Politics
Lebanese ministers warn of a dangerous next 48 hours after pager attacks
Lebanon’s leadership warned that the risk of further violence and escalation is extremely high following two days of attacks involving exploding communications devices across the country.
The next 48 hours, ministers told CNBC Thursday, will be particularly dangerous.
On Tuesday and Wednesday, thousands of communications devices — including pagers and two-way radios — used by members of Iran-backed Lebanese militant group Hezbollah exploded in an apparent widespread act of sabotage, killing at least 37 people and injuring at least 3,000 more.
Hezbollah called the act an “Israeli aggression”; Israel, meanwhile, has not commented on the blasts. Iran’s ambassador to Lebanon, Mojtaba Amani, was among those injured, while a son of a Hezbollah member of parliament was killed in the attack. Children were also among those killed.
“It’s definitely a very serious escalation. I don’t see any act of escalation that will not lead to provocation, and that is what we fear most, because what happened yesterday will only trigger more escalation into the conflict,” Lebanon’s Minister of Economy Amin Salam told CNBC’s Dan Murphy on Thursday.
“This will be a really, very, very dangerous … 48 hours that this country will witness to see how the reaction will be.”
Hezbollah, the Shia organization that also dominates a large swathe of Lebanon’s politics, is already engaged in near-daily exchanges of fire with Israel to its south. The group has now vowed retaliation, raising fears of all-out war in a region already ravaged by conflict.
Hezbollah has launched thousands of rockets into Israel in the nearly 12 months since the latter began its war against Palestinian militant group Hamas in Gaza in October last year, with Israeli retaliatory fire killing hundreds of Hezbollah fighters and scores of Lebanese civilians. Tens of thousands of people on both the Lebanese and Israeli sides of the border have been evacuated from their homes.
‘Unparalleled kind of unification’
The attacks, Salam said, managed to unify many Lebanese behind Hezbollah, despite many in the country normally being opposed to the group.
“It created a massive, massive reaction, even with people in Lebanon that were against Hezbollah, now they are taking a stand more with Hezbollah,” the minister said.
“So the provocation turned from one entity in Lebanon into the entire country. Yesterday, we witnessed an unparalleled kind of unification among Lebanese political parties towards what happened.”
“I think yesterday broke all rules, all borders,” Salam added. “It went beyond because in Lebanon, this is considered, you know, an act of terror … That’s why I’m terribly concerned that this will lead to further violence, and this will definitely escalate the situation.”
Lebanese army soldiers stand guard near a hospital (not pictured) in Beirut on September 17, 2024, after explosions hit locations in several Hezbollah strongholds around Lebanon amid ongoing cross-border tensions between Israel and Hezbollah fighters.
Anwar Amro | Afp | Getty Images
CNBC also spoke to Lebanon’s Health Minister Firas Abiad, who said the attacks and the subsequent floods of injured casualties were a shock to the country’s hospital system.
“We had around 2,800 patients who presented to the emergency rooms, which eventually we had 12 fatalities,” after the first wave of device explosions, Abiad said. “We had almost 300 patients in critical conditions, and almost 450 patients who required operations for eye injuries, hand injuries, amputations … There were more than 90 hospitals that were involved in receiving patients.”
The attacks are a blow to Lebanon’s already fragile infrastructure, which suffers daily power cuts, and its economy, which is one of the most indebted in the world and has undergone a series of crises in recent years.
“We are working in a low resource environment,” Abiad said. “If there is a major escalation, it will put a major stress on the health system. There is no questioning about that.”
A Lebanese army soldier gestures to an ambulance rushing wounded people to a hospital in Beirut on September 17, 2024, after explosions hit locations in several Hezbollah strongholds around Lebanon amid ongoing cross-border tensions between Israel and Hezbollah fighters.
Anwar Amro | AFP | Getty Images
U.S. officials are reportedly scrambling to find a diplomatic solution that avoids an all-out war, as Israel moves more of its troops and military hardware further north to the Lebanon border area. Just hours before the first wave of devices — pagers — began exploding, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu vowed to return Israel’s northern residents, who were evacuated last year, back to their homes.
And on Wednesday, Israeli Defense Minister Yoav Gallant said Israel’s focus has moved to its northern front, starting a “new phase” of the war. The Times of Israel reported earlier that day that the Israel Defense Force’s 98th Division was being deployed to northern Israel, after months of fighting in the Gaza Strip.
“The position of the Lebanese government has been very clear from day one that Lebanon does not want war … we’ve believed that a diplomatic solution is the best option” Abiad said.
“But unfortunately, the escalation that we have seen in the last two days … I’m not sure that this is going to help us reach that diplomatic solution.”
Politics
Why Britain can’t just return migrants to France
Ahead of the start of the party’s conference, Reform UK’s MPs have been repeating their claim that migrants who are intercepted while crossing the English Channel can just be taken back to France.
It’s part of the party’s four point plan to “stop the boats”.
Both the party’s leader Nigel Farage and party chairman Richard Tice have claimed that the UK is legally entitled to do this.
But BBC Verify has found no evidence that this is the case.
What did they say?
Earlier this month, Richard Tice tweeted: “Starmer needs to explain why he does not have leadership & courage to use 1982 UN Convention of Law at Sea to pick up & take back”.
On 19 September, Nigel Farage told BBC Radio Kent that part of Reform’s plan for migrants crossing the Channel in small boats would be to “take them back to France”.
In June, he said on Question Time: “We’ll pick them up in the Channel and take them back” to France.
He said he would use the Royal Marines to do this, if necessary.
But it is not clear how Reform could do this without breaching international law.
What does the law say?
According to the United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea (UNCLOS) and the International Convention on Maritime Search and Rescue (SAR Convention), states are allowed to pick people up from boats if they are “found at sea in danger of being lost“.
But these laws do not allow them to be taken to another state without that country agreeing.
In fact, Article 19 of UNCLOS says that if a “foreign ship” enters another country’s territorial waters it will “be considered to be prejudicial to the peace” if “it engages in the loading or unloading of any… person contrary to the immigration laws” of that country.
BBC Verify spoke to two experts in maritime law.
James M. Turner KC, a shipping lawyer at Quadrant Chambers, told us: “The French would have to grant express permission for UK vessels to carry rescued people through their territorial waters and to leave them ashore in France”.
Ainhoa Campàs Velasco, a maritime law expert from the University of Southampton, said migrants could not be returned to French shores, “unilaterally, and without prior agreement with France”.
There is no such agreement between the UK and France.
The two countries agreed a joint action plan in 2019, which does provide for cooperation, but it does not allow one country to bring people rescued in the English Channel to the other country’s ports.
Richard Tice has repeatedly claimed that he had been advised it would be legal, but we have had no response to requests to see that advice.
We asked both the Home Office and the French authorities whether the UK would be legally entitled to pick people up and return them to France, but they would not comment.
There was one occasion in July when a British Border Force vessel was called to assist a French search and rescue operation off the coast of Gravelines in northern France.
The British vessel, together with the French ship involved, both took the people they had rescued Calais.
Prime Minister Keir Starmer stressed that had been an operational decision taken at the time and was not a change of policy.
In 2021, the UK government considered turning back small boats intercepted in the English Channel but the plan never went ahead.
Is Belgium doing this?
On 3 September, Richard Tice said about his policy of taking people intercepted in small boats straight back to France: “We know it’s legal because the Belgian authorities have done it.”
BBC Verify spoke to the Belgian police when the claim was first made in May, and they confirmed that they have intercepted small boats, treating them “as a rescue operation”.
But they said these boats very rarely cross to the UK from the Belgian coast because of the distance to the UK and strong currents which make the crossing very dangerous.
We put the claim that the Belgian authorities have taken migrants back to France to the Federal Police in Belgium and they told us “this is not correct”.
Politics
Unite to push for winter fuel payments vote at Labour conference
Unite, one of Labour’s trade union backers, will try to force a vote on reversing the government’s cuts to the winter fuel allowance at the party’s conference in Liverpool.
The union has submitted a motion calling for “a vision where pensioners are not the first to face a new wave of cuts”.
It also urges the government to introduce a wealth tax and to end self-imposed rules which prevent borrowing to invest.
Despite criticism from opposition parties and unease among his own MPs, Prime Minister Sir Keir Starmer has defended his cut in winter fuel payments, saying “tough decisions” are needed “to stabilise the economy”.
He has also said that the impact on the 10 million pensioners losing out will be softened by a 4% increase in the state pension, due next April.
From this autumn, older people in England and Wales not on pension credit or other means-tested benefits will not get the payments, worth between £100 – £300.
Unite’s motion says that “workers and communities voted for change – a better future, not just better management and not cuts to the winter fuel allowance”.
It adds that the country should not “turn back to failed austerity”.
Mick Whelan, head of the train drivers’ Aslef union and chair of the group of Labour-backing unions said he would vote against the cut.
Speaking to Political Thinking with Nick Robinson, he said the unions would be asking the government to “change their minds”.
Asked about the relationship between unions and the government, he said: “There’ll be times when we’ll be applauding… and there’ll be other times where, as tradition, we’ll be firm but critical friends.”
Unite is understood to be confident that its motion will be put to a vote at Labour’s annual conference, which opens in Liverpool on Sunday 22 September.
Under conference rules, delegates get to vote for the topics they want to discuss. Members of the Conference Arrangements Committee, delegates and party staff then agree the wording of a final motion to be voted on.
Any vote would be non-binding, but a result that criticises government policy could embarrass the party leadership.
Unite traditionally backs Labour, but has been very critical of Sir Keir’s leadership and last year its general secretary, Sharon Graham, warned the party there were “no blank cheques”.
In 2019, when Jeremy Corbyn was leader, the union donated £3m to Labour. This year it did not give anything to the central party’s campaign.
The union also refused to endorse the party’s election manifesto, saying it did not go far enough on protecting workers’ rights, and jobs in the oil and gas industry.
Labour’s annual conference will be its first since the party’s landslide victory in July’s general election.
Politics
Trump says Fed’s rate cut was ‘political move’
Republican presidential nominee and former U.S. President Donald Trump holds a rally at Nassau Veterans Memorial Coliseum, in Uniondale, New York, U.S., September 18, 2024.
Brendan Mcdermid | Reuters
Republican presidential candidate Donald Trump said on Thursday the U.S. Federal Reserve’s decision to cut interest rates by half of a percentage point was “a political move.”
“It really is a political move. Most people thought it was going to be half of that number, which probably would have been the right thing to do,” Trump said in an interview with Newsmax.
The Federal Reserve on Wednesday kicked off what is expected to be a series of interest rate cuts with an unusually large half-percentage-point reduction.
Trump said last month that U.S. presidents should have a say over decisions made by the Federal Reserve.
The Fed chair and the other six members of its board of governors are nominated by the president, subject to confirmation by the Senate. The Fed enjoys substantial operational independence to make policy decisions that wield tremendous influence over the direction of the world’s largest economy and global asset markets.
Politics
Sue Gray’s salary isn’t the problem – it’s the backstage power struggle Starmer cannot afford | Simon Jenkins
The most remarkable feature of the Sue Gray saga is not how much the Downing Street chief of staff earns, but how little Britain’s prime minister does. Keir Starmer gets just £166,786, which is about £3,000 less than Gray. But then she gets less than many permanent secretaries, not to mention the consultants and lawyers Whitehall is crawling with these days. Besides, as we are tired of hearing, Starmer gets dazzling benefits in kind.
A second feature of the saga is its mess. Just 12 weeks into the rosy dawn of a new Labour era, Downing Street is enmeshed in a spat more typical of a regime on its last legs. Starmer has spent his time in office telling Britons they face a shambles, requiring a clampdown on public spending. The new army of special advisers – approximately 70-strong – is duly being paid a relative pittance, but one that has been fixed by a boss who decided to take a thumping pay rise. To put it mildly, this suggests poor political judgment. As one insider joked, Gray is the only pensioner likely to do better under Labour.
Fixing the machinery of Downing Street is the first crucial job of a new prime minister. Starmer has hit the ground stumbling. It is customary for those closest to the leader’s ear to be a circle of trusted friends ready to act as his alter ego. This was true back in the days of Thatcher and certainly of Tony Blair. When Blair came to power, his senior aide Jonathan Powell said to expect “a change from a feudal system of barons to a more Napoleonic system”. What he meant was a downgrading of the traditional civil service hierarchy, one of permanent secretaries with the cabinet secretary at their head. Instead, government was conducted more informally, from “the sofa”, as Kenneth Clarke dismissively described it.
This had benefits. Under Thatcher, the civil service acted initially as a brake on change, but she eventually gathered loyalists round her and bent the system to her will. Although she still listened to advice, as when in 1988 she did a U-turn on NHS privatisation. Under Blair, media management from the sofa overwhelmed policy. Foreign Office advice on Iraq was suppressed, and Blair made his greatest mistake with the invasion of that country. Since then, the balance in Downing Street between politicians and officials has become ever more informal and sometimes fractious. It reached its nadir under Boris Johnson and his maverick aide Dominic Cummings.
A measure of the disruption was that internal pressure succeeded in evicting Cummings, but when dissent occurred under Liz Truss, it was politics that evicted the head of the Treasury, Tom Scholar. In the case of Gray, it seems that an early victim of her boisterous style will be the cabinet secretary, Simon Case. She is already reported as controlling access to security briefings, appointing close allies as civil servants and pushing her pet building projects. This may be fine if you can keep it secret, but not if those round you keep leaking.
Gray was a civil servant who became a political adviser. They are different professions. Civil servants have spent their careers working together, with Downing Street and the Cabinet Office at the peak. They are supposedly discreet suppliers of truth to power. Political advisers are rarely used to big organisations. They are mostly the beneficiaries of party patronage, thinktanks and the murky world of lobbying. Some fit in; others do not.
The most recent grit in this machine has come from the growth of the No 10 Policy Unit, staffed by special advisers. Its proclaimed purpose is to keep Whitehall to the manifesto straight and narrow. But it inevitably cuts across similar units in departments, also staffed by advisers. It was war between the two top units – and Cummings’ reported desire to have Treasury advisers dismissed – that forced Johnson’s chancellor Sajid Javid to resign. So critical is this relationship in the realm of economic policy, that Starmer’s No 10 unit has apparently been downgraded. It will reportedly be just “a point of contact” on economic policy, “more like the nervous system than the brain”. We await the outcome with interest.
It is easy to adapt Tolstoy and say that every unhappy Downing Street is unhappy in its own way. But unhappiness starts at the top. Starmer must now support Gray to the hilt. She must at least have her own colleagues loyal to her – and to her confidences. At the same time, prime ministers have clearly strayed too far in the direction of Blair’s Napoleon. Second opinions must get through to a leader making decisions, even if the civil service must ultimately obey and deliver. Dissent should not take the current form of media leaks and disloyal gossip.
There has to be virtue in a well-established architecture of public administration. So much of this has now broken down. That is why there must be a tilt back to the tradition of a formalised and articulate civil service, with the cabinet secretary at its apex. The satire Yes Minister portrayed civil servants as subjecting the ambition of ministers to pragmatic reality. It had its virtues, and the civil servants did not always win. It is worth a repeat.
Politics
Biden Fed Jay Powell meeting Oval Office
Chairman of the Federal Reserve Jerome Powell (left) meets with President Joe Biden in the Oval Office on May 31, 2022.
Saul Loeb | AFP | Getty Images
President Joe Biden on Thursday said he had “never once spoken” to Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell while he was president.
But the pair, joined by Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen, met in the Oval Office on May 31, 2022 to discuss inflation, photos and videos from the meeting show.
The president made the inaccurate claim during remarks at the Economic Club of Washington, D.C., the day after the Fed announced a decision to cut interest rates by 50 basis points.
Touting his own respect for the independence of the central bank, Biden said “By the way, I’ve never once spoken to the chairman of the Fed since I became president.”
Asked about the apparently inaccurate recollection by a reporter at Thursday’s White House press briefing, Council of Economic Advisors Chair Jared Bernstein said Biden had been referring only to discussions about interest rates.
“The president was saying that he has not spoken to Chair Powell about interest rates,” said Bernstein. “He did not pressure Powell and has never done so.”
But the error undercut Biden’s critique of Republican former President Donald Trump, who has threatened to challenge the independence of the Federal Reserve if he is elected to a second term.
“Unlike my predecessor, I respect the Federal Reserve’s independence as they pursue its mandate to bring inflation down. That independence has served the country well,” Biden said Thursday.
“It would also do enormous damage to our economy that independence was ever lost.”
Even in his 2022 Oval Office meeting with Powell, Biden stressed the importance of the Fed’s independence in addressing inflation.
“My plan to address inflation starts with a simple proposition: Respect the Fed. Respect the Fed’s independence,” Biden said at the time. “My job as president is not to not only nominate highly qualified individuals for that institution, but to give them the space they need to do their job.”
Trump, the Republican nominee for president, said in August that presidents should “have at least [a] say” about the Fed’s decisions on interest rates.
“Yeah, I feel that strongly,” Trump said at a Mar-a-Lago press conference on Aug. 8.
“I think that in my case, I made a lot of money, I was very successful, and I think I have a better instinct than, in many cases, people that would be on the Federal Reserve or the chairman.”
The Wall Street Journal reported earlier this year that Trump advisors were putting together a plan that would inject Trump into the Fed’s interest rate decision-making process, if the Republican returns to the White House in January.
Politics
With a lust for freebies and hobbled by infighting, Labour look like the Tories 2.0 | John Crace
During the last election campaign it was hard to escape the impression that, whatever his other faults, Rishi Sunak just wasn’t very good at politics. The charge sheet included getting drenched announcing the election and leaving D-day veterans on the beaches. And insisting that black was white: that he was stopping the boats, that the economy was in good shape, that the Tories were on course for victory.
Just a couple of months later, it very much feels like Keir Starmer and Labour are saying: “Hold my beer.” Keen to prove that they, too, are amateurs at the political PR game. It’s almost as if there is something about being in government that makes fools of everyone. Though few would have imagined that Labour could manage it quite so quickly. A period of grace would have been more fitting.
Take the freebies. And Keir has. The Arsenal tickets. The Taylor Swift tickets. The suits. The designer glasses. The clothes for his wife. Starmer’s big shtick was that he was going to do politics differently. The antidote to Tory corruption and scandal. A man who could be trusted. He was one of us. So why put himself in a position where you can so easily be criticised by the rightwing press?
If you want to set yourself up as a model of propriety then you can’t start making exceptions. Especially not so early on. A couple of years in and people may not notice so much. You have to be above reproach. Yes, it might be a loss not to go to the football. And you might resent having to buy a few more suits for yourself. But that all rather goes with the job. Being prime minister may be a career highlight for a politician but you have to take the downsides.
Perhaps Starmer has been too honest for his own good. Maybe he should have been more like Boris Johnson. Keir has made himself accountable by listing his freebies in detail. We know exactly where all the money went. With Boris we are largely in the dark. He took whopping gifts from all sorts of undesirables and we aren’t entirely sure of the details. Being prime minister was a licence for Boris to cash in. No one expected any different from him. He never pretended to be on the side of the angels.
Then there is the question of Sue Gray’s pay. You could say that someone should have suggested that Sue drop £4,000 in salary just for appearances. So she earned less than the prime minister. Maybe throw in a clothes allowance and an events expense account to make up the difference. No one will notice. Surely. I guess she is a tough negotiator. One of the reasons she was made chief of staff.
But all this is not really the point. The issue is why the Labour party is indulging in open feuds with itself by leaking the story in the first place. We were promised a government of service and yet it already appears to be totally dysfunctional. It’s as if Starmer has taken the Tories as his role model. How did it come to this that half of the No 10 top team hate the other half? And vice versa. Couldn’t someone have just got in a therapist? Or at the very least established a workplace culture where people talked to one another? Or – and here’s a thought – pay junior staff the proper rate?
Still, Keir isn’t entirely a slow learner. There’s a tradition that prime ministers do a round of regional radio stations on the Thursday before a party conference. But after the last two years, when Liz Truss and Sunak had an hour they would rather forget, Starmer decided to reset the format to pre-recorded outings where he hoped there would be less room for disaster. All the interviews would be released at 5pm when he hoped no one would be watching.
So it was left to the business secretary, Jonathan Reynolds, to do the morning media round. An experience he would rather forget. Reynolds comes across as a decent man but too much more of this and he will find himself Labour’s answer to Mel Stride. The minister who gets to do the rubbish jobs that no one else will. In future, on days like this, I am sure he will learn to put his phone on mute and not take calls from the No 10 comms team. It’s early days, I suppose.
On Times Radio, Aasmah Mir cut to the chase. Why did Starmer accept so many freebies? Reynolds forgot to engage his brain. It was like this, he said. Politicians get invited to events all the time and it would be rude not to go. It was the way people tried to engage with decision makers. Sure thing. That’s why it was vital for Boris Johnson to accept a freebie to Evgeny Lebedev’s party in Italy. And a Taylor Swift concert is a prerequisite for stopping the winter fuel allowance.
It very much sounded as if he was talking about the perks of the job, said Mir. Oh no, replied Reynolds. Far from it. Perish the thought. Just that politicians worked extremely hard and deserved a little downtime. Especially if they didn’t have to pay for it. The thought occurred that if Starmer was desperate to see Arsenal he could have afforded the cost of a seat with the corporates. It was just strange that all these dazzling freebies were never offered to the rest of us.
Over on Sky, Kay Burley was outraged by the size of Sue Gray’s salary. One wonders what Burley’s wedge is. I’m not sure she would get out of bed for £170,000. She would consider that an insult. But I’m sure that’s not the point. Even so, Reynolds still couldn’t think straight. Why not just say that Dominic Cummings and other Downing Street heads of staff would have been on a similar sort of salary if you allowed for inflation. The same people outraged now were not outraged then. It could just be that £170,000 is the going rate for the job and that it is the prime minister who is underpaid. A thought.
So the nonsense will continue into the Labour party conference starting this weekend. And Labour really doen’t have anyone to blame but itself. Freebies and staff pay should have been headed off ages ago. And maybe it doesn’t matter if we have a government that is bad at politics if it gets the big calls right. After all, the chances are we’ll be talking about something else in a month’s time. Head down and onwards and sideways.
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