Crypto firm Galaxy Digital has lowered the odds of the Senate passing its crypto market structure bill before the end of the year, noting that the window for lawmakers to act on the bill is closing. 

“On May 22, we raised our estimate of the probability that the CLARITY Act becomes law in 2026 to 75%, up from the 55% we published the morning of May 14’s Senate Banking markup, Galaxy’s head of research Alex Thorn said in a note on Friday. “We are now lowering that estimate to 60%.”

Thorn said the bill must pass the Senate before a month-long August recess starting in late July, as “after that, the window effectively closes.” He added that major legislation has historically not moved in the lead-up to the midterm elections due to lawmakers campaigning.

Many Senate lawmakers have been pushing for the chamber to pass the bill after the House passed its version, called the CLARITY Act, last year.

The Senate Agriculture and Banking Committees have passed versions of the bill, and it now needs at least 60 votes on the Senate floor to pass without prolonged debate.

“For a 60-vote bill that still needs floor debate, an amendment process, reconciliation with the Senate Agriculture text, and then House action on the changes, Majority Leader [John] Thune realistically needs to schedule floor time at some point in July,” Thorn said.

“Anything later and the procedural steps do not fit before the recess,” he added.

Source: Alex Thorn

Thorn said another reason Galaxy lowered its odds is that no information shows that the bill, or negotiations around it, have advanced, and provisions around ethics and illicit finance are a sticking point that have not yet been resolved.

He added that Galaxy would revise its odds if Senate leaders committed to passing the bill next month and that provisions to get lawmakers on side are finalized.

Galaxy’s latest odds came after analysts at JPMorgan on Wednesday said they see less than a 50% chance that the CLARITY Act passes this year, similarly citing a tightening congressional calendar ahead of the elections.

Meanwhile, Bitwise investment chief Matt Hougan said on Tuesday that his view of the bill passing this year is “less optimistic,” and that “D.C. insiders” he spoke with put the odds of its passage between 5% and 30%.

Senator Cynthia Lummis, the chair of the Senate Banking Subcommittee on Digital Assets, has escalated her calls for the Senate to pass the bill, having made at least 15 posts on X about the legislation so far in June.

“The Clarity Act passed committee. The floor is next. We did not come this far to quit at the 5 yard line,” she posted on Sunday.

Lummis told CNBC on Wednesday that lawmakers working on the bill are addressing issues, including around ethics and illicit finance, that could see it lose support on a floor vote.

Magazine: Will the CLARITY Act be good — or bad — for DeFi?

Bitcoin price recovered above $62,000 on Monday after last week’s selloff pushed the asset to about $59,100. 

The rebound briefly carried BTC near $64,200 before sellers returned, leaving the market between long-term support and its first recovery barrier.

At the time of writing, Bitcoin traded near $63,000, up 1.39% over 24 hours. Its daily range stood between $61,206 and $63,739, while the seven-day loss remained 14.06%. Buyers have slowed the decline, but they have not reversed the broader weekly trend. ETF flows and futures positioning also remain important tests for the rebound.

Bitcoin price holds the 200-week moving average

Bitcoin closed the week above its 200-week simple moving average near $62,800 after sweeping the February low, according to crypto analyst Crypto Rover. Traders follow this average because it tracks Bitcoin’s long-term trend. 

Holding above it could support another test of $64,000 to $64,200. A daily close below the average would return attention to $60,000 and the recent $59,100 low.

The June decline followed several waves of macro pressure. Higher inflation weakened expectations for easier monetary policy in May. Strong U.S. employment data then added another setback. 

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The economy created 172,000 jobs in May, compared with forecasts of 85,000, while unemployment stayed at 4.3%. As previously reported by crypto.news, Bitcoin’s break below $60,000 came as total crypto liquidations passed $1.7 billion within 24 hours.

Oversold RSI meets a still-bearish MACD setup

Bitcoin’s 14-day relative strength index stands at 26.43, below the 30 oversold threshold and its RSI moving average of 28.60. The reading shows that selling became stretched, which can support a relief bounce without confirming a lasting bottom. According to analyst Crypto Rover, the Fear and Greed Index has also fallen to 8, placing sentiment in “extreme fear.”

The Wolf of All Streets trader Scott Melker said Bitcoin may be forming a weekly bullish divergence from oversold RSI. “Need this week to close with a clear elbow up on price and RSI,” he wrote. The signal remains unconfirmed because price and momentum must turn higher together. 

Bitcoin’s MACD line sits near -4,019.58, below the signal line at -2,951.83, while the histogram remains negative at -1,067.75. Rising selling volume supports the bearish momentum reading and shows that sellers remain active despite the rebound.

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Trump-Iran headlines keep Bitcoin traders cautious

Bitcoin’s move toward $64,000 followed comments from U.S. President Donald Trump about a possible agreement with Iran. Trump said the parties were “very close” to a deal and claimed Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu did not control the process, according to Reuters. Traders initially treated the remarks as a possible reduction in geopolitical risk, helping stocks and cryptocurrencies recover from their late-week lows.

Events on June 8 weakened that optimism. Israel struck military targets and a petrochemical site in Iran after Tehran fired missiles toward Israel. Trump maintained that the attacks would not derail talks, but the renewed exchange left the agreement uncertain. 

Brent oil rose above $96 per barrel as prices gained more than 3%. Higher energy costs could keep inflation and interest-rate concerns active for Bitcoin. The market may therefore remain sensitive to each new military or diplomatic update.

Bitcoin support levels place $55,000 next in focus

Analyst Ali Martinez listed the 200-week average at $62,800, the 300-week average at $55,000 and the 400-week average near $42,500. These levels form a long-term support ladder rather than fixed targets. 

For anyone planning to dollar-cost average into Bitcoin $BTC ahead of the next bull market, these are the levels I’m tracking:

• 200W SMA: $62,800
• 300W SMA: $55,000
• 400W SMA: $42,500 pic.twitter.com/ole0OsEl9o

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— Ali Charts (@alicharts) June 8, 2026

Bitcoin must first defend $62,800 and $60,000 before the lower averages become active tests. The $55,000 area also matches a long-running trendline tracked by Crypto Patel, making it the next broad support zone if the recent low fails.

Calls for $42,500 or $35,000 remain conditional bearish cases rather than immediate forecasts. Bitcoin would need to lose the 200-week average, the $60,000 level, the $59,100 low and the $55,000 region before those levels gain weight. That sequence gives traders several areas to assess before treating a deeper fall as the main path.

Derivatives data adds another risk. Crypto.news reported that open interest rose while Bitcoin’s price fell, showing that traders added leverage during weakness. That setup can produce a short squeeze if BTC clears $64,200, or another long squeeze if the price falls below $60,000. A firm close above $64,200 would strengthen the recovery and support the bullish RSI case.

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For now, $62,800 remains the main dividing line. Holding it would keep $64,200 within reach and give buyers time to build a base. Failure to hold the 200-week average would place $60,000, $59,100 and $55,000 back in focus, while the bearish MACD would remain the stronger trend signal.

Disclosure: This article does not represent investment advice. The content and materials featured on this page are for educational purposes only.

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PiggyBank has closed a hedge tied to LAB after sharp price swings and deeply negative funding rates made the trade too costly to maintain. 

The DeFi yield protocol said the move will reduce the net asset value of several vaults, including an estimated 15% drawdown for its USDC product.

The disclosure drew fresh questions about how PiggyBank used depositor capital and measured risk. On-chain investigator ZachXBT said the protocol had lost user assets by “gambling on blatant scam coins,” while PiggyBank said it acted before the position crossed its risk limits.

PiggyBank closes LAB short after funding pressure

PiggyBank said it opened the position about one month earlier with $100,000, equal to roughly 2% of its portfolio at that time. The strategy involved buying locked LAB tokens at a discount through an over-the-counter desk and shorting LAB perpetual contracts to offset price risk.

The protocol said LAB then faced “violent manipulation,” thin liquidity and deeply negative funding rates. Those conditions raised the cost of keeping the short open. PiggyBank said maintaining the hedge had become “economically irrational,” so it closed the short to limit further losses.

USDC vault faces the largest NAV drawdown

PiggyBank valued its locked LAB position at about $1.35 million using current prices. However, the protocol removed that holding from its net asset value calculation because the tokens cannot yet be sold. The first unlock is scheduled for August 14.

As a result, PiggyBank expects its USDC vault to show an estimated 15% drawdown. SPYx could record a 12% decline, while JitoSOL could fall 9%. These figures reflect the accounting treatment announced by the protocol and may change when the locked LAB tokens begin unlocking.

ZachXBT questions LAB exposure and risk controls

ZachXBT criticized the trade and questioned why user funds gained exposure to LAB. His response followed earlier claims about the token’s ownership and trading activity. As previously reported by crypto.news, he alleged in May that LAB-linked insiders controlled more than 95% of supply and had hidden key distribution details.

Those claims remain allegations, and the available PiggyBank statement did not address LAB’s token distribution. It focused on the hedge, funding costs and the decision to exclude locked tokens from NAV. PiggyBank also did not announce compensation or explain whether users can withdraw at the revised values.

Detailed PiggyBank report remains pending

PiggyBank said it will publish a detailed report with its next steps. The team has not yet released that report publicly. The coming update may provide trade records, risk thresholds, loss calculations and plans for the August unlock.

Until then, users have limited information on the final recovery value of the LAB position. The locked tokens could regain value before release, but they could also trade lower. PiggyBank’s next report will determine how the protocol records future changes and manages the affected vaults across its three products.

Key Takeaways

• Bitcoin’s price declined to approximately $62,900 following military exchanges between Iran and Israel that shattered a temporary ceasefire
• Asian markets experienced severe losses, with South Korea’s KOSPI plummeting 6.8% and Japan’s Nikkei declining 3%, prompting circuit breakers
• Crude oil surged more than 3% to reach $93.50 per barrel, driving Treasury yields upward and weighing on risk-sensitive investments
• The Nasdaq suffered a 4.2% decline on Friday, marking its steepest single-session loss since April 2025, driven by semiconductor and artificial intelligence sector weakness
• Bitcoin has declined approximately 14% throughout the past week, momentarily dropping beneath the $60,000 threshold

Military strikes between Iran and Israel over the weekend dismantled a ceasefire that had temporarily stabilized energy markets. The resurgence of hostilities created turbulence across international financial systems on Monday.

Bitcoin’s value retreated to approximately $62,900 by 4:00 UTC on Monday. This represents a decline from Sunday’s peak of $63,776, based on CoinDesk market data.

West Texas Intermediate crude oil futures climbed more than 3% to $93.50 in the aftermath of the military action. Escalating oil prices intensify inflation concerns and elevate Treasury yields.

Elevated Treasury yields generally strengthen dollar demand. This dynamic typically creates downward pressure on speculative assets including digital currencies.

U.S. President Donald Trump advocated for de-escalation following the strikes. He informed Axios that he had spoken with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, urging him to avoid further military response.

Notwithstanding Trump’s request, Israel conducted strikes against Iranian military installations on Sunday evening. These operations were executed in retaliation to earlier Iranian missile launches.

Asian Stock Markets Experience Sharp Declines

Asian equity indices suffered significant losses on Monday. South Korea’s KOSPI index plunged 6.8%, activating an automatic trading suspension. Japan’s Nikkei index declined more than 3%.

The widespread selloff mirrored heightened risk aversion throughout global financial systems. Market participants shifted capital away from equities and other higher-volatility instruments.

U.S. Equities Already Facing Downward Momentum

U.S. stock index futures showed mixed performance early Monday. S&P 500 futures remained unchanged at 7,397.25 points, while Dow Jones futures decreased 0.4%. Nasdaq 100 futures registered a modest 0.2% gain.

These movements followed substantial declines on Wall Street from Friday’s session. The Nasdaq Composite tumbled 4.2% to close at 25,709.43 points, representing its most severe single-day decline since April 2025.

The S&P 500 retreated 2.6% to settle at 7,383.74 points. The Dow Jones Industrial Average decreased 1.4% to finish at 50,866.78 points.

Semiconductor stocks experienced the most pronounced losses. Nvidia declined more than 6% on Friday as market participants took profits following a recent artificial intelligence-fueled surge.

Friday’s market weakness was additionally influenced by robust U.S. employment figures. Stronger-than-anticipated payroll data heightened speculation that the Federal Reserve might maintain elevated interest rates for an extended period.

Bitcoin Confronts Multiple Challenges

Bitcoin was experiencing downward pressure even prior to the weekend’s geopolitical escalation. Prices contracted nearly 14% during the previous week, temporarily falling below $60,000.

Contributing elements included capital withdrawals from spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds, investment rotation toward AI equities, and Strategy’s recent Bitcoin liquidation.

Market volatility is anticipated to persist throughout the week. Forthcoming U.S. inflation reports and significant initial public offerings, including SpaceX and Anthropic, may further influence market liquidity conditions.

The weekend’s geopolitical developments have compromised advancement toward a potential U.S.-Iran diplomatic agreement. Tehran has indicated that a Lebanon ceasefire must precede any comprehensive settlement.

Securitize, a leading platform for tokenizing real-world assets, is one step closer to a public listing after the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission approved a Form S-4 registration statement tied to a Cantor Equity Partners II SPAC merger. The move clears the path for a shareholder vote on June 29, with a potential NYSE listing under the name Securitize Corp, ticker SECZ, should the deal pass.

CEO Carlos Domingo framed the development as a meaningful milestone for both Securitize and the broader push toward institutional adoption of tokenization. “This marks another important milestone for Securitize and for the broader institutional adoption of tokenization,” he said. The company currently reports roughly $4 billion in assets under management and has partnered with prominent asset managers to offer tokenized funds, including Apollo, BlackRock, BNY Mellon, and VanEck. In the first quarter, Securitize posted revenue of $19.5 million, up about 39% from a year earlier.

Beyond its SPAC trajectory, Securitize has already been advancing ties with traditional finance. The New York Stock Exchange signed a memorandum of understanding with Securitize in March as part of a broader initiative to explore blockchain-based stock trading infrastructure for Wall Street.

Securitize is the largest tokenization platform by market share. Source: RWA.xyz

Tokenized real-world assets reach new highs as market matures

Looking at the broader market, the on-chain value of tokenized real-world assets has surged in the past year, signaling growing institutional interest even in a broader crypto bear market. Data from RWA.xyz show total on-chain RWA value rose to a record $32 billion in May, up roughly 220% over the previous 12 months, excluding stablecoins. The composition of this on-chain wealth remains heavily skewed toward government securities and traditional metals and commodities.

According to the same data, tokenized U.S. Treasuries account for about half of on-chain assets, while tokenized commodities represent around 16%. Tokenized stocks remain a smaller slice, at roughly 4.8% or about $1.5 billion. The Ethereum ecosystem and various layer-2 networks continue to dominate the technical backbone of these tokenization efforts, collectively handling more than 60% of activity.

The RWA push has also been reflected in the naming and leadership of the sector. Securitize stands out as the largest tokenization platform by market share, underscoring the central role that established platforms play in driving liquidity and standardization for these assets.

What the SPAC path could mean for investors and the market

If the June 29 vote clears, Securitize would join a growing set of crypto-finance and tokenization platforms that have pursued public-market access through SPAC mergers. The potential NYSE listing would not only validate Securitize’s business model but could also signal a broader appetite among traditional investors for exposure to tokenized RWAs. The company’s existing relationships with major asset managers, combined with tangible revenue growth and a sizeable AUM base, provide a concrete basis for investor interest in a tokenization-focused public company.

For players in the space, the development highlights several trends: the continued convergence of traditional finance and blockchain-based infrastructure; the pursuit of regulated, compliant platforms to manage tokenized assets; and the ongoing effort to quantify and improve liquidity for RWAs across asset classes. Yet the picture remains nuanced. While the on-chain RWA market has expanded rapidly, tokenized stocks remain a relatively small segment, and regulatory clarity surrounding digital assets continues to evolve.

As Securitize moves toward a shareholder vote and potential exchange listing, market watchers will be watching not only the outcome of the SPAC merger but also how the company scales its technology and governance to support a broader set of investors and asset types. The coming months should reveal how Wall Street’s embrace of tokenization translates into practical, tradable markets for real-world assets.

Readers should watch for updates from the June 29 vote, any subsequent disclosures from the merged entity, and evolving regulatory guidance that could shape the pace and scope of on-chain asset tokenization across the broader market.

Michael Saylor’s Strategy has seen JPMorgan turn cautious on digital assets, with the bank warning that the company may need to rebuild its $ reserves as annual dividend obligations reach about $1.7 billion.

According to a Friday report from JPMorgan analysts led by Managing Director Nikolaos Panigirtzoglou, investor concerns increased after Strategy sold 32 Bitcoin between May 26 and May 31, even though the bank described the transaction as symbolic and voluntary.

The analysts said the sale appeared intended to demonstrate flexibility and commitment to preferred stockholders. Even so, they argued that the move raised questions about how Strategy plans to fund future dividend payments without relying on its Bitcoin holdings.

JPMorgan estimated that Strategy’s remaining dollar reserves cover only about 6.3 months of dividend payments. Strategy had established a $1.44 billion reserve in December to support preferred stock dividends and service interest payments on outstanding debt.

In the report, the analysts said restoring confidence may require Strategy to replenish those reserves, reducing concerns that additional Bitcoin sales could be needed to meet future obligations.

Hours after those concerns surfaced, Strategy co-founder and Executive Chairman Michael Saylor hinted at another Bitcoin purchase, posting on X that it was “a good time to add more dots.”

Strategy currently holds 843,706 Bitcoin acquired at an average price of $75,699. JPMorgan estimated the position represents an unrealized loss of roughly $11.5 billion at current market prices.

Bitcoin buying expected to continue

Despite concerns about reserves, JPMorgan said it still expects Strategy to remain an active Bitcoin buyer.

Based on the company’s acquisition pace so far this year, the analysts projected around $32 billion in Bitcoin purchases during 2026, up from approximately $22 billion in both 2024 and 2025. The estimate was revised higher from the bank’s previous forecast of $30 billion issued last month.

Recent debate over Strategy’s funding model has also drawn responses from industry figures. Earlier this month, BTCTOP CEO Jiang Zhuoer said he does not expect Strategy to become a significant net seller of Bitcoin even during a severe market decline.

In comments posted on X, Jiang argued that Strategy’s reputation as a long-term Bitcoin holder carries substantial value and that large-scale sales would damage the company’s public image. He also said a drop in Bitcoin to $30,000 would raise Strategy’s leverage ratio from roughly 5% to around 10%, which he described as manageable.

Jiang further suggested that Strategy could sell older, lower-cost Bitcoin to realize accounting gains and help cover STRC dividend obligations while continuing to acquire Bitcoin through new capital raised from investors.

Those comments contrasted with warnings previously raised by Grayscale, which said weakness in both MSTR shares and STRC preferred stock could make fundraising more difficult and increase pressure on the company’s financing model.

JPMorgan cuts confidence in crypto outlook

Elsewhere in its latest outlook, JPMorgan lowered its expectations for crypto market developments that it previously viewed as supportive for digital assets.

The analysts now assign less than a 50% probability that the U.S. crypto market structure legislation, known as the CLARITY Act, will pass this year. Earlier this week, JPMorgan said the bill faces a narrowing legislative window as midterm elections approach and debates over stablecoin yield provisions continue.

A positive second half for digital assets would depend partly on clarity around Strategy’s dividend funding plans and progress on market structure legislation, according to the bank.

JPMorgan’s latest stance contrasts with its February outlook, when the analysts said they were overweight and positive on digital assets for 2026 because they expected institutional investors to drive stronger inflows into the sector.

The bank also pointed to weaker capital entering crypto markets this year. JPMorgan estimates digital asset inflows at roughly $22 billion year to date, which translates to an annualized pace of about $52 billion, nearly half the level recorded in 2025. The calculation includes crypto fund flows, CME futures positioning, venture capital fundraising and corporate treasury purchases such as Strategy’s Bitcoin acquisitions.

Bitcoin’s production cost also remains an important metric in the bank’s analysis. JPMorgan said its central estimate fell from $90,000 at the start of the year to $77,000 before recovering to about $87,000 as mining conditions changed. Historically, the bank noted, production cost has often acted as a support level for Bitcoin prices.

Even after adopting a more cautious outlook, JPMorgan said the current pessimism across crypto markets could become a bullish contrarian signal if market conditions improve later in the year.

Key Takeaways

• XRP currently trades at $1.12, registering a 1.82% increase over the past 24 hours alongside a $69.45 billion market capitalization
• The digital asset successfully breached a downward trend line at $1.10 and surpassed the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement threshold
• Critical resistance zones are positioned at $1.1720 and $1.2080 — breaking through $1.2080 may trigger a rally toward $1.2450
• Should bullish momentum falter near $1.1740, downside targets include $1.1250, $1.110, and $1.050
• Technical analyst Ali Charts identifies $0.90 as a potentially robust accumulation zone for long-term investors

XRP has successfully reclaimed territory above the psychologically important $1 level following recent bearish pressure, currently trading at $1.12. The cryptocurrency has recorded a daily increase of 1.82%, accompanied by $2.93 billion in trading volume and maintaining a market capitalization of $69.45 billion.

The upward movement initiated after XRP maintained critical support above the $1.050 threshold. Following this consolidation, market participants drove the price beyond $1.10 and subsequently through $1.120, eliminating a descending trend line that had previously functioned as resistance on the 60-minute timeframe.

The token has also moved past the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement level calculated from the decline between the $1.3640 peak and the $1.052 bottom. Current price action shows XRP trading comfortably above its 100-hour Simple Moving Average.

Market analyst Ali Charts shared insights on X, highlighting his close monitoring of the $0.90 price zone for XRP. According to his analysis, should the asset retrace to that level, it could present an attractive entry point for those with longer investment horizons.

Critical Resistance Zones Ahead

The immediate obstacle facing XRP bulls stands at $1.1720. Successfully clearing this barrier would establish a pathway toward $1.2080, a level that corresponds with the 50% Fibonacci retracement point. Beyond this threshold, subsequent targets emerge at $1.2150, $1.220, and ultimately $1.2450.

Potential Bearish Scenarios

If XRP encounters resistance near $1.1740 and cannot sustain upward momentum, a retracement becomes likely. The first line of defense appears at $1.1250, with additional support at $1.110. A breakdown beneath $1.110 could accelerate selling toward $1.080, potentially extending to the $1.050 region.

The Relative Strength Index currently reads 25.40, remaining within oversold conditions, though the recent uptick suggests diminishing selling pressure. The MACD indicator continues below its signal line at -0.0700 compared to -0.0476, indicating persistent short-term bearish momentum.

On June 7, analyst Crypto Patel observed that XRP currently trades approximately 37,000% above its 2017 lows. He disclosed his accumulation strategy targets the $1.00 to $0.60 range, suggesting that if XRP eventually reaches $10–$20 in upcoming market cycles, present price levels may appear as favorable entry points retrospectively.

The MACD histogram value of -0.0224 confirms that bearish forces maintain control, and a bullish shift would require a positive MACD crossover to signal definitively changing momentum dynamics.