As indicated by today’s ATR reading on the XAG/USD chart, trading activity has returned to the more normal levels seen prior to the third week of January, when:

→ silver entered a phase of exuberant growth towards its record high around the $120 mark;
→ this was followed by a dramatic collapse towards the $75 area.

The volatility indicator has now fallen back to customary levels, suggesting that supply and demand are gradually moving into balance.

Yesterday’s release of weaker US retail sales data could have served as a bullish catalyst for gold and silver, as signs of slowing economic activity ahead of key employment figures tend to increase demand for safe-haven assets. However, this did not occur, reinforcing the view that the market is stabilising.

On 2 February, when analysing the XAG/USD chart, we wrote:

“Even if silver attempts to turn higher under the current conditions of extreme oversold territory, it may encounter a strong resistance zone in the $87.5–95 range, where bears previously demonstrated clear dominance by breaking the long-term ascending channel.”

Indeed, the highlighted area not only halted the recovery impulse but also — after forming a head and shoulders reversal pattern — pushed silver down to a lower low.

Price action analysis allows for several important observations:

→ the V-shaped rebound below the psychological $70 level appears to reflect the liquidation of a cascade of buyers’ stop-loss orders, followed by a wave of buying that signals aggressive demand;
→ the bullish gap around $78 now appears to be acting as support.

In light of the above, it is reasonable to conclude that the XAG/USD market may continue developing a consolidation phase, fluctuating between two key zones:

→ resistance near $95;
→ support around $70.

For a long-term outlook on silver prices, see this article.

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Bitcoin (BTC) saw flash volatility around Wednesday’s Wall Street open as US jobs data came in well above expectations.

Key points:

• Bitcoin attempts to rescue the day’s losses on the back of stronger US nonfarm payrolls data.

• Mixed signals result in risk assets diverging in their reactions to the numbers.

• Bitcoin traders stay wary of a deeper BTC price dip to come.

Analysis: Fed interest-rate pause to “continue”

Data from TradingView tracked a BTC price spike to nearly $69,000 which quickly retraced, extending daily losses past 4% at the time of writing.

US nonfarm payrolls outperformed considerably on the day, with 130,000 jobs added in January versus the anticipated 55,000.

Strong labor-market numbers tend to imply less need to lower interest rates — typically a headwind for crypto and risk assets. At the same time, the reduced likelihood of recession creates a nuanced picture for risk-asset performance.

As such, the S&P 500 initially gained 0.5%, while the Nasdaq Composite Index fell 0.6% before both retraced their moves.

Precious metals also saw uncertain price action, with gold hitting new February highs before giving back gains to target $5,000 support.

Reacting, trading resource The Kobeissi Letter additionally referenced cooling unemployment in predicting that the Federal Reserve would hold rates steady at its March meeting.

“The unemployment rate FELL to 4.3%, below expectations of 4.4%. This was a much stronger than expected jobs report, all around the board,” it wrote in a post on X. 

“The Fed pause will continue.”

The latest data from CME Group’s FedWatch Tool put the odds of a March rate pause at over 90%.

Attention now focused on Friday’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) print for further cues as to the path of inflation.

Trader eyes BTC price “slow bleed” toward $50,000

Commenting on recent BTC price action, traders remained unimpressed and skewed toward fresh downside.

Related: BTC traders wait for $50K bottom: Five things to know in Bitcoin this week

Daan Crypto Trades brought in Fibonacci retracement levels at $64,569, $62,474 and $59,805 while eyeing the potential for a deeper retracement.

“Pretty weak showing overall after the initial bounce. Bulls failed to push higher past that $72K+ mark and instead saw price break down again,” he summarized. 

“Unless ~$68k is retaken, the fib retracement levels are the ones to watch in the short term.”

Earlier, Cointelegraph reported on $69,000 having key long-term significance, with the risk of an extended rangebound environment developing around that level now higher.

$50,000 BTC price bottom targets also persisted, with trader Jelle arguing that BTC/USD was copying 2022 bear market trajectory “closely.”

“Would see a relatively slow bleed towards the low $50ks from here – before bouncing back up; if it keeps playing out the same,” he told X followers.

“Lots of people talk about buying there. I wonder if they will if price gets there.”