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3 Major Things That Could Move Crypto Markets This Week

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Here’s How US Funding Certainty Calmed Markets and Lifted Bitcoin


A busy week lies ahead on the United States economic calendar, with labor market and inflation reports due while macroeconomic uncertainty remains elevated.

Crypto markets flatlined over the weekend, as investors licked their wounds following the massive $700 billion rout last week. The following several days could see more volatility with more government shutdown data on the way and a key inflation report.

US President Trump reiterated his 100,000 target for the Dow Jones as US stock futures rose on Monday morning.  Meanwhile, precious metal markets are recovering, with gold reclaiming $5,000 per ounce and silver rising back to $80 per ounce.

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Economic Events Feb. 9 to 13

The latest partial US government shutdown has already affected key data releases.  The delayed December Retail Sales data is due on Monday, shedding light on the state of consumer spending.

This is followed by labor market data in the form of the January Jobs Report on Wednesday and Initial Jobless Claims data on Thursday.

“The most important thing, believe it or not, is the Labor Department’s nonfarm payroll report on Wednesday,” said CNBC’s Jim Cramer. “If that comes in soft, it means the Fed can keep cutting rates, and that’s great news for the stock market itself.”

Another big hitter, January’s CPI Inflation report, is due on Friday. The Consumer Price Index measures the average change over time in the prices paid by consumers for a basket of goods and services.

These labor market and inflation reports are critical in helping investors and Washington understand what is happening in the US economy, and are a key influence on the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy.

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“Rate expectations have been remarkably stable over the last couple of weeks,” said Angelo Kourkafas, senior global investment strategist at Edward Jones, as reported by Reuters.

“We’ll see if any either weakness in the labor market data or any surprising cool-down in inflation accelerates a bit the timeline for when the market thinks the next rate cut may be delivered.”

Crypto Market Outlook

Crypto markets barely moved over the weekend, with total capitalization hovering around $2.45 trillion, its lowest level since November 2024. Bitcoin recovered to reclaim $71,000 following its crash to around $60,000 on Friday, but it remains 44% down from its all-time high and in a bear market.

Ether prices reclaimed $2,100 but couldn’t advance any further. The asset remains deep in bear market territory, down 58% from its August all-time high. The alcoins saw a minor bounce, but most of them are still on the floor after being obliterated in last week’s market crash.

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Crypto World

CFTC Chair Says Agency is Ready to Oversee Entire Crypto Market

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CFTC Chair Says Agency is Ready to Oversee Entire Crypto Market

Michael Selig, US President Donald Trump’s nominee leading the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), said the agency was prepared to oversee the entire $3 trillion crypto industry, with no timeline for Congress to pass a crucial market structure bill.

In a Wednesday statement about his first 100 days as CFTC chair, Selig said that the commission was “ready to take responsibility” for the crypto market and reiterated his claim that it was the sole regulator to oversee prediction markets.

His comments come as the US Senate considers the CLARITY Act, a crypto market structure bill that has been effectively stalled in committee amid discussions over stablecoin yield and other issues.

“The same regulatory clarity being delivered to the crypto industry is being developed for prediction markets, which can serve as powerful tools for information discovery and are regulated by the CFTC under the Commodity Exchange Act,” said Selig.

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Under Selig, who was confirmed by the Senate in December, the CFTC has adopted many policies signaling that the agency would soften its enforcement and regulation of digital assets compared to previous administrations. In March, the agency announced a memorandum of understanding with the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) as part of efforts to coordinate on regulation, including digital assets.

Related: Crypto exchange KuCoin agrees to $500K settlement, ending CFTC case

Although early drafts of the market structure bill suggested the legislation could give the CFTC additional authority to oversee digital assets, the SEC is expected to continue regulating cryptocurrencies it considers to be securities.

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Lawmakers pressing CFTC on insider trading claims over prediction markets

US state authorities and federal lawmakers have been targeting prediction market platforms like Kalshi and Polymarket over alleged violations of gaming laws and claims of politicians using insider information to profit.

While many of the state-level actions continue to be litigated in court, Selig has claimed that the CFTC has “exclusive jurisdiction” over prediction markets and threatened legal action against any challenges to its authority.

In a Tuesday event, CFTC enforcement director David Miller said that the agency’s position was that event contracts on prediction markets were not “gaming” but rather “swaps” that fall under its purview.

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Some lawmakers have also proposed legislation to ban elected officials with insider information from profiting from event contracts after suspicious trades on military actions involving Iran and Venezuela.

Magazine: A newbie’s guide to surviving crypto winter