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BTC trades sharply lower on Wednesday, giving up large chunk of Friday gains

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BTC trades sharply lower on Wednesday, giving up large chunk of Friday gains

After crashing throughout the week, bitcoin bottomed late last Thursday at $60,000 before a mammoth Friday rally took the price nearly 20% higher to just shy of $72,000. That bounce, however, is looking more and more like the “dead cat” type.

In mid-morning U.S. trade, bitcoin is down sharply yet again, trading just below $66,000 and down more than 4% over the past 24 hours. Ether and solana are lower by closer to 5.5% and XRP is down 3.5%.

Higher earlier in the session, U.S. stocks have returned to roughly flat on the day. Gold and silver are higher by 0.8% and 3.2%, respectively.

Earlier Wednesday, the U.S. government reported January job growth of 130,000, nearly doubling economist forecasts. The unemployment rate unexpectedly dipped to 4.3%.

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That has interest rate traders quickly retreating on any expectations for imminent Federal Reserve rate cuts. They’re now pricing in just a 6% chance of a March easing and a 23% chance for an April rate cut, according to CME FedWatch. Prior to the report, the chances of a March move were 21%, and those of an April move were 52%.

Whether rate cuts would have pulled crypto out of its bear market is arguable. After all, this sharp downside action began in 2025 as the Fed eased monetary policy at three consecutive meetings.

Interest wanes

With so many other assets across the globe in bull markets as crypto continues to falter, it appears that investor interest in crypto is disappearing.

Coinglass on Wednesday reported that bitcoin perpetual futures open interest has fallen again and now stands 51% below its October 2025 peak, “signaling a significant retreat in trader conviction and leverage.”

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“We’re seeing an ‘exit-crypto’ movement as investors grow tired,” one analyst told Bloomberg in a story about South Korean investors bailing on crypto as that country’s Kospi stock market index hits record highs.

Monthly trading volume on the Kospi was up 221% year-over-year last month, the story continued, while trading on crypto exchanges was down about 65%.

“This is a washout,” the analyst said. “Retail is exhausted and fleeing to the Kospi.”

Crypto stocks sharply lower across the board

There’s no green to be found across the entire crypto-related stock sector. Robinhood (HOOD) is lower by 12.5% after reporting a sharp decline in crypto trading revenue in the fourth quarter. That’s dragging on peer Coinbase (COIN), which is lower by 7% ahead of its earnings report scheduled for Thursday evening.

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Leading bitcoin treasury firm Strategy (MSTR) is down 4.5% and ether treasury giant Bitmine Immersion (BMNR) is off 3.8%.

Circle Financial (CRCL) is lower by 4.7%, Galaxy Digital (GLXY) by 3.2% and Bullish (BLSH) by 5.3%.

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Former Treasury Secretary warns of “vicious” fallout if U.S. Treasury demand weakens

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Former Treasury Secretary warns of “vicious” fallout if U.S. Treasury demand weakens

Former Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson has called on U.S. policymakers to prepare an emergency response plan for a potential breakdown in demand for U.S. Treasurys, warning that the consequences could be severe.

Summary

  • The Former Treasury Secretary has warned U.S. authorities to prepare an emergency plan for a potential collapse in Treasury demand.
  • Rising U.S. debt and higher yields have raised concerns about a feedback loop that could strain the financial system.
  • Heavy Treasury exposure among stablecoin issuers like Tether has added risk for crypto markets during periods of stress.

Speaking in a Bloomberg interview on Thursday, Paulson urged authorities to have a “break-the-glass” framework ready in advance, describing it as a targeted and short-term intervention designed for moments of extreme stress.

“We need an emergency break-the-glass plan, which is targeted and short-term, on the shelf, so it’s ready to go when we hit the wall,” he said. “When we hit it, it will be vicious, so we have to prepare for that eventuality.”

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Concerns around the Treasury market have been building as U.S. government debt continues to climb past $39 trillion, raising questions about long-term sustainability and investor appetite. 

Treasurys remain the foundation of global finance, serving as the benchmark against which assets such as corporate bonds, mortgages, and equities are priced. Any disruption in that market risks cascading effects across the financial system.

Economists have long warned of a potential feedback loop where rising debt levels push investors to demand higher yields, increasing borrowing costs, and increasing the fiscal deficit. A scenario where the Treasury struggles to attract sufficient buyers could leave the Federal Reserve stepping in more aggressively, effectively absorbing supply to stabilize markets.

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A breakdown in the Treasury market would not leave digital assets untouched, with both upside and downside risks coming into play.

On one side, a loss of confidence in U.S. debt or a wave of monetary expansion could drive capital toward alternative stores of value, including Bitcoin and gold. Inflation concerns and pressure on the dollar have historically strengthened the case for non-sovereign assets.

At the same time, stablecoins introduce a direct link between crypto markets and U.S. government debt. Tether, the largest stablecoin issuer, holds a significant portion of its reserves in Treasurys, including Treasury bills and overnight reverse repurchase agreements.

U.S. Treasury officials have already taken steps aimed at improving market functioning, including a large-scale debt buyback announced on Thursday.

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Authorities accepted $15 billion worth of older securities maturing between 2026 and 2028, marking the largest such operation to date. The program is designed to retire less liquid bonds and inject cash back into the system, giving investors room to reallocate capital.

Liquidity management measures like these are intended to keep trading conditions stable, though concerns around long-term demand continue to shape discussions among policymakers and market participants.

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PI steadies at $0.1770 amid core team’s mainnet upgrade plans

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A bullish PI coin in front of a monitor
A bullish PI coin in front of a monitor

Key takeaways 

  • Pi Network’s PI token holds steady at $0.1730, up 4.5% from the previous day. 
  • The Pi Core Team’s upgrade to enable smart contracts, with a deadline set for April 27, is a potential catalyst. 

Pi Network’s PI token has managed to hold steady around $0.1770 as of Friday, adding a 4.5% gain from the previous day. 

The Pi Core Team (PCT) is driving momentum with the impending upgrade to the mainnet, which will enable smart contract functionality—expected to be a key catalyst for price movement.

PI rallies ahead of the Protocol 22 upgrade

PI is up 4.5% in the last 24 hours, outperforming the broader cryptocurrency market. The rally comes after the Pi Core Team announced that April 27 is the final deadline for all mainnet nodes to complete necessary steps for remaining connected to the network, as part of the Stellar Protocol version 22 upgrade. 

While this upgrade will cause a brief 15-minute downtime during internal data transfer, it lays the groundwork for future improvements. Additionally, the full upgrade to version 26 is slated for June 22, ahead of Pi2Day on June 28.

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Will PI rally higher in the near term?

The PI/USD 4-hour chart is bearish and efficient, trading above the $0.1770 level. However, Pi Network remains in a bearish posture, with the token still trading below the 50-, 100-, and 200-day Exponential Moving Averages (EMAs). 

The immediate resistance level is marked at $0.1785, corresponding to the 50-day EMA, followed by stronger resistance at $0.1865 (100-day EMA) and $0.2334 (200-day EMA).

However, momentum indicators present mixed signals. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) at 71 is above the neutral 50 line, and is heading into the overbought region.

PI/USD 4H Chart

The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) crossing above its signal line indicates growing bullish momentum. 

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On the downside, key support is found at $0.1556, near the February 23 low, with further weakness potentially exposing $0.1310 if the market slips below this level.

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Crypto in Sustained Winter as Q1 CEX Volumes Drop

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Crypto in Sustained Winter as Q1 CEX Volumes Drop

The cryptocurrency market has entered a “sustained crypto winter,” according to CoinGecko, as spot trading volumes on centralized crypto exchanges rapidly fell over the first quarter of 2026.

Crypto market capitalization fell by more than 20% during the first quarter as “bearish momentum from late 2025 collided with global geopolitical instability,” CoinGecko said in a report on Thursday.

That caused the top 10 centralized exchanges by spot volume to record a 39% decrease in trading volume over the quarter ended in March, dropping to $2.7 trillion from $4.5 trillion in the fourth quarter of 2025.

The drop comes as the crypto market has struggled to maintain positive momentum after Bitcoin (BTC) hit a record high of more than $126,000 six months ago, as the wider market reacted to fears of an economic slowdown and uncertainty over the fallout from US-Israeli strikes on Iran in February.

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Trading volumes among the top 10 exchanges remained steady at $1 trillion a month in January and February before falling in March. Source: CoinGecko

March was the “weakest month,” according to CoinGecko, with $800 billion in trading volume, the lowest since November 2023.

CoinGecko said that the contraction in crypto markets was worsened by Kevin Warsh’s nomination as US Federal Reserve chair, which signaled “a potential hawkish shift in US monetary policy.”

Related: Three things Bitcoin must do to hold highs above $76K: Analysts

It added that daily trading activity across the crypto market saw “a significant decline” over the first quarter, with average daily trading volumes at $117.8 billion, a drop of 27% compared to the fourth quarter of 2025.

All of the top 10 spot centralized exchanges recorded declining volumes in the first quarter, CoinGecko said, with HTX, formerly Huobi, seeing “the biggest slump” quarter-on-quarter as volumes dipped 55% to $133.6 billion.

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It said that Bitcoin fell 22% over the first quarter, “continuing to underperform all assets, despite US equity indexes such as NASDAQ and S&P 500 falling -7.1% and -4.8% respectively, their worst quarterly returns since 2022.”

Big Questions: Should you sell your Bitcoin for nickels for a 43% profit?