collapse demonstrates why excessive leverage remains dangerous regardless of conviction in an asset’s long-term prospects.
We are moving toward an economic system in which software and devices transact with one another without human involvement.
Instead of simply executing transactions, machines will be able to make decisions, coordinate with each other and purchase whatever they need in real time. Sensors and satellites will sell data streams by the second. Factories will price power purchases in real-time based on supply and demand. Supply chains could even become completely autonomous — reordering materials, booking transport, paying customs fees and rerouting shipments without any human involvement.
But such an economy cannot be built on large infrequent payments. It needs to run on billions of tiny, continuous transactions, executed autonomously at machine speed. Just as electricity pricing enabled mass production, micro-transactions and machine-to-machine (M2M) payments will make full automation economically viable.
And if continuous M2M payments are the new electricity, then blockchains — the rails upon which these microtransactions will occur — must be seen as the new power grid. They’re a critical piece of infrastructure that unlocks new business models, new technologies and ultimately, this new machine economy.
How will these innovations develop? The electrical revolution has plenty of lessons to teach.
A new revolution
Before electrification, power was local, manual, inconsistent and expensive. Factories relied on steam engines or water wheels, which constrained where production could happen and how it could scale. Power was something you built into each operation.
Electricity changed that. Once power became standardized and always available, it stopped being a feature and became the substrate of modern industry.
Payments today still resemble the pre-electric era of power. They are episodic, usually processed in batches, and heavily mediated by humans and institutions. Even digital payments involve discrete events such as invoices, settlements, reconciliations or billing cycles.
But M2M payments (autonomous financial transactions between connected devices), when combined with micro-transactions (worth a few cents), turn value exchange into something ambient and infrastructure-like. Instead of stopping to pay, machines can simply operate continuously, exchanging value as they consume resources or provide services.
Tech leaders have discussed microtransactions since the early days of the Internet, but it was impossible to realize that vision with the current banking system. Now, blockchain technology enables sending value across the world instantly and at almost no cost. The crypto sector’s infrastructure is fundamental for the birth of continuous M2M payments.
And just as electricity enabled the creation of computers and the Internet, M2M payments and micro-transactions will allow a completely new economy to flourish.
How electricity changed the world
The continuous power provided by electricity enabled automation. Mass production did not happen because factories hired more workers, but because machines could run constantly and relatively independently.
Today’s machines are technically autonomous but economically constrained. An AI agent can make decisions, route traffic, or optimize logistics, but it cannot pay for compute on the fly. Economic friction forces human intervention in systems that are otherwise independent. But M2M payments, combined with micro-transactions, will provide continuous economic power in the same way electricity provides continuous mechanical power.
Also, electricity unlocked industries that simply could not exist before it. M2M payments will have the same property, providing economic infrastructure for industries that cannot function without fine-grained, real-time payments.
What does that look like? We could have autonomous supply chains, in which machines coordinate purchases and logistics continuously. Or we could see the emergence of AI services with pricing models that reflect milliseconds of inference time. Global data markets could depend on pay-per-byte access. Infrastructure itself — from roads to charging stations — could continuously and automatically price access.
It’s worth noting that shifting to usage-based pricing also transformed electricity’s business models. Paying per kilowatt-hour allowed firms to scale without renegotiating contracts or investing in fixed capacity. You paid for what you used when you used it. M2M payments will provide the same flexibility to 21st-century businesses.
Lessons from the electrical revolution
At the beginning of electrification, the focus was mostly on developing generators. However, that wasn’t the most important technological innovation. What mattered was transmission. Only once electricity could be delivered everywhere, cheaply and predictably, did it reshape industry and society.
The same lesson applies to M2M payments. The blockchain rails on which the payments will occur matter way more than the specific M2M payment application (like Coinbase’s x402 protocol) being used. The priority should therefore be to build the best blockchains possible — chains with near-zero fees, very low latency, and predictable performance. In other words, M2M payments hit the same frictions as ordinary stablecoin payments: they need the underlying infrastructure to be tip-top if they want to function properly.
Moreover, the blockchains used for machine payments need to be perceived as neutral infrastructure. They must be interoperable across vendors, jurisdictions and machines. After all, machines cannot negotiate bespoke payment systems any more than appliances can negotiate voltage standards. That means decentralization may play an important role in the growth of the machine economy. In that case, public blockchains could have the advantage over private alternatives.
If M2M payment rails achieve this neutrality, they become the coordination layer of autonomous systems, just as electricity is the coordination layer of physical power. At that point, innovation can safely shift to building entirely new machine-driven industries.
The machine economy will arrive when machines gain the ability to transact continuously, autonomously, and invisibly thanks to the power of blockchain. M2M payments are not just a feature of that future. They are its electricity.
Bitcoin has entered a highly sensitive phase after an aggressive downside continuation. The recent sell-off has pushed it into a historically reactive demand region of $60K, while broader risk sentiment remains fragile. The market is approaching a juncture where technical structure, higher-timeframe demand, and on-chain liquidity dynamics converge, making the coming sessions critical for short- to mid-term direction.
Bitcoin Price Analysis: The Daily Chart
On the daily timeframe, Bitcoin has decisively broken below its recent structure and continued to respect the descending channel, while the rejection from the middle boundary of $75K confirms that sellers remain firmly in control. The most important development is the impulsive breakdown toward the lower boundary of the channel, where the asset is now testing a major demand zone at the $60K price region that previously acted as a strong buyers’ base earlier in the cycle.
This demand area, located at the $60K region, is structurally significant as it represents the last major consolidation before the previous impulsive expansion. While prior price action on the chart confirms this zone’s historical relevance, the current interaction is far more aggressive, suggesting that any bullish reaction from this region would likely begin as a corrective bounce rather than an immediate trend reversal.
As long as Bitcoin remains below the descending channel resistance and the 100- and 200-day moving averages, the daily structure remains decisively bearish, with downside continuation still a valid risk if demand fails to absorb selling pressure.
BTC/USDT 4-Hour Chart
Zooming into the 4-hour timeframe, the bearish structure becomes even clearer. The most recent move shows a sharp sell-side expansion into the current demand zone at $60K psychological support, followed by a minor reactive bounce, which so far lacks strong follow-through.
From a short-term perspective, the key level to monitor is the nearest supply zone overhead at the $75K, formed after the last impulsive breakdown. Any corrective rebound is likely to face selling pressure as the price approaches this area, especially if volume and momentum remain weak.
As long as Bitcoin fails to reclaim and hold above this supply region, rebounds should be treated as pullbacks within a broader bearish trend rather than confirmation of a trend shift. A failure to hold the current demand zone would expose the price to a deeper downside extension toward the channel’s lower boundary of $55K.
Sentiment Analysis
The liquidation heatmap provides valuable context for the recent price behavior. The one-year BTC/USDT liquidation heatmap shows a dense liquidity pocket concentrated around and slightly below the $60K–$65K region, which aligns closely with the current price area. This clustering of liquidity suggests that this zone has been a magnet for price, driven by forced liquidations of over-leveraged long positions during the recent sell-off.
Notably, as price approaches this region, liquidation intensity declines relative to current levels, indicating that a substantial portion of downside leverage has already been unwound. This dynamic increases the probability of short-term stabilization or a reactive bounce, particularly if aggressive sellers begin to lose momentum.
However, the absence of significant liquidation clusters above current price levels implies that upside liquidity is limited in the short term, reinforcing the idea that any rebound is more likely to be corrective rather than trend-changing.
Overall, while the broader structure remains bearish, the convergence of strong historical demand and reduced downside liquidation pressure suggests that Bitcoin may attempt a relief move or consolidation phase from this zone.
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TLDR:
- Dealer hedging from BlackRock IBIT structured notes amplified Bitcoin price swings at key triggers.
- Structured products with knock-ins, auto-callables, and buffers force automatic BTC market flows.
- Mapping issuance and barrier levels helps traders anticipate short-term Bitcoin price movements.
- Bitcoin volatility driven by flows often occurs independently of broader market sentiment shifts.
BlackRock IBIT Bitcoin crash is drawing attention as Arthur Hayes connects dealer hedging and structured notes to BTC volatility. Traders face flows driven by automated mechanisms, not sentiment.
Bitcoin is trading at $69,324.50, up 0.86% over the past 24 hours, supported by strong trading volume of $94.1 billion. Despite the short-term rebound, BTC remains down 16.56% over the past seven days, reflecting elevated volatility.
Recent price action shows how short-term gains can occur even as broader pressure persists, with market flows and positioning continuing to influence Bitcoin’s near-term direction.
Dealer Hedging Drives Bitcoin Volatility
Structured products tied to BlackRock’s IBIT create complex hedging dynamics. Dealers sell these notes to clients and hedge the embedded options using BTC spot or futures.
As positions grow, their rebalancing can directly influence prices. These notes often include auto-callables, knock-ins, and downside buffers.
As BTC approaches key barriers, dealers must act. They buy when prices rise and sell when prices fall. This creates mechanical pressure that can resemble sudden market moves.
Arthur Hayes explained that these flows are not directional bets. Instead, they are systematic hedging responses.
For example, when a Morgan Stanley note struck near $105,000, its 75% knock-in at $78,700 forced the dealer to sell once BTC fell below that level.
In quiet markets, these actions are subtle. However, when positions are crowded, they can dominate price movements.
As BTC crosses trigger points, flows accelerate automatically, affecting volatility clusters and market perception.
Such mechanisms also extend to correlated assets. Precious metals like silver and gold experienced heightened volatility during the Bitcoin sell-off.
Silver fell more than 18%, and MSTR stock declined as bearish sentiment spread. Transitioning from calm to stressed conditions amplifies these effects further.
Mapping Trigger Points and Market Flows
Hayes is mapping bank-issued notes to identify key trigger zones. Each note contains invisible barriers that influence dealer hedges.
Understanding these levels is now essential for traders seeking to anticipate flow-driven price swings.
CryptoQuant analysts confirmed that ETFs, including BlackRock IBIT, have reduced positions accumulated last year.
This steady selling creates pressure independent of market sentiment. Therefore, price moves may reflect hedging mechanics rather than investor pessimism.
Community discussions on X support Hayes’ observations. Traders note that auto-call and knock-in levels create predictable flow points.
These mechanical triggers can lead to accelerated selling or buying, often before public narratives emerge.
Moreover, the recent BTC rebound to $70,000 highlights how flows can reverse. Dealers adjust as triggers reset, showing how structured product mechanics shape short-term volatility.
Hayes emphasizes that traders must adapt strategies according to issuance, positioning, and barrier geometry.
Overall, the BlackRock IBIT Bitcoin crash illustrates a shift. BTC is no longer influenced solely by macro trends or sentiment. Instead, structured product flows and hedging dynamics now play a critical role in price movements.
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