Pakistan has reiterated plans to issue a yuan-denominated “Panda bond” as it seeks to shore up its economy. This move comes amid inflationary and geopolitical pressures triggered by Trump’s war on Iran. The longer-term strategy is to reduce Pakistan’s reliance on the dollar. Meanwhile, Pakistan aims to raise funds through Chinese capital markets.

These plans, announced by Pakistan’s finance minister, Muhammad Aurangzeb, are expected to take effect next week:

God willing, next week you will hear good news that for the first time, we will be accessing Chinese capital markets through Panda bond.

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Pakistan’s initial $250 million Panda bond, backed by the Asian Development Bank and the Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank, is part of a $1 billion package.

The dual shock of soaring inflation and collapsing remittance incomes has put Pakistan’s economy in a squeeze, alongside others across Asia. They’re reeling as a direct consequence of disruptions to the Strait of Hormuz, cutting off 20% of the world’s oil and gas supplies.

In South Asia, inflation is set to rise from 2.9% in 2025 to 5.0% in 2026, driven by higher food and energy prices.

Abandoned by the UAE

Pakistan was recently also rocked by the UAE’s refusal to renew a $3.5 billion financial facility, a move viewed by Islamabad as a betrayal. Saudi Arabia stepped in with $3 billion in additional support to help bridge the multi-billion-dollar gap in the country’s finances.

According to the FT, the UAE’s decision follows growing frustration with Pakistan’s deepening ties with Saudi Arabia and what it considers Pakistan’s meek response to Iranian attacks on the Gulf.

Recent UAE developments, including the US dollar swap request, exit from OPEC, and expulsion of 15,000 Pakistani Shias, can be read as interlocking signs of the Gulf state’s increased subservience to the US/Israel axis.

Michael Kugelman of the Atlantic Council, a pro-war group, in an interview with DW, said that Pakistan’s role as a mediator was to protect itself because of its vulnerability. The country depends heavily on Gulf remittances from overseas workers, and energy imports from the Middle East.

Pakistan’s need to protect its fiscal position is shaped in large part by the need for cash in a cash-strapped, politically turbulent region.

By contrast, the US interests, which Kugelman presumably thinks are altruistic, are applauded… American exceptionalism and all.

What he presents as opportunistic behaviour by Pakistan is, in fact, a question of survival. After all, his institution’s backers in Washington and Tel Aviv are the ones who started the war. So, are countries in the Global South expected to absorb these consequences without protest? Or should they do so without mitigation?

The curse of IMF loans

Pakistan has received $4.8 billion from the International Monetary Fund so far. These funds were received under two separate programmes.

The first is the Extended Fund Facility, a 37 month arrangement approved on September 25, 2024. This is the main bailout program. In addition, the second is the Resilience and Sustainability Facility. It is a 28-month arrangement approved on May 9, 2025. It focuses on climate and disaster resilience.

IMF is a Western neoliberal international finance institution that offers the poorer nations no viable exit from the death spiral of debt.

According to the Tricontinental Institute:

 the IMF not only engineers austerity-driven debt crises, but its policies are designed to ensure and manage a permanent debt crisis, not to erase debt.

Ali Hasanain, a professor at the Lahore University of Management Sciences, explained on Al Jazeera that Pakistan entered the Iran war crisis with virtually “no economic cushion”. This was because it had already been subjected to a long-standing IMF-managed austerity programme.

As a result, the government was unable to shield ordinary people from rising energy prices. Consequently, it was forced to pass most of the inflation directly onto consumers.

The US-Israeli war on Iran has impacted fiscally vulnerable nations like Pakistan. Hence, its entry into the Chinese capital market through the Panda bond is a much-needed lifeline.

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By The Canary

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Members of Knesset (MKs) in Israel have passed a bill establishing a so-called ‘special tribunal’ for Palestinians detained on 7 October 2023.

The tribunal is designed to strip fair trial rights and has the power to impose death penalties on detainees.

The bill passed without a single dissenting vote. A total of 27 MKs in Israel’s parliament did not vote.

Israel MKs voted 93-0 in favour of the bill

Human rights groups in Israel and occupied Palestine say the bill removes any legal impediments to executing prisoners.

Muna Haddad, a lawyer with The Legal Center for Arab Minority Rights in Israel (Adalah), told Al Jazeera that the bill is designed to make it easy to secure the mass conviction of Palestinians.

She said:

The bill explicitly permits mass trials that deviate from standard rules of evidence, including broad judicial discretion to admit evidence obtained under coercive conditions that may amount to torture or ill-treatment.

This constitutes a severe violation of fair trial guarantees that falls well short of international law requirements.

The provisions governing public hearings…violate the presumption of innocence, the right to a fair trial, and the right to dignity. The framework effectively treats indictment as a finding of guilt, before any judicial examination has begun.

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Show trials

In a move designed to humiliate those seized, the trials will be publicly broadcast, including sentencing.

Israel murdered hundreds of its own citizens on 7 October 2023 under the ‘Hannibal directive’ in repeated attacks from early morning to late at night. Israel’s then-defence minister Yo’av Gallant told a TV interviewer that he wished the IOF had killed more.

At least 200 people were detained after the raid on ‘suspicion’ of involvement, but no evidence has ever been presented against them.

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By Skwawkbox

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In his speech to Equity’s annual conference on Sunday 10 May, general secretary Paul W Fleming called for prime minister Keir Starmer:

to set out a timetable in which he resigns and is replaced.

He also said that the union “opposes” Reform:

opposes giving them a platform, and opposes what they threaten to do to our movement and trade union.

But Fleming added that among Reform voters are:

people who are actually frustrated about the economic and social situation in which we find ourselves… who are desperately grabbing around for a different answer.

And he said that for this:

there is one person who is disproportionately to blame: not Nigel Farage, but Keir Starmer.

Equity’s annual conference took place this year in the Durham Miners’ Hall from 9-11 May.

Elsewhere, the general secretary said that there is currently a:

real prospect of industrial action on the West End costing the bosses hundreds of thousands of pounds a day.

This was referring to the ongoing indicative ballot of performers and stage management working in London’s world-famous theatres who are threatening to take strike action for fairer pay, terms and conditions.

He also said that the union had:

Never had as many [emails] as in response to our loss at Spotlight [of which people were] proud that this is a union that is standing up for them.

In September last year, the High Court ruled in favour of Spotlight, dismissing Equity’s case that the casting directory’s fees should be regulated. The union’s appeal is set to go ahead in November this year.

The section of Fleming’s speech regarding Starmer and Reform in full:

It would be remiss of me after the last week to not mention potentially the biggest threat to our union, to our industry, and to any union. And that is the rise of the far right. And I don’t want to speak euphemistically.

The rise of the far right includes Reform. Reform is the far right. Not every Reform voter. Not every Reform council candidate. But the leadership and direction and policies of that party are those of the far right.

And I have no shame in saying so, and I have no shame in saying that this union opposes them, opposes giving them a platform, and opposes what they threaten to do to our movement and trade union.

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But as we find amongst Reform voters – and indeed some Reform councillors – converts to our way of thinking, people who are actually frustrated about the economic and social situation in which we find ourselves, which has seen wage stagnation across our economy, that has seen austerity in our communities, who are desperately grabbing around for a different answer, there is one person who is disproportionately to blame: not Nigel Farage, but Keir Starmer.

And this union should have no hesitation in calling for the prime minister to set out a timetable in which he resigns and is replaced.

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By The Canary

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Jordan Devlin was one of six ‘Filton 24’ activists retried by the Starmer regime for damaging an Israeli weapons factory.

Devlin and Zoe Rogers were acquitted. Their four comrades were convicted after the trial judge forbade any mention of the jury’s legal right to acquit on conscience.

The government wants those four — Samuel Corner, Charlotte Head, Leona Kamio and Fatema Rajwani — sentenced as terrorists. They were convicted of criminal damage, not of any terror offence.

Devlin is asking well-wishers to attend their sentencing on 12 June at Woolwich Crown Court to show support for the Filton 24.

Those who care about human rights and what’s left of justice in the UK should be there, if they can.

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Mathys Tel produced the kind of moment that makes managers grin and then grind their teeth in frustration, as he curled superb finish into the top corner to put Spurs ahead early in the second half. The goal looked like it might settle a nervy night at the Tottenham Hotspur Stadium.

However, twenty minutes later, the same player attempted an overhead kick defensive clearance which struck Ethan Ampadu. After a VAR review, Leeds were awarded a penalty that Dominic Calvert-Lewin converted to level the game.

Tottenham’s attacking intent was clear: they probed, they recycled possession, and they created some openings. But, the match underlined a recurring problem this season. Few moments of quality are too often followed by lapses in concentration. That oscillation between brilliance and error has left Spurs in a precarious position with only two games to go.

Spurs last minute drama

The penalty decision was the games fulcrum, referee Jarred Gillett initially waved played on, but a lengthy VAR check and a pitchside monitor review overturned that call. The sequence summed up modern football’s reliance on replay technology, a single frame can change the course of a relegation battle.

There was more drama, in a chaotic 13 minutes of added time, Sean Longstaff thought he had a late winner only for Spurs goalkeeper Antonin Kinsky produce a spectacular save, pushing the effort onto the crossbar. That stop was arguably the difference between a home defeat and a point that keeps Tottenham marginally above the drop zone.

Kinsky’s was the standout player for Spurs; he made several important saves and was later named player of the match, a rare positive in a game where Spurs form at home remains a concern. The club have now won just once in their last ten matches at the Tottenham Hotspur Stadium, a run that has amplified pressure on Roberto De Zerbi and his players as the season reaches its climax.

De Zerbi’s side showed fight and flashes of the tactical shape he’s trying to instil, but the manager will be frustrated by the inability to close out a match they controlled for long periods. He was forced to make attacking substitutions late on, including bringing on James Maddison, but even those changes couldn’t force the decisive breakthrough.

Leeds are safe

For Leeds, the draw was a valuable point and a sign of composure and maturity. They defended with discipline, stayed compact when needed, and took their chance from the spot. Crucially, Leeds top flight status for next season was already secured after West Ham’s defeat to Arsenal, meaning they could play with less pressure and more clarity in north London. That freedom showed in their organisation and willingness to see out the result.

Leeds’ manager will take encouragement from the way his team handled the occasion, the Whites were not there to make up the numbers, they came with a plan and executed it well enough to leave Spurs with a solid point.

Spurs future uncertain

The draw leaves Tottenham two points clear of the relegation zone with two games remaining, but the margin is fragile. West Ham sit just behind and can leapfrog Spurs if they beat Newcastle, a result that would dramatically reshape the final week of the season.

Spurs now head to Chelsea on May 19 before a final-day home fixture against Everton, West Ham’s remaining fixtures include a showdown with Leeds. The permutations are simple: any slip and Spurs could be dragged into a last-day scrap for survival.

This is not the script Spurs expected when the season began. Instead of a comfortable finish, they face a tense run-in where every decision, substitution, and VAR check carries outsized weight. De Zerbi has repeatedly asked for calm and consistency. What he will get is a fortnight of high stakes football where margins will be measured in inches and seconds.

Final word

A night of mixed emotions for Tottenham, a moment of individual brilliance, a costly error, and a goalkeeper who kept them alive. For Leeds, a tidy away point and the luxury of safety already secured, the relegation picture has tilted again, not dramatically, but enough to ensure the final two fixtures will be watched with the kind of intensity usually reserved for cup finals.

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By Faz Ali

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Wanted Israeli war criminal Benjamin Netanyahu has been given yet another soft-soap interview by Zionist-run CBS. In it, Netanyahu railed about the US public’s supposed hate for Israel but then turned, ‘panicked’, to first beg and then try to con China into ending its support for Iran.

China has supplied Iran with high-grade satellite intel on the positions of US and Israeli aggressors. It has reportedly agreed the sale of new, modern warplanes, is buying Iranian oil, and has moved its ships into position to impede illegal US operations.

And that support is proving highly effective. Iran is reported to have damaged and forced down two more of the US and Israel’s advanced F-35 strike aircraft, and three US warships. Hence, presumably, Netanyahu’s desperation.

Feeble

And desperate it was. The genocidaire tried to claim that China’s access to energy resources would be more secure with Iran defeated and the US/Israel in charge of the region.

But it’s an open secret admitted even by alleged western proxies that China, and strangling its supply of resources, is the ultimate target of the US-Israel war of aggression on Iran.

It was a feeble display from the usually arrogant criminal:

Massive panic in Tel Aviv. Major Garrett confirms China is actively providing highly advanced military support to Iran.

Benjamin Netanyahu is visibly terrified, desperately begging Beijing to stop arming Tehran.

Zionist regime realizes their regional dominance is collapsing. pic.twitter.com/SXDqVUCsYv

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— Furkan Gözükara (@FurkanGozukara) May 10, 2026

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By Skwawkbox

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With rumours of a leadership challenge swirling, YouGov polling demonstrating that Labour-right darling Wes Streeting is somehow an even worse option than Keir Starmer has resurfaced on social media.

The widely reposted infographic was highlighted by Stats for Lefties on May 11. It shows a Streeting-led Labour receiving just 5 seats in the 2029 general election, based on polling from 28 January 2026:

POLL | #GE2029 with Streeting as PM:

Ref: 32% (+17)
Grn: 21% (+14)
Con: 15% (-9)
Lab: 15% (-20)
Lib: 11% (-2)

{ Seats }
Ref: 373 (+368)
Grn: 101 (+97)
Lib: 72 (-)
SNP: 47 (+38)
Con: 17 (-104)
Plaid: 10 (+6)
Lab: 5 (-406)

Poll: @YouGov, 28 Jan 2026 pic.twitter.com/13HmCGvTCx

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— Stats for Lefties (@LeftieStats) May 11, 2026

Streeting somehow worse than Starmer

Streeting’s hypothetical Labour Party would draw just 15% of the vote share. Meanwhile, Reform would take a sweeping majority, with the Greens in second. That being said, the Lib Dems’ vote share would barely change, because even the centrists don’t care for poor Wesley.

Because the health secretary has all of the political guile of a goldfish, the fact that he’s got his eyes on Starmer’s job is one of Westminster’s most poorly kept secrets:

Senior Labour source: “Wes has spent six months doing everything he could to bring down the Labour government while publicly denying it. Now everyone can see him for what he is: a self interested lizard.” https://t.co/KXG8f13byr

— Kevin Schofield (@KevinASchofield) May 11, 2026

As is tradition at the Canary, I turn now to the immortal words of Dawn Foster:

Wes Streeting is THE absolute worst. An irredeemable lickspittle cunt. pic.twitter.com/1sA3mSsoAw

— Jason Reid (@JasonReidx) July 12, 2024

Of course, we’re not just quoting that idly – the prick is deep in the pocket of private healthcare (whilst also eroding the NHS), proposed segregating trans people, and takes any chance he can to bash striking doctors. A “right wing lickspittle cunt” indeed.

But then, we would say that. So, let’s see what the general public thinks of the guy – maybe opinions have gone up since the January polls. Here’s some solid data from YouGov again:

Around 66% of the general public have actually heard of Streeting. Meanwhile, the majority of the people who have heard of him don’t like him. I particularly love that the shapes of the ‘know of him’ and ‘dislike him’ lines are almost identical.

‘It’s time for Wes!’

Obviously, social media had a field day with the idea of Streeting as the Labour right’s best hope.

The Labour Right are still yet to realise how toxic Streeting is to voters. He’d genuinely sink Labour to under 10% in the polls. https://t.co/Bwq1lbmHeG

— Hugo Papé (@HugoPap2) May 11, 2026

He’d definitely finish what Starmer started:

I said this the other day but it genuinely speaks volumes to how out of touch with reality the Labour Party is that they would even entertain the possibility of replacing Keir Starmer with Wes Streeting.

It would be an extinction-inducing decision. https://t.co/2HoEroZV87

— thelefttake (@thelefttake) May 11, 2026

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Do we think Wes Streeting would be ruinous for the country? Yes. Do we think he’d be ruinous for the NHS? Also yes. Do we want him to spend even more time behind a microphone? God no.

I never thought I’d say it, but Starmer is definitely the better option here. That said, if it was only the modern Labour Party that Streeting’s leadership would burn to the ground, I’d be singing a very different tune:

It’s time for Wes! https://t.co/TGB4KdnYkS pic.twitter.com/WsFLGmQwkM

— Northern Greens (@VoteGreenNorth) May 11, 2026

‘A stronger version of Labour’

In his belly-flop of a speech yesterday, 11 May, Keir Starmer mused that:

This is nothing less than a battle for the soul of our nation. And I want to be crystal clear about how we will win it. Because we cannot win as a weaker version of Reform or the Greens, we can only win as a stronger version of Labour, a mainstream party of power, not protest.

I put it to you that Wes Streeting is the absolute apex example of the current Labour Party. I genuinely don’t think the even the Tony Blair Institute and Labour Together could conjure up a more lackluster right-wing shill if they designed him in a fucking lab.

And, as the YouGov polling shows, that “stronger version” of new-new-Labour most definitely could not win against Reform and the Greens. Hell, even with the whole UK to aim at, Streeting’s Labour couldn’t even beat Plaid Cymru.

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By Alex/Rose Cocker

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A UK spy operation in the Russian Baltic enclave of Kaliningrad has generated virtually no press coverage. This sits in stark contrast to Russian sea and air missions anywhere near UK territories, which generate wall-to-wall stories from legacy media.

One of the only outlets reporting the story was UK Defence Journal, a military-adjacent website which mostly churns out government press releases and snippets of parliamentary debates.

The outlet said a UK Rivet Joint surveillance plane flew around Kaliningrad:

conducting a wide racetrack pattern around the Russian exclave, consistent with the UK’s long-running patrols across the Baltic region.

The website added:

These missions have been routine for years and pre-date Russia’s 2022 invasion of Ukraine.

Going off the legacy press, you’d think spy missions were all one way — with Russia poking around UK water and airspace unanswered. The truth is quite different.

Russian enclave spy missions

Kaliningrad is an island of Russian territory sandwiched between Poland and Lithuania. It serves as a vital Russian port on the Baltic sea.

The Royal Air Force operates three RC-135Ws, aka the Rivet Joint spy plane. The aircraft works to:

intercept, characterise and analyse communications, radar and other electronic emissions to provide commanders with actionable intelligence.

And is “heavily used”:

for this and other operational taskings, and although formally designated Airseeker in UK service, it remains almost universally referred to by its Rivet Joint name.

The UK government warned that Russian spy ship Yantar in UK waters in April 2026. There was substantial press coverage as legacy media parroted government press releases:

Defence secretary John Healey has claimed Russian submarines have been spying on UK underwater infrastructure. Healey held a special 9 April press conference to announce a month-long operation against UK underwater pipes and cables had been foiled.

Enter Helsing

The UK announced in November 2025 that Palantir-linked AI arms firm Helsing was opening an drone factory in the UK. Helsing were keen to cash in on a military AI boom:

They’ll be making unmanned submersible ‘gliders’. Powered by AI, the SG-1 Fathom will “deliver persistent underwater surveillance, detecting enemy activity to protect our sea lanes and undersea critical national infrastructure”.

Defence secretary John Healey told the BBC at the time:

As we look to defend ourselves, seas and protect our cables, the uncrewed submarines or underwater gliders have the potential for playing a big part in the future,

It allows us to extend the range of how we can detect, how we can deter and if necessary, deal with any aggression that we face.

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In January 2025, the UK military ordered a submarine to dramatically surface near Yantar when it was operating off Cornwall. One expert called it:

“a bit of a flex” – part of an effort to get the Royal Navy to be more assertive.

The UK’s Kaliningrad mission tells a rare story. Surveillance operations are a two-way street. Yet the legacy press don’t report it as such. Maybe that’s something to keep in mind the next time the media simply repeat en masse what the military and government have said…

Featured image via Unsplash / the Canary

By Joe Glenton

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DAYS THE BUDGET IS LATE: 42

ZO, THAT’S IT? For months, Mayor Zohran Mamdani has pressed the case that Albany must raise income and corporate taxes to help plug New York City’s $5.4 billion budget deficit.

So in rolling out an executive budget today that closes the gap without his favored state-level tax hikes, Mamdani made a significant concession, showing he did not, in fact, need the increases from Albany to shore up his spending plan.

When Playbook asked whether that means he’s throwing in the towel on his push for income and corporate tax increases, Mamdani signaled he’s content with the commitments he’s already secured.

“I’ve been very open and honest about my vision, whether it be fast and free buses, or whether it be higher personal income taxes on the wealthiest New Yorkers or the most profitable corporations — this budget is a reflection of that vision in its tax on the rich,” Mamdani said.

Mamdani was referring to the pied-à-terre tax Gov. Kathy Hochul and legislators in Albany have committed to enacting as part of this year’s badly overdue state budget. The tax, which impacts owners of secondary homes in the city worth more than $5 million, is expected to generate $500 million in new annual revenue for the municipal coffers.

That’s a far cry from the $9 billion in fresh revenue the democratic socialist said his income and corporate tax increases would annually produce during last year’s mayoral race.

Still, Mamdani offered nothing but praise for Hochul when asked today whether he’s a little bit disappointed that she hasn’t conceded any ground on those fronts. “I see this as a win,” he said at City Hall. “And I do want to thank Gov. Hochul for her partnership. It is a partnership that reflects a commitment to the long-term health and vitality for the city.”

A close Mamdani supporter echoed his sentiment — but added a caveat.

“What we heard from the mayor today signals that between the governor and New York City, the deal is done and they have reached the goals that they are going to accomplish this year,” Jasmine Gripper, director of the New York Working Families Party, told Playbook. “But nonetheless, the fight doesn’t die.”

Gripper’s comment opens the door to 2027, when Mamdani may have a better shot at convincing Hochul to push through his preferred tax hikes.

Locked in a reelection race against Republican Bruce Blakeman, Hochul has been consistently reluctant to support tax increases this year. As long as she’s reelected to a second full term in November, the governor may be more inclined to back tax hikes in 2027, when the pressures of a competitive reelection contest aren’t looming.

A Hochul spokesperson declined to comment on 2027 considerations. And a spokesperson for Mamdani didn’t comment on what his 2027 plans are vis-à-vis tax priorities in Albany.

Mamdani’s executive budget this year indicates he will be in dire need of new revenue streams from Albany next year.

The budget gap the city faces for fiscal year 2028 stands at over $7 billion, budget documents released today show. The gap for fiscal year 2029 is even larger, topping $9 billion, according to the new projections.

Without additional intervention from the state next year, closing such exorbitant outyear gaps could prove difficult for the young democratic socialist — unless he shifts gears to further trim spending.

Gustavo Gordillo, a co-chair of the New York City chapter of the Democratic Socialists of America, made clear his group will continue pressuring Hochul to get behind higher taxes on the wealthy to stave off future municipal service cuts.

“Closing the deficit was challenging. We did it. That’s an actual victory showing that socialists can govern,” Gordillo said. “But to deliver the full affordability agenda we will need a governor who stands with working New Yorkers instead of billionaire donors to make the rich pay what they owe.” — Chris Sommerfeldt and Joe Anuta

From the Capitol

BLAKEMAN WINS CASE ON MATCHING FUNDS: An Albany County judge has blocked an attempt from Democrats to deny GOP gubernatorial candidate Bruce Blakeman access to $3.5 million in campaign matching funds.

Blakeman was booted from the program in March after the Democratic majority on the Public Campaign Finance Board concluded he never filled out a nonexistent form identifying his running mate. Justice Denise Hartman concluded today that maneuver was “arbitrary and capricious.”

“Blakeman registered his campaign and certified compliance with the Program, attended mandatory training, publicly identified their joint-ticket, and submitted certified amended filings 11 days before the filing deadline,” Hartman wrote. “Yet he received no notice that the PCFB considered the submissions deficient until after the filing deadline had lapsed.”

Democrats on the board said “an appeal is likely.”

Read more from POLITICO Pro’s Bill Mahoney. 

UNIONS BACK PRISON REFORM: A dozen unions will soon announce their support for a pair of penal reform bills that advocates hope will be on the agenda for this year’s brief post-budget session.

Labor organizations including 1199SEIU, District Council 37 and the New York State Nurses Association are backing the Earned Time Act, which would increase options for early release credits for participation in job training programs, and the Second Look Act, which would let inmates petition for early release after a decade.

“New York is facing an ongoing labor shortage that is slowing economic growth and straining industries across the state,” the unions wrote in a letter to state leaders. “Hundreds of thousands of jobs remain unfilled, even as thousands of New Yorkers are locked out of the workforce due to long prison sentences and limited access to programs that would allow them to earn release.”

Lawmakers are facing the likelihood they’ll have only two weeks to deal with post-budget issues before adjourning for the summer. But the Center for Community Alternatives’ Katie Schaffer was optimistic these measures might have some momentum, noting that state Sen. Jeremy Zellner’s decision today to cosponsor the Second Look Act means it’s now supported by a majority of his chamber. — Bill Mahoney

STRIKING A DEAL — The Metropolitan Transportation Authority’s Long Island Rail Road and five unions threatening to strike are only at odds over the fourth year of a three-year contract.

The last contract expired three years ago. The unions and the MTA have already reached a deal on the retroactive pay for those years, but remain apart on the fourth year, which begins this summer, according to people familiar with the sensitive negotiations on both sides of the table.

In public, the union’s last offer was a 5 percent pay increase, while the MTA’s was about 3 percent.

At one point, the MTA looked for changes to work rules, which critics of the unions say are arcane and overly generous. Now, the MTA has moved on to looking for one-time lump sum payments as an alternative to salary increases in the fourth year. The advantage to the MTA is that one-time payments aren’t reoccurring, but the unions want a built-in pay increase and cite ongoing inflation.

The unions said they are continuing to prepare for a strike and that no “contract talks” were scheduled today, though a formal bargaining session is scheduled for tomorrow.

“We are having discussions today,” MTA spokesperson John McCarthy told POLITICO today. — Ry Rivard

SEEKING A ZYN WIN: Some form of a tax on nicotine pouch products like Zyn is expected to be included in a final state budget deal.

A coalition of private sector groups — including The Business Council of New York State — is trying to shape the details.

The business organizations are pushing state lawmakers and Hochul to adopt a 67-cent flat, unit-based tax as an alternative to the original proposal, which would place a 75 percent wholesale tax on the products. The groups wrote in a letter to the governor and top state legislators that their proposal will still prevent those under 21 from accessing the products and curtail an illegal market.

“It is a proven tax structure that keeps adult consumers purchasing through legal, taxed, and regulated channels, minimizes illicit trade, and preserves enforcement safeguards,” they wrote. “Importantly, it also provides stable and reliable revenue without importing the community and youth harms that accompany illegal markets.” — Nick Reisman

GRAND JURY SUBPOENA: NYU Langone received a grand jury subpoena last week requesting six years of information on patients under 18 who received gender-affirming care and the medical staff involved, according to an online disclosure.

Several other unnamed institutions received the subpoena, NYU Langone said in the notice. Under New York’s shield laws, local health care organizations must report subpoenas or requests for information regarding legally protected health activities to the state attorney general’s office.

“We understand that these developments may be concerning to our patients, providers, and others,” the health system wrote in the notice. “Please know that NYU Langone takes the privacy of your protected health information very seriously and we are evaluating our response to the subpoena.”

The subpoena by the U.S. Attorney’s Office in the Northern District of Texas, which was first reported in the newsletter Erin in the Morning, indicates federal prosecutors empaneled a grand jury to weigh potential criminal charges. Federal agencies reportedly subpoenaed NYU Langone and Mount Sinai last year demanding information on care for transgender minors.

NYU Langone shuttered its program for transgender youth earlier this year, citing the current regulatory environment. — Maya Kaufman

FROM CITY HALL

THINKING ABOUT THE UNTHINKABLE — New York City Police Commissioner Jassica Tisch told a ballroom of civic leaders this morning that the city remains a terrorist target, especially this summer, with a series of “major international events, enormous public gatherings and historic commemorations,” including the World Cup and America’s 250th birthday party.

“New York City is not only a global hub, it is a global target,” she said during a breakfast hosted by the Association for a Better New York.

Tisch said that “what begins overseas often finds its way here,” alluding to the war with Iran, the Oct. 7, 2023 attacks in Israel and emerging warfare strategies involving drones. She also mentioned domestic threats and lone actors.

What she didn’t go into is how a terrorist attack could scramble the political picture in New York City and affect the perception of her boss.

“An attack will always be exploited by the Mamdani derangement crowd, but I think a lot of it would depend on where it comes from,” said Richard Flanagan, a professor at the College of Staten Island, who wrote a book on challenges facing mayors.

Maki Haberfeld, a professor at the John Jay College of Criminal Justice, said if an attack comes from a Muslim group or individual inspired by ISIS, “It will be a huge liability for him because of who he is, being the first Muslim mayor of New York City.”

Basil Smikle, a Democratic strategist and political analyst, said Mamdani would be criticized in the same ways he was during his campaign, as young and progressive. And Mamdani, unlike Rudy Giuliani, who was praised after the 9/11 attacks, hasn’t had years in public life building a reputation around law and order. The information and political environment is also different now.

“That is a big difference from 2001 to now. You didn’t have the access to alternative viewpoints in the way you do now,” he said.

Right now, Flanagan sees Mamdani, in part because he kept Tisch on as head of NYPD, as balancing the law-and-order coalition and his own base, which looks for police reforms. “It’s a fine line and he’s walking it,” he said. — Ry Rivard

IN OTHER NEWS

— DYNAMIC DUO: President Donald Trump defended Mamdani on a conservative talk radio show Tuesday, calling him a ‘nice guy,’ but he criticized his proposed second-home tax, warning it could drive the rich out of the city. (POLITICO)

— NOT-SO-NICE SUNSET: The presence of federal immigration enforcement agents in New York City is impacting immigrant-majority neighborhoods like Sunset Park, where nearly 80% of businesses reported a decrease in sales and foot traffic. (Gothamist)

— FEES ON NOTICE: The New York senate is pushing to pass consumer protection bills that go after deceptive business practices, including surveillance pricing and junk fees. (Spectrum News)

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